Almost bought the SPX 6110p for $4 earlier today. Almost doesn't count though. Did swing trade spikes after aggressive down moves for a little more than three grand profit.
Stock Markets
26,653,470 Views |
237922 Replies |
Last: 26 min ago by Woods Ag
DISCLAIMER: The following is just my personal opinion and I don't have any inside info regarding POWL's ER. This is just my own opinion after more analysis. Do your own DD and take the weekend to form your own gameplan and decisions.
POWL reports earnings on Thursday AH and the consensus EPS is $2.61/shr. My personal opinion is that they should smash that number. I think they should report in the $3.70+/shr. The reason for that figure is because they reported $3.79 and $3.77 per share the last 2 quarters. If you read into their last 2 conference calls, then you'd have picked up on the fact that their backlog remained steady at $1.3B. I don't know if their new manufacturing facility has come online this qtr, but iirc, it should've or is at least very close. Even without it, I don't see a reason why they won't print north of $3.70/shr since they've done it the last 2 qtrs with their past/current capacity. If their new facility went online during this qtr and were able to address that backlog, thus billable, then they could even print $4/shr EPS. I'm not betting on that scenario though. That said, if they do print $3.70+ EPS on Thursday vs. $2.61 expected, then they will fly and really explode if the idiot shorts get scared. Imho, the shorts are more fearful of Thursday than the longs should be.
I waited until this weekend to post this instead of during the trading week because it's best to do your own DD and decide what risk you're comfortable with free of emotion.
I wish everyone success but either way, I'm confident that we'll all drink at Valhalla.
Prog
POWL reports earnings on Thursday AH and the consensus EPS is $2.61/shr. My personal opinion is that they should smash that number. I think they should report in the $3.70+/shr. The reason for that figure is because they reported $3.79 and $3.77 per share the last 2 quarters. If you read into their last 2 conference calls, then you'd have picked up on the fact that their backlog remained steady at $1.3B. I don't know if their new manufacturing facility has come online this qtr, but iirc, it should've or is at least very close. Even without it, I don't see a reason why they won't print north of $3.70/shr since they've done it the last 2 qtrs with their past/current capacity. If their new facility went online during this qtr and were able to address that backlog, thus billable, then they could even print $4/shr EPS. I'm not betting on that scenario though. That said, if they do print $3.70+ EPS on Thursday vs. $2.61 expected, then they will fly and really explode if the idiot shorts get scared. Imho, the shorts are more fearful of Thursday than the longs should be.
I waited until this weekend to post this instead of during the trading week because it's best to do your own DD and decide what risk you're comfortable with free of emotion.
I wish everyone success but either way, I'm confident that we'll all drink at Valhalla.
Prog
Got to love it. **** China.
Research exposes DeepSeek's AI training cost is not $6M, it's a staggering $1.3B
Research exposes DeepSeek's AI training cost is not $6M, it's a staggering $1.3B
China is *******
What does the tech world do on Monday?
Maybe it'll recover my O&G losses today
Maybe it'll recover my O&G losses today
infinity ag said:BrokeAssAggie said:
I had a really nice month.
How nice? What % did you go up?
I was up 4.89% in Jan. Decent but not the best.
~60%ish increase. Keep in mind I pretty much only trade options, week to 30 days out. I look for at least a 20% pop then go net free.
Oh 73%.
ProgN said:
DISCLAIMER: The following is just my personal opinion and I don't have any inside info regarding POWL's ER. This is just my own opinion after more analysis. Do your own DD and take the weekend to form your own gameplan and decisions.
POWL reports earnings on Thursday AH and the consensus EPS is $2.61/shr. My personal opinion is that they should smash that number. I think they should report in the $3.70+/shr. The reason for that figure is because they reported $3.79 and $3.77 per share the last 2 quarters. If you read into their last 2 conference calls, then you'd have picked up on the fact that their backlog remained steady at $1.3B. I don't know if their new manufacturing facility has come online this qtr, but iirc, it should've or is at least very close. Even without it, I don't see a reason why they won't print north of $3.70/shr since they've done it the last 2 qtrs with their past/current capacity. If their new facility went online during this qtr and were able to address that backlog, thus billable, then they could even print $4/shr EPS. I'm not betting on that scenario though. That said, if they do print $3.70+ EPS on Thursday vs. $2.61 expected, then they will fly and really explode if the idiot shorts get scared. Imho, the shorts are more fearful of Thursday than the longs should be.
