Stock Markets

26,616,545 Views | 237782 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by El_duderino
Towns03
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

Going to reiterate what I posted last week.

I am out of all BTC miners. The charts look awful. If I miss it, I miss it. But this cycle is not like previous ones. You don't have to buy MARA as a proxy for BTC anymore. There are endless options now. These companies have not changed their ways. They devalue their shareholders, issue debt, and take on leverage AT THE HIGHS, only to get decimated at the lows. And each BTC high is a lower high for the miners. This will not end well. I don't want to be a part of it.

If you are in, I hope it works out for you.

The only one I'm holding is CORZ, and that's only because I was in before they came out of bankruptcy, I'm net free with booked profits, and have no reason to sell the rest. Additionally, they are still paying off debt and have made huge progress on that front. But they still have negative equity and significant debt. Because of that, they don't keep most of the BTC they mine, and they haven't leveraged themselves to add BTC to their balance sheet. In my opinion, while they will undoubtedly drop during the next BTC major selloff, I think they will sustain better than all the others who are highly leveraged and will be holding a massively declining asset on their balance sheets. This will set up CORZ to be the top performer for the next cycle, while all the rest are sweeping up ashes.
I'm stuck in Cleanspark. It's down 50% since I bought in, but they say they have $100MM in BTC that they mined....
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Billy Baroo said:

Thanks, I needed to hear that. Bought about 1,200 shares around $20 a few years ago and haven't sold a single one until today. Takes the sting out of WWR losses to be able to get that back and let the remaining 1k shares ride on indefinitely.
Talk about diamond hands.
I bleed maroon
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AG
I bleed maroon said:

I have a schizophrenic portfolio of PLTR holdings. I bought shares on the day they went public via direct listing (Sept. 30, 2020, not 2015 like someone said earlier). $9.50/share, so I'm happy with my potential 10-bagger tomorrow (assuming the price holds).

I have written covered calls on half my shares several times, sometimes expiring for a gain, sometimes (recently, for sure) rolling them out to higher strikes or expirations. This time, I have $80 calls for April, and I'm going to go ahead and let half my shares get called away.

At certain times, when I felt the stock had been unduly punished or rewarded, I have bought additional calls or puts. Currently have $40 puts exp 1/27, and $50 puts Mar 25. I expect (hope?) both to expire worthless, but they're in place for insurance. I have $30 Mar '25 calls (another 10-bagger bought last June, just before the latest run-up), and some $80 1/27 LEAPS calls. I bought the LEAPS ($40 puts and the $80 calls) as a strangle in November '24, feeling that it would boom or bust from where it was.

I'm happy with the overall outcome, of course, but I just don't see how they are worth a PE of 400 backward or 200 forward (not to mention trading at 90x revenue!) - so I'm OK with taking some profits by letting half the shares get called away.


Well, I chickened-out, and rolled the covered calls on half my shares out a month to $120 May (from $80 Apr). It cost me, but I hope it's worth it.
fauxstradamus
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AG
SLV up 7% in the past week. Are we finally gonna get that bull run?
Twisted Helix
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ToS seems to be the trading platform of choice for this crew. What hardware are you using? I'm on a 10yo mac and I need to update and upgrade. PC or MAC, dual or triple screens and stands?
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Laptop connected to dual screen monitors. Usually have TOS on my laptop screen at all times.
Heineken-Ashi
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agdaddy04 said:

Not wanting to pick on your overall methods, as your advice has been stellar, but it seems like PLTR hasn't really followed the waves you discuss.
I addressed this months ago and admitted as such.

Stock Markets - Page 6630 | TexAgs

Expanded on what me being wrong could mean here..

Stock Markets - Page 6633 | TexAgs

Posted an updated blueprint on a possible scenario, highlighting the levels where that too would invalidate

Stock Markets - Page 6670 | TexAgs

And if you followed this post on Jan 6, you would have bought the last pullback that I outlined in pretty detailed fashion, as I did. A pullback which hit the exact zone I was watching for

Stock Markets - Page 6718 | TexAgs

Updated on Jan 15th

Stock Markets - Page 6725 | TexAgs

Updated on Jan 16th

Stock Markets - Page 6727 | TexAgs

And notice, I haven't shown a wave count since November. That's because PLTR has never even gotten close to a minimum pullback in its total structure off the ATL. It's in a league of its own running on top level performance mixed with extreme bullish sentiment. It can go until it doesn't. This happens sometimes. I'm not going to change the way I do things because 1 company blows the market out of the water. When sentiment shifts on this and it has its first significant retracement, and it will at some point, I will be able to more accurately project the future.

