All A&M said:

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PeekingDuck said:

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cjsag94 said:

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I think that was suggested at $60, then $50, now at $40.

So if it drops to $30, dies it become a "safe" 100% return? If oil drops to $20, don't think that supports that thesis.

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Who suggested that at $60? Historically, suggesting that at $50 and below is very reasonable. At $40 it is basically a guarantee.

Oil has dropped to $30 before and certainly possible it could hang there for a while. Thankfully, XOM doesn't invest only for the panic cycle. Oil won't stay at 20 or 30 for very long. If it does stay there for any extended duration, there are few companies in the world that will benefit as much as XOM in the long term.

You sound like a New Yorker.

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The OP stated in the first post (2/20/20) that he is adding to XOM anytime the price drops below $60 and bought some at $59.80.

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See bolded. Thanks.

Got some at $38 and change yesterday. Sure wish I had sold some stuff a couple months ago and had more cash to be buying right now.

The market activity around XOM and oil stocks in general is really in disagreement with those of you buying right now.

cjsag94 said:

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The market activity around XOM and oil stocks in general is really in disagreement with those of you buying right now.

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You think XOM has more room to go down after shedding over 50% of it's market cap in six months?

Hell, what about MRO? $4 for MRO...$4!!!!

Bought some more XOM at $36.82 today.

IrishTxAggie said:

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cjsag94 said:

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The market activity around XOM and oil stocks in general is really in disagreement with those of you buying right now.

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You think XOM has more room to go down after shedding over 50% of it's market cap in six months?

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I have no idea what XOM, or anything else for that matter, will do. My factual statement was that the market seems to think so right now. S&P and Dow up 3.5% while XOM down 1%. Only time will tell. This sentiment started this thread at $60...it's now mid-30s.

cjsag94 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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cjsag94 said:

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The market activity around XOM and oil stocks in general is really in disagreement with those of you buying right now.

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You think XOM has more room to go down after shedding over 50% of it's market cap in six months?

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I have no idea what XOM, or anything else for that matter, will do. My factual statement was that the market seems to think so right now. S&P and Dow up 3.5% while XOM down 1%. Only time will tell. This sentiment started this thread at $60...it's now mid-30s.

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As of March 9th, it is trading below it's book value. This is very much a risk/reward scenario. The Saudi/Russia crap is baked as well as the decrease in use from Corona. We're at levels that XOM hasn't seen since 2002. This is one phone call away between MBS and Putin from skyrocketing.

The Russians can put on the brave face as much as they want, but they balance their national budget on oil sales and they can't do it right now. Putin may have the "power" but there are enough oligarchs that will eventually get tired of giving oil away.

cjsag94 said:

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I have no idea what XOM, or anything else for that matter, will do. My factual statement was that the market seems to think so right now. S&P and Dow up 3.5% while XOM down 1%. Only time will tell. This sentiment started this thread at $60...it's now mid-30s.

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The powers that be didn't like Exxon's strategy before the crash. They certainly aren't going to start now. They obviously want Darren to show that magical free cash flow like all the other good little boys.

So who bought around $35 today?

I bought 500 shares.

Got it at $37 for 500.

Got into XOM today @ $36.63. Just too good of a price on strong a company that pays a nice dividend.

Appreciate the recommendation.

Imagine the dividend will get cut

38 for me

Cyp0111 said:

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Imagine the dividend will get cut

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Probably will but doesnt mean it wont come back later.

I loaded up on it today.

Cromagnum said:

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Cyp0111 said:

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Imagine the dividend will get cut

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Probably will but doesnt mean it wont come back later.

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I think it would. ExxonMobil is a company built to hand out a dividend. They are not a growth play, nor are they a technology company trying to sell process improvement. Exxon's job is to manage cash flow while acquiring and extracting resources. There's an interesting article about how Exxon never really exceeds the value of its oil reservoirs and its stock owners are basically land owners of oil. If Exxon does not keep exploring and discovering new reservoirs, it's valuation would continually drop.

It's the opposite of a software company. Exxon has no inherit value, if it extracts 5 billion worth of oil out of the ground, it's worth 5 billion less.

So buying Exxon when oil is low is a nice way to to get access to a dividend long term while also being protected against stock price destruction. If you buy Exxon when oil is $80 a barrel, you can only sell your stock for a profit the next time it's above 80.

You know, I started to notice that same thing when I saw who we were paying every *********time we drilled a well in Texas.

Cromagnum said:

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Cyp0111 said:

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Imagine the dividend will get cut

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Probably will but doesnt mean it wont come back later.

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I said that about BAC in 2008

When looking at stocks my dad always told me, 'look at where all the money flows, and buy that stock.' He was tech, so he saw all the money flow to intel, microsoft, and apple across his career.

I'm in oil services, but whenever I'm buying stocks I still think of the same thing. Guess I'm stuck buying Standard Oil derivatives.

CSTXAg92 said:

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Got into XOM today @ $36.63. Just too good of a price on strong a company that pays a nice dividend.

Appreciate the recommendation.

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Put in an order at 36.60 and watched the price climb to 36.70, 36.85 on up until the close. Oh well. Sitting on cash is not a bad idea right now.

I did the same.

You really want to buy the stock at $35 in two months when it's trading at $20?

Beat the Hell said:

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You really want to buy the stock at $35 in two months when it's trading at $20?

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Why do you think it will go to $20? You think the Saudis and Russians will drag this thing out to bring it to $20? Russia can't balance their books or even get close to balancing them. I don't think they can keep this up for long

A month ago I didn't think it could get to $35 either. So what do I know?

IrishTxAggie said:

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Beat the Hell said:

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You really want to buy the stock at $35 in two months when it's trading at $20?

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Why do you think it will go to $20? You think the Saudis and Russians will drag this thing out to bring it to $20? Russia can't balance their books or even get close to balancing them. I don't think they can keep this up for long

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I think it's a very real possibility that Russia at least tries to do just that. They can print money just like we can, don't understand how why you think they have to"Balance their books".

cjsag94 said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Beat the Hell said:

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You really want to buy the stock at $35 in two months when it's trading at $20?

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Why do you think it will go to $20? You think the Saudis and Russians will drag this thing out to bring it to $20? Russia can't balance their books or even get close to balancing them. I don't think they can keep this up for long

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I think it's a very real possibility that Russia at least tries to do just that. They can print money just like we can, don't understand how why you think they have to"Balance their books".

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Yes. Putin has a well thought out and executed plan. Problem is, we don't know what it is. Power play for some reason but he won't reverse anytime soon. Could be our 2020 election, or maybe power in the Middle East. Or multiple reasons, but definitely not a mistake.

Russia timed it well to maximize their cost effectiveness with the help from coronovirus which was going to reduce travel and demand anyway

jamey said:

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Russia timed it well to maximize their cost effectiveness with the help from coronovirus which was going to reduce travel and demand anyway

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Completely unintentional.

If you listen to Limbaugh's first hour from 3/9, he's got an entirely different take. This isn't Russia's doing at all. Rather, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the central figure instigating the price war in oil.

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/wp-login.php?redirect_to=/videos/23/97559