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24,919,433 Views | 233707 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Heineken-Ashi
Heineken-Ashi
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Heineken-Ashi said:

DJT - Great R/R area if you want to enter. Will post chart a little later.
Rough outline. Remember, just a blueprint. As it takes shape I can alter it more precisely. Can use either recent low at the 50% for stop or lower 61.8% retracement.

FrioAg 00
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AG
I'm doing some significant profit taking today.

I'm as happy about Tuesday as anyone, but this short term exuberance has hit just a little past rational for my perspective.

A large part of my portfolio I won't market time with, but for the portion I play with - it's a nice sell day.


Which of course means we are due for a huge bull run.
Heineken-Ashi
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SMCI - For those willing to risk it..

Heineken-Ashi
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SOFI - Continuing higher on slower trend, which usually indicates it's going to start swinging back and forth in this period of 4's and 5's until it tops out. No guaranteed 5th wave will happen, so take profits / move stop up based on what you are willing to risk.

dreyOO
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Any thoughts on ENPH? Discount buy and hold position here or waste of time?
aggies4life
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AG
What are your thoughts on Victoria secret stock? Its been moving a ton!
Talon2DSO
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AG
aggies4life said:

What are your thoughts on Victoria secret stock? Its been moving a ton!


Trump women are way hotter and their husbands are manly men so it makes sense that the stock goes up. I bought my wife new lingerie on Wednesday and chances are high so did many others did too. As liberal women put up a four year moratorium on sex, it's our time to populate the country with strong warrior kids.

4B?? More like 32DD, amirite
Heineken-Ashi
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aggies4life said:

What are your thoughts on Victoria secret stock? Its been moving a ton!
When it broke the $17 level back in July it went in the trash heap. Your stop can be $40 and I think you play for $45-$50, maybe going net free there and moving stop up to $34 on the rest.

This is a bullish blueprint, but I'd pay more attention to the support and resistance pivot zones.

RightWingConspirator
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AG
Anyone else holding AXON? I purchased some shares years ago off a Motley Fool recommendation. I'm sitting on a triple now. Anyone else holding it?
Moy
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RightWingConspirator said:

Anyone else holding AXON? I purchased some shares years ago off a Motley Fool recommendation. I'm sitting on a triple now. Anyone else holding it?


Heck yeah! I'm in back from the Taser days. Best products on the market. …..and the money is in the data storage that just grows infinitely.
Heineken-Ashi
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Chart of the day - We've talked about divergences, usually regarding RSI or MACD and price. But this chart shows the true divergence. It's between FED liquidity and SPX. Notice what happens when SPX gets significantly over the level of liquidity in the system (when liquidity is decreasing). It doesn't crash immediately. But only two results are possible.

1. Liquidity in injected and SPX falls as liquidity rises until they cross and then SPX resumes upward (this comes with a massive devaluation of currency and re-inflation. So if you see that happen, you better buy that dip with everything you've got because the price of everything would become 2x or more within a couple years).

2. Liquidity continues to drain from these elevated levels and SPX eventually falls until they can cross again at much much lower levels (this would be a long bear market with no FED liquidity injection. Dollar would rise and everything valued in dollars would fall, some more than others based on the value of their productivity and relative demand within society).

In the first case, we would see SPX 5000 area again and that would be the bottom. In the second case, you're going back to asset values and liquidity levels pre-Covid. A longer bear market would take them to pre-2008.

Option 2 hasn't been experienced in this country since the 1970's and 1980's, and that was on a MUCH smaller scale to the massive level of liquidity in the system now compared to then.

Number Monkey
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AG
Question for the experienced options traders....With CLSK halted, what happens to those who had options expiring today?
Heineken-Ashi
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Number Monkey said:

Question for the experienced options traders....With CLSK halted, what happens to those who had options expiring today?
My guess is you got hosed. But not sure.
South Platte
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Number Monkey said:

Question for the experienced options traders....With CLSK halted, what happens to those who had options expiring today?
At this point I'd call your broker to get some answers.
Chase McGuire
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Is it possible to see this chart for what you're describing in Option 2? Does the chart allow you to go back to the 70s and 80s?
Heineken-Ashi
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Chase McGuire said:

Is it possible to see this chart for what you're describing in Option 2? Does the chart allow you to go back to the 70s and 80s?
Not really. You have to remember that the FED expanded liquidity more in 2008 than all other previous years combined. Not only that, but the repo market really wasn't a thing until after 2008. Then they expanded liquidity by 2x more than all other years (including 2008) in 2020. Liquidity in its current state can really only be tracked back to post-2008. Hence why this chart looks like this in linear mode.



If we wanted to get back to the economy, liquidity, asset values, and health of the country even pre-2008, you're talking about sucking 70% of the liquidity out of the system. That's what is truly needed to get this country back on track. Yes, it's painful, because all of that money is in assets and probably less than 10% of it is actual money and not derivatives.
Logos Stick
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At what point do we have a correction? This market is insane.
Heineken-Ashi
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Logos Stick said:

At what point do we have a correction? This market is insane.
When sentiment is exhausted to the upside. And sentiment can stay irrational for a long time.

One of my leading indicators is silver. Election night saw a huge drawdown in commodities and a significant rotation into growth. That's the kind of thing needed to create an environment for sentiment to eventually top. But the metals bull is not over. You will know it's over when the Gold/Silver ratio drops. And it will happen quickly with a spike in silver, which is the last place money will flow before metals top out.

