Your last sentence nailed it. There is a good reason neither party has really gotten serious about seriously cutting government spending and reducing our debt/ deficit. Nobody will like the consequences.
Our economy is currently like holding a basketball down under the water. The deeper you take it, the harder it gets keeping it under and will eventually explode thru the surface when released. But you can't hold it under forever.

Mas89 said:

---

Your last sentence nailed it. There is a good reason neither party has really gotten serious about seriously cutting government spending and reducing our debt/ deficit. Nobody will like the consequences.
Our economy is currently like holding a basketball down under the water. The deeper you take it, the harder it gets keeping it under and will eventually explode thru the surface when released. But you can't hold it under forever.

---

Or you go deep enough and it pops.

EnronAg said:

---

question for the BTC gurus - never had BTC outright, as I've only owned the ETF's and BTC related companies like COIN, MARA, etc.

Question - let's just say I was rich enough to own a couple BTC outright, are there options that you can play (i.e. selling covered calls, buying protective puts) to protect yourself? have no desire to use options outside of hedging my underlying exposure.

(not buying at these levels, but should there be a sizeable correction and I would see an opportunity to buy BTC and use options to hedge volatility and exposure)

---

I don't own any outright either. I'd look at IBIT (a bitcoin ETF), just like SLV is to physical silver. They trade identically, and there really isn't a good reason to worry about owning the ETF verse regular bitcoin. I will be buying this bitcoin dip. IBIT is less volatile and more predictable than the miners and MSTR. MSTR can be deceptive and hard to play. IBIT, much less so. Options in IBIT too are very liquid, I would not hesitate to play those. I may buy a few calls on this dip.

If bitcoin can hold 98k, it stays in a channel upward and could take out 120k in January. In the next 4 years, if Trump and the Fed start buying a ton of bitcoin (like he has said they will), you will see it take out 400k+ (fwiw, I think it could 3x in the next 18 months). It will remove our reliance on the corrupt ever inflating USD and get us away from the central banking cabal.

just my 2 cents of course, do your own DD.

Anyone like NVAX on bird flu hysteria? Got a gap above and below. Or maybe a strangle?

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

FMC - Topped in 2022 and setting up the next huge move down. Bear flagging

---

Should have stuck with my original thesis on this one. I allowed outside thinking to get me to find a bullish case where I originally didn't see one. I even entered a position and ended up getting stopped for minimal loss. But now, it's confirmed what I originally thought.

CAVA below $115 and the most bullish scenario starts to invalidate. That's the scenario that had this in the heart of a 3rd wave pointing much higher. If it breaks, then it means CAVA has likely topped, and this is just the beginning of the selling.

Sucks when you're right but spook yourself.

Bought TSLZ this morning. Set a stop just under the low. Got stopped. Lost $500. Would have been up $1.8k now had I let it bleed a little more and sold at the high. Coulda shoulda woulda. But with FOMC on deck and the run TSLA has been on, I was scared to death of further upside extensions that would crush me being in an inverse ETF.



Just proof that nothing is easy, even when you feel the conviction.

Tom mothereffing Lee

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/teamsters-union-launches-historic-nationwide-strike-against-amazon-paying-price

CNBC said yesterday's VIX spike was the 2nd largest single day spike ever...what on earth?!?! is something else brewing???

10 year Treasury yields broke out big time yesterday.

Chef Elko said:

---

Are we back back or like texas back?

---

Too good coach

CLSK hit the top of my support box and also the 61.8% retrace of the [a] wave. I'm not loving the reaction though and would prefer one more squiggle down into the high $10's with a sharp V shaped bounce out of it. But certainly enough in place for a low to be in.

Need some analysis opinions on SOLV.

6 month chart shows head and shoulders. Buy puts?

Still don't think we know what's next until Monday at the earliest. VIX doesn't easily reset in a day. I favor this market resuming back upward through January before we really get heavy selling, but I need to see if the reaction off of yesterday's red is merely a correction or the start of a new impulse.

Talon2DSO said:

---

Def not back lol. MU getting it's ass kicked

---

This!

QMCO is wild...glad I sold half of my shares yesterday

I sold MU on a whim yesterday and glad I did. I really intended to hold a bit longer, but needed to free up some cash for all the stuff that went on sale late yesterday

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Still don't think we know what's next until Monday at the earliest. VIX doesn't easily reset in a day. I favor this market resuming back upward through January before we really get heavy selling, but I need to see if the reaction off of yesterday's red is merely a correction or the start of a new impulse.

---

I wouldn't be shocked to see more stock-specific volatility as we head into year-end, with profit-taking and rebalancing, especially with the chance of fewer or smaller rate cuts in 2025. Funds that have already hit their benchmarks for the year will probably hold off until the new administration lays out its "first 100 days" plans and there are clearer trade opportunities. That said, "holding off" could look different depending on their risk profile; it might mean rolling into 10-yrs or adding more hedges to the Mag 7 exposure.

There will likely be new opportunities in January that aren't on anyone's radar yet. Even so, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a slow grind higher through year-end, with certain stocks showing more intraday vol, followed by a decent pullback by mid-Feb.

Hopefully MU can rebound sooner rather than later.

Multiple places have lowered price target but are keeping a buy rating

Saw some Tom Lee mentions here. Hes still bullish, but when he goes bearish I feel it's more meaningful than others. His re-tweet might provide some insight. He has called short term pullbacks in past, which seperates him from other bulls in a bull market.

We are in this speculative blow off now in a number of names that have no earnings or revenues. It does not mean the bull market is over. What it situationally means is that several names are presenting climatic, blow off, short covering rallies. When these reverse down, it…

— Roy Mattox (@RoyLMattox) December 17, 2024

WULF Jan 3 $7 puts are up 125%. If it can get to $6.40 I'll probably sell the majority but leave some runners.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

SLV - Can still come down to $25, but starting to get significant positive divergence on daily MACD with price well above the threshold for a higher low.

I'm going to start adding to my March calls and will be initiating April and June as well over the next weeks. Once we have a confirmed bottom I am likely putting half of my cash (sitting at about 30% in my accounts) in SLV shares.

Metals have taken an absolute beating with this post election rotation. But we are potentially nearing the time where everything rotates back and metals outperform.

---

Does SLV issue a K-1 or 1099? I can't find any answer online. Have been avoiding MLP's as well for the headache of a K-1.

Same for MARA you think? Except 20 instead of 10?

Very old discussion but might be relevant. Not sure myself.

How do I report income loss from SLV etf that issues K-1 form? | Elite Trader

TLT $87 - $88 could be a major confluence. I'd like to see it not much below there. If bond yields are going to come down, that's about the area they should start to do so.

Any thoughts on FUBO?

Just got stopped out.

ReturnOfTheAg said:

---

Any thoughts on FUBO?

Just got stopped out.

---

No. Not pretty.