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Tesla next 5 years, at least a 5X in value.

9,743 Views | 88 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by wayne11MB
Teslag
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Medaggie said:

This doesn't change the fact that ford is financially weak and has a much higher chance of Bankruptcy than Tesla. Tesla/Musk could buy Ford quite easily if they had much value left.


Chevy and Ford will never go away and the UAW will ensure that.
AggiEE
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Flashdiaz said:

AggiEE said:

Salute The Marines said:

FunkyKO said:

Yawn bro Tesla has the best talent.


What the **** does this even mean?


Apparently the ability to design a manufacturable car in an efficient manner with high quality is unique trait to Tesla that no other autos have experience with because Tesla hires a bunch of SV nerds
it's unique to Tesla because they started with EV in mind so everything was designed and built around it. As opposed to existing car manufactures that want to leverage their economies to scale and shoehorn the technology into it.




Tesla doesn't make many of the primary components in an EV.

Given that EVs are far less mechanically complex, I don't see where traditional autos are at a huge disadvantage

VW also operates at a scale Tesla doesn't. Transitioning to EVs won't be that difficult for them
Gordo14
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Medaggie said:

I try to be unbiased when it comes to Tesla and I root for him.

I don't understand when people say Elon is a Fraud. You can call him many names and would make sense but how is he a Fraud.

I think people who hate on Tesla is protecting ICE/OIL's legacy and the jobs/$$$ that comes with it.

Ford/GM are financially in deep trouble without a clear model to get out of it similar to Sears when Amazon. They can either be Circuit City or Best buy. Either Pivot or stay with the same tired model.

I root for American Companies and Tesla creates alot of American Jobs recently rated the most American made car.

People will root for VW, Toyota before they root for Tesla. Makes no sense to me.

The guy essentially made the 1st main stream viable car company from scratch in decades. He help/primarily started Paypal, Tesla, Space X which all are multi billion dollar companies arguably the leaders in their sectors. He is the 2nd richest person.

I don't see Fraud anywhere.

I had the same debate with someone who said Elon was the worse businessman and this is the reason why Tesla will go Bankrupt. His proof was alot of "feelings" vs my hard facts.


You don't see fraud?!?!?

"Fraud is an intentionally deceptive action designed to provide the perpetrator with an unlawful gain or to deny a right to a victim."

How about the time he tweeted he was going private for $420 a share (he wasn't) because short sellers hurt his feelings. The SEC kindly gave him a wrist slap literally for FRAUD. Followed of course by his famous SEC, suck on Elon's cock tweet because he got his feelings hurt that the SEC didn't appreciate his bull***** Anyways, I'd say this classifies as a deceptive action for an unlawful gain.

Or every single lie he's told about autopilot - most egregiously selling equity on the promise of 1 million robotaxis by the end of 2020 in the year 2020. Are there 1 million Tesla robotaxis? Are we even close to that? Was that a not a lie? He got investor money for it. That's kind of the definition of fraud.

The whole solarcity acquisition is just another disgusting example of fraud if you read the actual details of it... this article summarizes a lot of it: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/10/tesla-ceo-musk-goes-to-trial-monday-on-2point6-billion-solarcity-deal.html. The quick summary is he lied about the status of the solar roof product (which was half assed) to justify saving solarcity from bankruptcy with Tesla stock. Elon was the chairman of both companies, his brother was the CEO... And SpaceX owned hundreds of millions of solarcity bonds. And that's just the surface. He is currently being tried in civil court of committing FRAUD.

Then there was the Tesla capital raise on the backs of the Tesla Semi a product that is set for delivery in the upcoming year, 2019. Maybe it hasn't been produced yet because it will never be a long range competitor to diesel semi trucks (let alone ****ing trains - which of course Elon claimed because his words are better than the truth) when the weight of the battery cuts carrying capacity by at least half.... And that's before discussing recharge time and range vs. Diesel. Also autopilot is apparently not at the point where these things can go without a driver - that wasn't a key selling point or anything. Buy diluted tesla equity before this product hits the road 2 year ago. Fraud.

This is an old one, so I doubt you guys remember. Back in the early 2010s, California was offering extra EV credits to companies if they could hit a given range and a given recharge time. They could hit the range, but never recharge time, so they came up with the idea that they could just swap battery packs. So they showed it on stage once in a demonstration. Opened one location where they did it in San Francisco. Claimed the additional $6k per car in EV credits for 3 years, and then when pushed by the city of California quietly ended the battery swap plan. Why? They knew from the begining that the liability exchange of swapping batteries (a large portion of the value of the car) was too much. You can't give someone a new battery and take one worh 100k miles and pretend it's equivalent. But they lied about it's commercial potential to juice up their balance sheet (aka FRAUD) with some sweet, sweet EV credits for years.

