Mas89 said:

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cjsag94 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Beat the Hell said:

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You really want to buy the stock at $35 in two months when it's trading at $20?

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Why do you think it will go to $20? You think the Saudis and Russians will drag this thing out to bring it to $20? Russia can't balance their books or even get close to balancing them. I don't think they can keep this up for long

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I think it's a very real possibility that Russia at least tries to do just that. They can print money just like we can, don't understand how why you think they have to"Balance their books".

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Yes. Putin has a well thought out and executed plan. Problem is, we don't know what it is. Power play for some reason but he won't reverse anytime soon. Could be our 2020 election, or maybe power in the Middle East. Or multiple reasons, but definitely not a mistake.

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How about $$$$

They are doing what anyone who can conspire to impact price of a commodity. They shorted and will unwind that and go long before they announce prod cuts. The question is if Trump's announcement on filling up the SPR will expedite their plan and change forecasts to $30-40 oil instead of $20-30 over next couple months.

Bregxit said:

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My 401k is hurting. Just checked and I have 2360 shares of XOM at an average of $80/share. It is nice getting some cheap shares though.

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Might I suggest dollar cost averaging?

On March 6, the SPR was 92 million short of max capacity. Filling it up is not going to make a big dent in oil prices. Especially with the otherwise massive lack of demand caused by the CV.

Should be able to pick up some in the 30s in about 7 hours

Set to open $34.67

Could we see it lower into the 20 range?

aggie2812-2 said:

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Could we see it lower into the 20 range?

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This week is going to be telling. I would buy some today but hold off of the majority of what I wanted to buy for a couple days to the end of the week perhaps

Thanks!

tam2002 said:

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aggie2812-2 said:

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Could we see it lower into the 20 range?

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This week is going to be telling. I would buy some today but hold off of the majority of what I wanted to buy for a couple days to the end of the week perhaps

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KSA said 13MM BPOD today... ****ers.

IrishTxAggie said:

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tam2002 said:

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aggie2812-2 said:

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Could we see it lower into the 20 range?

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This week is going to be telling. I would buy some today but hold off of the majority of what I wanted to buy for a couple days to the end of the week perhaps

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KSA said 13MM BPOD today... ****ers.

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He can't do simple math
Assuming $25/bbl lifting cost and he could get $50/bbl without this temper tantrum.
10 mbpd x $25 (50-25) = $250 million/day net
13 mbpd x $5 (30-25) = $65 million/day net
$65 - 250 = -$185 million/day

That will help balance your budget Prince

Picked up some more at 34.20

Was reading a couple articles about russia/saudi + rest of opec positions.

I think this is all tied to Putin locking down his role as a dictator recently with their constitutional amendment. Russia's biggest weapon in this price war is that its currency is floating. Russian oil companies sell their oil for dollars, while paying their expenses in rubels. So production still happens, but importing anything into the country just got more expensive for them. The companies don't collapse, the international purchasing power of the country does. So we're about to see a soviet style 'self sufficient' economy from Russia. As long as Putin remains in power, he can deflate the russian's ability to purchase international goods.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia's currency is pegged to the dollar. They can't exchange their way into keeping the local economy insulated. While SA also has a stupid low price per barrel to extract, they have their economy balanced at like $70-80/barrel. And life is good in Saudi Arabia when oil is good, basically the whole social welfare program is paid for and the people don't pay taxes. MBS is also trying to wrest power right now. Him removing social programs is not a good look to replace the king.

So when Putin says he can do this for 6-10 years or forever, what he is doing is reducing Russia's ability to international trade. But SA is going to run out of money before Russia cares to stop deflating its country.

Long term, this means Saudi Arabia has to deal with not being number 1 anymore. Once MBS sees that Putin ain't getting ousted over destroying his countries trade, but he might the taps will tightened back up.

Especially heading into the full brunt of coronavirus reduced demand. What a bunch of stupidity.

Sounds like Putin is playing with fire. He's not invincible, even if it feels like he is. This could be the start of him being overthrown, or starting a war with Saudi.

CaptnCarl said:

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Sounds like Putin is playing with fire. He's not invincible, even if it feels like he is. This could be the start of him being overthrown, or starting a war with Saudi.

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For Putin to get overthrown, someone else needs to convince both the army and the oligarchs that they would get more money under a new regime, and that they would survive the regime change. So who is the highest ranking person in the Russian military right now not named Putin? I still think Putin has an iron grip on the power players in the country, and has shown he isn't above offing people who don't toe the line.

This is the first time in a while that Putin has created a foothold for a real challenger though. Interesting times ahead for Russia. Every year it gets harder for countries to hide their financial issues by not participating in international trade. People want their iphones, laptops, and foriegn cars. Its easy for people to see immediately just how much poorer they are under low oil prices.

XOM credit rating cut

I'm not your financial advisor and I am not giving you financial advice.

My opinion is that you should not do that. What you're trying to capture is low oil prices. At least diversify into CVX or EQNR or RDS.

How will this effect the Q1 and Q2 dividend?

Also, haven't seen anyone mention VLO. Thoughts?

1st quarter already paid.

IrishTxAggie said:

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XOM credit rating cut

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source?

Edit: Nvm found it!

Ducks4brkfast said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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XOM credit rating cut

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source?

Edit: Nvm found it!

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https://seekingalpha.com/news/3552127-exxons-credit-rating-downgraded-s-and-p

Question for an analyst...

How is the market cap roughly 146B for XOM while their balance sheet reflects a net stockholders equity of roughly 191B?

I'm just a simple man but it seems to me they could fold up shop today and sell everything and raise almost 50 billion more than the entire market cap today. How does that make any sense?

Granted those figures are as of 12/31/19 but I don't see how that much has changed on their balance sheet since that time.

IrishTxAggie said:

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XOM credit rating cut

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So what's up with Exxon? That sounds like a bigger deal than just manipulation by Saudis or virus panic

They're running a heavy CAPEX programs across most segments. They will likely have to heavily pull back in the permian and other areas

So the biggest "value" on any O&G company is the value of proved reserves... YE19 proved reserve value is based on avg 2019 prices, so ~$65 Brent. Today Brent is like $30... so the value of their underlying reserves is substantially lower than what is reflected on their YE balance sheet

But as I've said before in this thread- XOMs breakeven price to cover their dividend is closer to $70-75 Brent... they have been outspending cash flow the last few years so their balance sheet has been getting worse.
So now they will have to drastically cut capex to protect their balance sheet....and if oil prices remain depressed a divi cut is possible

That makes sense. Thank you.

A vendor I work closely with also serves Exxon. He was at their headquarters last week and was told that "if it's not Wink to Webster related, its being pulled back" This is very second hand info, so take it for what it's worth.

redline248 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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XOM credit rating cut

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So what's up with Exxon? That sounds like a bigger deal than just manipulation by Saudis or virus panic

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They were one of a few companies with that rating and it was mostly historical, considering their current capital spend and reserve replacement requirements. AA+ is still exceptional. There will be a slew of rating downgrades in the industry.

An interesting chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_credit_rating

DAT DIVIDEND!