Bought some more SLV below 30
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Last: 19 hrs ago by jamey
Howdy Dammit said:
ROKU getting killed. Was excited when I saw earnings
I'm very confused at a 22% drop on what seemed like very positive earnings.
I am back in on Uber with about half of my previous holding that I sold at $74.
Bad guidance and they're following Netflix by no longer reporting subscriber numbers beginning Q1 2025
Dropped right into critical support. Must hold. If so, just a part of the process If not, GTFOHoustonAg2014 said:Howdy Dammit said:
ROKU getting killed. Was excited when I saw earnings
I'm very confused at a 22% drop on what seemed like very positive earnings.
Bottom not confirmed until it starts breaking resistance going back up. That comes in at $37 on the low end. $51 would be next, but as shown, I think that's about where it tops. Remember, this is just an outline. SMCI now has 5-waves down. Since it came off a major high and is a reversal move, that means it's either the start of new trend down, or the first leg of a deeper correction which is what I'm showing. Once bottom is in here, the move back up could land anywhere between $37 and $85. And it will almost undoubtedly be a complex structure that whipsaws back and forth, never providing anything reliable or trending outside of small micro moves. This is why I say to throw it away and avoid it. If it wants to go bullish, we will know because it would make 5-waves back up and then hold a higher low with a retracement of that move. At that point we would have a potential trend formed and a clear stop zone, providing better parameters for a trade. Trading it here is hoping to get lucky and likely sweating the whole time.
If you're holding a bag, you can either stay in and sweat it out, hoping to get lucky that it hits a point where you get your money back. You could lower your basis down here, though that's risky if it wants to continue lower. You could sell here, knowing that it's unlikely to do anything spectacular for the next year, reallocating that money to something with a better setup (or potentially just waiting for a better SMCI setup), and saving yourself the heartache. No decision is the right one. Only the right one for YOU, your risk management, and your psychological well being.
If you're holding a bag, you can either stay in and sweat it out, hoping to get lucky that it hits a point where you get your money back. You could lower your basis down here, though that's risky if it wants to continue lower. You could sell here, knowing that it's unlikely to do anything spectacular for the next year, reallocating that money to something with a better setup (or potentially just waiting for a better SMCI setup), and saving yourself the heartache. No decision is the right one. Only the right one for YOU, your risk management, and your psychological well being.
Thanks for sharing. Man I thought we were headed for $90. I was very convinced baring bad earnings. I know earnings is not to be played with but man $90 looked good to me.
I havent gotten into their financials, I was scared of the company from the 2020 incident. What is the driver for the boom of the stock price? It still surprises me, I do not see a ton of their product in the market vs competitors.TTUArmy said:I know good people are invested in this company, but damn if SMCI isn't looking like a clown show meme stock at this point.tailgatetimer10 said:
Guys, scmi is blacklisted by many of the cloud companies. That alone tells me to run far far away.
You and everyone else. Sentiment was rather extreme to the bullish side despite having a choppy pattern, lower high, and being under resistance. Usually when sentiment lines up to one side, that's when a top happens. Then the slightest misstep can cause that same herd to rush to exit. Like a crowded theater on fire through a crawlspace. Leveraged longs have to rush to close and you get a squeeze to the downside.HoustonAg2014 said:
Thanks for sharing. Man I thought we were headed for $90. I was very convinced baring bad earnings. I know earnings is not to be played with but man $90 looked good to me.
Thanks for that analysis Heine.
I'm wrestling with the decision to cut losses on SMCI (would be the second time I've had to), but I hate to do it 2 days before earnings.
For now, I'm gonna continue to grit my teeth and take it since I think basically the worst-case scenario is what's being priced in at the moment.
If they report anything less than total catastrophe, I'm thinking (or hoping) that we see a relief bounce to at least the 34-38 range. (38 is where it topped out yesterday.)
Even if it flashes up before dumping again (like what happened last earnings), at least it'll hit my limit orders.
