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Time to unwind

20,829 Views | 133 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Charlie Murphy
cjsag94
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AG
Some observations .

1). OP hasn't responded in months. That's the problem with these doomsday predictions, whether on a message board or from a national author. It's so easy to drop in, get clicks, and move on. (Not really calling out OP here, more all the media folks who feed off the fear mongering that is so easy to do).

2). OP could absolutely still be right that things are going to drop. And if they do, all those yield curve experts will say I told you so. No one said there's a statute of limitations on any one indicator. And that's a big problem, once you've convinced yourself the end is near, how do you turn back if it doesn't happen as you expect?

3). And finally, with dividends, and any run up before any drop, you can be right that the market corrects, but still lose money by trying to time it, which is why I marked the SPY at the moment. Not to mention, you then have to re-enter when things feel there worst to actually profit from a pullback.

Happy Thanksgiving!
cjsag94
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AG
Happy New year!

Ended the year with $23 price appreciation, plus $2.95 in dividends. $25.95 on $296/share was good for 8.76% return from this call in mid July.

For those reacting to inverted yield curve, that thesis is still in tact. What is your strategy at this point?
Baby Billy
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AG
AggieMainland said:

When the market crashes in the next 4 months, I will be sure to bump this and laugh at all the people that though it was different this time. Good luck.

Still in cash?
Tumble Weed
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The cable news network just ran a commercial suggesting that I put more assets in gold due to the corona virus.

Do y'all buy gold watches or gold rings?
Outdoorag011
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If you are buying as a hedge.. gold coins and bars are the best version of gold to buy in my opinion. Both are extremely liquid. I wouldn't say we are headed for a crash in the next 4 months but we are do for at least a good size correction. When? My guess is 2021. Trump won't allow the economy to suffer before the election. We will just lower rates and print money to get us through it.
Bocephus
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AG
Dow is down 12.1 percent since my original post. I was expecting a much bigger correction (around 30 percent) bc of the negative yield bonds in Europe and an overinflated real estate market. Now wondering if Covid-19 might get us there.
DRE06
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AG
Bocephus said:

Dow is down 12.1 percent since my original post. I was expecting a much bigger correction (around 30 percent) bc of the negative yield bonds in Europe and an overinflated real estate market. Now wondering if Covid-19 might get us there.

This is the poster child of the "I told you so" market prediction.

Im sure tour thesis was predicting the simultaneous worldwide fear of a pandemic and Russia/SA oil war. Congrats on that.

You were 6 months early. But I'm sure this would have been bumped even if it happened in another 6 or 12 month.

Are you back in the market yet? Please post the day you get back in so we can all know that you perfectly timed the bottom.
Bocephus
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AG
DRE06 said:

Bocephus said:

Dow is down 12.1 percent since my original post. I was expecting a much bigger correction (around 30 percent) bc of the negative yield bonds in Europe and an overinflated real estate market. Now wondering if Covid-19 might get us there.

This is the poster child of the "I told you so" market prediction.

Im sure tour thesis was predicting the simultaneous worldwide fear of a pandemic and Russia/SA oil war. Congrats on that.

You were 6 months early. But I'm sure this would have been bumped even if it happened in another 6 or 12 month.

Are you back in the market yet? Please post the day you get back in so we can all know that you perfectly timed the bottom.


I bought in a little on Monday. We haven't even reached 52-week lows on most stocks so I'm still waiting. As I said, I don't think this virus is the big one. There are other financial issues out there. I've been buying XOM and DIS and will continue to buy if they go lower.
Phil Rirruto
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Cool story warren
aggiebq03+
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Bocephus said:

Dow is down 12.1 percent since my original post. I was expecting a much bigger correction (around 30 percent) bc of the negative yield bonds in Europe and an overinflated real estate market. Now wondering if Covid-19 might get us there.

