Prayers.

flashplayer said:

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If there is anything they have always wanted to do together but have not been able to, I'd be happy to help pitch in and make it happen for them if that's something they'd be open to.

Otherwise I will remember their struggle and be asking for their peace and comfort with each other and with God.

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sending prayers up...and agree with flash...if there is anything they have been wanting to do together, I would absolutely chip in to give them a lasting memory that could help pull him through this tough time...

I've talked a lot about ending diagonals, and yall know I'm watching a big one on SPY right now. But I want to take a minute to show an example of why they happen, how you know they are happening, and the sentiment that caused it and will most likely cause a reversal.

Remember that its an exhaustion pattern. What is exhaustion in stock trading? It's when a trending move is showing signs of reaching its limit. What are those signs?

1. The previous move up was a strong trend, often times feeling unreasonably strong.
2. The strongest part of the trend ended and was retraced by 50% or less.
3. Consolidation within a price range above (or below in a declining stock) the previous high (or below the low) causing price overlap.
4. Despite the lack of strength previously exhibited, price stays moving in the direction of that previous trend.
5. Mostly declining volume

Those characteristics are not how you chart the ED, more just the general things that need to present for it to exist.

Let's look at an example.

SNCY had been trending down for a couple years. But in august, it helds it's first higher low, even if inclemently. The reaction upward wasn't anything to get excited about and was retraced pretty deep. There was some signs of volume coming in, but nothing that was clear as day going to boost the stock up. The most noteable news was an insider selling shares for tax obligations, Wolfe Research initiating a $14 price target, and a hurricane that led to this being speculated the airliner might be hit hard. In other words, nothing clearly bullish and a bunch of news on both sides. If you are following the news, you are looking in the wrong place.



Shortly after this, and before earnings, the stock started to move up strongly.



But with earnings looming, and the stock looking overbought, was it a buy?

The answer ended up being yes. After earnings, the price gain over the span of just a month was 63%. I don't care what the historical chart looks like, that's a massive move in a short timeframe.



Ok, so you're staring at this chart now. You missed it. Do you jump in now? Will it continue its pace? Will it crash back down? I have my methods of attempting to determine answers to those questions. But this isn't about those questions. So let's just see what happened next.



Boom. The strong move corrects by 38.2%, which is one of the main fib retracement zones. So at this point we have

1. A strong trend that feels a little unreasonable
2. The strongest part of the trend was retraced less than 50% and we are possible seeing a reaction off of it.

We have the conditions for an ending diagonal to take shape. Does that mean we are setting up a trade? No. Diagonals are choppy and unpredictable until halfway completed, and since they are exhaustion moves, the advance is expected to slow. Your money is likely better somewhere else more trending. BUT, since we have the conditions of the start of an exhaustion, we watch it and see if we can get a setup for the storng reversal that we absolutely do want to trade.



Now you will see two boxes. The lower is where the trend was expected to get to, as high as the 161.8% extension. The upper is where you would expect the entire move to top out at. This blew through the lower box and all the way to the expected final target. That's called an extension. Sentiment got so extreme following earnings, the stock went "too far too fast". That is more common than you think, which is why I always caution you guys when you are asking the board if you should buy something that has already broken out and extended high.

Now there is no guarantee the stock will go higher again. But knowing what is in place, I can tell you that the default expectation should be that if it advances, it can not be expected to do so as quickly or as strongly as the previous move. This happened with NVDA. How many people piled into NVDA only after it's massive breakout. Ya, you made some gains. But you missed the meat. You jumped in for the upward chop. Your money has been productive, but you're trapped in time. You needed to be in it BEFORE the meat of the move. Not after. Anyway.. let's fast forward again as it plays out.



Like clockwork, we have an overlapping continuation of the trend. Volume is a tough read with some strong spikes, but if you look at the average in blue, you can see it level off and start to decline. And if you look at the biggest spike, to have that much volume and not even get a new high is NOT a sign of strength. In fact, that one volume spike is warning you that sentiment is failing up here and to be careful.

So let's go back to our list to determine if we are in an exhaustion pattern..