Silver is held largely around the world with the biggest holders being foreign central banks, governments, hedge funds, etc. The drawdown in silver was not from those groups selling. Hence why it hasn't broken any meaningful support. I would wager the next spike in silver will be extremely robust as the groups that already hold the most buy up even more at the same time that your everday money managers and market participants finally jump on board and widen the exposure.
EnronAg
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AG
when the deep state takes out Trump
Heineken-Ashi
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SOFI hit short term target. Expect pullback to $11.50 to $12 range. Extensions to upside certainly possible. Below $11.50, and $10.50 would be next support.
Chef Elko
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AG
EnronAg said:

when the deep state takes out Trump

On a serious note, I really hope Elon has upped his security detail. He's going to be a major target
Chase McGuire
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Thanks for the explanation.
EliteZags
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AG
around April I well timed transferring a mid 5 figure HSA acct from Optum to Fidelity which stupidly takes a week but happened to miss a ~5% pullback, which I bought half back into VOO right away, but then wanted to spice up the remainder to ramp up more on tax free gains (since my Roth is already pretty aggressive) and yolo'd the other half into PLTR/TSLA/SMH/HOOD/SOFI/AVGO
totally irresponsible but has close to doubled the acct over 6 months
RightWingConspirator
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AG
Thoughts on PLTR at these levels? I want to open a position for a long hold but concerned it's moved too much recently. Should it matter that much for a multi year hold?
BlueTaze
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Has anyone been hearing the term "animal spirits" a lot this week? They have apparently been released.

Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Between October 2023 and today, my NW is up 77%. (Includes both income and gains.)

What a rally.

And the amount of money I've made in that time, is the amount it took the first 9 years of my career to accumulate. (Due to low initial salaries, paying student debt aggressively, no retirement accounts, and living in HCOL areas like NY.)

Now it took just over 1 year.

Puts things in perspective for me.
khkman22
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AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:

Between October 2023 and today, my NW is up 77%. (Includes both income and gains.)

What a rally.

And the amount of money I've made in that time, is the amount it took the first 9 years of my career to accumulate. (Due to low initial salaries, paying student debt aggressively, no retirement accounts, and living in HCOL areas like NY.)

Now it took just over 1 year.

Puts things in perspective for me.
Congrats on finally getting a job.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
More like busting my ass to pay off my debt as quickly as possible, and still managing to put a little money aside each month even with a relatively low salary while living in one of the highest COL areas in the country, but thank you.

Majority of this jump is not income, but profits. Years of discipline and getting my financial education, finally paying off. Would not have been possible without those 9 years.
South Platte
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

More like busting my ass to pay off my debt as quickly as possible, and still managing to put a little money aside each month even with a relatively low salary while living in one of the highest COL areas in the country, but thank you.

Majority of this jump is not income, but profits. Years of discipline and getting my financial education, finally paying off. Would not have been possible without those 9 years.
Just wait until you get married and spend every evening and every weekend at your kid's sporting events. It's a bear to try to keep up with everything!!
M4 Benelli
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khkman22 said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

Between October 2023 and today, my NW is up 77%. (Includes both income and gains.)

What a rally.

And the amount of money I've made in that time, is the amount it took the first 9 years of my career to accumulate. (Due to low initial salaries, paying student debt aggressively, no retirement accounts, and living in HCOL areas like NY.)

Now it took just over 1 year.

Puts things in perspective for me.
Congrats on finally getting a job.


That Fast Food worker to $15 an hr Bill really paid off!


@BES, keep it up my brutha! Glad to see you doing well!
SW AG80
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AG
Our net worth has really gone up since our 2 kids got out of college. Some good investments plus less $$flowing out.

Sometimes it takes a while to get where we want to be. Right now we are in Vegas with Aggie friends going to see the Eagles at The Sphere tonight. Perfect time. Aggies are idle. Trump won.

Life is good.
BlueTaze
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RightWingConspirator said:

Thoughts on PLTR at these levels? I want to open a position for a long hold but concerned it's moved too much recently. Should it matter that much for a multi year hold?


I'd bet it probably flags at this level then grinds higher as long as the macro market bull rally continues/bases.

I'm struggling to think what could possibly trigger a correction near term, largest green week of 2024 and biggest week ever for many here. Maybe some profit taking with SPX $6K getting tagged so quick.

I suppose $6K would need to get lost before it would be worthwile to fade any rallies in PLTR or elsewhere.

E
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AG
So what you're saying is our SLV calls still look good?
Heineken-Ashi
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E said:

So what you're saying is our SLV calls still look good?
Nov's are fully at risk. Dec's are iffy depending on if it can find a support. If the bottom is in, SLV can get to $33-$34 by December expiration. Any higher would be an extension that I'm not willing to plan my base case on it. Should this correction continue longer, it could extend to late Nov / early Dec and dip into the $27's. There's even an outside chance that low might not come until late December.

I was hoping for an election season spike. We didn't get it to the extent I thought was possible. But it's still there and will likely happen, especially since metals traditionally have their biggest extensions late in there move and that the average investor and hedge fund still has little to no exposure.
FishrCoAg
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AG
SW AG80 said:

Our net worth has really gone up since our 2 kids got out of college. Some good investments plus less $$flowing out.

Sometimes it takes a while to get where we want to be. Right now we are in Vegas with Aggie friends going to see the Eagles at The Sphere tonight. Perfect time. Aggies are idle. Trump won.

Life is good.


Nice!
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