Now maybe you could think those are all innocent mistakes and not necessarily calculated examples of fraud. I would argue that isn't a standard afforded to any other executive in the business world, but just to humor you past examples of his personal antics highlight that these are not just some innocent mistake... Fraud has been a calculated tool to keep the fuel of investor and taxpayer cash funneling into the tesla engine. There was the time he called a rescue diver a pedo because Elon desperately wanted credit for something he didn't do on twitter... then doubled down claiming he had proof the diver married a 13 year old (which was a lie)... then tripled down in "anonymous interviews". Everything Elon has done to pump cryptocurrency, especially dogecoin and bitcoin. Arguably he commited fraud with his bitcoin pump and dump - I mean "test of liquidity"... The pathetic hyperloop he's riden to "genius" fame for the last decade. It's a ****ing joke technically speaking. The boring company finding ways to make subways infinitely less efficient so that people can fantasize about Elon some more... that and selling roofing torches I guess. Even SpaceX is not immune... Point to point travel on earth on a rocket? Rockets will never be as safe as commercial airplanes - but his fanboys eat that CGI **** up. Surely Elon realizes that, but he was happy to present it to you as if it was arriving next year. In 2016, Elon said SpaceX would be on Mars in 2018.
https://www.space.com/32719-spacex-red-dragon-mars-missions-2018.html. So surely any day now. Even SpaceX's launch costs are actually in-line with the old space shuttle if you look behind the headlines of Elon Musk quotes. It turns out the extra fuel needed to land on earth again (+ reduced carrying capacity) along with all the maintenance to get a rocket back to launch ready isn't the infinite cost savings they love to pretend it is. For the record, SpaceX wasn't the first company to make a VTOL rocket either. In 1995 McDonnell Douglas made the DC-X. The biggest difference is that McDonnell Douglas didn't turn it into an exciting livestream. And this isn't even close to everything. Just what I remembered off the top of my head.

Tesla's are a decent second vehicle for the upper middle (or upper) class homeowner. It's a pretty niche market and it won't surprise me a bit if they overbuild capacity and run into a demand wall eventually. In general, people in appartments will not buy a Tesla. People that can't afford to throw money down and spend $40k+ on a car, won't buy a tesla. Given that Tesla is already priced at 2x Disney (ridiculous) in a capital intensive business that's only profit comes from a rapidly shutting window of regulatory credits and pumping and dumping bitcoin (to test liquidity of course), I don't really see how anybofy can think it'll casually 5x from here. It's already priced to perfection. Plus you have the liability of Elon overstepping his god complex and getting into trouble again with some dumbass tweet.

I would never trust my money in the hands of a 50 year old man with the emotional maturity of a 13 year old who pretends he's a genius. Maybe that works for some of you. I will give him credit as an amazing capital raiser... only if lying, manipulating, overpromising, and commiting blantant fraud is an acceptable way to raise capital. I am anti-Elon and his psycopathic god complex. Nothing more and nothing less.
Casey TableTennis
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Medaggie said:

Lets not let Facts get in the way of a meaningful Tesla discussion.

According to the Tesla's most recent balance sheet as reported on February 8, 2021, total debt is at $11.69 billion, with $9.56 billion in long-term debt and $2.13 billion in current debt. Adjusting for $19.38 billion in cash-equivalents, the company has a net debt of $-7.70 billion. Market Cap 630B

Ford Motor had US$161.3b of debt, at December 2020, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$30.8b, its net debt is less, at about US$130.5b. Market Cap 57B

General Motors had US$109.7b of debt, up from US$103.0b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has US$23.9b in cash leading to net debt of about US$85.7b. Market Cap 85B

Guess which companies will go the way of HyperLoop.

Company A with 7.7B in Cash/630B market cap vs Company B 130B debt/57B market cap vs company C 85B debt/85B market cap.


GM and Ford liquidity ratios (cash, current, and quick) look more like Apple's than does Tesla's. Tesla ratios recently flipped to acceptable levels and are currently high, if anything. The volatility is an indication of poor liquidity management and likely part of why their bonds are not higher rated, despite your claim Tesla possesses less risk of default.

Omitted from your commentary is any view on the convertible nature of prior bond offerings in their capital structure. Funny how they have less debt when they couldn't issue anything other than convertible debt.

Different story now as they can likely issue attractive (ish) debt at this time, but it is silly to pretend the market cap relative to debt level and/or a liquidity ratio tells any meaningful story.
KaneIsAble
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Let it be known, Gordo14 has taken Elon off of his Christmas card list.
bmks270
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Quote:

Then there was the Tesla capital raise on the backs of the Tesla Semi a product that is set for delivery in the upcoming year, 2019.


This one is a great example.

He does get away with making false assertions regarding product capability and schedule that other CEOs are not given leniency for.
Medaggie
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Musk has alot of faults and he should stop tweeting so much but I don't equate that to fraud.

Most CEOs pump up their business plans and products.

What do you want him to say, "FSD will never happen", "We never will make a truck"?
ABATTBQ11
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TxTarpon said:

How do you think the WalMart litigation will go?
I think no one really cares about that and the Tesla name is like Apple at this point.



