That VIX spike gave Tom Lee, Spilner, and all the dip buyers everything they needed to rip this thru new years. CR getting passed was cherry on top. SPY and Q's ATH by 1/3/25 for sure!!!

Never short a dull market. Next week will be dull.

I contribute to a Roth. Gotta use the backdoor method to get around income limits.

I realized this year that picking stocks to hold for a model portfolio on a yearly basis isn't really my thing. Some of the Texags 24 in 24 panned out. A lot didn't. But the main reason it's not my thing, is because the arbitrary timeline of beginning to end of calendar year isn't how I trade. Some of the stocks on the list didn't even trigger my entry price. Some triggered halfway through. Some completed what I was looking for quickly. Others won't complete for another year or two. Many failed completely. I didn't really have an overarching portfolio goal. It was all dependent on the individual stocks. And I didn't really didn't do anything to track performance. Sorry.

Despite that, I'm going to do it again. So let this post kick off the Texags 25 in 25 list. I'm going to do my best to find 25 stocks that are either at an entry point now, or will be within the first quarter of 2025. I will not advise anything that can't at least 1.5x from the expected entry. Some might take longer than the 2025 calendar year, but if I'm putting it on the list, it's because I expect it to end next year significantly higher than the entry I'm looking for.

I will be putting a google sheet together that I will link here as the list starts to come together. It will show entry area, expected target, timeframe, stop level, and ongoing performance. There will also be hyperlinks to my most recent chart for each symbol. The goal of the 25 in 25 portfolio will be to 1.5x or more the money invested if you buy every name that triggers entry. I can't guarantee I will fill out all 25 slots. If I don't find 25 I'm confident in, I'm not going to force it. This will also be completely buying and holding stocks/ETF's. No options. No FOREX. No futures. There might be a crypto play, but probably not.

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We're starting off with NKE.

NKE has a chance to complete a downward ending diagonal prior to March earnings. The reversal target goes through early 2027, with the midpoint around late 2025/early 2026, and I expect it to target the upper end of the $108-$130 range. Put an alert at $65 and get ready to buy between there and $60. This is a high probability 2x ED reversal play before we even identify an upward wave structure.



Of course, anything can happen. A sizeable break below $58.50 - the 38.2% retracement of Wave III - would be worrisome, so know what your risk tolerance is after entry and place your stop where you deem appropriate. Mine will be under $58.50, giving the hedgies a chance to do a fakeout without triggering my stop. But you do you.

There will probably be multiple ending diagonal reversal plays. I've mentioned these before, but it's important to know what they are and why I consider them high probability.

What is an ending diagonal? It's the final move of a trend. For a bullish trend, it's the move that makes up the 5th wave of some degree. Within a correction, it makes up the 3rd leg which is the C wave. What it signifies is that the previous trend is slowing and having a harder time moving with the same impulsive authority it previously did. ED's tend to be overlapping 5-wave structures that still continue the previous trend. For bullish ED's, this means overlapping higher highs and higher lows. Bearish is opposite. Once they exhaust themselves, the reversal will usually retrace the ED starting point within the same timeframe that it took the ED to complete. So an ED that takes 1 year has a 1 year window to completely reverse itself. Here's some examples.

You will see on the charts 3 purple lines. This will be the same color scheme I use for all ED plays. Those are the starting and ending point of the ED. The third purple line represents the 2x point of the first two lines which is the timeframe we expect reversal to complete. The yellow line is 1.5x (representing half the time), and the orange line is 1.618x (the golden ratio).

SOXS - ED took 6 days. Reversal took 2 days and retraced nearly the entire structure.


SI1! December - ED took 16 days. Reversal took 6 days and slammed right through, less than half the time it took the ED to complete.


SI1! November - ED took 6.5 days to complete. Reversal went just past 1.618 in time retracing 76.4% of the move.


XBI - This was at the turn of the year. And you could have potentially counted an ED two different ways shown in both blue and orange. But even if you took the smaller timeframe highlighted on my chart, it took 36 days to complete the ED. Reversal took nearly the full time, but target was hit and then some.



These can happen on any timeframe. The easiest to trade are ones that happen in a matter of a days, as you can be in and out within a week knowing your exact target AND a timeframe for target. But they can also happen over months or years.

So NKE can theoretically happen as quick or it wants, or take two full years. And it depends on exactly where and when it finds it's next bottom, though I expect that to happen prior to March earnings as my chart outlines.

So NKE is a buy before March earnings between $60-$65. If it doesn't quite hit $65 but starts to break some resistance, it might still be a buy. The minimum target is $108 and max target $130 sometime between the end of next year and early 2027. No matter the structure it takes to move up, if we get the entry and support holds, I can almost guarantee you will have more money at the end of 2025 than when you entered, and I fully expect an ultimate 2x gain. As it moves up, there will also be high probability areas where we can go net free, add more shares, sell calls, sell puts, buy calls, buy puts, etc. So this could be a long-term position from which you could leverage into even higher gains. I would recommend at least 100 shares, but you do you. I will probably buy 200 on intial entry, and will add more if we get a setup I like with more clearly defined higher stop.

OXY is going to be next on the 25 in 25 list.

This one has been a tough cookie going all the way back to late 2022. But it's now done enough to consider this long-term correction over. I'm honestly not positive on what's long-term, as I can see multiple possibilities. But what I do spot is the selloff since April has completed 5 waves down in an ending diagonal. Read the NKE post above for the in depth on ED's and what they signify. This one makes the list because the probability of reversal is high assuming support holds. Right now, that support is $45 area. But I'm going to place my stop lower in case it wants to squiggle down one more time.

