third coast.. said:

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ive had an XOM drip for a couple years now that ive been putting money in to every month on auto pay. I hope a lot of the doom and gloom in this thread doesn't come to fruition

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For XOM, it won't. For the small cap guys that Cyp talks about it sure as hell will. EPD is safe, but won't grow.

53

The really interesting thing on XOM is its inclusion in a lot of index funds (given its the largest component of s&p energy).... so even though fundamentals of company are very challenged (and I still don't recommend the long), it seems to have more correlation to the broad market than oil/other energy stocks...

What's the bottom on XOM?

$40? $30?

Mid to low $40s with a dividend cut.

Except that it isn't.. which is really alarming to me. I agree that what you said makes sense, and would seem to be the case, but pull up 5 year chart with XOM vs SPY. Inverse relationship, even though you would think the index volume would prevent that disconnect from occurring.

Throw CVX and COP in that chart, they are quite a bit better.

Vicki leveraged the company to outbid chevron. They're going to have a lot of trouble keeping the dividend intact. At current price deck they will likely either have to significantly pair back development or cut dividend. I bet their leverage ratio starts to stress.

Stagecoach said:

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Bocephus said:

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Ranger222 said:

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I've heard it a couple times now that some of these oil companies are about to go "out of favor" like tobacco companies did. The "average" investor might feel guilty owning them, but that doesn't mean they will be a bad investment. People will not want to invest because of environmental effects, just like they would feel guilty owning tobacco companies for their health effects.

However some of the tobacco companies have been great investments the last 10 years. And they bring with them high dividend yields. You can invest in Altria for example with a 7%+ yield. Not bad.

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Who cares about staying in favor? This is about making money, not a popularity contest! I bought Altria bc all my friends from school and my ex wife smoked Marlboro lights. If I have to put up with all the second hand smoke, I damn sure am going to make money on it.

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If you cared only about making money, the dividend wouldn't impress you. XOM been losing investor's money for 5years total return. Just a tragedy really. But reality still.

"The king is dead."

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If it's over 53, I'm making money. A lot of us do not invest with only a 5-year goal in mind.

Bocephus said:

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Stagecoach said:

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Bocephus said:

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Ranger222 said:

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I've heard it a couple times now that some of these oil companies are about to go "out of favor" like tobacco companies did. The "average" investor might feel guilty owning them, but that doesn't mean they will be a bad investment. People will not want to invest because of environmental effects, just like they would feel guilty owning tobacco companies for their health effects.

However some of the tobacco companies have been great investments the last 10 years. And they bring with them high dividend yields. You can invest in Altria for example with a 7%+ yield. Not bad.

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Who cares about staying in favor? This is about making money, not a popularity contest! I bought Altria bc all my friends from school and my ex wife smoked Marlboro lights. If I have to put up with all the second hand smoke, I damn sure am going to make money on it.

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If you cared only about making money, the dividend wouldn't impress you. XOM been losing investor's money for 5years total return. Just a tragedy really. But reality still.

"The king is dead."

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If it's over 53, I'm making money. A lot of us do not invest with only a 5-year goal in mind.

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I inherited some shares 12 years ago with a low cost basis (basically zero cost basis to me technically) and am in 100 more shares at 50 from last week. I'm not even concerned and will keep holding.

I think that's been the prevailing wind for many years (like 70-80 years). Lots of current and ex employees and relatives treated it like the best and only reasonable investment. Years ago, I ran a 50 year analysis for a client illustrating just how bad of an investment XOM was related to a basic balanced portfolio. She was threatened by an aunt that she would be cut from will if she ever sold any of it. They were in total belief it was responsible for the level of wealth they had. My 50 year illustration highlighted just how wrong they were. I think I used a basic 3 pack of funds from Franklin Templeton.

I think today, not many people are buying it, and many of those that never thought they'd sell are in retirement and liquidating, or growing tired of returns lagging so badly... Hence the decline against an otherwise strong market.

Until the market starts luring more buyers than sellers, this will continue. Bocephus thinks that's anything below $60, we'll see how this plays out.

Which energy stock currently impresses you the most

TIA

cjsag94 said:

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Until the market doesn't start letting me buyers than sellers, this will continue. Bocephus things that's anything below $60, we'll see how this plays out.

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What does this mean?

ItsA&InotA&M said:

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cjsag94 said:

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Until the market doesn't start letting me buyers than sellers, this will continue. Bocephus things that's anything below $60, we'll see how this plays out.

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What does this mean?

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It's nonsensical gibberish don't you know!

I fixed my post...meant to say "Until the market starts luring more buyers than sellers". Combination of auto correct and bad writing, sorry for the confusion!

The second part is that the user Bocephus started this thread stating once it drops into the 50s as a buying signal.

Bought more 49.30

If anybody is considering XOM, they have a different than strategy than most all others. Listen to Darren Woods during Investor Day starting at 2:51:30 when he answers the question about why XOM has a different strategy. I loved his response and if you're a XOM long like me it'll make you feel better.

Bought some at $47.50.

Wouldn't be shocked if it got to $46 by close.

Stagecoach said:

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Bocephus said:

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Ranger222 said:

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I've heard it a couple times now that some of these oil companies are about to go "out of favor" like tobacco companies did. The "average" investor might feel guilty owning them, but that doesn't mean they will be a bad investment. People will not want to invest because of environmental effects, just like they would feel guilty owning tobacco companies for their health effects.

