Yep, and I've also communicated on the bitcoin blockchain by posting messages within a transaction. Hth.

SMM48 said:

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Weekly deposit dollar cost average.

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Bitcoin could plunge 70% to $5,000, Standard Chartered predicts, in possible 2023 'surprise'


PUBLISHED MON, DEC 5 20227:57 AM EST

Bitcoin could drop to $5,000 next year in a market surprise that investors are under-pricing, according to Standard Chartered, marking a 70% plunge from the current level of around $17,000.
In a note entitled "The financial-market surprises of 2023," Standard Chartered outlined a number of possible scenarios that "we feel are under-priced by the markets." Standard Chartered said rising yields along with a plunge in technology stocks will lead to an acceleration of the bitcoin sell-off and cause further bankruptcies and collapses in the crypto world.


Standard Chartered predicts that bitcoin could fall to $5,000 in 2023 as part of their research on potential market surprises next year.

Bitcoin could drop to $5,000 next year in a market surprise that investors are under-pricing, according to Standard Chartered. If that level is reached, it would mark a roughly 70% plunge from Monday's price of just over $17,000 for one bitcoin.

In a note entitled "The financial-market surprises of 2023," Standard Chartered outlined a number of possible scenarios that "we feel are under-priced by the markets."

"Yields plunge along with technology shares, and while the Bitcoin sell-off decelerates, the damage has been done. More and more crypto firms and exchanges find themselves with insufficient liquidity, leading to further bankruptcies and a collapse in investor confidence in digital assets," Eric Robertsen, global head of research at Standard Chartered Bank, said in the note Sunday. Robertsen said the somewhat extreme scenarios "have a non-zero probability of occurring in the year ahead, and fall materially outside of the market consensus or our own baseline views."

Bitcoin has already fallen more than 60% this year after a string of high-profile collapses of projects and companies plagued the industry. The latest and biggest casualty is cryptocurrency exchange FTX which has filed for bankruptcy. Contagion from the fallout of FTX continues to spread through the market.
The drop in bitcoin's price will also coincide with a rally in gold, Robertsen said, arguing the yellow metal could potentially rally 30% to $2,250 per ounce "as cryptocurrencies fall further and more crypto firms succumb to liquidity squeezes and investor withdrawals."

Robertsen says gold could re-establish itself as a safe haven, with investors flocking to the commodity for stability in times of market volatility.

"The 2023 resurgence in gold [also] comes as equities resume their bear market and the correlation between equity and bond prices shifts back to negative," he added.

Standard Chartered's view is not the only bearish outlook on bitcoin. Veteran investor Mark Mobius told CNBC last week that he sees bitcoin falling to $10,000 in 2023 due to rising interest rates and tighter monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

There's still alot of risk overhang.

-Macro recession risk in 1Q/2Q 2023
-Formal security designation of most alt coins will initiate a sell off, leading to liquidation of BTC locked as defi collateral in those app chains
-More scam machines (ie a16z, DCG, etc) could be weeded out, leading to insolvencies and more forced into sell offs/contagion
-Lots of uneconomic miners selling BTC inventory (hash rate finally ticked down recently but now trending back up)

Base case, it could be a while before there's a rally with sustainable momentum. But it's possible that upcoming security designation of most alts will lead to a plunge that wipes out alot of "dumb money" and create a cleaner ie (less propped up and regulated) environment for institutions to swiftly proceed with their stated plans of entering the Bitcoin space.

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Formal security designation of most alt coins will initiate a sell off

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I'm dumb...why would this cause a sell off?

Yep. Management teams of tokenized blockchain businesses (ie alts) would have to sell tokens en masse to cover compliance costs.

More importantly IMO, the insider back and forth trading games among alt management team members, which use wash sales and leverage to prop up prices, would come to an end. Exchanges would have to prohibit this behavior. Alt management team insiders would also have to disclose their holdings and when they buy/sell and can no longer partake in opaque price propping activities. I think this is the real reason alt pumpers are so scared of SEC regs.

This would likely facilitate another sell-off cascade as margin calls would be hit and big positions liquidated.

Deluxe said:

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Yep. Management teams of tokenized blockchain businesses (ie alts) would have to sell tokens en masse to cover compliance costs.

More importantly IMO, the insider back and forth trading games among alt management team members, which use wash sales and leverage to prop up prices, would come to an end. Exchanges would have to prohibit this behavior. Alt management team insiders would also have to disclose their holdings and when they buy/sell and can no longer partake in opaque price propping activities. I think this is the real reason alt pumpers are so scared of SEC regs.

This would likely facilitate another sell-off cascade as margin calls would be hit and big positions liquidated.

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Yeah, everything you covered is accurate, and it was mostly done by TradFi individuals outside of hacks, and small random crop coin development.

ac04 said:

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because ****coins would then have to register as securities, which is both very expensive and extremely thorough. they have to disclose business operations and results, audited financial statements, risk factors, management teams, etc. most won't be able to comply, either because they can't afford it or because it would expose the scam they are running. and if they don't and are thus unregistered securities, they become illegal for exchanges to facilitate trade in, so coinbase/gemini et al will drop them immediately. it will be a bloodbath.

