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25,605,363 Views | 234769 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Heineken-Ashi
Heineken-Ashi
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FED liquidity continues to trickle down as it has all year. It's been down since late 2021 and is threatening making a new low.



This year is the most disconnected the market has been from liquidity since 2019 leading into the 2020 drop. A serious catalyst could cause a very similar reaction in the market, as there just isn't liqudiity available to backstop anything and just about all participants are fully loaded to the long side.
Heineken-Ashi
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And for the FED to inject new liquidity, that means guaranteeing moonshot inflation. But this time, they already have an unhealthy balance sheet. For them to inject stimulus, it would mean bank failures and the economy on the brink of collapse. And the only liquidity available to take would be, for the 3rd time, bank deposits sitting on balance sheets that they would use as their 10% reserve requirement (or maybe 0% like after COVID.. For a long time, the reserve requirement was non-existent, allowing them to lend unlimited money back to banks and devaluing the dollar immensely - which leads to massive inflation) to lend 10x the liquidity of those deposits back to the banks. And if they don't do that, its because they realize that they can't without dooming the dollar. The only solution then is a very deep recession / depression and likely bail-ins.

PeekingDuck
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AG
I feel like this might be more of a Monday morning type of post.
Heineken-Ashi
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PeekingDuck said:

I feel like this might be more of a Monday morning type of post.
Cmon, you know me. I try to find and participate in the rewards but will always warn about the risks. Not better time than a Friday news drop before cracking open the first beer of the weekend.
ProgN
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OTR, what news came out on SMCI?
Number Monkey
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AG
SMCI got an extension from Nasdaq to file delayed annual and quarterly reports to Feb 25.
Bocephus
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AG
MRB10 said:

$850k per coin is roughly golds current market cap. I might think about selling a portion if it doubles that.


$100 million per coin or bust!!
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
gougler08
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AG
Number Monkey said:

SMCI got an extension from Nasdaq to file delayed annual and quarterly reports to Feb 25.


To the moon!
EliteZags
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AG
wanting back into 50s
Brewmaster
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AG
EliteZags said:

wanting back into 50s
it'll be 100+ in 2025. That big sell off was a dirty move.
Heineken-Ashi
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Brewmaster said:

EliteZags said:

wanting back into 50s
it'll be 100+ in 2025. That big sell off was a dirty move.
You can see the exact volume that went in that was immediately eviscerated. A lot of money had to flow to take down the $100k sell wall. Then they stepped on it and stopped that money out before continuing on like it never happened. Brutal.

And people think BTC is any different than equities. It's not.

Edit: Thought yall were talking BTC. It appears yall are discussing SMCI.

Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Post if you sold below $30.

You laugh to keep from crying.
Heineken-Ashi
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Post if you sold below $30.

You laugh to keep from crying.
Hey, at least it bought you a pizza.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Last of my shares got called away today at 40 (+2.5 premium). No ragrets. Cash pile getting pretty healthy
Brewmaster
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still applies, great stuff chief.

I bought a starter position of LCID today, really beat down name, starting to reverse (some notable volume today).

BES - we will get another entry on SMCI. Need a market dump day or 2. It's a volatile beast though.

another prediction, TSLA 400+ Monday morning. It could keep running though if it makes new ATH's.
DC901
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We need SMCI to rocket so the short m…… f… get crushed.
bmoochie
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Heineken-Ashi
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Brewmaster said:

still applies, great stuff chief.

I bought a starter position of LCID today, really beat down name, starting to reverse (some notable volume today).

BES - we will get another entry on SMCI. Need a market dump day or 2. It's a volatile beast though.

another prediction, TSLA 400+ Monday morning. It could keep running though if it makes new ATH's.
TSLA - yes. And I'll likely rotate from TSLL to TSLZ once it happens and confirms reversal looking for $340-$350 range. If that support holds, then it's off to $500+. Breaking $285 is what would make me revise this count. If I hadn't sold a call I'd sell out at $414 and look to buy back around $350, potentially with an even larger position. But it is what is. Hence why I'm playing the levered products for these moves until I either lose my shares or the call expires.



