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25,018,876 Views | 233796 Replies | Last: 24 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
spud1910
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AG
Me too. And happy to get my money back.
Heineken-Ashi
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Heineken-Ashi said:

QCOM - Fractal pattern analysis

Since 2002, when this thing makes a marginal higher high (this is log mode, so it might actually be a significant new high in linear mode), but then sells off and breaks through supports, and is then followed with a small choppy consolidation / build up, you can go back to the last high before the one it dropped from to find a pretty reliable target level for the very next move.



Not shown is a trendline analysis I did. I drew a line from the bottom of each move that led to the top it sold off from, and then a parallel line from the bottom it formed after, and every single time it hit the target above or at the trendline. So zoomed in, here's our price and timing for target.



It's pointing to the week of Dec 2nd. Funny enough, my personal system has almost the exact same price and timing for upside target.

Doesn't look like there's any expirations between Dec 2 and 20th. Here's the chain.



I'm not sure about paying $11 for a $175 call that wouldn't even pay 2:1 on expiration date. Of course, we expect it to happen before expiration so there should be some premium built in based on theta (time) and volatility. Still, my strategy for options is to plan the move as if it happens on expiration. And I just don't like the R/R on these when I can buy $100 shares with a stop and potentially make $2k.

There is a weekly available Nov 29th that shaves $1-$2 off the same strike, and has $180's in the low $7's, with the $193 target giving us just under a 2:1 return.



So you can either buy shares using $166 as a stop targeting $193, or "as of right now" you can buy $180 Nov 29 calls for mid $7's with contract price target of $13-$14.

Caveat - after hours news released that ARM is cancelling QCOM's chip design license, a 60-day notice. They have been in a legal battle because ARM sued QCOM in 2022 saying QCOM failed to negotiate a new license after it acquired a new company, Nuvia, founded by Apple chip engineers. December is when they meet in court.

Yall know I don't much care for news and that I don't apply cause and effect to it. But it's worth noting for anyone interested in this play. If you do decide to do options, my advice would be to size accordingly to manage risk. That's hard to do on expensive options like this. I don't have stops when I buy options. The premium I pay is my risk management.. I'm willing to lose it all and I choose the amount of contracts based on my risk tolerance. Thus, I cannot advise on options stop levels, so if that's something you need, you are on your own.

I will be watching QCOM closely tomorrow and the rest of the week to see how it responds to the news. Hopefully the option pricing comes down a bit and it holds support above that $166 stop, giving us much better parameters.
BOOM! Just need target to hold until tomorrow.
infinity ag
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I made a sheet ton of money today.

My best day ever
spud1910
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

ProgN said:

I'm buying $ARM here. They report AH today. I'm snake bit so, I wouldn't rec anyone following me.
I bought calls yesterday. They were up nearly 30% at mid day I I just went ahead and sold them. Might regret it. But I'll take it.
Yeah, I followed you and am up 41% now.
vbl
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ARM beats but is down AH?
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Figured I'd bounce back to a new personal high sooner than later.

Did not expect that to happen in one day, and then some.
infinity ag
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I do ETFs and have never done options.

Can someone help me? Tell me a simple basic call I can buy. Low risk, I am not looking to make money on this one I just want to try out the process.
CC09LawAg
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My advice - if you like your money, don't ever give trading options another thought.

If you're hellbent on it, I would suggest giving yourself a goal of reading X amount time of books/articles/etc. a week about it for a few months. If you're dedicated enough to do that, then maybe start paper trading some options.

It is absolutely brutal. Do not underestimate the mental and emotional aspect of it.

Edit: I do not mean this to come off as some "holier than thou" post. I legitimately mean it. I heard advice like this and neglected it because I thought they were FOS and I'm a smart, capable, successful person.

You will take an L and it will tailspin and things can compound really quickly. If you decide you want to do it, set up a separate account and give yourself a weekly or monthly allowance and tell yourself when it's $0 it's $0 until the next deposit.
giddings_ag_06
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AG
Dutch Bros up bigly AH! Between that and Mara, I've had one of my best days ever.
EliteZags
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AG
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Quote:

I made a sheet ton of money today.


Heineken-Ashi
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This is a trading thread. Options are a part of trading. If you want to just buy ETF's, we have a long term trading thread that likely better suits you.

Options are risky. I recommend doing a search on here. I've had some pretty in depth write ups in the past.

Before you jump into options, you need to learn about options. Simply buying a call that somebody recommends will teach you nothing. All it will do is make you want to do it more. And without understanding how options work, you will be like the above and lose money very quickly.

Take the time to learn and then paper trade.
Chef Elko
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AG
$BROS
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
infinity ag said:

I do ETFs and have never done options.