I waited until this weekend to post this instead of during the trading week because it's best to do your own DD and decide what risk you're comfortable with free of emotion.
I wish everyone success but either way, I'm confident that we'll all drink at Valhalla.
Prog
I feel like on the November call they mentioned the new facility coming online February-early March 25. Thank you for sharing with the board. I've had a lot of success following your posts. HA as well.
Welcome to the clubhouse.Hunter_812 said:ProgN said:
DISCLAIMER: The following is just my personal opinion and I don't have any inside info regarding POWL's ER. This is just my own opinion after more analysis. Do your own DD and take the weekend to form your own gameplan and decisions.
POWL reports earnings on Thursday AH and the consensus EPS is $2.61/shr. My personal opinion is that they should smash that number. I think they should report in the $3.70+/shr. The reason for that figure is because they reported $3.79 and $3.77 per share the last 2 quarters. If you read into their last 2 conference calls, then you'd have picked up on the fact that their backlog remained steady at $1.3B. I don't know if their new manufacturing facility has come online this qtr, but iirc, it should've or is at least very close. Even without it, I don't see a reason why they won't print north of $3.70/shr since they've done it the last 2 qtrs with their past/current capacity. If their new facility went online during this qtr and were able to address that backlog, thus billable, then they could even print $4/shr EPS. I'm not betting on that scenario though. That said, if they do print $3.70+ EPS on Thursday vs. $2.61 expected, then they will fly and really explode if the idiot shorts get scared. Imho, the shorts are more fearful of Thursday than the longs should be.
I waited until this weekend to post this instead of during the trading week because it's best to do your own DD and decide what risk you're comfortable with free of emotion.
I wish everyone success but either way, I'm confident that we'll all drink at Valhalla.
Prog
I feel like on the November call they mentioned the new facility coming online February-early March 25. Thank you for sharing with the board. I've had a lot of success following your posts. HA as well.
I've traded POWL for about 2 years. I'm in it for the long haul this time around. Now a long term hold.
Imo, either buy and hold, or swing trading it will reward you. I just wish their BOD would open their eyes and split the ****er because the tiny float punishes LT investors due to manipulation of the shorts. They have the justification to split it 3:1 or 5:1 and the fact that they haven't is the only thing that pisses me off about POWL. When their BOD finally locate their balls and split, then hold on to your butts because the shorts are going to get decimated.SW AG80 said:
I've traded POWL for about 2 years. I'm in it for the long haul this time around. Now a long term hold.
I'm so sad I missed the CLS post earlier in the week…as in I literally just didn't see that one post somehow
zgolfz85 said:
I'm so sad I missed the CLS post earlier in the week…as in I literally just didn't see that one post somehow
Damn, me too
DC901 said:
Got to love it. **** China.
Research exposes DeepSeek's AI training cost is not $6M, it's a staggering $1.3B
Haha. I knew it
Live look at Frisco. Great pick by the way
That's true
Good to see an OG return.
Brilliant
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
59 South said:
Brilliant
59 South
Joined:
Jul 31, 2007
Posts:
2,497
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Selling premium on CSP's and CC's going good for you? I remember you'd mentioned it a few months ago and it was going well
A case study on playing the ending diagonal reversal. Yall might notice I've been studying ED's and their reversals and also posting engagement plays on some like ACHR yesterday. This is an example on ALK from last year.
Remember, ED's usually reverse near or to their point of origin in the same time that it took them to complete or less. That's why you will see timing fibs on my charts representing 1.5, 1.618, and 2. Those represent 50%, 61.8%, and 100% of the time that the ED took from bottom to top, projected forward. They can happen quickly, and they can also take the full time. It's always best to defer to the full time when planning a trade.