BucketofBalls99
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Brewmaster said:

still applies, great stuff chief.

I bought a starter position of LCID today, really beat down name, starting to reverse (some notable volume today).

BES - we will get another entry on SMCI. Need a market dump day or 2. It's a volatile beast though.

another prediction, TSLA 400+ Monday morning. It could keep running though if it makes new ATH's.


Brew - do you think there will be another decent entry point this year? Or not until sometime next year?
ProgN
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BucketofBalls99 said:

Brewmaster said:

still applies, great stuff chief.

I bought a starter position of LCID today, really beat down name, starting to reverse (some notable volume today).

BES - we will get another entry on SMCI. Need a market dump day or 2. It's a volatile beast though.

another prediction, TSLA 400+ Monday morning. It could keep running though if it makes new ATH's.


Brew - do you think there will be another decent entry point this year? Or not until sometime next year?



I still hold all my shares, which is considerable and haven't sold any, but I will not and have not added any either. I'm not posting false bravado with diamond hands. I almost liquidated it all at $22 and I'd have booked a large 6 figure loss. I'm breaking one of my own rules and holding because of hope. If SMCI is proven to have committed fraud, then I will lose my ass. I'm optimistic and hopeful everything comes out in my favor but I will not be buying anymore until all is revealed.
Quacked
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I took my losses on sMCI at 27$! Rolled it into TSLA and XRP
flashplayer
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I pretty successfully signaled the bottom when I got out of it at $18. I was concerned that it might head close to zero, and as usual, I was incorrect.
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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AG
Quacked said:

I took my losses on sMCI at 27$! Rolled it into TSLA and XRP


XRP master race standup!
CuriousAg
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Thinking about dumping my PLTR shares for SMCI on Monday… yay or nay?!
El_duderino
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It's been stated before, but there's still risks on the table that haven't been cleared up.
Heineken-Ashi
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Friend of mine on discord reminded me of BABA. Came down exactly as expected and into strong fib support at the 61.8% level. Wouldn't be surprised to see $76.50 region, but I think Feb earnings catalyzes this to $130.
Breaking $75 with follow through under $70 would worry me about this cahrt being completely wrong and new lows incoming, so definitely mind your stop.

Brewmaster
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BucketofBalls99 said:

Brewmaster said:

still applies, great stuff chief.

I bought a starter position of LCID today, really beat down name, starting to reverse (some notable volume today).

BES - we will get another entry on SMCI. Need a market dump day or 2. It's a volatile beast though.

another prediction, TSLA 400+ Monday morning. It could keep running though if it makes new ATH's.


Brew - do you think there will be another decent entry point this year? Or not until sometime next year?
If I play it, it will just be a short swing or scalp. It's too volatile for me right now. It just closed a gap last week and it needs to cool off. It could pull back to high 30's and still be in this channel. or it could run til Christmas!
sorry, long story short, yes there will be some good entries in January and February (overall market weakness).


CheladaAg
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CuriousAg said:

Thinking about dumping my PLTR shares for SMCI on Monday… yay or nay?!


There may be a run up between now and the Feb extension deadline but I'd expect a decent sell off as we get closer to the deadline.
El_duderino
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TSLA expected range for the week is between $361-$416. Support at $392 and $378. I'd look for a potential pullback to $392 before it makes a push up to ATH. Could be a great r/r entry point
Heineken-Ashi
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El_duderino said:

TSLA expected range for the week is between $361-$416. Support at $392 and $378. I'd look for a potential pullback to $392 before it makes a push up to ATH. Could be a great r/r entry point
$375 is support for a pullback. If that happens, I expect the move to $414 to be swift afterward. Not going to rule out it going straight to $414.
El_duderino
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Yeah I had extended hours on. $375 area could be a good risk reward for a quicker trade if it hold that in a pullback
Heineken-Ashi
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Silver - not touching shares. There's still a bigger bull ahead. But man did da boys fake me the hell out (and almost every experienced trader I know). Not only did it break out of a multi-month range, but it broke over a multi year trendline and got some continuation. The bull was raging. Then they slammed it back down and have decimated millions in options positions. Why did this happen? How did i miss it?

