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Tesla next 5 years, at least a 5X in value.

9,742 Views | 88 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by wayne11MB
12thmanfootball
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Disclaimer, I am a huge Tesla and Elon Fan Boy and have a position in the stock.

I personally believe that the stock price will be >$3000 a share by the end of 2025. That is a 4X/5X return in 5 years. I am not saying that is a slam dunk, but if Tesla executes like they have previously, then the numbers don't lie. The link I am listing below in "Solving the Money Problem" in YouTube. It is of a Australian Tesla investor who really spells out Tesla's future.

I am telling all of my felllow Aggie Brethren, if you want a great stock for a 5 year plus timeframe, Tesla is your best bet.......feel free to thank me in 5 years!!!

Solving the Money Problem
$30,000 Millionaire
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Why will it be a $5K stock? Open minded.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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It feels like a whole lot of things would have to go right for that to happen. Wouldn't that make it the the world's most valuable company by far for a company that hasn't turned a real profit without the carbon credits and such. Not saying it won't but there's a lot of other companies that could more easily go 5x than Tesla, IMO.
bmks270
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It could grow to a 2.7 - 3.3 Trillion dollar market cap in 5 years.

And be valued higher than all other automakers combined.

By market cap Tesla would make up over 50% of the automobile market value, while by sales they make up less than 5% of the global auto market.

The market cap doesn't have to be rationale.
La Bamba
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Ok Cathy Woods
Comeby!
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Why wouldn't other automakers be able to do the same? They have electric cars?
Bobaloo
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It is trading 650 times earnings. I wish every investor the best but that is too rich for me.
LOYAL AG
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I'm not necessarily a fan like the OP but Tesla is more than an automaker. Their Powerwall tech is going to do well. Go to their site and you'll be able to enter your address and they'll tell you how many solar cells and batteries you need then if they're in your market connect you with someone to do the work. As states fail to invest in their electric capacity these ideas are going to prove to be money makers. Given that California and Texas both have real electric grid problems it stands to reason this kind of stuff will do well for them. Right now I see Tesla as interested in all things battery related and that's a potentially major differentiator from their competitors in the auto industry.
CaptnCarl
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Do I just go to Walmart and buy a few AA batteries? My friend HoustonAg told me it's not that simple.

They may be more than an auto manufacturer, but they are still an auto manufacturer and have to compete in that space as such.
YouBet
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Tomas Hermensa said:

It feels like a whole lot of things would have to go right for that to happen. Wouldn't that make it the the world's most valuable company by far for a company that hasn't turned a real profit without the carbon credits and such. Not saying it won't but there's a lot of other companies that could more easily go 5x than Tesla, IMO.
I do not own Tesla and have no dog in this fight, but Amazon made no money for most of their existence and look at them. So it can be done.

Tesla is going to have far more competition than Amazon ever did though; as in the entirety of the auto industry.
My Name Is Judge
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Foamcows
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Tesla needs to do better at the customer experience side of things. Once there are other options, you'll see a ton of people drop the Tesla for someone who cares about their customers.
billikenag
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'grats to those who recognized the singularity of the product, CEO, and growth potential early, and stuck with the company.

At the current valuation, it's in the "too hard" pile. As others have alluded to, the goal is to make money. There's no extra bonus for doing that in a "difficult to predict, if they thread the needle right they'll take over the world primarily, growth situation" versus any other situation meant to compound capital. I'll stick with my "2 inch hurdles"...

And thanks to indexing, if TSLA does take over the world, virtually all will share in the compounding to some degree.

That said, I write long-dated puts at a strike price where the valuation makes sense to me.

To paraphrase Ben Graham-- at what price, on what terms.
A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man.
Medaggie
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I own a Tesla, made a good amount on their stock, have a preorder for the Truck, and likely will put more money into the stock.

What I have learned about stock investing is NO one knows or can predict how a stock will go. I hear recommendations all the time and with good justification just for the stock to tank. I hear how a company will crash and they rocket to the moon.

I keep hearing that Tesla has a customer service issue but I just do not see it.

Buying my car took 10 minutes. They gave me a wait time that was an "estimate" so I knew it could be longer but actually got it a few weeks earlier. Took ownership of my car and drove off in 10 minutes without having to talk to anyone.

I have had to take the car back for some Quality issues (mine have very few) twice and it was a piece of cake. Went on the Tesla App, put in my issues, picked a date/time, dropped car off, they gave me a Uber voucher, went home, Uber voucher and picked my car up the next day. Had a service that took 3 dys, and they gave me a Tesla Loaner. Never needed to talk to anyone and took 10 minutes before leaving. Going to a dealership takes about an hour and everything is over the phone after that.

I had another service issue, and they sent a tech to come to my house to fix it in an hr.

If I have any questions, I text them, and get a response typically the same day.

I would say my car buying/service experience is like buying/returning stuff from Amazon vs going to an ICE dealership which is like going to walmart to buy/return stuff.
John Francis Donaghy
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I see Tesla as primarily an energy and technology company. Cars are simply an effective proving ground for their tech. I could see a future where Tesla winds down their car business, spins it off as a separate company, or sells the auto division to a traditional automaker to more fully focus on developing the tech aspects of the company for other applications.