1. The previous move up was a strong trend, often times feeling unreasonably strong. - CHECK
2. The strongest part of the trend ended and was retraced by 50% or less. - CHECK
3. Consolidation within a price range above the previous high causing price overlap. - CHECK
4. Despite the lack of strength previously exhibited, price stays moving in the direction of that previous trend. - CHECK
5. Mostly declining volume - IFFY, but can be CHECK

It's chopping up and down with each new high being sold to a slightly higher low. Classic. The trendlines are converging tell you the pattern is coming to its end soon. At this point I apply the waves to it. I don't even really need the waves of the previous moves, though I will show them anyway.



If you look at the green extension, its measuring the length of the first wave of the exhaustion pattern from the bottom that followed. A diagonal will usually target the 161.8% extension of its first wave, with the 4th wave (or the 2nd higher low) "usually" overlapping the 1st wave high. We get that here. So it's pretty apparent.. this thing is on its final leg. We expect one more high, though nothing is ever guaranteed. It is already deep into exhaustion and just had yet another day with significant volume spike that failed to push the stock to a new high. Strike 2.

So at this point, somewhere between $18 and $20 is likely to end this thing. The last move CAN be a big one. Please don't think it can't. It's called an "overthrow" when it happens and might even be another volume spike. When those happen, they are the biggest fakeouts in the world.

What is all of this telling us? Well we have all of the conditions in place and mostly completed for an exhaustion. The ting about exhaustion, and ending diagonals, is that when sentiment finally turns, price will almost always target the region that started the exhaustion, at the very least. In this case, that would be the $13 - $14 area, with the lower end being the last low before exhaustion started, and the higher end being the wave 2 low of the exhaustion pattern.



The other characteristic of exhaustion completing, is that it usually unwinds to that area within the same time frame that it took the exhaustion to complete. Since it hasn't yet completed, that timeframe is mostly undetermined. But we can start to anticipate what it might look like using the converging trendlines and the 161.8% extension target.

I use the "fib time zone" drawing tool on trading view. There is a similar one on TOS. My first click is the beginning of the axhaustion pattern at the last low, and the second click is the expected end. I want 0, 1, 1.5, 1.618, and 2 showing.

0 = beginning
1 = end
1.5 = Half the time from 0 to 1 plotted forward
1.618 = 61.8% of the time from 0 to 1 plotted forward
2 = The exact amount of time from 0 to 1 plotted forward.

This tells me that at the VERY MINIMUM, the date the 2 falls on is the earliest I would choose for the reversal back to $13-$14. While it can happen quicker than that, I know that if buying puts, I need to give myself enough time. And with the maximum amount of time for the reversal taking through late May, I probably need an expiration into June at the earliest.



So without this move up even completing, I know I am looking for a minimum target of $14, maximum target of $13, and I know that I need to pick an options chain June or later. That's a lot of weapons to have on your belt considering most of you probably just guess when picking expirations and strikes.

Take the expected price at exhaustion and look at the out of the money strikes below it. Let's say $18 strike. Subtract the minimum target of $14. We're left with $4.00. That's what I expect the options price to be on expiration day should my minimum target get hit EXACTLY at the point of expiration. I don't care about theta premium. I don't care about volatility. I am planning the most conservative potential trade because the last thing I want to do is take a chance coming up short on time.

The next step would be to look at the options chain and find a strike and date where the price of the put is no higher than $2.00. Even if this hasn't topped yet, I can form a start position and know that I am very likely to get a 2x on my trade. And if that same option gets cheaper, I can add to it. If no options can guarantee me a 2x, then I need to either wait for price to move higher toward target until they do, or just recognize that the market is not allowing me to make enough reward on my risk to chance it.

I hope you learned something here. These are HIGH PROBABILITY trades. But please don't mistake them for guarantees. NOTHING is guaranteed in the stock market. I have puts on 2-3 names right now that absolutely completed ending diagonals but never reversed all the way to target. But in the long run, if I take a consistent sized trade on every single one of these, I will probably win 65-75% of them, maybe more. And the winners will be 2x or more while the losers are 1x. Over the long run, I make money. And many of them are homeruns. Think of it like blackjack. If you play a consistent bet and consistent system, you might win a little might lose a little. But doubling down and splitting when the conditions are maximized pushes the winners far ahead of the minimum bet losers.