However some of the tobacco companies have been great investments the last 10 years. And they bring with them high dividend yields. You can invest in Altria for example with a 7%+ yield. Not bad.

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Who cares about staying in favor? This is about making money, not a popularity contest! I bought Altria bc all my friends from school and my ex wife smoked Marlboro lights. If I have to put up with all the second hand smoke, I damn sure am going to make money on it.

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If you cared only about making money, the dividend wouldn't impress you. XOM been losing investor's money for 5years total return. Just a tragedy really. But reality still.

"The king is dead."

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My cost basis is somewhere around $40-45. I've had it for somewhere around 25 years and have only ever made money on it, historically. If current trend continues it might be a losing proposition but it's not yet. Regardless, will probably ride this stock until the end. It's not enough of my portfolio that it will hurt us if it sinks.

Heck of a but at 47!

So is it dead man walking or a good trade?

I think it's some of both. I made 3x my yearly salary in 2019 shorting it and buying puts. Hopefully the Russian and Saudi price war pushes my 2020 trades over 7 figures in the coming weeks so I can exit it and start buying long positions in more appropriately positioned industries.

I have been catching falling knives through selling puts that are now deeply in the money. Why doens't this end up like 2015?

Cromagnum said:

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Bocephus said:

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Stagecoach said:

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Bocephus said:

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Ranger222 said:

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I've heard it a couple times now that some of these oil companies are about to go "out of favor" like tobacco companies did. The "average" investor might feel guilty owning them, but that doesn't mean they will be a bad investment. People will not want to invest because of environmental effects, just like they would feel guilty owning tobacco companies for their health effects.

However some of the tobacco companies have been great investments the last 10 years. And they bring with them high dividend yields. You can invest in Altria for example with a 7%+ yield. Not bad.

---

Who cares about staying in favor? This is about making money, not a popularity contest! I bought Altria bc all my friends from school and my ex wife smoked Marlboro lights. If I have to put up with all the second hand smoke, I damn sure am going to make money on it.

---

If you cared only about making money, the dividend wouldn't impress you. XOM been losing investor's money for 5years total return. Just a tragedy really. But reality still.

"The king is dead."

---

If it's over 53, I'm making money. A lot of us do not invest with only a 5-year goal in mind.

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I inherited some shares 12 years ago with a low cost basis (basically zero cost basis to me technically) and am in 100 more shares at 50 from last week. I'm not even concerned and will keep holding.

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How did you go about inheriting shares 12 years ago with basically zero cost basis?

i dont have any good answer for that. I at no time believed we'd actually get much of a worldwide production slowdown and that one solid demand shock would disrupt the industry, I also had little belief in the ability to sustain the Russia/opec alliance and that US shale would be much worse for it. A recovery could be as short as 6 months away but I'll be out of trade by then.

Back to your regularly scheduled XOM discussion

riley290 said:

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I think it's some of both. I made 3x my yearly salary in 2019 shorting it and buying puts. Hopefully the Russian and Saudi price war pushes my 2020 trades over 7 figures in the coming weeks so I can exit it and start buying long positions in more appropriately positioned industries.

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Congrats to you!

30wedge said:

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Cromagnum said:

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Bocephus said:

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Stagecoach said:

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Bocephus said:

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Ranger222 said:

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I've heard it a couple times now that some of these oil companies are about to go "out of favor" like tobacco companies did. The "average" investor might feel guilty owning them, but that doesn't mean they will be a bad investment. People will not want to invest because of environmental effects, just like they would feel guilty owning tobacco companies for their health effects.

However some of the tobacco companies have been great investments the last 10 years. And they bring with them high dividend yields. You can invest in Altria for example with a 7%+ yield. Not bad.

---

Who cares about staying in favor? This is about making money, not a popularity contest! I bought Altria bc all my friends from school and my ex wife smoked Marlboro lights. If I have to put up with all the second hand smoke, I damn sure am going to make money on it.

---

If you cared only about making money, the dividend wouldn't impress you. XOM been losing investor's money for 5years total return. Just a tragedy really. But reality still.

"The king is dead."

---

If it's over 53, I'm making money. A lot of us do not invest with only a 5-year goal in mind.

---

I inherited some shares 12 years ago with a low cost basis (basically zero cost basis to me technically) and am in 100 more shares at 50 from last week. I'm not even concerned and will keep holding.

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How did you go about inheriting shares 12 years ago with basically zero cost basis?

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It didnt cost me anything. I can sell it at any time for profit (to me). I have no idea what the original shares cost as they were bought decades ago.

Cromagnum said:

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30wedge said:

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Cromagnum said:

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I inherited some shares 12 years ago with a low cost basis (basically zero cost basis to me technically) and am in 100 more shares at 50 from last week. I'm not even concerned and will keep holding.

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How did you go about inheriting shares 12 years ago with basically zero cost basis?

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It didnt cost me anything. I can sell it at any time for profit (to me). I have no idea what the original shares cost as they were bought decades ago.

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Yikes. I am still dealing with inherited share basis 2-4 years after the deaths of my wife's family members. I don't know what estate taxes were like 12 years ago, but if it is material I would likely spend some time on finding your basis. It is amazing to me how broker dealers lose basis when there is a merger or two.