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Tesla next 5 years, at least a 5X in value.

9,778 Views | 88 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by wayne11MB
bmks270
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John Francis Donaghy said:

I see Tesla as primarily an energy and technology company. Cars are simply an effective proving ground for their tech. I could see a future where Tesla winds down their car business, spins it off as a separate company, or sells the auto division to a traditional automaker to more fully focus on developing the tech aspects of the company for other applications.

I don't know if Tesla stock will continue to grow like crazy, level off, or drop off in the future. But anyone judging the future growth potential of the company in light competition with traditional automakers is, I think, misunderstanding Tesla's future.


What percentage of Tesla revenue is car sales?
BlueTaze
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I'm not a Tesla fan boy, and see them rapidly losing market share on EVs. It's the charging and retail infrastructure that Tesla could dominate. Like how Buckees blew up, but even bigger and more profitable.

SMM48
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They do. Which the interesting number is exports out of China.
SMM48
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Sorry bout the car troubles. It stinks. Statistically it's our time eventually.
SMM48
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80+%.
John Francis Donaghy
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bmks270 said:

John Francis Donaghy said:

I see Tesla as primarily an energy and technology company. Cars are simply an effective proving ground for their tech. I could see a future where Tesla winds down their car business, spins it off as a separate company, or sells the auto division to a traditional automaker to more fully focus on developing the tech aspects of the company for other applications.

I don't know if Tesla stock will continue to grow like crazy, level off, or drop off in the future. But anyone judging the future growth potential of the company in light competition with traditional automakers is, I think, misunderstanding Tesla's future.


What percentage of Tesla revenue is car sales?
Last I've seen it's at about 86% and generally falling year over year as other sectors of the company get off the ground and outpace the automotive sales sector in growth rate. But your question is shortsighted. There's nothing about making cars that makes Tesla unique. What makes Tesla unique is the underlying technology that powers their cars. There's no rule that says they have to be their own manufacturer forever.

Cummins makes great diesel engines, but they don't build trucks. Nothing says Tesla couldn't sell the manufacturing arm to GM or Ford, and partner with one or both to license their technology to the more traditional manufacturers. Maybe one day you'll be buying Ford and/or GM EV's that are "Powered by Tesla".

IMO Tesla could make bank licensing their tech on a much larger scale to traditional automakers than they could ever get while limited to manufacturing their own brand, and streamline the company by dumping massive manufacturing overhead costs, allowing the company to focus on improving the technology that sets them apart, and expanding into new markets and applications outside the auto sector, thereby further increasing growth potential.

Just my humble guess on where we might see the company go in the future.But first Tesla needed to prove the concept, and they needed to prove they can do it better than anyone else. They're well on their way to doing that. Now we wave to wait and see if Musk sees mass scale manufacturing of an in-house brand as Tesla's future, or if he wants the agility to push his tech into new economic sectors to push new envelopes. Knowing what I know about Musk, I know which I'd be putting my bet on over the long term given those two options.
AggiEE
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John Francis Donaghy said:

bmks270 said:

John Francis Donaghy said:

I see Tesla as primarily an energy and technology company. Cars are simply an effective proving ground for their tech. I could see a future where Tesla winds down their car business, spins it off as a separate company, or sells the auto division to a traditional automaker to more fully focus on developing the tech aspects of the company for other applications.

I don't know if Tesla stock will continue to grow like crazy, level off, or drop off in the future. But anyone judging the future growth potential of the company in light competition with traditional automakers is, I think, misunderstanding Tesla's future.


What percentage of Tesla revenue is car sales?
Last I've seen it's at about 86% and generally falling year over year as other sectors of the company get off the ground and outpace the automotive sales sector in growth rate. But your question is shortsighted. There's nothing about making cars that makes Tesla unique. What makes Tesla unique is the underlying technology that powers their cars. There's no rule that says they have to be their own manufacturer forever.

Cummins makes great diesel engines, but they don't build trucks. Nothing says Tesla couldn't sell the manufacturing arm to GM or Ford, and partner with one or both to license their technology to the more traditional manufacturers. Maybe one day you'll be buying Ford and/or GM EV's that are "Powered by Tesla".

IMO Tesla could make bank licensing their tech on a much larger scale to traditional automakers than they could ever get while limited to manufacturing their own brand, and streamline the company by dumping massive manufacturing overhead costs, allowing the company to focus on improving the technology that sets them apart, and expanding into new markets and applications outside the auto sector, thereby further increasing growth potential.

Just my humble guess on where we might see the company go in the future.But first Tesla needed to prove the concept, and they needed to prove they can do it better than anyone else. They're well on their way to doing that. Now we wave to wait and see if Musk sees mass scale manufacturing of an in-house brand as Tesla's future, or if he wants the agility to push his tech into new economic sectors to push new envelopes. Knowing what I know about Musk, I know which I'd be putting my bet on over the long term given those two options.


