DallasAggie0 said:

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Call it the Soarin Twenties

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So is 2029 another end to the good times?

oldarmy1 said:

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oldarmy1 said:

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Bocephus said:

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Took a lot of profits and sold off multiple positions today. You can't time it but it is getting close

http://www.aei.org/publication/the-bond-market-and-the-stock-market-cannot-both-be-right/

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So a failed breakout after two attempts, a reverse head & shoulder with break to new highs? Right now it reads like the trigger has been hit, the fuse is lit and a trend upward is beginning.

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Stocks have traded sideways to down since Sept 2018, only getting back to even for most who held through it. The thought of selling out just as actual returns are breaking out is kinda weird - and EVERYONE knows I'm not a buy/hold forever guy.

What I wrote is 100% correct. The push upward began this week and now with todays close we'll see dip buying on trend for the next couple of months. I'll take a look then at all the dynamics.

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This was a good spot to start building a short position :P

Just messin with ya!

Ive got about 40% in cash. Bought AAPL in December and picked up some GS and BAC in early June. Been waiting on a bit of a correction. We are only down 6% so this is not like a gigantic meltdown yet. I just think, in general, you target long term buys and wait on a good price. If it doesn't come then move on.

Instead of bumping this thread in 4 months why don't you bump an old thread that was wrong. I'm sure they're plenty.

Motis B Totis said:

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Instead of bumping this thread in 4 months why don't you bump an old thread that was wrong. I'm sure they're plenty.

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We are at the mid-way point of this 4 month exercise and essentially break-even on the market. Obviously there has been a lot of volatility throughout that time, with about 5% potential upside if you got out and re-entered at the perfect time. Although, I will say, if this was all about 5%, we are talking about very different scenarios.

The premise of the getting out of the stock market was the article talking recession, pointing to yield curve inversion. I believe that inversion, and all of the volatility, is just a healthy dose of uncertainty stemming from politics/trade ware/etc. IN MY OPINION, the recession-to-be will happen or not based on how long the uncertainty plays out. If things clear up, the market will take off; if it drags on, recession may happen, but I'm not convinced it would last long, and further not convinced the draw down would be very significant in points or time.

I'm posting today because I am genuinely curious about the psychology at play here. For those who are trying to avoid potential losses by getting out of the market, are you still firmly on the side that it is time to be out right now? Or does the market's resiliency to date change your plan? If the market were to climb 5% from here, but the news hasn't changed, are you still out...in other words, are you out until the news gets better?

I know for me, I tend to bemoan missing out on upside far more than I fear the big down swing.

Still buying. Buying some more tomorrow.

Most millennial my age (~30) when asked keep talking about the impending recession and how they are looking to buy real estate when the market crashes (DFW).

Question I always ask...what's your horizon? Why are people getting out unless they are close to retirement?

[url] https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bulls-bears-the-broken-clock-syndrome/[/url]

Waiting on a pullback on a couple stocks but it ain't happening yet. I'll be patient for now. Still smiling with my AAPL purchase in early January, though! GS and JPM have also done well over the last six months.

oldarmy1 said:

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Bocephus said:

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Took a lot of profits and sold off multiple positions today. You can't time it but it is getting close

http://www.aei.org/publication/the-bond-market-and-the-stock-market-cannot-both-be-right/

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So a failed breakout after two attempts, a reverse head & shoulder with break to new highs? Right now it reads like the trigger has been hit, the fuse is lit and a trend upward is beginning.

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Or something like this...

This is an awfully odd one to gloat on. 4 months later and this call is barely in profit while riding through another correction. No doubt more volatility is on the way.

I am so dumb.

I assume you are intimating that sector weightings and/or stock picking is a form of market timing? I would agree with that, and there is a ton of debate over the value of that (active vs passive investment management). That's why many people say just buy the S&P.

As for me, I'm not a believer you can accurately time the market, meaning actually outperform in the process. However, as a professional, what I am talking about right now is how much risk does an investor need to take to reach their stated objectives. The reality is that most people set their allocation based on things like age and things Jack Bogle or Warren Buffet tell the masses on TV..like it's one size fits all. But I'm having a lot of discussions these days around the risk/reward equation. Many of my clients do not need market returns to easily meet their long term goals...but in the event of a sustained correction at the wrong time, it could derail a solid plan.

It's the difference between financial planning and investing though.

What I see from most professionals is a strategy of asset allocation designed to make some of the upside in the market, while also making some when it under performs or drops. Returns will be flatter, but less volatile over time, which serves most people very well.

Most professionals also underperform over longer time periods.

2/3rds of fund manager underperform annually, 92% underperform over 15 years.

Endo Ag said:

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Most professionals also underperform over longer time periods.

2/3rds of fund manager underperform annually, 92% underperform over 15 years.

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That's the active passive discussion... Not market timing discussion.

JJMt said:

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I've seen some presentations on the use of specific triggers to get out of and back into the market. Those triggers were backtested and the improvement of results over simply buy and hold were very, very significant.

I know that backtesting can be deceptive and misleading, but the adage that one can't time the market is also backward looking, no?

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That's technical trading, which can be effective, and is based on market action. It's basically a theory that past behavior repeats itself to some degree. It's tough to correctly identify the repeating behaviors.

Most investors, including OP's perspective, are basing decisions on broad economic news stories that have little to no directly timed correlation to market behavior. It may eventually be true, but a lot happens in the meantime, and there's no inverse indicator to get back in. That's the major difference between your reference and what most individual investors do, leading to under performance.

Buy and hold depends entirely upon when you were born and when you retire. It is not a strategy.

The widespread reliance upon index fund and passive investing is ripe for harvesting, and it inevitably will be.

cjsag94 said:

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Endo Ag said:

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Most professionals also underperform over longer time periods.

2/3rds of fund manager underperform annually, 92% underperform over 15 years.

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That's the active passive discussion... Not market timing discussion.

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Same discussion.

Endo Ag said:

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cjsag94 said:

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Endo Ag said:

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Most professionals also underperform over longer time periods.

2/3rds of fund manager underperform annually, 92% underperform over 15 years.

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That's the active passive discussion... Not market timing discussion.

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Same discussion.

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Not at all.

How active managers who are picking stocks and trading perform versus static benchmarks is not the same discussion as market timing. We are discussing people deciding when to be invested, and when to get out...regardless of how you choose to invest.

I agree with everything you said. The major difference with your story from what most people do, is that most people see triggers to get out. In this post, the trigger was yield curve inversion. So what's the trigger to get back in?

Typically, market performance is quite disjointed from economic factors (such as market pull back occurs sometime between yield inversion and recession, recovers at some point prior to our during recession, lasts a random amount of time, and can all occur very quickly).

So saying you can't time the market says you can't identify in real time all of those triggers, which is needed to out perform. Not to say some engineer hasn't found a secret sauce that works every time, but I'd be very skeptical personally that it was reality and not just a back tested theory.

I think online trading academy is making a killing convincing people there is a not-so-secret sauce.