I don't know if Tesla stock will continue to grow like crazy, level off, or drop off in the future. But anyone judging the future growth potential of the company in light competition with traditional automakers is, I think, misunderstanding Tesla's future.
12thmanfootball
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Very few people are talking about Tesla's potential for Robotaxi Revenue (could be incredible), Tesla Insurance (because they have ALL of the driving data, they can undercut other Car Insurance Companies), Tesla Powerwall and Mega Pack (could disrupt the Energy Companys fueled by coal, oil, and natural gas), Tesla's Artificial Intelligence solutions, Tesla as a Battery Supplier (they will be mass producing their 4680 cells soon), Tesla Solar Roofs, Tesla Autobidder software (for energy arbitrage), Tesla cars in BORING company tunnels (Vegas, Fort Lauderdale, and potentially Austin), and the other Tesla vehicles (Tesla SEMI, the Tesla Compact Car, etc, etc.).

If Space X (who is absolutely wiping the floor of other space transport companies, Blue Origin, Branson's company, Lockheed Martin, etc.) is any measure of Tesla's ability to outperform other companies in their industry(s).........I'd say by connecting the dots it is hard to say they won't be a multi-trillon dollar company and a stock price in the thousands of dollars.

CNBS and the main stream talking heads have been spreading FUD for years about Tesla, and still the stock has performed marvelously.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I'm definitely not anti-Tesla and it very well could go 5x. I just think a lot of this potential is already baked into the share price. It seems like they're going to have to do a lot of the things mentioned on this thread just to keep it's valuation as already one of the very biggest companies in the world.
AggiEE
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Tesla is more likely to be 1/5th of its current value than 5x its current value

Good luck
chris1515
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This is one of those stocks where you have to separate your opinion of the company from your opinion of the stock. One can be great and the other terrible.

I agree with the opinion that Tesla is more likely to be 1/5th its current value in the future than 5x.

It might still be a great company with some great products, but that's a big task to grow the market cap that much. I'm just not sure that anything they do is actually unique. There are plenty of electric car competitors and more everyday, everyone and their dog is working on the "self driving" stuff (I've heard Cadillac has the best), the power wall is interesting but there are other battery supplies for large scale power storage, the Boring Co seems interesting but nothing that couldn't be replicated.
SMM48
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You seen the Munro live tear down of the Ford Mach E? Laughable
SMM48
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People don't understand.
SMM48
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The competition is 10 years behind.

All the best engineers are at Tesla.

Volkswagens offering is a joke
Fords is barely better. Horrible engineering
SMM48
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You own a Tesla?
SMM48
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Agreed
Comeby!
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12thmanfootball said:

.. Tesla Powerwall and Mega Pack (could disrupt the Energy Companys fueled by coal, oil, and natural gas), Tesla's Artificial Intelligence solutions, Tesla as a Battery Supplier (they will be mass producing their 4680 cells soon), Tesla Solar Roofs..


The economics for these aren't there right now. I've studied them. They very well may be later, but not now or in the short term.
SMM48
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https://www.businessinsider.com/new-austin-homes-neighborhood-tesla-brookfield-real-estate-development-2021-7
YouBet
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FunkyKO said:

The competition is 10 years behind.

All the best engineers are at Tesla.

Volkswagens offering is a joke
Fords is barely better. Horrible engineering


I won't question they are behind, but I'm sure they will catch up. They are all going all-in. This isn't fusion. They will figure it out.

All moot if we don't fix the grid though.
SMM48
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Watch the tear down. Don't be so sure. It's horrible.

SMM48
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Don't forget. The AI engine is massive. Unibody rear end is next level. Octovalve application spans far more than automotive. The factory "the machine that builds the machine" will get smaller with the same output.

More to it than just automotive..and admittedly it is difficult to place a valuation on all of that using the car industry historic valuation model.
Comeby!
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FunkyKO said:

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-austin-homes-neighborhood-tesla-brookfield-real-estate-development-2021-7


Paywall. What's it say? I want to know when someone will get their money back (in years) on solely that piece of tech. So far, I'm seeing panels return at 15-17years. That's not feasible.
SMM48
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Sorry bout that

https://bam.brookfield.com/press-releases/2021/07-09-2021-200014929

Scale is a friend. As time passes break even comes down. So let others be the guinea pigs and constructs like this help speed up the deflation.
Foamcows
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Unfortunately I do own one. The biggest issue is once you have had auto pilot (even with all of the glitches) and the speed combo, there are no other cars out there that you can leave the Tesla for. Even when other manufacturers catch up tech wise, they need the charger network or it's useless.

My purchase and ownership experience has been the opposite of the one posted earlier. The order process was listed at 4 weeks when I put down my money and three VINs and three months later I finally got my car.

Since then I've had to have it serviced multiple times. Service appointments are always fun when the first slot is two weeks out and they wait till the day before your appointment to order parts, pushing you out another week.

I'm not sure what I'll do in two years when the warranty is up I definitely don't want to be holding this thing out of warranty.
Medaggie
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I may be completely wrong with Tesla Stock but I can tell you that a driving a 50K Tesla is light years ahead of most 50K Ice cars. Its not even close and every update improves the car.

I don't even understand why we have a dealership model anymore. Other than protecting unions and ICE makers, why do you need dealerships? Most people hate shopping for cars b/c they get upsold or feel cheated.

I didn't think not having to pour gas was a big deal but once you don't have to pour anymore, you realize how great it is. I know in our family, we will have once ICE for road trips and the rest will be electric. I have many that feel the same way, so ICE makers will either convert to EV or will go bankrupt.
ABATTBQ11
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-07-05/tesla-s-fall-from-grace-in-china-shows-perils-of-betting-on-beijing

Tesla certainly has its risks.
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