I think that was suggested at $60, then $50, now at $40.

So if it drops to $30, dies it become a "safe" 100% return? If oil drops to $20, don't think that supports that thesis.

cjsag94 said:

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I just don't get it. So many investments to choose from... Everything is down. Why would anyone keep doubling down on 1 single stock in this environment?

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I placed orders for 8 different stocks today. If there were separate threads for each Of those, I would post on them too. Since you mentioned it, who do you love today?

It's ironic but XOM and so many others got out of their fields around the world and invested in the Permian thinking it was less risky. 50% or XOM production is basically Permian and Guyana by 2025. That is risky. Also no Permian company has been able to consistently make money since the start. Thinking about it that way makes XOM scary.

I am long though. I bought a good chunk at $50. Not buying more now and currently short OTM 30 puts. Too many better bargains out there. I like GOOG, AYX, even EOG for playing the oil rebound.

Everything is down.. I don't expect that there will be disjointed recoveries. I'm not a big index investor, but times like this are perfect for that.

Why take on the risk picking individual stocks, especially in an industry that has its own headwinds. I think beating the broad market over the next 6 months or so will be very difficult.

In the long run, XOM could benefit from being able to buy smaller competitors for pennies on the dollar. But looks to be a bumpy ride in the short term.

My thoughts exactly. Strong balance sheets should be able to scoop up bargain assets/acreage in coming months.

I'm long on XOM already. But boy, I have a sizeable chunk of change on the sidelines for events such as this one. It's interesting to finally see it play out...XOM is one of several heavily discounted stocks I'm eyeballing.

XOM is in the best position out of any of the others. The bigger worry for XOM, and other oil companies, is the ESG movement starving them of capital.

What else are you looking at?

cjsag94 said:

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I think that was suggested at $60, then $50, now at $40.

So if it drops to $30, dies it become a "safe" 100% return? If oil drops to $20, don't think that supports that thesis.

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Who suggested that at $60? Historically, suggesting that at $50 and below is very reasonable. At $40 it is basically a guarantee.

Oil has dropped to $30 before and certainly possible it could hang there for a while. Thankfully, XOM doesn't invest only for the panic cycle. Oil won't stay at 20 or 30 for very long. If it does stay there for any extended duration, there are few companies in the world that will benefit as much as XOM in the long term.

You sound like a New Yorker.

I prefer Chevron to XOM. Seems that Chevron has gone through the high capex cycle already and are now harvesting revenues from those investments. Seems like XOM has got some projects that will require significant capital going forward. At least for me, every time I've purchased XOM over the last several years, I've regretted buying it. It's been a dog of a stock for a good long while now. At any rate, just my opinion.

Does anybody have any opinions on the Vanguard Energy ETF or the Energy Select spdr? Seems risky to cherry pick stocks when you can just invest in the entire sector. Everything has been sold down to absurd levels. Thoughts?

The only thing about picking an energy sector ETF vs individual energy stocks is you are more fundamentally tied to the price of oil than an individual company. Everyone's balance sheets and investment cycles average out.
Just like you said, Chevron is reaping the benefits of capex investment while XOM is staring down some large project costs. If you feel that Chevron is the best positioned moving forward, why not just buy Chevron?

Multiple reasons, really, but I'll mention one here. I'm pulling $10k out of my liquidity to go bargain shopping right now. The rest of my money is managed by professional money managers and so I don't tell them how to do their jobs. Chevron is still an expensive equity even after The sell down and I'm looking to pick up something cheaper. There are other reasons that I'd prefer not get into on a message board. That said, I have supreme confidence in CVX but would like to get a little more bang for my buck.

I see your point, but define cheaper? Lower P/E ratio? Lower actual price? Stocks who has been hit the hardest? Stocks who have been hit moreso than they should? Stocks most likely to recover quickly?

Third Coast,

I would think theres three good options (and of course others out there as well):

Oil majors who will weather this storm: ExxonMobil, Chevron
Software tech companies sitting on huge piles of cash that normally trade at high premiums but have been battered by the market: Apple, Microsoft
No individual winners or losers, just stable investment: S&P 500 ETFs like voodoo, itot, spyder

The only problem I have with S&P 500 over the four other companies I listed is that those individual companies will still be well positioned if the fed repo bubble bursts and everyone takes a bath for a year or two. They could recover quicker than the market as a whole.

In the grand scheme of things, just making monthly deposits into S&P 500 ETFs for the rest of your working days will reward you incredibly well. Very different than trying to flip 15k to 25k in a year.