Put this stock on your radar. Because I am absolutely going to be playing the reversal if the options pricing lets me. I will alert here if I do.

**had to make some edits. Had quite a few errors in the post.

Love the read. Waaaay above my pay grade.

If yall want a stock that's pretty low risk high reward right now, I'd say BX sitting at $164.50. You can use the last low as a stop at $158.46. If it can get back above $180, you can move the stop up to $170 range, locking in green. The ideal target range would be $217-$237. The timeline is by mid fall and likely earlier. Below the last low and there's a chance a major long-term top is in, so best to avoid. If target gets hit, THAT would likely be a major long-term top. Don't hesitate to scale out as it approaches.

Short-term


Long-term

GRAB - Played this one late last year and made a little, then got out as it approached extremely overbought. Apparently positive sentiment is reaching extremes again. Is it about to get an earnings boom, or are you hearing bagholders trying to convince you into becoming their exit liquidity?

Going back to 2022, this had an initial rise off it's ATL. Happened in a 3-wave move. Not impulsive. From there, it had a contracting triangle pattern ABCDE that took a year and a half through mid 2024. Triangles can only happen in two places.. Either the 4th wave consolidation period before a final 5th wave in a 5-wave move, or the B wave consolidation before a final C wave in a 3 wave move. Considering that this one followed a move up off an ATL, it's not a 4th wave triangle. That leaves it as a B with a C to follow. Then in the back half of 2024, it got it's C. A clear 5-wave impulsive move up with a volume spike that preceded the top.



Notice the volume shelf. Notice the gray support zone box centered around that shelf where the converging trendlines of the triangle extend to.

Could there be one more high? I can't definitively say no. Though the 5th wave of what I have labeled as (C) did extend over 300% the distance covered by its first wave. As you can see by the red retracements, support has held nicely. I have it as topped in an (A)(B)(C) 3-wave pattern. What would follow is a drop into consolidation likely back in the range from where it came as the support box shows. But it could also drop to new lows. The volume shelf would act as something fierce though, and hard to break through. My orange count is the alternative which shows a longer leading diagonal pattern that would need a further drop back to the volume shelf before getting one more high. I view an immediate one more high without first dropping lower as least likely. And I'll show you why..



Removing all of the waves and trendlines, but turning on all of my EMA's, the very longest-term EMA, 987, which is a fib number covering just under 3 years, was perfect ticked on the last high. That was the most extreme resistance level, and it couldn't break through. It's now sitting on short-term EMA support with the 8, 21, 34, 55, and 89 immediately below the price, and the mid-term EMA's, 144, 233, and 377 just above the daily volume shelf in the $4 range.

Lasty, the Ichimoku cloud shows a red resistance cloud that price worked up to the top of and hit its head. The leading span in light green is touching the conversion line in orange. Breaking back below that orange conversion line is bearish, especially with the red cloud overhead, having already broke below the green support cloud.



And if we move to weekly candles, you will see that the only support is a paper thin green cloud than can be easily knifed through. The darker green line that lags the price is called the lagging span. It's simply the action of price plotted 21 periods back. When price forms a high and then retraces off of it, you simply find the high of the lagging span, trace that straight down to the price level of the candle under it, and that is the expected target within 21 periods of the actual high. That would put GRAB back in the mid $3's by mid April. The only thing that invalidates that is a new high, or it not happening by mid April. It's what I consider an "open target" through that time period.



So after going through a multitude of my technical checklists, do I want to bet my money on GRAB? The answer is no, not yet. Of course, all of this could mean nothing and could be wrong, and I could miss out on huge gains. But the point of technical analysis, to me, is that anything can truly happen in the market. Technical analysis helps distill the anything down to a drinkable brew. And this brew simply isn't ready for my capital. Do your own DD. Let me know where I might be wrong. I promise, I'm all ears. Just showing what I see from multiple viewpoints.

Work days without stonks.

Now I gotta work and do stuff