VST was a steal at 161.80 pre market. Wish I had taken a much larger bite.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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flashplayer said:

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I keep wondering if every one of these red days is big money leaving and the subsequent run ups are retail dip buying what's going to be a heavy bag. Anyone have insight on that?

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Retail has added more long exposure since the January dip, majority in the MAG 7, than at any other time.

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A fair amount of this is likely passive IRA and 401k investments to start the new year. Mutual funds and certain ETFs have to be Mag 7 due to their overall weighting within the S&P.

tysker said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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flashplayer said:

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I keep wondering if every one of these red days is big money leaving and the subsequent run ups are retail dip buying what's going to be a heavy bag. Anyone have insight on that?

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Retail has added more long exposure since the January dip, majority in the MAG 7, than at any other time.

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A fair amount of this is likely passive IRA and 401k investments to start the new year. Mutual funds and certain ETFs have to be Mag 7 due to their overall weighting within the S&P.

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Sure. But would you consider it a good sign that those funds went long at a historically relevant clip while institutions didn't, or were selling?

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Added my last tranche to TLT. Huge exposure now. Don't want to see below $86 again but stop will be the last low in the $84's. Either I'm right and rates should start falling dramatically soon with this paying off nicely, or I'm wrong and I'll take a small loss and start looking at scenarios where rates are going higher sooner, maybe even a scenario where they stay range bound between 4% and 5%.

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I've been building a position in TLT as well, curious what your overall portfolio exposure % is for TLT.

Tormentos said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Added my last tranche to TLT. Huge exposure now. Don't want to see below $86 again but stop will be the last low in the $84's. Either I'm right and rates should start falling dramatically soon with this paying off nicely, or I'm wrong and I'll take a small loss and start looking at scenarios where rates are going higher sooner, maybe even a scenario where they stay range bound between 4% and 5%.

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I've been building a position in TLT as well, curious what your overall portfolio exposure % is for TLT.

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45% of total cash if you considered the TLT cost in my cash position. 20% of portfolio. If it makes a constructive move up off this low, I miiiggghtt raise it to 25%.

I'll reiterate that the money I put in TLT was always going to be a portion of my total cash position and funds I don't normally trade in lofty markets like this one. This was an attempt to make a solid return on that money far and above money market funds. So far, it hasn't worked. But it still has a chance.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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SOXL does seem like it wants to climb back. Bought the dip since I sold some earlier this week.

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Fun ride up.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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tysker said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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flashplayer said:

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I keep wondering if every one of these red days is big money leaving and the subsequent run ups are retail dip buying what's going to be a heavy bag. Anyone have insight on that?

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Retail has added more long exposure since the January dip, majority in the MAG 7, than at any other time.

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A fair amount of this is likely passive IRA and 401k investments to start the new year. Mutual funds and certain ETFs have to be Mag 7 due to their overall weighting within the S&P.

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Sure. But would you consider it a good sign that those funds went long at a historically relevant clip while institutions didn't, or were selling?

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I think its both good and bad. Margin debits are high (good for banks and brokers) and the leverage has clearly benefited retail investors. Retail has been right, at least directionally. Welcome to the democratization of the stock market!

Institutions have been pulling out of the Mag 7 to the extent they can. Some have to stay in because their investors question why they aren't meeting benchmarks. Every institution that has tried to short TSLA has had its face ripped off. (I talked with a buddy this weekend whose old firm had a fund shut down because they tried to short TSLA and lost multiple billions of investor money.)

I don't think retail will be able to be complacent with their Mag 7 investments much longer. This issue will be does the risk off trade get exposed slowly or all at once. TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA have had their higher highs and now are breaking trend with lower highs. Not sure if META or the GOOGs have quite gotten there yet. That being said, I'd say in a world where an auto company that dabbles in EV credits has a $1 trillion market cap, anything goes.

TSLA above $349 has a chance to run to $365. Could see some chop back into the low $330's before doing it though. Based on the move off the lows, I do not think the bottom is in, so I consider any strength, at this time, merely the action within a relief bounce. Over $365 and that could change.

One last thing on TLT. There is a lot of exposure to the short side. A significant move up could cause a degree of squeezing. Something I'll be watching for.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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One last thing on TLT. There is a lot of exposure to the short side. A significant move up could cause a degree of squeezing. Something I'll be watching for.

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Do you play this with options at all or strictly shares?

Touchless said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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One last thing on TLT. There is a lot of exposure to the short side. A significant move up could cause a degree of squeezing. Something I'll be watching for.

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Do you play this with options at all or strictly shares?

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Considering this is my "safe money", generally no. If I find a short-term setup I like, I might take a small position. But unlikely.

Anyone playing app before earnings?

aggies4life said:

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Anyone playing app before earnings?

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I'm long on them with shares. Not really playing earnings either way.

ALB earnings today. Holding the double bottom for now.