First, the larger context does matter. The reason being that we need to understand if we are expecting merely a retracement, or the start of a new impulse. It won't always be clear, as many cases will have scenarios in both directions. In this case, I was assuming the bottom was at the lows of 2023. From that standpoint, this ED could only be the top of some sort of corrective pattern based on the structure off that bottom. Whether it was a 3rd in a leading diagonal, a [1] in a larger diagonal, or [A], the basic expectation was that this would retrace, not become impulsive. So from that perspective, this reversal, upon the ED completing and not having a downside structure in place yet, should have only been expected to get back to $33 at it's very lowest point. Remember, this is referencing basic expectations once noticing a completed ED, wanting to take advantage of a reversal, and trying to understand what to expect.
How to play? There are multiple ways. But depending on your risk tolerance, those options can shrink fast.
1. You can straight up short from the ED top. This allows you to place a reasonable stop so as to not lose much should you be wrong. But this also requires margin and an account that has access to being able to short. If you can, then you would simply sell shares once the ED completes and you get the first sign of reversal, placing a stop at the next resistance point overhead. Your target to exit would be $33.24, likely taking profits along the way.
2. Buy puts. But this can be tricky, as it can't be expected that the move will happen quickly. I draw a retracement of the prior move up with the basic expectation that the first move down will hit between 38.2% and 61.8%. I then consider my timing. This one topped on April 22 and the reversal was valid through July 31. Looking at August puts, if there was a strike that could profit at least 2x in August at the 50% level, roughly $39, then it might be worth it to grab a start position. Your max gain would be significantly more than 2x. If say the $41 strike was going for $1.00. That means that $39 in August would net you 2x ($41-$39), and $33.24 would net you 7.76x ($41-$33.24). But given that you are still close to the top, and anything can happen, your risk is being completely wrong. Hence why I only recommend a quarter to half size position at that point. Say your normal trade is $1,000. You could have bought 4-6 contracts of that $41, with goal of selling 2-3 at the $39 level to get net free and return our cost. You then have risk free puts aiming for the max gain of the ED reversal. As the move starts to play out, you can look for a standard ABC type of formation, getting even more aggressive as the B starts to complete. In this case, there would have been multiple points to get more aggressive, but none of those points would have led to a sharp move down to target, so this one would have required you staying committed to the reversal within the full timeframe. That can be hard, but THAT is why choose expirations that cover the entire timeframe AND give some wiggle room, if possible. Ultimately, any puts chosen for August either at the top, or any retracement area, would have provided our expected max gain.
But max gain is not ALWAYS the case. That's why my target zone is usually starting at the 76.4% retracement. That's the point I've noticed in many cases that it fails to continue beyond. So I always plan to take some profits there.
Ultimately, ED reversals are the most reliable trades you can find aside from the nested 1-2 (i) (ii) breakout into a wave 3. That's because an ending diagonal is a stunted end to a previous trend where the bulls increasingly lose volume as they push the price in overlapping fashion. It's a signal that steam is running out. And once they have nothing left to give, the trend reverts back to where it started from as the opposite sentiment takes over. So when I see a potential ED, I will ALWAYS play the reversal if there's a profitable path. If the reversal is to the upside, I'm buying shares with a stop AND looking for options. If it's to the downside, I will almost always buy puts provided the first move is worth the risk. These will win more than they lose and the winners should far outpace the losers. My stop on options is ALWAYS assessed on my entry sizing. That means that I figure out the most I'm willing to lose and only enter sizing that will not go beyond that amount.
I hope this post helped. I will continue to post the setups. I wanted everyone to understand what I'm doing and why. While I use EW to identify these, this is not something specific to just EW. Any technical analysis can spot when a trend is drying up. This analysis goes beyond EW as I don't really care about what waves it takes to get there. I just know that in most cases, it's going to try and it's going to be one of the most predictable trades I can make.
Remember, ED's usually reverse near or to their point of origin in the same time that it took them to complete or less. That's why you will see timing fibs on my charts representing 1.5, 1.618, and 2. Those represent 50%, 61.8%, and 100% of the time that the ED took from bottom to top, projected forward. They can happen quickly, and they can also take the full time. It's always best to defer to the full time when planning a trade.