They reached a settlement with Wal-Mart 2 years ago. At this point, batterygate and the solar city purchase are much more important.
ABATTBQ11
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Medaggie said:

Musk has alot of faults and he should stop tweeting so much but I don't equate that to fraud.

Most CEOs pump up their business plans and products.

What do you want him to say, "FSD will never happen", "We never will make a truck"?


Honestly, there is an FSD conundrum that I feel like no one has or wants to address: probability.

Tesla's FSD, and basically everyone's, relies on neural networks, which are really just highly complex regressions, for object recognition. They're essentially powered by probability, which means not only are that fallible, they are all but guaranteed to make mistakes through the law of large numbers. Assuredly fewer mistakes than people, but there will always be questions of trust and liability. I wouldn't trust an FSD system if the manufacturer weren't so confident they'd accept full liability

The technical hurdles may be the smallest part, TBH. FSD is certainly a technical possibility, but I doubt that it's a societal or regulatory possibility anytime soon. I doubt we see anything like robotaxis within 5 years.

Yes, Teslas have driven millions of miles autonomously, but Americans alone drive trillions per year. I think they've really only scratched the surface of possibilities to account for, and once they're hitting those large numbers, it's really more an issue of when accidents occur. ETA Accidents are a sparse data problem. They are by definition extreme outliers. For Tesla to really learn about them and train their cars through computer vision and deep reinforcement learning to avoid them, they need to have a lot more miles to capture those sparse conditions that cause accidents.

Tesla will need the human component for the forseeable future, but that level of autonomy lures people into a false sense of security. That's how people have ended up dead. ETA Even if Teslas reached level 5 autonomy, the issue of blocked sensors and cameras and the need for human intervention likely remains, but what if the human is asleep or occupied because Tesla promises full autonomy? What if they can't take offer quickly enough? This is exactly why we have humans in cockpits, and they are always ready to react. The average person isn't up for that though, especially when they're sold the idea of, "You don't need to drive it." Can a car ever truly be 100% autonomous, and if the answer is no, what manufacturer is going to be willing to accept liability? If the promise of full autonomy can never be truly made, should any system be sold as fully autonomous or self-driving and giving that false sense of reliability?

Due to its probabilistic nature, FSD may take several more years or even decades to became anything close to a reality.
TombstoneTex
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If you have 30 minutes Elon's failed promises summarized.

lb3
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Salute The Marines said:

Medaggie said:

This doesn't change the fact that ford is financially weak and has a much higher chance of Bankruptcy than Tesla. Tesla/Musk could buy Ford quite easily if they had much value left.


Chevy and Ford will never go away and the UAW will ensure that.
The Chevy and Ford logos will always have value just like the holding company that owns the RCA trademark continues to license it to third party manufacturers.

The corporation we knew as General Motors ceased to exist after 2009 and the UAW was largely responsible for why it went away.
JSKolache
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It's trading at 650+ PE ratio today. Massively over-valued. Long term it's going down - not up. Even if they make a ish ton of money - it will go down. Fan boys have boosted it to current value & no one should buy at this level.
Sully Dog
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How does spaceX play into that equation?
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
lb3
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SpaceX is privately owned and has no role in Tesla's valuation.
12thmanfootball
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"SpaceX is privately owned and has no role in Tesla's valuation"

Wrong, SpaceX proves that Elon is not a fraud, but a hard-working genius. They (Tesla and SpaceX) have the best engineers in the world and are wiping the floor with other competitors.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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JSKolache said:

It's trading at 650+ PE ratio today. Massively over-valued. Long term it's going down - not up. Even if they make a ish ton of money - it will go down. Fan boys have boosted it to current value & no one should buy at this level.

I disagree with this. The high PE ratio is due to the massive potential upside of the company outside of the automobile industry. Also you can attribute the market capitalization of Tesla to retail fanboys and meme stock buyers. This isn't a small cap being dragged around by us peasants.

At the same time that already high PE is what makes me think it's less likely to go 5x from here. A massive amount of potential is already baked in.
gvine07
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Salute The Marines said:

Medaggie said:

This doesn't change the fact that ford is financially weak and has a much higher chance of Bankruptcy than Tesla. Tesla/Musk could buy Ford quite easily if they had much value left.


Chevy and Ford will never go away and the UAW will ensure that.
I think UAW will be the reason Chevy and Ford do go away
12thmanfootball
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Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Medaggie said:
This doesn't change the fact that ford is financially weak and has a much higher chance of Bankruptcy than Tesla. Tesla/Musk could buy Ford quite easily if they had much value left.
Salute The Marines said:


Chevy and Ford will never go away and the UAW will ensure that.
I think UAW will be the reason Chevy and Ford do go away
The UAW is the reason that the Federal Government will bail them out!
wayne11MB
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I wonder how other car manufacturers would switch their hydrocarbon-related cars into electric sphere of business, in the next 5 years or so. I know for sure, that nowadays services like this rent Tesla site are pretty popular. Even I've been taking Model 3 there, for couple of days when I needed it. It was pretty simple I should admit.
 
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