Solid day for CREX. Almost back to even. Holding strong.

Boy I ****ed up on that one and didn't buy 11/1 like my rules said when it was at $33

I love Robinhoods interface and they have really increased their offerings. I had it as my backup broker but I find myself spending more and more time on there since my TDA account was converted to Schwab. Pioneered free trading, 24hr trading, high rates on idle cash, low margin rates and I find Schwab down/having issues far more often than RH.

SHBM shares but I was still mad about the entire GME debacle haha

Edit - Schwab sucks, bring back TDA app.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Tormentos said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Added my last tranche to TLT. Huge exposure now. Don't want to see below $86 again but stop will be the last low in the $84's. Either I'm right and rates should start falling dramatically soon with this paying off nicely, or I'm wrong and I'll take a small loss and start looking at scenarios where rates are going higher sooner, maybe even a scenario where they stay range bound between 4% and 5%.

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I've been building a position in TLT as well, curious what your overall portfolio exposure % is for TLT.

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45% of total cash if you considered the TLT cost in my cash position. 20% of portfolio. If it makes a constructive move up off this low, I miiiggghtt raise it to 25%.

I'll reiterate that the money I put in TLT was always going to be a portion of my total cash position and funds I don't normally trade in lofty markets like this one. This was an attempt to make a solid return on that money far and above money market funds. So far, it hasn't worked. But it still has a chance.

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Whats your price average on TLT? What do you see as the upside price?

jamey said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Tormentos said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Added my last tranche to TLT. Huge exposure now. Don't want to see below $86 again but stop will be the last low in the $84's. Either I'm right and rates should start falling dramatically soon with this paying off nicely, or I'm wrong and I'll take a small loss and start looking at scenarios where rates are going higher sooner, maybe even a scenario where they stay range bound between 4% and 5%.

---

I've been building a position in TLT as well, curious what your overall portfolio exposure % is for TLT.

---

45% of total cash if you considered the TLT cost in my cash position. 20% of portfolio. If it makes a constructive move up off this low, I miiiggghtt raise it to 25%.

I'll reiterate that the money I put in TLT was always going to be a portion of my total cash position and funds I don't normally trade in lofty markets like this one. This was an attempt to make a solid return on that money far and above money market funds. So far, it hasn't worked. But it still has a chance.

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Whats your price average on TLT? What do you see as the upside price?

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Price average is now $90, General target is $105-$110 with a small chance of $120 in a couple years, though my base expectation is that the next bottoming in rates is the last one we see for a long time.

TTD sucking serious wind after lackluster earnings.

CFLT up 25%

HOOD did a video call that looked like a World Series Game 7 press conference

EliteZags said:

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HOOD did a video call that looked like a World Series Game 7 press conference

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I bought some at the beginning of the earnings announcement and had a nice little run up. I guess I'll hold -- they seem committed to continuing to add pieces to make it a more serious trading app and less gamified. It still has a long ways to go. I have an account just for jokes with play money that I'll gamble with on occasion. Curious to see if they can truly corner the casual investor/trader market from here on out.

I saw they also announced a more robust desktop trading platform, but I've not seen it or heard anything about it yet. I'm sure it's super basic.

transferred my entire Roth to Robinhood during their 3% promo last year and got nearly a free full year's contribution upfront, untaxed, and on top of contribution limits which was insane

held back on rolling over old 401Ks there which would've been a 5 figure bonus, since it'd eventually get taxed and inhibit backdoor Roth, still maybe should've done it. They now have a 2% promo til April

serious capital came in from those promos, shouldn't have stopped buying after the teens

still on waiting list for the 3% universal cash back card


here's the desktop platform

EliteZags said:

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transferred my entire Roth to Robinhood during their 3% promo last year and got nearly a free full year's contribution upfront, untaxed, and on top of contribution limits which was insane

held back on rolling over old 401Ks there which would've been a 5 figure bonus, since it'd eventually get taxed and inhibit backdoor Roth, still maybe should've done it. They now have a 2% promo til April

serious capital came in from those promos, shouldn't have stopped buying after the teens

still on waiting list for the 3% universal cash back card


here's the desktop platform

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Thanks for sharing. I did take advantage of the Gold for the interest. Moved most of my emergency cash over there from the bank to get the 5.25%, now down to 4%, but nice to get a couple hundred bucks plus each month there.

Looks like the desktop platform is decent. I'm sure they'll continue to add there. They've clearly come a long way since the hard to trust them days during Covid when they blocked trading on certain stocks, etc

aggies4life said:

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Anyone playing app before earnings?

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We're being watched y'all!

https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/780c07a8-d5e0-4c34-ab8f-7dc1662f745a/audio

flashplayer said:

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We're being watched y'all!

https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/780c07a8-d5e0-4c34-ab8f-7dc1662f745a/audio

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What is this without having to log in?