I understand what you're saying perfectly. You would be right if people ONLY valued MSTR and bought it purely based on its balance sheet. But that's not the case.

You're missing the point I'm making. A company that now can report a higher valuation is asset can take on more debt. More debt for MSTR means more btc purchases. It's a capital unlock for MSTR. Which means more btc per share.

But again for about the third or fourth time. This isn't about MSTRs stock price. This is about BITCOINS value. Which will go up when companies like MSTR get to demonstrate the new accounting rules and the power of holding btc on their balance sheets.

FobTies said:

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@NFLPlayerProps said:

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You still don't understand why the financial statements don't reflect reality. Incredible.

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You are desperately trying, and failing.

I totally understand there is an upcoming accounting standard change. You are the one unable to understand that it's meaningless to their actual underlying valuation and leverage.

My main point about MSTR was that they are highly leveraged BTC. It's a simple concept which you refuted by claiming they were under leveraged.

Anyone reading this can understand what I'm saying, except you.

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And yet you still keep posting the financial statements that clearly aren't correct. I can't explain it any clearer than I have multiple times this week.

I would have a lot more respect for you if you'd just admit that you didn't understand the FASB ruling at first. It's ok to learn new things, nobody will think less of you. One day you'll realize that admitting you were wrong is a strength and not a weakness. Good luck.

Lol, I wasnt wrong about anything, I posted correct figures reflecting most recent data under those existing reporting rules. You applied the new 25' accounting rules to reflect future reporting, congrats. It doesnt matter either way, bc MSTRs actual valuation and leverage has always been based on the current market value of BTC....something you still don't understand.

My original point was simply that MSTR is highly leveraged BTC, and growing as they effectively reverse mortgage their equity to buy BTC. You claim they are under leveraged BTC. You are literally the only person in the world who claims that. Everyone, including Saylor says you are wrong. You can't admit that, so you divert to some irrelevant change in bean counting rules.

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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Your assertion that they have "unprecedented leverage" is wildly incorrect unfortunately. If anything they might currently be under-leveraged.

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Do you have anything to back up the claim that MSTR leverage is precedented? Of course you dont. Yet you call me "wildly inaccurate", when Saylor himself acknowledges that their unprecedented high leverage is intentional. How does it feel to be so wrong?

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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You argue like a woman and your opinion can safely be ignored because you have no idea what you're talking about. This is the last time I will respond to you.

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Lol, resorting to calling me a woman is a clear sign you can't back up anything I pointed out.

Your quote above, and the reality of MSTRs leverage are out in the open for everyone to see. You prob should stop digging your hole and go into the kitchen to make me a sandwich.

Do we know what MSTR stock price would need to fall to and when for them to have to convert btc yo cash to pay bonds maturing? Thats the liquidation event but it seems to be wildly unknown the thresholds for it.

They won't get liquidated. But their average BTC price is around $60k. They will continue to ATM and buy the dips.

Ya maybe liquidating wasn't the clearest term. None of their btc is leveraged per se. It just their most liquid asset should they have big cash payments to make. Ie paying bond holders upon maturity should they not convert to shares.

What I can't find and it seems strange but literally no one seemingly knows at what price threshold MSTR has to drop below for them to be in danger of having to come up with cash vs converting bonds into shares.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Do we know what MSTR stock price would need to fall to and when for them to have to convert btc yo cash to pay bonds maturing? Thats the liquidation event but it seems to be wildly unknown the thresholds for it.

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This question has already been answered several times. My answer hasn't changed, not sure why you keep asking me.

It's futile to discuss MSTR risk when people like NFL claim that their strategy is precedented and under leveraged, and that anyone who claims otherwise is wildly inaccurate.

Just look at the 2024 (roughly) 120% BTC gain vs 350% MSTR gain. What was that? Their software biz? FOMO buying? Short squeeze? Anything but their unprecedented BTC leverage strategy I assume.

No one can predict when the next major BTC correction will happen, but it will happen. No one can predict how leveraged MSTR will be at that time, or how disciplined Saylor will be in managing risk/solvency.

Let's bookmark this topic, and in the next +50% BTC pullback, check back in on MSTR and Saylor. Will the stock be down 50% or 80%? Will bondholders who also shorted the stock want shares or BTC/cash?

I know this type of thinking isn't welcome in a MSTR bull echo chamber, but its worth considering.

I really thought Bitcoin prices would be much higher now.

