El_duderino said:

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And now NVDA hosting a quantum day. You can't make this up

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/gtc-2025-quantum-day/

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El_duderino said:

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And now NVDA hosting a quantum day. You can't make this up

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/gtc-2025-quantum-day/

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zgolfz85 said:

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I feel like the quantum quote was completely scripted and planned for. That was some insane market manipulation. Thankfully I didn't chicken out and held most of my stuff, but did sell off half my RGTI (only to see it quickly bounce back). I hate how baseless stock price movement is sometimes…more like all the time. A single quote from a single player sends quantum tanking for a week on one dude' opinion….an opinion that was his and his alone and not widely shared amongst his peers. So stupid.

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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zgolfz85 said:

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I feel like the quantum quote was completely scripted and planned for. That was some insane market manipulation. Thankfully I didn't chicken out and held most of my stuff, but did sell off half my RGTI (only to see it quickly bounce back). I hate how baseless stock price movement is sometimes…more like all the time. A single quote from a single player sends quantum tanking for a week on one dude' opinion….an opinion that was his and his alone and not widely shared amongst his peers. So stupid.

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Different take - quantum stocks had been pumping on nothing but baseless sentiment to obscene levels. At best, they needed a breather, and Jensen was merely the catalyst. If not him, something else would have happened and been blamed. At worst, what you saw today and maybe with a little continuation is nothing but a relief bounce before they fall farther.

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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TSM earnings in the morning. If you joined on the play for the potential upside, it pretty much needs to happen tomorrow. I will be prepared to exit the shares should it spike to $230 somehow.

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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TSM $206-$209 range and you buy it with stop at $202. Then you will sell between $225 and $230 before earnings. If it plays along leading up to it, the Friday or Monday before earnings you will buy Jan 31 or Feb 7 $200, $205, or $210 puts (wont know the best r/r until we get closer, if we get closer) looking for $195 by expiration. Hopefully we can make some money off this last push and then make a lot more money on the reversal while everyone else is looking in the wrong direction.

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$209 was hit.

Zoom out. This is the cycle it is working on completing.



Notice that it is in the 5th wave. Also notice that the 5th wave is not as impulsive, with each move showing heavy volatility and overlap with fourth wave crossing into the territory of the first. That means it's an ending diagonal. I've discussed these a bunch recently. It means bulls are in control but they are failing to move the stock upward with the same force and are unable to stretch it upward before getting slammed back. So zooming in on that..



Not only is the entire 5th wave an ending diagonal, but the (c) wave inside of the 5th wave inside of the larger 5th is setting up as an ending diagonal. I foresaw this yesterday and told you to watch for $205-$209 region and we are here now. The overlap confirms it.



Why does this have me so convicted on both timing and direction? Because when ending diagonals complete they almost always reverse 75%-100% of their structure within the same timeframe that it took them to complete or quicker. For the smaller one, the trendline would have the next move up to $230 complete before earnings. If so, the reversal would take through the first days of February at the very longest, targeting $190-$195.



The larger ED that started back on Aug 5th would take through June and would target $130-$155.



So that's why I say go long here. If it fails to move up one more time, you get stopped for a small loss. But if the thesis plays out, you will gain $20 per share over the next week. And as that final top approaches, we want to position for the end of month reversal by buying puts that would profit handsomely on a reversal to $195, knowing that it could easily stretch lower. But we will want to grab those puts as early as this Friday as earnings volatility will pick up and options will get expensive into next week.

Stay tuned. This still has to go UP one more time before the plan to profit from the downside can be realized.

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MavsAg said:

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Super interesting. Appreciate the insight.

My OFS business did $27M in revenue last year and will do $40M+ this year, but banks won't give us the time of day. The big guys certainly don't care about us and the one we are with now barely acknowledges us. Do you think we have a bad bank or is it because we are a young OFS company?

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Quote:

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The lesson learned is that diversity of your banks assets were more important than many had considered. EVERY bank I know is hiring business bankers that typically focus on businesses with revenues of $1 - $20MM. These clients typically have "sticky" deposits, come with a relationship with the owner, and have modest loan requests. Banks are also getting more active in searching for retail deposits for the same reason. It gives them stability to go to larger loans.

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cgh1999 said:

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MavsAg said:

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Super interesting. Appreciate the insight.

My OFS business did $27M in revenue last year and will do $40M+ this year, but banks won't give us the time of day. The big guys certainly don't care about us and the one we are with now barely acknowledges us. Do you think we have a bad bank or is it because we are a young OFS company?

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I only knew about 2-3 banks that "liked" OFS. They turned down every deal i referred to them over the last 5+ years. The only deals I know that got done were larger and either publicly traded or backed by significant private equity or family office sponsors.

Independents have had a challenge finding bank financing in recent years.

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tysker said:

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Quote:

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The lesson learned is that diversity of your banks assets were more important than many had considered. EVERY bank I know is hiring business bankers that typically focus on businesses with revenues of $1 - $20MM. These clients typically have "sticky" deposits, come with a relationship with the owner, and have modest loan requests. Banks are also getting more active in searching for retail deposits for the same reason. It gives them stability to go to larger loans.

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This reads like BofA's growth strategy from the early to mid-00s. Get as much AUM in-house as possible. That included the purchase of Merrill. Do you think we'll see similar acquisition strategies? Of course, the players will be different and much differently sized, but could mid-sized regional banks start to acquire brokers or regional asset managers,

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Chef Elko said:

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Not trying to hijack the thread too much but I started in commercial banking, went to an E&P, now possibly looking to jump back into commercial banking now that I have oil annd gas experience. Is oil and gas commercial banking dead and everything has moved to private equity / private credit deals?

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Chef Elko said:

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Thanks! Yeah we work with a few but man the pool of lenders shrunk by a good amount. Not fun seeing that with oil and gas lending as a career path.

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HoustonAg2014 said:

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While on the topic, my company does private loans on real estate (I deal with more of the commercial real estate side, land, retail, office, hospitality, ect). Always open to helping on projects or if someone is getting pushed out from a bank on their real estate and needs a home for it, we do a lot of that!

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frankm01 said:

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H-A, thoughts on UPS?

Earnings at end of the month and stock has been up the last few days. I know you don't always look at external forces, but fires in Cali must have some effect on earnings. Where's this going?

TIA

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