My FIL has been a huge AXSM bull for a couple years now. He's finally starting to have his day. I have a meaningful position too. Numerous catalysts in the next quarter.

ALL CLEAR

Gonna be real interesting to see what SOXL does from here with that gap filled.

GRAB - Still want minimum target $5.50. But this is starting look like a complete move off the August low and RSI is overbought on all timeframes. Move stop up to $4.50 with target at $5.50 and forget about it.

In on TSLZ - Stop $3.75. Target $5.50-$6. This is my hedge against my remaining TSLA shares and attempting to make profit off the retrace.

ALB - Still has a chance at $117. But below $97 and that's likely off the table and we can call a local top as in. But that top, whether in or incoming at $117, is a completed leading diagonal first wave in a larger structure. So if you didn't get in yet, the next retrace and consolidation, which could take anywhere from weeks to months, will likely be your last chance. Once it takes out $117, it's likely going to be in the heart of an explosive move and $135 could come quick followed by $150.

Bought NEM Dec $45 calls for 50 cents. Looking for $3.00-$4.50 on them but will sell half at 2x.

SOFI - If this gets to the upper $15's this week, consider at least going net free or selling all but some runners. That was our original target. If it holds a higher low after that, you can get back in. But I can't guarantee much higher than that. Hope it happens, but would prefer you get your money back.

ENPH - Might be looking for a low and then a bounce to $75-$80 over the coming 1-2 months, but I'll be surprised if this one sees above $90 again before falling to $20. VERY bearish chart.

FMC - Topped in 2022 and setting up the next huge move down. Bear flagging

$FMC 401k levels for entries long term.

— OA1 Disciplined Trading Service www.OA1Trading.com (@oldarmy1) November 12, 2024

Thoughts?

aggies4life said:

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$FMC 401k levels for entries long term.

— OA1 Disciplined Trading Service www.OA1Trading.com (@oldarmy1) November 12, 2024

Thoughts?

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I would consider asking him. My thoughts are pretty clear. Would need a failed bear flag for me to look upward.

FMC - If you were going to play it, I think you are playing for $80-$90 best case. But that's a significant gain from oversold where it's currently holding support, and a phenomenal R/R with very low risk. So I can see why OA is advising it. I might actually jump in too for the short term with stop at $53 range.

Thanks for bringing the counter view.

Something like this is about what I see it doing.

UUUU - Breakout over $7.25 will lead directly to $8.20-$9 range.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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In on TSLZ - Stop $3.75. Target $5.50-$6. This is my hedge against my remaining TSLA shares and attempting to make profit off the retrace.

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this is brilliant. I hadn't thought of playing the inverse. I have played TSLT before.

What does 5.50 to 6$ correlate to? TSLA 300?

I bought TSLA shares at 214 in mid October, still holding, consolidate here and may just make it a forever hold. Would love to say it was a baller trade and dip buy, but mostly it was just buying weakness before earnings.

There's a 2X BRK.B ETF coming.

I find this relevant to my interests...

Brewmaster said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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In on TSLZ - Stop $3.75. Target $5.50-$6. This is my hedge against my remaining TSLA shares and attempting to make profit off the retrace.

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this is brilliant. I hadn't thought of playing the inverse. I have played TSLT before.

What does 5.50 to 6$ correlate to? TSLA 300?

I bought TSLA shares at 214 in mid October, still holding, consolidate here and may just make it a forever hold. Would love to say it was a baller trade and dip buy, but mostly it was just buying weakness before earnings.

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Not sure. It's an inverse ETF that will decay, so there's likely not a great correlation via price. Im just playing for what looks like a 50% bounce, as that's what I'm expecting for TSLA - a 50% retrace

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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There's a 2X BRK.B ETF coming.

I find this relevant to my interests...

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Woah that's awesome. Thats my biggest holding.

Took a Jan 2025 AMD $150c on the pullback into this buy zone. First level to break is $151 and then would target $174

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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There's a 2X BRK.B ETF coming.

I find this relevant to my interests...

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Would that essentially retire you from trading? Dump 100% into that and forget about it?

What I'll probably do is take a chunk of what I currently use in my swing trading and dump it in there as a forever hold.

Beyond that, in the event of any huge dips/corrections in the future, I may rotate some of my BRK.B into that.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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What I'll probably do is take a chunk of what I currently use in my swing trading and dump it in there as a forever hold.

Beyond that, in the event of any huge dips/corrections in the future, I may rotate some of my BRK.B into that.

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I've never owned BRKB. I can't explain why not.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Brian Earl Spilner said:

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What I'll probably do is take a chunk of what I currently use in my swing trading and dump it in there as a forever hold.

Beyond that, in the event of any huge dips/corrections in the future, I may rotate some of my BRK.B into that.

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How do you still not understand decay? Even if BRKB goes up forever, there will be a disconnect between the underlying and the ETF. The ETF has to use leverage to pull of its stated goal, which means the downswings will be punishing.

Below is TSLA vs TSLR 2x ETF



While it's great when the stock is going up, could you stomach at 75% drawdown over the course of a year, not being able to touch that money and praying it reverses back up? Notice how it's just now back to where the drawdown began, while TSLA is significantly above that level? That's decay.

You use these ETFs in the short to mid term only. You trade them. You don't invest in them. No matter how much you think stocks only go up.

BOIL didn't fail for you because it was natural gas related. BOIL failed for you because its a leveraged ETF and you caught with your pants down in a bear market.

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BES - take this as a sign. H-A and I rarely agree completely on market advice, BUT, I totally agree with him on this.

Do not buy leveraged ETFs as buy-and-hold investments. You may want to tattoo that on your right hand (or whichever one you use to click to place trades). Short-term trading ONLY, if you must. Not joking around, here.

Are you saying that the UVXY I bought in 2011 isn't coming back anytime soon?

also in general don't leveraged ETFs dip slightly when the stock stays flat


kinda like the -110 on sports bets or odds reduction from greens on roulette wheel, but not really

You're comparing TSLA, a notoriously volatile stock, to BRK.B, one of the safest and most stable stocks on the market, with a beta below 1.

So it's a false equivalency.

Yes, decay exists. But it would affect something like TSLA exponentially more than a BRK.B.

Oh, and BOIL did fail me because of the underlying. 100%.

I have never lost with any other leveraged ETF.

EliteZags said:

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also in general don't leveraged ETFs dip slightly when the stock stays flat


kinda like the -110 on sports bets or odds reduction from greens on roulette wheel, but not really

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Yes, the longer a stock stays flat, the more decay will eat into your gains. But on a long enough timeline, and provided your underlying is something like the S&P 500 or Berkshire, you will tend more and more towards that 2x goal. It'll never quite be that obviously, but it will be nearly impossible to fall below 1x unless you're in an extended bear market and for some reason decide to sell at the bottom.

If you keep accumulating on downturns, you're almost guaranteed to get back above 1x.

The actual best comparison here is SSO. (2x SPX)

5 year returns:
SPX: 92%
SSO: 175%

And that's with a higher beta than BRK.B. (Ie. More decay.)

Please nobody take this as advice though. I'm not suggesting people follow me on this. I have a very long timetable, and have learned discipline and patience in my experience with leveraged trading. Unless you're comfortable seeing your holding go deep in the red at times, it's not for you, and especially not as a long-term hold in 99% of cases.

sold 3% of my MSTR today and i want to puke. but cost basis on those shares was ~$30 i think so basically free money. still not happy about it though.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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There's a 2X BRK.B ETF coming.

I find this relevant to my interests...

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Ticker?