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the concern is how much of the ****coin vlaue is currently backed by levered btc/eth//tether investments.

Going to be an interesting week ahead.
CPI data and SBF testifying on the Hill.
Good luck everyone.

tysker said:

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ac04 said:

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because ****coins would then have to register as securities, which is both very expensive and extremely thorough. they have to disclose business operations and results, audited financial statements, risk factors, management teams, etc. most won't be able to comply, either because they can't afford it or because it would expose the scam they are running. and if they don't and are thus unregistered securities, they become illegal for exchanges to facilitate trade in, so coinbase/gemini et al will drop them immediately. it will be a bloodbath.

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the concern is how much of the ****coin vlaue is currently backed by levered btc/eth//tether investments.

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burn it all down

The FTX Con-Man CEO arrested today in the Bahamas

Avoid this thread and every time I return there's some nonsense like a16z being scam artists. Get a grip

this does not sound bullish for crypto:

Crypto exchange Binance has seen its proof-of-reserve audits removed from auditor Mazars' website.

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"Mazars has indicated that they will temporarily pause their work with all of their crypto clients globally, which include Crypto.com, KuCoin, and Binance. Unfortunately, this means that we will not be able to work with Mazars for the moment," a spokesperson for the firm said in an emailed statement to Bloomberg News on Friday.

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BTC down $500 this morning- why would ANYONE keep their coins on a exchange after the last six months of frauds and collapses?

Accounting firm Mazars Group has suspended all work with its crypto clients, according to its former client and the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance. The decision to cut ties with Binance, KuCoin and Crypto.com comes just after the global accounting firm released "proof of reserve" reports for several digital asset exchanges.

A spokesperson from Binance told CNBC in a statement that, "Mazars has indicated that they will temporarily pause their work with all of their crypto clients globally, which include Crypto.com, KuCoin, and Binance."

"Unfortunately, this means that we will not be able to work with Mazars for the moment," Binance said.
Mazars Group did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Both bitcoin and Binance's BNB token took a dip on the news, with bitcoin initially dropping nearly 3% and Binance's native token falling nearly 5.5%.

On Dec. 9, Crypto.com published a proof of reserves audited by Mazars, attesting that customer assets were held on a one-to-one basis, meaning that all deposits were 100% backed by Crypto.com's reserves. A spokesperson for the exchange reiterated that the firm had "successfully" completed its recent proof of reserves in collaboration with Mazars and that the accounting company had "provided independent verification of our secure on-chain digital assets matching our customer balances 1:1."

I feel like Crypto is the ultimate example of "people are flush with cash, chasing returns".

If we go into a true recession where people lose jobs and cash gets limited, I can imagine crypto being hammered, far worse returns than stocks or anything.

The crypto currency market is rife with fraud, failures to comply with existing laws and big swings in volatility, but the recent implosion of digital currency exchange FTX hasn't hampered the broader financial system, according to a report released Friday by Treasury's Financial Stability Oversight Committee.

"FTX is a shock to that market," a Treasury official said, adding that the bankruptcy underscores the committee's concern about crypto highlighted in a report it released in October.

The committee, which was created after the financial crisis to identify looming risks to the financial system, reiterated its call for Congress to pass legislation that allows U.S. regulators to police spot markets for crypto assets that aren't securities

uh oh

I believe Swan has a waiting period but definitely agree with the sentiment.

SBF gonna get a lot of non-tender lovin' in federal prison.

Hopefully you're beating the cost for each trade

Well, a prominent person in the midst of the crypto world agrees with what I and others believe and commented a while back...

https://dailyhodl.com/2022/12/29/xrp-lawyer-says-sec-chair-gary-gensler-will-drive-crypto-prices-lower-with-future-lawsuit-against-an-exchange/

Banks and brokers need clarity from the SEC and/or CFTC before moving into the exchanges. It seems that is where the real money is. If exchanges like coinbase were profiting from illegal activities (like market marking in non-registered securities), they should be punished and shareholders would be left holding the bag.

https://crypto.news/u-k-activates-new-crypto-tax-policy-to-encourage-foreign-investment/

UK doing what I believed the US would do just in a slightly different manner.

BRUH @jack really is pulling no punches for 2023

This new #bitcoin @blocks @TBD54566975 @CashApp spot is WILD 🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/Ij3hjTLP4q

— just jay (@justh0dl) January 4, 2023

Luckily that doesn't register with me. I have not lost funds due to scams, rug pulls, hacks, or bad tokens. It isn't that difficult to do research, be your own custodian, and hodl.

What's behind this resurgence?

I blame:
1. EL salvador Miss Universe contestant
2. TAMU publicizing their first ever Bitcoin class
3. SEC finally taking action on entities and labeling ****coins as unregistered securities.

Smattering of bitcoin legalizations by countries globally as well.

But mostly, bitcoin is following a generic 4 cycle trend it usually follows.

Let's go!

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Texas A&M University to offer #Bitcoin course this semester 👏 pic.twitter.com/HGnqAjhw5B

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 13, 2023