There's nothing really groundbreaking about the underlying car tech in Tesla's that can't be matched or even exceeded by rivals.

Most of the high valuation hinges on a big moat of autonomous driving which, despite Musk's lofty claims, isn't anywhere near level 5 required for it to take off. And there's not a guarantee that they will have a significant advantage in that area. Lots of regulatory and technical hurdles

SMM48
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So why didn't Ford do it? They easily could have purchase a Tesla. Tore it down and copy. Or GM.

You think the best engineers want to develop trucks and SUV's.

They don't have the talent or will.

Engineering. Tesla 1. Space X 2

https://universumglobal.com/rankings/united-states-of-america/



Agvet12
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FunkyKO said:

So why didn't Ford do it? They easily could have purchase a Tesla. Tore it down and copy. Or GM.

You think the best engineers want to develop trucks and SUV's.

They don't have the talent or will.

Engineering. Tesla 1. Space X 2

https://universumglobal.com/rankings/united-states-of-america/






When there's an absolute need they will purchase Tesla / license the tech until then why take on the R&D costs?

You recently had one the worlds most reliable and largest auto makers state they won't make an all electric car, you think Tesla is going to put pace and out sell Toyota? Lol
Scimitar
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Bobaloo said:

It is trading 650 times earnings. I wish every investor the best but that is too rich for me.

This sums up my view succinctly. No way I'm buying TSLA outright at these levels.

If I'm wrong, I still allocate a portion of the overall accounts to S&P 500 index funds where DCA reigns supreme and I'll capture what I view as a "reasonable" exposure.
The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
AggiEE
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FunkyKO said:

So why didn't Ford do it? They easily could have purchase a Tesla. Tore it down and copy. Or GM.

You think the best engineers want to develop trucks and SUV's.

They don't have the talent or will.

Engineering. Tesla 1. Space X 2

https://universumglobal.com/rankings/united-states-of-america/






It's not an issue of talent. It's an issue that these legacy ICE companies have to deliver vehicles in volume today. They don't have the resources to go full-force into EV. It's a balancing act to meet the needs of today vs tomorrow.

Certain companies like VW are making a pretty big push into EVs, I certainly wouldn't write them off
CaptnCarl
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Agreed. Automobile manufacturing is a global market, and the US is not the primary consumer. The elephant in the room is the cost of Tesla's products.

Comparing Tesla to Amazon is not a good comparison. There was nothing to compare Amazon to. It was so new and unchartered with no competition. Tesla has stiff competition in manufacturing, tech, AI, batteries.
SMM48
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Really, looked under the hood of Ford F-250 lately. Or under the chassis. Nothing has changed Engineering has stalled. They are doing the least to maximize profit.

And think it through.

If they sell an EV they are not selling an ICE. and their current situation has them making less of a profit on the Ev than on the Ice. How long would your business last if profitability goes down because of a forced switch.
SMM48
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Cost is coming down. As tech scales it is deflationary.
SMM48
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They will purchase Tesla? With what?

SMM48
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Getting there. Austin and Germany plants coming online soon.
TxTarpon
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How do you think the WalMart litigation will go?
I think no one really cares about that and the Tesla name is like Apple at this point.
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03_Aggie
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FunkyKO said:

Really, looked under the hood of Ford F-250 lately. Or under the chassis. Nothing has changed Engineering has stalled. They are doing the least to maximize profit.

And think it through.

If they sell an EV they are not selling an ICE. and their current situation has them making less of a profit on the Ev than on the Ice. How long would your business last if profitability goes down because of a forced switch.


You should probably look again.
SMM48
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Which year model diesel? Going on my 4th. Who you think changes the oil? Not just talking engine.
03_Aggie
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What exactly are you talking then? Are you saying there are no differences in the design or technology between the four you've owned?
SMM48
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Yawn bro Tesla has the best talent.
Teslag
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FunkyKO said:

Yawn bro Tesla has the best talent.


What the **** does this even mean?
AggiEE
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Salute The Marines said:

FunkyKO said:

Yawn bro Tesla has the best talent.


What the **** does this even mean?


Apparently the ability to design a manufacturable car in an efficient manner with high quality is unique trait to Tesla that no other autos have experience with because Tesla hires a bunch of SV nerds
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AggiEE
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FAT SEXY said:

I hope all of the electric car hype continues.. the market and reality will make my silver holdings much more valuable because of it.


It's definitely not going away

Just like the internet was obviously the next big thing. But Cisco's valuation still made it an abysmal investment

You can like Tesla the company without thinking it's worth 3.5 trillion dollars
SMM48
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This means that everything from suspension to motor mounts.cooling /heat exchange..connectors/fasteners/hose clamps..weight..wiring harness.battery cost .Ford is so far behind the game. It's really bad. Volkswagen is even worse.