Can someone help me? Tell me a simple basic call I can buy. Low risk, I am not looking to make money on this one I just want to try out the process.

Smci aug15 2025 41 call for $3
Or nov8 2024 23 call for $1.15
I bleed maroon
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AG
infinity ag said:

I do ETFs and have never done options.

Can someone help me? Tell me a simple basic call I can buy. Low risk, I am not looking to make money on this one I just want to try out the process.
Two words for you:

Paper trading.

Try this for many months until you get a feel for how they behave (along with reading educational info on how they actually work). Then, decide if they're really right for you.
infinity ag
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Thanks all, read all your posts about my question.

Will look into it.

Paper Trading is new to me, I have an account with Schwab, will look into it.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
My buddy made $90k today in gains. No trading, just investing.
Brewmaster
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AG
infinity ag said:

I do ETFs and have never done options.

Can someone help me? Tell me a simple basic call I can buy. Low risk, I am not looking to make money on this one I just want to try out the process.
"low risk"? stick to shares amigo! nothing wrong with that approach. options and low risk is not the same thing.
You can learn to scalp stocks or even leveraged ETF's intraday - I would learn that skill before options.
Brewmaster
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AG
Space exploration stonks:

The direction we are headed, got me thinking about this. So I did some digging and came up with these:

RKLB
Rocket Lab - they build rockets and have a healthy backlog of work!

LUNR
they landed a privately built craft on the moon earlier this year

RDW
space infrastructure

MDA
robotics and satellite infrastructure

I've only looked at RKLB so far, and it's already blasted off a bit, needs to cool off. I will start to look at the others tomorrow though and see if any warrant an entry soon.


ASTS
EliteZags
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AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:

My buddy made $90k today in gains. No trading, just investing.
I came pretty close to that across all accts between today and yesterday
EliteZags
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AG
well maybe more with PLTR blasting through 57 overnight
ToddyHill
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AG
Quote:

I made a sheet ton of money today.

My best day ever
I think there are many people that said the same thing today.
ToddyHill
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AG
Quote:

My buddy made $90k today in gains. No trading, just investing.
EliteZags
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AG
Brewmaster said:

infinity ag said:

I do ETFs and have never done options.

Can someone help me? Tell me a simple basic call I can buy. Low risk, I am not looking to make money on this one I just want to try out the process.
"low risk"? stick to shares amigo! nothing wrong with that approach. options and low risk is not the same thing.
You can learn to scalp stocks or even leveraged ETF's intraday - I would learn that skill before options.

something like this may fall into that category https://www.amazon.com/Earn-Income-Your-Index-Investments/dp/0578339633 (covered calls strategy)
ToddyHill
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Quote:

ARM beats but is down AH?
They beat their earnings but kept their full year forecast. Analysts wanted an increase. As such, stock is down big after hours and in early morning trading.

I own a good sized chunk of ARM (I don't trade). I think it's a great long term hold.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
SOXL $35 target hit.

Next targets 37, 38, 40.
Heineken-Ashi
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FED day. Market expects 25 bps cut. The 10-year is at 4.41%, around 80bps up since the last cut less than two months ago. 2-year is at 4.21, also up nearly 80bps.

Volatility was absolutely crushed on election night and yesterday. The potential volatility event that was setting up was decimated. But support has not broken and volatility is still elevated compared to August. Vol getting back below July/August would be ideal for the bull.

The market has resoundingly told the FED that it does not want treasuries at lower rates. Will that last?

I fully expect treasury rates to come back down a little. I'm closely watching what the action in them and bond prices looks like following today.
RightWingConspirator
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AG
Market is giving you a good opportunity to get into MELI. It's a fantastic company that has averaged me over 30% CAGR for the last several years. They had an earnings miss and is down over $300. Problem does not seem structural but more temporary.
Gaeilge
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My concern with MELI is how much of their business is done in Brazil. WIth Lula in power in Brazil, I think that is going to continue to hurt their near term goals
RightWingConspirator
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AG
Their increase in costs stem from expanding business sectors versus a location thing. You could very well be right about Brazil, but I see it as a worthwhile risk particularly at these prices. It's a long term hold for me and I intend to hold for at least the next few years.
gougler08
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AG
Any thoughts on ZIM? Feels like it can't get through this point over past 2 years so maybe sell here and look to re-enter if it comes back to $18?
Gaeilge
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Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
How we doing?

OldArmyCT
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AG
I own APP at $84. Feeling pretty OK right about now.
El Chupacabra
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

How we doing?


AMD, AAPL, AMAT, TSLA are making me happy today. Stocks like WOLF are reminding me why I'm done buying stocks that I don't fully understand what they do or what they create.
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