Well go back to my last post on this thread regarding BTC. Bitcoin had the $100k wall. There was an insane amount of orders sitting open to sell there. The amount off volume to break through that wall was going to need to be ferocious. After first test and pullback, it broke through. How? The sellers moved out of the way. Buyers piled in, and many more jumped on once it broke through thinking it was confirmation of moon shot incoming. But the sell wall wasn't taken down. It merely moved. They re-engaged it at a higher level and slammed price back under $100k and even broke first support which had millions of dollars in stops. They suckered buyers in and then crushed them. Guess who was buying that low? The ones who had just sold to slam the buyers down. It was absolutely nasty, but so well done.

Well silver over the last month or so appears to be similar. They trapped us. And I got caught with a ton of open November and December options, and even some new Dec and Jan calls I engaged. Absolutely destroyed. Luckily, I caught the low and bought a significant amount of December SLV $27.5's. The goal was to sell around $29, with the proceeds making up for a lot of my potential losses on calls that might not be worth much at Dec or Jan or expiration.

Here's where I see silver today. And this is futures, so remember that SLV has a discount in price to spot and futures. This CAN end up bullish, but it has a lot to prove, and as far as December and January calls go, I'm not taking my chances, especially since I have formed a starter position on March calls and have a significant amount of SLV shares. This pattern has the classic look of a corrective "B" wave. B's are the 2nd leg of a larger 3-wave correction that retrace up from the first move down. Within the B, it's forming a pretty clear overlapping 5-wave ending diagonal. And ED's almost always retrace their point of origin at the very least which for spot and futures is around $30. I'm expecting silver to top out soon around $32.50 - $33 spot and futures, roughly $29 or so in SLV. I will be selling all December calls no matter the value, and anything for January worth at least 1/3 of my cost. The January calls that are higher and likely won't be worth much can be my exposure for something else happening or a sudden bullish spike over the next month of trading days. I might even sell some March calls if I can get at least 50% return, because I expect to be able to buy them back in a month or so.

For this to turn bullish, I need $32.50 futures without seeing under $31.65 again. Even still, this would likely retrace to $31.75 and then hit $33, come back to $31.50, and then have a consolidation / build up period before ready to take off. That will take some time.

Of course, anything can happen. As y'all know, I use EW and Fibonacci pinball as a blueprint. I've done this a long time and the blueprints are based on what is most probable given the structure showing. There are plenty of times where something randomly explodes up or down and destroys the blueprint. So I advise you to determine the risk management that suits you best. I believe SLV will be at or above $40 by mid next year if not sooner. And once that move engages, it will go fast. Silver tends to play "catch up" to gold in metals bulls and the explosive silver move usually precedes a MAJOR top by weeks or months.

Heineken-Ashi
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One other thing on Silver. I don't it's a coincidence that where I have this bearish period ending is in January. I'm seeing a lot of charts, some of which are very big companies, that look to be tracking toward major highs in January, potentially even blowoff top type of highs. Between profit taking for 2024 and some major catalysts, a rotation out of equities and maybe even BTC and back into metals is exactly what could kick this metals bull back into gear.
Quacked
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I rode those 12/6 contracts. Made the smart move and sold 10 of my 15 before close Thursday. Rode the profits out risking Friday morning, but it was a risky lotto play to begin with!
Heineken-Ashi
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Quacked said:

I rode those 12/6 contracts. Made the smart move and sold 10 of my 15 before close Thursday. Rode the profits out risking Friday morning, but it was a risky lotto play to begin with!
I lost track of time. Went to sell them out as they were up 45% in the span of a couple hours. Hit the sell order right as the bell rang. No luck.
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