And I can't search back beyond a year, but even in my wave analysis from 1-2 years ago, I always stated I was long term very bullish on PLTR. I got caught waiting for a pullback that never came, expecting the stock to do what most do. Instead, it blew through every resistance and has never looked back.

My charts are always blueprints and nothing more. I've stated this too many times to count. I use the levels of the blueprint to alert me on support and resistance, when its time to jump in and possibly time to exit. And I usually know when to pivot. This one, I didn't pivot until the meat of the move had happened.

Now if you read my posts from today, you will understand that I'm not being bearish. I'm not saying to GTFO. I'm saying get your original investment back because the move has now happened. This isn't GME. It's not likely to continue running. Everyone that wanted in got in last year with heavy volume. We are now at the point where the late money is coming in. Hence the decreasing shares trading at the bid. This tells me resistance is up ahead leading to more consolidation at best. Eventually, even the biggest bulls run out of energy. I can't predict when that will be for PLTR, and I won't try. Like I said earlier, it's dominating it's space and so far ahead of potential competition it now has its eyes set on traditional megacap defense industry giants.
El_duderino
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I'd say you're good with 32gb of ram and fiber internet (if possible) for faster fills due to lower latency. At the end of the day It works just fine on an iPad/iphone. I do use dual 27" monitors at home though. I can have my main chart on one screen and the option chain with active trader setup on the other screen which is nice.
DC901
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Also make sure your new computer doesn't not use shared memory with the video card. This will cause your to lose the advantage of having 32bg.
Here my suggestion specific:
CPU I7 or better
Memory 32gb or better
Stand alone GBU ie a video card with own memory.
If there is an option to increase the power supply get the biggest one they offer for that model.
This computer should get you through the next 4 to 5 years of use.
If you what a laptop top just make sure to order a docking station so you can run multiple monitors and a full size keyboard and mouse.
Heineken-Ashi
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If I had to fashion a wave count today on PLTR, it would look like this.



Confidence is literally minimal. But here's the thing I do know. Whether you believe in sentiment waves or not, there is a general rule of alternation. And it refers to both time and price. In EW, if Wave 2 is short in time and shallow in price, you can expect wave 4 to dip deep in price and take much longer to do so. If Wave 2 is deep in price but happens very quickly, you can expect wave 4 to take much much longer and be fairly shallow, often a triangle type formation. PLTR's pullbacks, given the structure that has price has move since 2022, have been shallow in price and fairly short in time. So I am expecting deeper and longer pullbacks as a base case. But I will be looking to add at the very very minimal retracement levels, just in case it keeps doing what is has been doing. Maybe 25% of what I want there. If it continues lower, I'll ad more. And if it gets to my pullback targets, I'll have my full position. And I will try and do a MUCH better job of alerting to breakouts. We had a chance to add option for this move, and I plain forgot they had earnings. Happy my small amount of shares I added went up, but just plain missed the golden option opportunity. Won't happen again.
BrokeAssAggie
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Market pulls back on a tweet that a phone call won't take place
Ragoo
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AG
BrokeAssAggie said:

Market pulls back on a tweet that a phone call won't take place
weren't sitting on the SPX 6000p like me?
BrokeAssAggie
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$603 calls
Charlie Conway
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Twisted Helix said:

ToS seems to be the trading platform of choice for this crew. What hardware are you using? I'm on a 10yo mac and I need to update and upgrade. PC or MAC, dual or triple screens and stands?
The trend in pc usage is moving towards ultrawide monitors to replace multiple monitor setups. You can get ultrawide 1440p (which I recommend) monitors for a pretty affordable now. The ultrawide helps clean up desk space, you dont have stands and hdmi/power cables runnign everywhere. And instead of filling the monitor just have windows open next to each other.
BrokeAssAggie
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Twisted Helix said:

ToS seems to be the trading platform of choice for this crew. What hardware are you using? I'm on a 10yo mac and I need to update and upgrade. PC or MAC, dual or triple screens and stands?


I just got a new Lenovo LOQ gaming laptop. Has been great so far. 32gb ram
El Chupacabra
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Anyone playing AMD or GOOG earnings today?

