wrong, as you surely know.

want to come visit the first site already under way?

this is great for the country. i realize what is great for the country isn't always what's optimal for your companies, but in your new role i hope you'll mostly put 🇺🇸 first.

— Sam Altman (@sama) January 22, 2025

Let me help yall..

On top, we have SPY 2023 low to present. In orange on the bottom, you have the Dec 2018 low to Feb 2020 pattern bar for bar as a reference. That pre-COVID orange pattern had a low hit on Aug 6, 2019 and top on Feb 20, 2020. Our last major low was Aug 5, and as you can see from my chart above, I'm projecting a top around Feb 20th.

I've always said the market is fractal in nature. This is an amazing representation of that. Does it have to play out like that? Nope. Could history not repeat and this skyrocket? Sure. But if we start to approach my target in mid February, I'd be VERY cautious about risky long exposure.

are you saying if a once in a century global health crisis event hadn't occurred at the last top something/anything else would've crashed the market at that point?

EliteZags said:

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are you saying if a once in a century global health crisis event hadn't occurred at the last top something/anything else would've crashed the market at that point?

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News and events are often just a catalyst. When the market reaches extremes in sentiment, it tends to extend until something kicks off the change of direction. Looking below, the market had reached a valuation level in late 2019 that had only been seen at major tops. It took months after that to drop, and everyone blamed COVID.



I can't say with certainty it would have dropped as low as it did had it been something other than COVID that dropped it, or if it wouldn't have found a way to extend diagonally another couple months, but yes, it would have found a reason to drop, as buying sentiment was weak up there. And fundamentally, you could argue that the only reason that bottom wasn't lower was because of the unprecedented cash injedction directly from the FED into consumer and business hands. Before COVID, liquidity injection happened through FED treasury purchasing and loaning said assets to the banks, increasing the money supply in a leveraged manner.

Lastly, in late 2019, the repo account was empty and FED liquidity had dropped to historically low levels. When there is no liquidity, that's when you see the tapping of the repo market, as its the last resort funding mechanism for short term cash needs. A massive spike is a sign that something is wrong in the system.



In early 2020 there was large spike in JPY that affected the carry trade on a global scale, and when that happens, the value of loans that have been invested in US assets rise sharply, requiring liquidity intervention or risk calamity and potential widescale default on massive leverage positions.

There was a lot going on in late 2019 and early 2020 under the hood. We didn't explode our debt because of a virus. We exploded our debt as a last ditch effort to kick the can on the global leverage system. COVID was a convenient excuse.

I bleed maroon said:

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H-A: I really like your first chart, but it is less meaningful with all those valuation measures "averaged together". Do you have them available separately? A simple average of trailing 12 and next 12 P/E is about the most I can digest at one time.

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I pulled a screenshot from twitter. At the playground with Heineken Light burning off some energy and will try and find a better one when I get home.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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I pulled a screenshot from twitter. At the playground with Heineken Light burning off some energy and will try and find a better one when I get home.

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PA24 said:

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If a recession is imminent, in the next few weeks, and it is a 2008 type hit on the market, what stocks does one buy?

What stocks made money in the fall of 2008?

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https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/best-recession-stocks/

Personally, I'd just be loading up on quality **** at deep discounts. Day trading in a recession…I've got no experience there

jamey said:

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You still like the bonds play?

I know you're using TLT but mine is just a broad market fund that tracks the Bloomberg US aggregate bond index, similar to AGG i think

I'm only abiut 16% in bonds. Thinking about taking some profit and moving little more over to bonds. I'm 55 and probably should start moving more that direction anyway long term and the yields are good

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I like TLT because it's less affected by short term actions of the FED. But I'm not in it because I think it's a long term answer. I've said before that I think it's a short to mid term opportunity but a long term risk. Origiinally it was on the 2007 thesis that rates would start falling fast when the FED decided to lower. But rates actually rocketed from that point forward. And I've been sitting on a negative position in TLT since. I doubled down in recent months to lower my basis. And rates could very well start making the move lower now. It was the bull steepening case that is precursor to recessions. I still think we see a bond market crash in the back half of this decade and want no part of it. There's just no way out of this fiscal dominance that doesn't end without investors demanding a premium to take on our debt. So TLT is nothing more than a vehicle for me to park my money that I normally don't trade with to earn a return until my target is hit. Bonus points if equities top and reverse in the process.

And regarding the doom and gloom. I don't like posting this stuff. I get nothing from sharing my ideas here other than trying to help people see what I see. I could be wrong about everything. But if I'm right, I'd rather be right having prepped as many people as possible.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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jamey said:

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You still like the bonds play?

I know you're using TLT but mine is just a broad market fund that tracks the Bloomberg US aggregate bond index, similar to AGG i think

I'm only abiut 16% in bonds. Thinking about taking some profit and moving little more over to bonds. I'm 55 and probably should start moving more that direction anyway long term and the yields are good

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I like TLT because it's less affected by short term actions of the FED. But I'm not in it because I think it's a long term answer. I've said before that I think it's a short to mid term opportunity but a long term risk. Origiinally it was on the 2007 thesis that rates would start falling fast when the FED decided to lower. But rates actually rocketed from that point forward. And I've been sitting on a negative position in TLT since. I doubled down in recent months to lower my basis. And rates could very well start making the move lower now. It was the bull steepening case that is precursor to recessions. I still think we see a bond market crash in the back half of this decade and want no part of it. There's just no way out of this fiscal dominance that doesn't end without investors demanding a premium to take on our debt. So TLT is nothing more than a vehicle for me to park my money that I normally don't trade with to earn a return until my target is hit. Bonus points if equities top and reverse in the process.

And regarding the doom and gloom. I don't like posting this stuff. I get nothing from sharing my ideas here other than trying to help people see what I see. I could be wrong about everything. But if I'm right, I'd rather be right having prepped as many people as possible.

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Pls keep it up. I learn more every day from your posts. Your thesis is unfortunately inevitable, just a matter of when. But it also means we go shopping when the top blows off and hoping we can time the bottom correctly. There's nothing more rewarding than making gains off the simple crash and ride back up, even if it's a slow burn.

So that's enough bearishness from me. Yall know my thoughts, you have my charts. I'll update the SPX, NVDA, and TLT charts if anything meaningful changes or starts to come together. Until then, focus is on the current opportunities. There are still plenty. Just manage your risk, don't spend anything you aren't willing to lose at a reasonable stop, and don't get too much FOMO. There is always another play. This is not the market to chase.

…with all that being said, who's up for some pancakes.

BucketofBalls99 said:

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POWL…….yikes

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First time?

WWR

It's an amazingly strong fundamental company, but buckle up