Exxon Chemicals says hi.

Yes- that analysis is not just upstream, it's the entire company....

And yes XOM has more refining than CVX and CVX has more chems....

But guess what, reining cracks and chems demand are both terrible right now too. So all you pundits thinking XOMs downstream is going to bail them out (false)

There is a reason XOM did a bond deal before they reported 1q financials, because the cash burn is going to be huge...and then the Street will be able to get a feel for their run rate for the rest of the year

Correct. See no way to avoid the dividend cut at this point. Makes sense, may need to pull CAPEX back further.

Brent is holding up better...

MRO might be the best buy in right now...down 77% year over year.

tam2002 said:

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Oil hitting the low 15s right now. Gonna get another great shot to buy the big boys on the super cheap soon

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Yeah I sold my XOM this morning, waiting for the drop now.

Sold the XOM I bought Friday for a 6% gain. Will watch for another opportunity!

crowman2010 said:

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MRO might be the best buy in right now...down 77% year over year.

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How stable are they to withstand this mess? I'm not in the O&G industry but I'd be nervous about investing in anyone not named XOM or CVX right now.

Every bit of the fundamental discussions about XOM is out the window for those of you day trading this thing. Short term swings are all about buy-sell imbalances, good luck with timing that with any regular success in this environment.

Also, I just messed with some charts over the past month plotting IVV, CVX, and XOM (and adjusted date ranges to look at many different scenarios). There is almost no time over the last month that XOM was the winning choice. Even that 6% return from Friday was matched by CVX and dwarfed by OXY and COP. Short term plays are absolutely gambling. Guess that's the day-traders challenge...is it a success if it underperformed?

I certainly could be swayed that buying XOM here would make me really happy 5 or so years from now. But timing headlines, and identifying what is already priced in, is what you are left doing with this sector with short term trades.

Spaceship said:

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crowman2010 said:

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MRO might be the best buy in right now...down 77% year over year.

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How stable are they to withstand this mess? I'm not in the O&G industry but I'd be nervous about investing in anyone not named XOM or CVX right now.

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They have multiple facilities that are currently under construction and old facilities that are nearly completed on their renovations. To me that says they've extended a lot of capital out, so you may be right, they might be over extended.

What facilities are you talking about? MRO is all upstream.... are you thinking MPC the refiner?

MRO will go bankrupt. Hedges were 3-ways and they largely have tier 2 acreage and drilling bad wells, imo. No value proposition for small-medium unconventional independents.

tam2002 said:

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Oil hitting the low 15s right now. Gonna get another great shot to buy the big boys on the super cheap soon

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Mid 7's now.

$2.50 a barrel now....WOW! wish i could buy 1000 barrels



EDIT....excuse me it is actually $1.10

And now... well... yeaa.

Here comes the plunge

Man, wish I would have bought more CVX. XOM and CVX haven't skipped a beat this week. Are they ever going to take a dip, or bull on up back to '18/'19 levels?

They're holding firm largely given index inclusion.

I'm there with you...just waiting on them and RDSB. But honestly I'm starting to wonder if there will be a dip

Glad I'm not the only one. CVX hit the $70s last week. Could have been the time. We may be wishing we'd bought in the $80s.

Can somebody break out their crystal ball on this? Need answers.

CaptnCarl said:

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Man, wish I would have bought more CVX. XOM and CVX haven't skipped a beat this week. Are they ever going to take a dip, or bull on up back to '18/'19 levels?

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Yeah I know. Only thing I can think is that this drops around this time next month if we are still locked down.

So I went long CVX, PXD, TRP, XLE, EOG and FANG. Right now my portfolio is up about 18%. I picked up some of my position in CVX and PXD at $69 and $61. Would you take your gains at this point and dump before early May earnings announcements and buy back in after the likely slide, or would you just ride it out through the storm and wait for the day when these equities rise to higher levels? I'm vacillating on this decision. Curious to hear what you guys would do.

I'm riding out my XLE, XOM and PE shares. After the past few strong days I'm sure a pull back is coming, but I'm not going to try to gamble on when it is if it doesn't end up being a while. I'm staying in them until I have a really good reason to bail.

I got burned last time I dumped my oil stocks thinking there would be a pullback...not doing it again

XOM put buyers

tam2002 said:

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I got burned last time I dumped my oil stocks thinking there would be a pullback...not doing it again

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I sold at the beginning of the week and put it towards Scorpio Tankers. Made 20%, now I'm waiting for a little pull back on XOM to throw back in.

Bocephus said:

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When XOM drops down in the 50s, I buy. Just chugging along. Picked up some more at 59.80 today

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yo can you give me some tips

Greatness said:

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Bocephus said:

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When XOM drops down in the 50s, I buy. Just chugging along. Picked up some more at 59.80 today

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yo can you give me some tips

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I think laserdiscs are the wave of the future. Look into it

Man those laserdiscs were awesome to look at though.

I guess at some point, O&G stocks get so low that it becomes decent value. But there are just so many other companies out there that have proven to be great, profitable, growing business over a long period of time. I choose to invest my money in those companies.

I just don't see a scenario for a sustainable oil price above $45-50/bbl and I don't think O&G stocks become attractive unless you get to >$60.

DRE06 said:

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I guess at some point, O&G stocks get so low that it becomes decent value. But there are just so many other companies out there that have proven to be great, profitable, growing business over a long period of time. I choose to invest my money in those companies.

I just don't see a scenario for a sustainable oil price above $45-50/bbl and I don't think O&G stocks become attractive unless you get to >$60.

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I get it but I actually believe the big dogs (CVX, XOM, RDS, BP, etc) will be good buys faster than you might expect. I think many of the "little" guys won't survive this and the rich will only get richer. I esp like RDS/B (have by far my biggest position with them among the 4) for what they are doing with natural gas and renewables also.

They may not get to good prices as quick as I think but I'm long with all them so not worried about it. Next weeks earnings and soon to be plans with dividends are going to be interesting

I established a position in XLE and I'll probably add to it over time. That's a pretty solid collection of companies that have the scale, geographic diversity, reputation, and access to capital to outlast everyone else. If your thesis is that oil is still going to be around for a long time but you don't want to pick individual stocks, that's not a bad play.

Care to share "those" companies?

CVX just hit $90/share and was at $56 a few weeks ago. Where are you getting those kinds of returns long term?