A good compromise between S&P 500 ETFs and getting exposure to individual high performing tech stocks is to do QQQ. Thats the NASDAQ 100. Its got lots of technology companies on it.

Beware though, its more prone to a bubble than a larger market ETF. Its got a bunch of blue chip names tech names that are easy to be overvalued as well as some Tesla which is 80% hype. So there is a hype volatility factor associated with its companies.

Holding out a little longer before I put even more in.

CVX, AYX (building up my positions in them for a longer-haul)

And motley fool has been pumping up Luckin Coffee like crazy lately. I need a little time to look into it. Totally different sector for me to review.

Jumped in EOG and PXD today. Will continue to add with each 401K distribution. Always a good time to buy strong oil balance sheets (relatively), when Putin unwinds his short futures and goes long. Hoping to take profits and roll into DIS, RCL, UAL in the summer.....if this doesn't pay off, I give up.

I have PSX which has been shredded with the rest of the oils.
Think it has a solid balance sheet and considering buying more but will most likely talk myself out of it and look at other things.

To answer your question, they are all "cheap" right now for the most part. Many really good companies are trading for less than their book value. Now that I'm only playing with $10k, I'd rather pick up a $30 stock than an $80 stock. So cheap for me is the share price.

Was looking at Pioneer, Cimarex and for a midstream play, TransCanada. Or I could just buy the whole sector.

thirdcoast said:

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Jumped in EOG and PXD today. Will continue to add with each 401K distribution. Always a good time to buy strong oil balance sheets (relatively), when Putin unwinds his short futures and goes long. Hoping to take profits and roll into DIS, RCL, UAL in the summer.....if this doesn't pay off, I give up.

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Good buys because there is a good chance of both being taken over by one of the big 3 in the coming year, I'm kind of surprised Pioneer is still around given all of their operational and financial issues the past year.

Let's just hope they don't get bought below current prices!

I really don't think EOG and Pioneer get bought out over this. They have very strong positions and there's a huge incentive for premiumless mergers. Top players are going to have to pony up for EOG/pioneer vs buying what little fringe guy is currently about to be bankrupt.

Edit: wrong emoji

$38.46. Let's try this thing ...

JSKolache said:

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$38.46. Let's try this thing ...

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I just laugh at my purchase on this earlier this week at this point. What can you do. $38!!!!

YouBet said:

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Blanco Ag said:

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I'm not convinced EV's are ultimately more environmentally friendly than ICE's, and even if they are that electricity needs to be generated somehow.

I know it's trendy to hate on fossil fuel based companies, but I'll damn sure buy low.

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How about the fact that I'm not sure anyone has even studied or determined if our grid can handle an EV revolution.

And thanks to OP for the reminder on this buy. Been meaning to get some.

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Tesla owners had to wait in lines that were hours long to charge over the holidays. And that's *just* Tesla owners. *NO WAY* our grid could handle an EV revolution.

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/the-grid/tesla-owners-wait-in-long-lines-to-recharge-over-holidays/

CSTXAg92 said:

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YouBet said:

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Blanco Ag said:

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I'm not convinced EV's are ultimately more environmentally friendly than ICE's, and even if they are that electricity needs to be generated somehow.

I know it's trendy to hate on fossil fuel based companies, but I'll damn sure buy low.

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How about the fact that I'm not sure anyone has even studied or determined if our grid can handle an EV revolution.

And thanks to OP for the reminder on this buy. Been meaning to get some.

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Tesla owners had to wait in lines that were hours long to charge over the holidays. And that's *just* Tesla owners. *NO WAY* our grid could handle an EV revolution.

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/the-grid/tesla-owners-wait-in-long-lines-to-recharge-over-holidays/

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It can't. People are f'ing delusional on that topic. My gas guzzler is paid for. I'm gong to drive it for four more years and then when I'm 50 (assuming we aren't living in communist USA) I'm going to buy a ridiculously over-priced car that uses as much gas as possible.

$35

This is all but a guaranteed deal for a 20-year time horizon. That dividend.

Ducks4brkfast said:

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$35

This is all but a guaranteed deal for a 20-year time horizon. That dividend.

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I said that at $50. Still like them.... but it could keep going.

PDEMDHC said:

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Ducks4brkfast said:

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$35

This is all but a guaranteed deal for a 20-year time horizon. That dividend.

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I said that at $50. Still like them.... but it could keep going.

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I bought back in January @ ~$70

I'm more of an options trader and I just picked up XOM 1/15/21 $50C. Paid $1.5. Small risk, big reward IMO