Kinda feels like a short-term top to me

Agree. Haven't looked at this thread in a awhile.

It's hovering today at around where I exited this summer. I still feel $85 may still be the long term target but it's got enough headwinds at this point could drag it out and maybe even stifle it until interest rates rise (2023 or 2025, driven by the political cycle)

jagvocate said:

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Kinda feels like a short-term top to me

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I feel pretty confident you are correct. I could see it landing anywhere in the $20's over the next couple of years.

mazag08 said:

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jagvocate said:

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Kinda feels like a short-term top to me

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I feel pretty confident you are correct. I could see it landing anywhere in the $20's over the next couple of years.

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It really was a short term top.

Thread sure has come a ways since Feb 2020.

PeekingDuck said:

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Thread sure has come a ways since Feb 2020.

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Yes, yes it has. We are back to historical split territory for XOM (not that that will happen again).

Funny this got bumped today. I'm debating selling some off some of the shares I bought in Feb 2020.

Sold all of mine yesterday. Bought all the way down into the 30s. Had way too much in XOM, but it worked. Seemed like a no brainer.

U.S. oil crossed above $90 on Thursday for the first time since 2014 as demand for petroleum products surges while supply remains constrained.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, gained more than 2% to trade as high as $90.23 per barrel. The last time prices were above the $90 mark was October 2014. International benchmark Brent crude rose 1.7% to trade at $91. Brent topped $90 on Jan. 26.

TXTransplant said:

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Funny this got bumped today. I'm debating selling some off some of the shares I bought in Feb 2020.

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I bumped it because I offloaded half of my CVX and want to unload half my XOM but don't want to deal with the gain

I'm just wrapping up my 2021 taxes, and sadly, don't own enough shares for my gains to worry me too much. I'm already hosed for 2022 anyway, because I got a raise and will no longer get the $2k child tax credit.

And part of me wants to hold out to see if it gets into the $90s.

TXTransplant said:

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I'm just wrapping up my 2021 taxes, and sadly, don't own enough shares for my gains to worry me too much. I'm already hosed for 2022 anyway, because I got a raise and will no longer get the $2k child tax credit.

And part of me wants to hold out to see if it gets into the $90s.

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Yeah it would be cool to see it in the 90's. Plus the dividend is nice compared to my cost basis at 40

I only have 150 shares left so I'm sitting on mine for the long haul unless I see the company just completely going away. My avg cost basis is around $40.

// At $81.41 XOM close on Friday, it just a two bagger. Looking for three X by the summer driving season with Joe's progressive energy policies. In Cali, gas is already <$6 a gallon; what is to stop this 'lack of supply' from affecting the other 49 states.//just my thoughts. //

Only the buys for about 7 days in March of 2020 have been a good investment (caught up to SPY), and it's been a very wild ride, and only very recently even caught up. XOM blind love affair never ceases to amaze. And yes, I know this is improved by considering the dividend over the last 2 years, but everyone is only talking like they only bought in the low 30s.

Why should I give my opinion a rest on a message board!

And obviously I do want something to do with it.. just not buy it.

Diggity said:

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By all means.. continue to be the Clay Travis of this thread

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So it's group think or go away?

Not at all what I said

PeekingDuck said:

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He was wrong on 3/12/2020 and has continued to stick to his guns. Entertaining to watch!

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Did you look at the attached picture? How was I wrong... Other than maybe on that day.. but this thread started buying at 60. As I said, there was about 1 week in that time where it worked out... And until about 10 days ago, it never looked good.

Sit around long enough and you can frequently prove you made the right call (1 way or the other).

I just find it interesting that everyone here is talking about how great this turned out. It didn't unless you bought that specific few days. And when I disagree, you guys get catty. Not one has refuted my facts with facts.

Was it a bad investment.. no, but what was bad dating back to March 2020? Was it good relative to most anything else.. no? But it's one of the very few investments that has a 2 year old thread touting its success.. and in my opinion, erroneously so.

Ogre09 said:

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planoaggie123 said:

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I am no expert but barring a massive increase in oil prices or increase in dividend I don't see much run-up. I feel like those who got in low 40s did fine but if you are buying in the high 50s / low 60s you prob wont killing it on stock price increase...mainly would be buying for the dividend....thats me though...could be WAY off.

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I got in at $43 and out at $51. Bought back in a little at $53. Probably jumping back out here.

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WHY?

Interested to hear if any of you have thoughts on the significance of XOM BoD member Jeffrey Ubben selling off ~89% of his shares (1.5M shares) @ $80.05 last Friday.

Jayhawk said:

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Interested to hear if any of you have thoughts on the significance of XOM BoD member Jeffrey Ubben selling off ~89% of his shares (1.5M shares) @ $80.05 last Friday.

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Probably a man who recognizes a peak or near-peak when he sees one

GE said:

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Jayhawk said:

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Interested to hear if any of you have thoughts on the significance of XOM BoD member Jeffrey Ubben selling off ~89% of his shares (1.5M shares) @ $80.05 last Friday.

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Probably a man who recognizes a peak or near-peak when he sees one

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That director is a fund manager, and those shares are his and from his funds that he indirectly controls. It doesn't change whether it is a significant insider sale or not, just giving a little more color from the SEC filing.

Update the chart

TXTransplant said:

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Closed at $87.12 today. 5 year high was $89 back in Jan 2018.

I was thinking I'd sell if it hit $90, but now I'm thinking I might hang on since it's the only one of my investment accounts that's not losing money.

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It's not too late for gold, silver, and quality mining stocks (AUY, HL, etc.)

Anyone want to guess the XOM playbook here? I think XOM categorizes their money in this order:
-Pay out their dividend through no extra loans
-Reduce their debt load
-Small increase in spending to bring Guiana on faster
-Small boosts to operations maintenance at their refining plants for 2023 budgets
-Small salary pool increases to slightly stem the flow of talent leaving

I don't think any of the supermajors are going to give awesome dividends this year. The small independents of shale oil and canadian oil sands will be first to start returning capital to shareholders.

Jayhawk said:

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Interested to hear if any of you have thoughts on the significance of XOM BoD member Jeffrey Ubben selling off ~89% of his shares (1.5M shares) @ $80.05 last Friday.

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While that's a big selloff, this is likely due to following reasons:

• His cost basis would have been ridiculously low and XOM is trading where it last was 3 years ago. His profit taking here is astronomical and he's most likely just capitalizing on that. Recall that not even that long ago, in this thread too, folks were saying XOM was a shell of its former self and would never return to its past glory.
• F500 has significant stock movement in Feb-Mar every year because that's when stock options and RSU's get paid out for a lot of folks.
• Blackout periods in play.