The target for reversal is by late August 2025. And we have a high probability target area of $65-$71. That would give us 45-50% gain on shares bought at current prices. I bought my position in the $45's last week. And I will definitely add if we get back into the $50's and then come down and hold a higher low. Might even add calls then.

I do want to caveat, that I don't think all energy is due for robust gains. There are some names that I could definitely see moving significantly lower. So be targeted in your approach to energy. This one is one of my favorites BECAUSE of the high probability nature of ED reversals.



Texags 25 in 2025 list
1. NKE
2. OXY

Silver is going to be next on the list. Specifically, SLV which trades at a slight discount to spot. And if you want to lever up, you can do AGQ in an attempt to double the potential gains. You might even do both. Ya'll know I've been tracking it for a long time. My portfolio is HEAVY with silver and silver miners. I think we're close to a bottom and about to enter the phase where silver outperforms just about everything. The last move up a couple months ago broke above significant long-term resistance and I bulled up. They promptly slammed it back down and its been correcting for 2 months, wiping out TONS of bullish option calls. But I should have seen it coming, and I'm an idiot for ignoring the signs. Learn from your mistakes. The move from August to October was, you guessed it, an ending diagonal. The reversal window runs through Jan 8 with a lower target of $24.25, and the upper end of the target box around $25.50. This was a missed chance to make a killing in put options. On top of that, the recent "b" wave in early December completed with a short-term ending diagonal. I did put on protective puts for that one and made 2x on them with that reversal downward. But we're only looking forward now.

So I'm hunting a bottom between $24.25 and $25.50 between now and Jan 8. If you have no exposure yet, I recommend buying shares as you can exit them easier when needed. The stop will be under $23 and I might give it to $22.50. I personally don't think it gets below $24, but you never know. The lower end of the target box is $37 with the upper end being $41-$42 range. But, and this is a big but, metals tend to extend in their 5th waves. This is different than what you're used to with equities, which tend to extend in their 3rd wave (think NVDA last year, SMCI up into the ATH, POWL, etc). That's because a metals 5th wave usually coincides with the general market finally realizing the reality of the economic situation and piling into what they are told is protection. Shorts get blown out and a gamma squeeze takes firm hold. These extensions can go FAR past what you think is likely. So, while we have an upper end to our target box, I will likely only sell a portion there and will be watching critical support zones. The thing about metals extensions is, they don't last long, even if they are ferocious. Once metals top, they freaking top and reverse quite quickly. So while you might want to leave some exposure, you will need to be mindful to take profits along the way. Because this 5th wave that topping is most likely within a (C) wave of the larger degree off the 2020 low. And if that's the case, then it's an even larger "B" wave top in the second leg of a 3-wave move off the 2011 moon rocket, and the ensuing larger [C] wave would lead to under $10. Is there a chance this incoming top is part of a larger bullish structure? Sure. But I don't see anything pointing to a reliable path for that, and even if so, we will get a significant downward move after this top. So when I say take profits, I hope you will listen. Lastly, these kinds of moves in silver tend to line up with equities starting to reverse course and potentially even falling hard. Something to keep in mind.



Now, for those bolder, here's the AGQ chart. This is a 2x levered ETF tracking silver. When it's bullish, it makes serious money. But when it's bearish, it loses money twice as fast. Only use this one if you are willing to endure some potentially sizeable swings up and down. I will likely have a small portion of AGQ, and will go heavier in it when I feel like supports have been hit and big moves are coming.

AGQ should bottom somewhere between $28 and $31.50. And it's taking more of a diagonal shape pointing to upper target between $65 and $75. But I don't worry as much about specific targets in levered instruments as far as Elliott Wave goes, because they can tend to extend beyond reasonable measure due to the leverage. This could go as high as $90 for all I know. But even the lower end will be a 2x from our entry.



To recap:

SLV
Buy between $24.50 and $25 (and potentially now if you don't want to take a chance of missing it)
Stop under $23
Target $37-$41 and possibly moon

AGQ
Buy between $28 and $31.50
Stop = SLV under $23
Target $65 - $75 and possibly moon

Regarding options, I used the last "b" wave to exit anything of value for Dec and Jan. On Friday, I averaged down my Feb and March positions and initiated $28's on each. If we get into my target zone, I will average down everything I currently hold and likely buy Jan at the money, Feb at the money, and possibly even March at the money calls. But it likely won't immediately rocket upward. There will almost undoubtedly be a buildup phase likely through January expiration. So I might wait on bullish set ups to confirm to get aggressive.

Lastly, I keep track of the futures and spot charts as well, and you might see me post those in updates as they have far more data to serve as clues being open overnight. Make sure you check which chart I'm showing so you don't mess up support and resistance zones.

Texags 25 in 2025 list
1. NKE
2. OXY
3. SLV / AGQ

bmoochie said:

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Personally I think these long winded messages on stocks need a seperate thread. I think they are awesome and useful but it makes it hard to sift through when this should be a day to day trading thread. Just my 2 cents.

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Not much trading going on on Saturday. I appreciate the info.

FishrCoAg said:

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bmoochie said:

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Personally I think these long winded messages on stocks need a seperate thread. I think they are awesome and useful but it makes it hard to sift through when this should be a day to day trading thread. Just my 2 cents.

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Not much trading going on on Saturday. I appreciate the info.

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Me too. Gives me time to digest more in depth posts.

Thanks for putting this in one place. And for all the great advice.

bmoochie said:

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Fair enough. Was just an opinion and thought. Because I forget sometimes to read in depth as I'm doing stuff during the weekend. And then the week comes and I feel they get lost In the shuffle

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Us old guys use the weekend to catch up on stuff like this!

Yea please keep the posts up, love trade tips