So you don't know what price MSTR needs to fall to for them to sell btc? You said it's been answered. I haven't seen it. Point me in the direction?

Is anyone feeling as though this is the buying opportunity on Cardano, or is it going lower?

I'm stopped out of all crypto except a couple coins I accepted more risk on and have lower stops levels. I don't see a single setup I like right now.

BTC is the only one that I can realistically project higher targets. But it can also correct as low as $73k while still maintaining potential for a higher high in the future. So there's a ton of risk there in the short term.

This week should be very interesting. We are much closer to the end than most people think. Whether BTC has another move up or not, I think it will end the year below where it is right now.

Hell I thought bitcoin was going to 1 mil this year.

Yep I'm expecting under 70K.

Watching Japan.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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So you don't know what price MSTR needs to fall to for them to sell btc? You said it's been answered. I haven't seen it. Point me in the direction?

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You are insufferable. There is no specific MSTR price that triggers them to sell. I've explained at least 3 times to you in detail that any future liquidation depends on unpredictable future circumstances.

I don't know where you got this idea that there is some magic price or percentage decline that triggers MSTR to have to sell? They could potentially never sell until some court forces them to.

It's like asking the big short guys at what price Lehman Brothers will have to liquidate their assets while the housing market is booming. There is no way to predict how leveraged LBros would be or how steep a housing correction would be in the future. For all we know, Saylor could decide to derisk or diversify changing the entire equation.

If you are trolling like a 5th grader to get me to say the words "I don't know", I have already said it. I don't know what price MSTR will be tmrw, much less at the time they liquidate, or if they even liquidate.

For whatever reason you guys seem to accept the upside outcome of MSTR's leverage going parabolic as BTC explodes, but reject the notion of a MSTR crash in a meaningful BTC correction. It's quite remarkable.

You keep saying they are over leveraged. Which would indicate they could be liquidated. Yet you get frustrated when I ask at what price they would be forced to sell btc.

Why would a court force them to sell btc?

Why call me insufferable when you can't answer a simple question

I just answered you in great detail, then dumbed it down with the example on Lehman Bros. If you arent capable of comprehending it, there is nothing else I can do.

MSTR is no different than any other company with assets. IF they become insolvent (for any reason) they could be forced to liquidate in class action or BK court.

I'm not saying MSTR will go bankrupt or have to liquidate. I'm just pointing out they have high and growing leverage in BTC, and a CEO who shows no signs of hedging or managing downside risk. That's it. That makes them a target for short sellers to pile on, IF there is a meaningful BTC correction.

If BTC never has another +50% correction again, then the risk I'm highlighting is irrelevant. I think that's where the push back against me is coming from. The idea that BTC could correct 50% and send MSTR down 80% is something that must never be contemplated.

At this point I'm totally beating a dead horse.

Here is my question to Yukon and NFL...

Why did MSTR go up 350% last year, when BTC only went up 120%?

I'm not opposed to what you're saying. Maybe we are talking past each other. Taylor will either go down as the greatest investor of all time or the biggest degenerate.

Ok, are you able to answer my question?

Alt coins getting smoked. Bloody

Sorry which one?

Such is life in crypto. This your first full cycle? Most alts will drop 80-90% when the music stops.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Sorry which one?

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Why did MSTR go up 350% last year, when BTC only went up 120%?

Idk yet you tell me

I have explained it many times. It's called leverage. Saylor calls it "intelligent leverage" to remove all doubt about downside risk. It's "intelligent" when BTC is rising, and "wreckless over leverage" if BTC pulls back +50%. Saylor reverse mortaging his company to buy BTC at ATHs, is absolutely unprecedented and high leverage. Thats why nfl still can't point to any other precedent or back up his claim MSTR is "under leveraged".

Saylor himself says they are leveraged 2x price of BTC.

Dump a rooskies

Damn, everything keeps going lower. When do we buy the dip???

Not sure if accurate but my Sink or Swim App indicates that IBIT is down around 7.5% as of a few moments ago.

That was nasty

I wonder if we are cooked

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Such is life in crypto. This your first full cycle? Most alts will drop 80-90% when the music stops.

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Lol. I protect against setups blowing up. Doesn't matter what arena I'm trading in. What's incredible to me is that ferocity of this, all while Bitcoin is above support. I might be wrong, but I don't think that's normal. Some of these had 1-2 year bullish setups that are now decimated. And BTC is still above it's January low.

It's normal I think for alts.