First, the larger context does matter. The reason being that we need to understand if we are expecting merely a retracement, or the start of a new impulse. It won't always be clear, as many cases will have scenarios in both directions. In this case, I was assuming the bottom was at the lows of 2023. From that standpoint, this ED could only be the top of some sort of corrective pattern based on the structure off that bottom. Whether it was a 3rd in a leading diagonal, a [1] in a larger diagonal, or [A], the basic expectation was that this would retrace, not become impulsive. So from that perspective, this reversal, upon the ED completing and not having a downside structure in place yet, should have only been expected to get back to $33 at it's very lowest point. Remember, this is referencing basic expectations once noticing a completed ED, wanting to take advantage of a reversal, and trying to understand what to expect.
How to play? There are multiple ways. But depending on your risk tolerance, those options can shrink fast.
1. You can straight up short from the ED top. This allows you to place a reasonable stop so as to not lose much should you be wrong. But this also requires margin and an account that has access to being able to short. If you can, then you would simply sell shares once the ED completes and you get the first sign of reversal, placing a stop at the next resistance point overhead. Your target to exit would be $33.24, likely taking profits along the way.
2. Buy puts. But this can be tricky, as it can't be expected that the move will happen quickly. I draw a retracement of the prior move up with the basic expectation that the first move down will hit between 38.2% and 61.8%. I then consider my timing. This one topped on April 22 and the reversal was valid through July 31. Looking at August puts, if there was a strike that could profit at least 2x in August at the 50% level, roughly $39, then it might be worth it to grab a start position. Your max gain would be significantly more than 2x. If say the $41 strike was going for $1.00. That means that $39 in August would net you 2x ($41-$39), and $33.24 would net you 7.76x ($41-$33.24). But given that you are still close to the top, and anything can happen, your risk is being completely wrong. Hence why I only recommend a quarter to half size position at that point. Say your normal trade is $1,000. You could have bought 4-6 contracts of that $41, with goal of selling 2-3 at the $39 level to get net free and return our cost. You then have risk free puts aiming for the max gain of the ED reversal. As the move starts to play out, you can look for a standard ABC type of formation, getting even more aggressive as the B starts to complete. In this case, there would have been multiple points to get more aggressive, but none of those points would have led to a sharp move down to target, so this one would have required you staying committed to the reversal within the full timeframe. That can be hard, but THAT is why choose expirations that cover the entire timeframe AND give some wiggle room, if possible. Ultimately, any puts chosen for August either at the top, or any retracement area, would have provided our expected max gain.
But max gain is not ALWAYS the case. That's why my target zone is usually starting at the 76.4% retracement. That's the point I've noticed in many cases that it fails to continue beyond. So I always plan to take some profits there.
Ultimately, ED reversals are the most reliable trades you can find aside from the nested 1-2 (i) (ii) breakout into a wave 3. That's because an ending diagonal is a stunted end to a previous trend where the bulls increasingly lose volume as they push the price in overlapping fashion. It's a signal that steam is running out. And once they have nothing left to give, the trend reverts back to where it started from as the opposite sentiment takes over. So when I see a potential ED, I will ALWAYS play the reversal if there's a profitable path. If the reversal is to the upside, I'm buying shares with a stop AND looking for options. If it's to the downside, I will almost always buy puts provided the first move is worth the risk. These will win more than they lose and the winners should far outpace the losers. My stop on options is ALWAYS assessed on my entry sizing. That means that I figure out the most I'm willing to lose and only enter sizing that will not go beyond that amount.
I hope this post helped. I will continue to post the setups. I wanted everyone to understand what I'm doing and why. While I use EW to identify these, this is not something specific to just EW. Any technical analysis can spot when a trend is drying up. This analysis goes beyond EW as I don't really care about what waves it takes to get there. I just know that in most cases, it's going to try and it's going to be one of the most predictable trades I can make.
When the deepseek story broke I figured it was bull ****.