And no one yanked your chain pup. Pipe down

Actually that was uncalled for. I'm sorry.
SMM48
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And here we go with Cisco again.

Cherry picking a time horizon.

At least pick JNPR, NT, GLW, SUNW, or JDSU to have move of that doom and gloom effect
Flashdiaz
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AggiEE said:

Salute The Marines said:

FunkyKO said:

Yawn bro Tesla has the best talent.


What the **** does this even mean?


Apparently the ability to design a manufacturable car in an efficient manner with high quality is unique trait to Tesla that no other autos have experience with because Tesla hires a bunch of SV nerds
it's unique to Tesla because they started with EV in mind so everything was designed and built around it. As opposed to existing car manufactures that want to leverage their economies to scale and shoehorn the technology into it.

TombstoneTex
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Elon is a fraud... I expect Tesla to go the way of the hyperloop.
Medaggie
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I try to be unbiased when it comes to Tesla and I root for him.

I don't understand when people say Elon is a Fraud. You can call him many names and would make sense but how is he a Fraud.

I think people who hate on Tesla is protecting ICE/OIL's legacy and the jobs/$$$ that comes with it.

Ford/GM are financially in deep trouble without a clear model to get out of it similar to Sears when Amazon. They can either be Circuit City or Best buy. Either Pivot or stay with the same tired model.

I root for American Companies and Tesla creates alot of American Jobs recently rated the most American made car.

People will root for VW, Toyota before they root for Tesla. Makes no sense to me.

The guy essentially made the 1st main stream viable car company from scratch in decades. He help/primarily started Paypal, Tesla, Space X which all are multi billion dollar companies arguably the leaders in their sectors. He is the 2nd richest person.

I don't see Fraud anywhere.

I had the same debate with someone who said Elon was the worse businessman and this is the reason why Tesla will go Bankrupt. His proof was alot of "feelings" vs my hard facts.
Medaggie
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Lets not let Facts get in the way of a meaningful Tesla discussion.

According to the Tesla's most recent balance sheet as reported on February 8, 2021, total debt is at $11.69 billion, with $9.56 billion in long-term debt and $2.13 billion in current debt. Adjusting for $19.38 billion in cash-equivalents, the company has a net debt of $-7.70 billion. Market Cap 630B

Ford Motor had US$161.3b of debt, at December 2020, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$30.8b, its net debt is less, at about US$130.5b. Market Cap 57B

General Motors had US$109.7b of debt, up from US$103.0b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has US$23.9b in cash leading to net debt of about US$85.7b. Market Cap 85B

Guess which companies will go the way of HyperLoop.

Company A with 7.7B in Cash/630B market cap vs Company B 130B debt/57B market cap vs company C 85B debt/85B market cap.
Teslag
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FunkyKO said:

This means that everything from suspension to motor mounts.cooling /heat exchange..connectors/fasteners/hose clamps..weight..wiring harness.battery cost .Ford is so far behind the game. It's really bad. Volkswagen is even worse.

And no one yanked your chain pup. Pipe down

Actually that was uncalled for. I'm sorry.


Actually I was more puzzled by the comment that you havent seen a difference in 4 diesels because Tesla has the best talent
northeastag
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Medaggie said:

Lets not let Facts get in the way of a meaningful Tesla discussion.

According to the Tesla's most recent balance sheet as reported on February 8, 2021, total debt is at $11.69 billion, with $9.56 billion in long-term debt and $2.13 billion in current debt. Adjusting for $19.38 billion in cash-equivalents, the company has a net debt of $-7.70 billion. Market Cap 630B

Ford Motor had US$161.3b of debt, at December 2020, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$30.8b, its net debt is less, at about US$130.5b. Market Cap 57B

General Motors had US$109.7b of debt, up from US$103.0b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has US$23.9b in cash leading to net debt of about US$85.7b. Market Cap 85B

Guess which companies will go the way of HyperLoop.

Company A with 7.7B in Cash/630B market cap vs Company B 130B debt/57B market cap vs company C 85B debt/85B market cap.
I know you're trying to be a first class smarty pants with facts and everything, but you do know that the largest piece of Ford debt is actual at the finance arm (Ford Motor Credit), and that there are offsetting receivables on the balance sheet (which you ignored). You can see it if you look at the balance sheet 8n the most recent 10Q.

So you're comparing apples to oranges.
Medaggie
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This doesn't change the fact that ford is financially weak and has a much higher chance of Bankruptcy than Tesla. Tesla/Musk could buy Ford quite easily if they had much value left.
SMM48
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