Heineken-Ashi
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Just bought QQQ puts. Have a bad feeling. Hopefully I'm wrong.
zgolfz85
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AG
El Chupacabra said:

Anyone playing AMD or GOOG earnings today?


I'm hoping to get out of AMD...so yeah kind of

It keeps getting up around my cost basis and then dipping again. Just hoping to get out breakeven at this point.
Diggity
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AG


crazy world
Heineken-Ashi
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Like I said. PLTR is now priced like Tesla. The expectation is that it keeps at this pace AND growing at the same rate with expanding profit margin for multiple years. Could it happen? Sure. But it sure leaves you exposed if even the pace of growth takes a breather.
I bleed maroon
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AG
Yep - that's why I layered in another round of puts on my ever-growing PLTR collection. May $80 puts, for the record.
Heineken-Ashi
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I bleed maroon said:

Yep - that's why I layered in another round of puts on my ever-growing PLTR collection. May $80 puts, for the record.
That's why I love protective puts. Limited risk, and if you are wrong, it's because the gains from your shares are outpacing the minimal loss of the puts. I do this with my silver position routinely.
E
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AG
Went net free on PLTR... wanted to do it a couple weeks ago but held out for earnings, glad I did.
harge57
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Lots of earnings this week on my big holdings. Planning to hold all through earnings and will likely trim back my positions on some of them after hopefully some earnings bumps.

UBER
GOOG
POWL
AMZN
harge57
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AG
Does the market know something about POWL's earnings? Makes me nervous when it's the only thing in the red going into earnings.
flashplayer
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AG
Doubtful the market knows anything or we wouldn't be sitting at half the daily volume right now.
El_duderino
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That whole sector is down today. GEV, VST, POWL, ETN, etc all red
Marauder Blue 6
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AG
POWL always seems to go down right before earnings.
ReturnOfTheAg
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AG
Anyone playing HTZ earnings next week?

Stocks gone up 50%ish in the last 3 months.

Wondering if I should get out now.
BrokeAssAggie
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VIX testing LOD
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
BrokeAssAggie said:

Market pulls back on a tweet that a phone call won't take place


Was this confirmed anywhere? Not seeing it on any official news sources.
BrokeAssAggie
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BucketofBalls99
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El Chupacabra said:

Anyone playing AMD or GOOG earnings today?



I've been sitting on 200 shares of GOOG since $135. But I'm in them for the long term
harge57
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AG
ProgN said:

DISCLAIMER: The following is just my personal opinion and I don't have any inside info regarding POWL's ER. This is just my own opinion after more analysis. Do your own DD and take the weekend to form your own gameplan and decisions.

POWL reports earnings on Thursday AH and the consensus EPS is $2.61/shr. My personal opinion is that they should smash that number. I think they should report in the $3.70+/shr. The reason for that figure is because they reported $3.79 and $3.77 per share the last 2 quarters. If you read into their last 2 conference calls, then you'd have picked up on the fact that their backlog remained steady at $1.3B. I don't know if their new manufacturing facility has come online this qtr, but iirc, it should've or is at least very close. Even without it, I don't see a reason why they won't print north of $3.70/shr since they've done it the last 2 qtrs with their past/current capacity. If their new facility went online during this qtr and were able to address that backlog, thus billable, then they could even print $4/shr EPS. I'm not betting on that scenario though. That said, if they do print $3.70+ EPS on Thursday vs. $2.61 expected, then they will fly and really explode if the idiot shorts get scared. Imho, the shorts are more fearful of Thursday than the longs should be.

I waited until this weekend to post this instead of during the trading week because it's best to do your own DD and decide what risk you're comfortable with free of emotion.

I wish everyone success but either way, I'm confident that we'll all drink at Valhalla.

Prog
Any thoughts on the typical "seasonal slowdown" they see in earnings for this quarter? Their last DEC. quarterly report showed a drop in revenue vs. the previous quarter, but it did not drop as much as usual. This was in that earnings report from the CEO. As you pointed out their backlog seems to be capped at $1.3 bn for the last 6 quarters, so maybe that means no seasonal drop off.

Quote:

Our first fiscal quarter was very much a continuation of the trends and strong results that we saw in our fourth quarter. Despite what is typically a seasonally slower period, we recorded $198 million of new orders
Earnings Report
BrokeAssAggie
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Picking up some 2/07 $600 spy puts here. $3.06 entry. Looking for a pullback to $6.01 and will trim around $3.50
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