It has been a bigger correction, you just got out at the wrong time.
Bocephus
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AG
aggiebq03+ said:

Bocephus said:

Dow is down 12.1 percent since my original post. I was expecting a much bigger correction (around 30 percent) bc of the negative yield bonds in Europe and an overinflated real estate market. Now wondering if Covid-19 might get us there.

It has been a bigger correction, you just got out at the wrong time.


It's been 20 percent from the high. Technically it is a bear market. Like I said, I expected joblessness, housing market correction and a recession. I'm not sure if Covid will be a trigger for this or simply a blip.
AggieMainland
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AggieMainland said:

When the market crashes in the next 4 months, I will be sure to bump this and laugh at all the people that though it was different this time. Good luck.

Damn. 4 months off. You guys were right. I was too pessimistic. You win.
AggieMainland
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ehrmantraut said:

AggieMainland said:

When the market crashes in the next 4 months, I will be sure to bump this and laugh at all the people that though it was different this time. Good luck.

Still in cash?

Yes
South Platte
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AggieMainland said:

ehrmantraut said:

AggieMainland said:

When the market crashes in the next 4 months, I will be sure to bump this and laugh at all the people that though it was different this time. Good luck.

Still in cash?

Yes
AggieMainland been waiting for the hardcore bump . . .

thirdcoast
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AG
Props to OP.
Deputy Travis Junior
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What a complete clown bump. OP misses an epic end to 2019 because he was busy chicken little'ing, and then tries to pass off a virus-induced market panic as the correction he predicted.
Bocephus
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AG
Deputy Travis Junior said:

What a complete clown bump. OP misses an epic end to 2019 because he was busy chicken little'ing, and then tries to pass off a virus-induced market panic as the correction he predicted.


Struggle with reading comprehension? I already said this is not what I expected. I'm still waiting for that correction. I did buy a few stocks this morning but am trying to be deliberate.
cjsag94
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AG
Pretty obvious that recession is now coming. Therefore, forevermore, this will be used as yet another data point to validate yield curve predicting a recession. But with the gift of hindsight and in the moment, I hope we can all agree the curve inverted erroneously and that the recession was not on its way. This recession will occur for a completely different set of reasons than what led to the inversion.

That's the issue with using these anecdotes. Over time, they can be told by leaving out the rest of the story.
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Bocephus
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AG
We are gonna need our own version of the Marshall plan to fix what a month inside our houses is going to do to this economy
cjsag94
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AG
It'll all be good!

On the one hand... In the short term....Divorce attorneys are going to make a killing with a few more weeks stuck at home.

For those that take the more pleasant path...Medical revenue from end of year scheduled c-sections will explode.

Both will help the economy a bit!
Bocephus
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AG
Sold off a bunch today. Locking in gains. Unwinding again.
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
Hendrix
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AG
Same.
topher06
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Bocephus said:

Sold off a bunch today. Locking in gains. Unwinding again.
Thanks for letting us know you sold off again.
Charlie Murphy
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Should we still be in cash here?
DRE06
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AG
Lol. Get in stay in. Buy in more during a dip.
Medaggie
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This thread like the Tesla thread just reinforces that no one knows what is going to happen and its all a guess.

The only strategy is to keep putting money every month into the market and in 20-40 yrs, you will be ahead of the vast majority of people who try to time the market.

This brings back memories talking to a friend during the housing crash when he finally could not stand the heat and took a total cash position right at the market low and missed out on atleast a year of upswing.
TxAG#2011
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OP in March: Buying a few stocks. Still waiting on a correction.

OP in November: Sold off a bunch. Locking in my gains. Time to unwind again.

Notice there was no actual advisement when to get back in. Only when to sell. Only profits. Should start a paid group.

aglaes
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AG
Do you think the market is near a peak prior to a crash? Do you think the Dow will drop to some level significantly lower than it is today? Then it might be a good time to put some money in a safe place and wait. You could be wrong, but I doubt it.
Charlie Murphy
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Not sure you noticed that this thread was started 2 years ago with the OP suggested to sell and that the market was "getting close".
 
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