El_duderino said:
Selling premium on CSP's and CC's going good for you? I remember you'd mentioned it a few months ago and it was going well
Haven't been doing it as much as I should be, and a lot less than the previous couple of years. But I'm trying to raise more cash for big purchases later this year (house plus 2 vehicles won't be cheap!)
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
FriscoKid said:
When the deepseek story broke I figured it was bull ****. It was an easy call to expect all those companies to rebound after the dust settled. Pick the companies that were hit hardest on Monday and wait it out.
I'm still skeptical on both sides. NVDA has been making bank sending chips to Singapore knowing they aren't going to Singapore. Now Jensen is going to the White House to meet Trump
Always appreciate your work and commentary on here Prog! POWL is solid financially and has a great reputation in the verticals they play in. I don't lose sleep holding them long term.
Anyone with thoughts on ASO? Acadamy Sports and Outdoors.
Well off March 2024 high of 75.00. Currently languishing at around 52.00. I was holding long term, but thinking about getting out before too much longer. Current cost basis is 50.00.
TIA
Well off March 2024 high of 75.00. Currently languishing at around 52.00. I was holding long term, but thinking about getting out before too much longer. Current cost basis is 50.00.
TIA
I was there today. The fitting room doors lock behind you automatically. Took 10 mins to find an employee to help. The size baseball cleats Heine Jr needed weren't available in the shoe he liked. Bearish.frankm01 said:
Anyone with thoughts on ASO? Acadamy Sports and Outdoors.
Well off March 2024 high of 75.00. Currently languishing at around 52.00. I was holding long term, but thinking about getting out before too much longer. Current cost basis is 50.00.
TIA
Kidding aside, it's in no man's land needing to make a decision. Break the green, and it has room to run. Supply zones in green. Break the red and fall below the red demand zone, bad news bears. In my opinion, there's nothing indicating some sort of long-term breakout is around the corner. Money is likely more productive elsewhere. But that can change.
Haha . I need to make a run there in the am for baseball stuff too.
Looking into balance sheet, ASO is down on cash in Q3, up on receivables, and up big on inventory. I think the street will be looking for inventory turnover. Their short and long term debt grew in Q3 after coming down from Q3 22. If debt continues rising, could be another headwind. Their ROA, ROE, and ROIC has been falling for two years. Their operating margin is thin compared to years passed. They have a lot to prove on the upcoming earnings. I want it to hold $50. If so, it might be worth a long with a tight stop.
frankm01 said:
Anyone with thoughts on ASO? Acadamy Sports and Outdoors.
Well off March 2024 high of 75.00. Currently languishing at around 52.00. I was holding long term, but thinking about getting out before too much longer. Current cost basis is 50.00.
TIA
Nobody went broke taking profits
All the early counter research on deep seek is calling bull**** on their resourcing. They note some efficiency gains but not nearly enough to do what they are claiming.
tailgatetimer10 said:
All the early counter research on deep seek is calling bull**** on their resourcing. They note some efficiency gains but not nearly enough to do what they are claiming.
Was listening to part of the All In podcast today and Sacks was saying the $6MM price tag was likely just the final round of learning and didn't include any GPU spend, prior learning rounds, etc.
As that article posted earlier said, if you include their GPU spend alone they're at $1B+ and much more in line with what everyone else is spending
tailgatetimer10 said:
All the early counter research on deep seek is calling bull**** on their resourcing. They note some efficiency gains but not nearly enough to do what they are claiming.
I'm not debating that. What I'm saying is that NVDA knows their chips have been going to China. An investigation into those chips to Singapore could be very bad for them.
**** Luka
zgolfz85 said:
**** Luka
Mavs are the ones who reached out first allegedly
Featured Stories
See All
LIVE from Reed Arena: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 6 Tennessee
by Luke Evangelist
13:35
14h ago
4.0k
No. 7 A&M seeks to respond vs. No. 6 Tennessee on Saturday morning
by Olin Buchanan
10:35
17h ago
1.3k
LukeEvangelist
LIVE from Reed Arena: No. 7 Texas A&M vs No. 6 Tennessee
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
19
Captn_Ag05
LIVE from Reed Arena: No. 7 Texas A&M vs No. 6 Tennessee
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
12