I'm wrestling with the decision to cut losses on SMCI (would be the second time I've had to), but I hate to do it 2 days before earnings.
For now, I'm gonna continue to grit my teeth and take it since I think basically the worst-case scenario is what's being priced in at the moment.
If they report anything less than total catastrophe, I'm thinking (or hoping) that we see a relief bounce to at least the 34-38 range. (38 is where it topped out yesterday.)
Even if it flashes up before dumping again (like what happened last earnings), at least it'll hit my limit orders.
Not sure what the premiums look like right now or what your cost basis is, but could you sell covered calls in the meantime if you are willing to stick it out?
Obviously you'll be tied up in the shares and can't sell in the event this selloff continues. Just throwing it out there as a potential option to consider.
Obviously you'll be tied up in the shares and can't sell in the event this selloff continues. Just throwing it out there as a potential option to consider.
My other plan is if SMCI bounces back another couple bucks today while SOXL stays below 30, I'll roll it over into SOXL. Pretty much equally volatile but a hell of a lot less long-term risk.
Overall I'm currently in for 1000 shares @ $37.21/share.
My Schwab accounts are currently not enabled for options (tried to sell covered calls for TNA last month). I could probably call them to get that enabled.
My Schwab accounts are currently not enabled for options (tried to sell covered calls for TNA last month). I could probably call them to get that enabled.
The problem with SMCI is that standard technical analysis told you to sell once it broke the yellow box. But your instinct was to buy the dip. So you watched as it held the lower yellow line. That made you feel like the bottom was in. It started building up off of that and you got bullish. But look how choppy that move up off the yellow line was. There's simply nothing there indicating a bullish path is likely. Could it have been "possible", sure. But a trending move makes higher highs and higher lows. One that don't simply should not be trusted unless the overlapping pattern has 3 clear highs. In that case, it could be a leading diagonal, but you would still place your stop immediately below. This never made the 3rd high in the choppy pattern. Once it broke that yellow line, it was over.
Now that we are down here, could it bounce soon? Absolutely. But like I said, it's most likely going to be a corrective bounce. And those can be very choppy, sometimes retracing moves up almost 100% with a move back down. They go through a myriad of roller coaster moves as the bulls and bear duke it out. Nobody wins for very long. And while it's doing that, other instruments might be performing well and trending while you're beating your head against the wall with a stock facing headwinds.
Think of CLOV. Those of us (me included) that became bag holders because of our own stupidity, despite OA's play performing EXACTLY like he said, got stuck in YEEEAAARRRSSS of nothingness. Only recently has hope started to resurrect, but it could still be years more before anything comes of it. Had we taken the win when it was available, not only would we have not lose money and tied it up, but could have stacked wins by investing in something else. Even had we sold on the first sign of support breaking, we'd be infinitely better off than we are now. Take the clues the market gives you and align your money with the trend.
Now that we are down here, could it bounce soon? Absolutely. But like I said, it's most likely going to be a corrective bounce. And those can be very choppy, sometimes retracing moves up almost 100% with a move back down. They go through a myriad of roller coaster moves as the bulls and bear duke it out. Nobody wins for very long. And while it's doing that, other instruments might be performing well and trending while you're beating your head against the wall with a stock facing headwinds.
Think of CLOV. Those of us (me included) that became bag holders because of our own stupidity, despite OA's play performing EXACTLY like he said, got stuck in YEEEAAARRRSSS of nothingness. Only recently has hope started to resurrect, but it could still be years more before anything comes of it. Had we taken the win when it was available, not only would we have not lose money and tied it up, but could have stacked wins by investing in something else. Even had we sold on the first sign of support breaking, we'd be infinitely better off than we are now. Take the clues the market gives you and align your money with the trend.
I doubt that this is going to be a traditional earnings call, their lawyers are not going to let them provide much meaningful financial data without an accounting firm reviewing/blessing the numbers.
If volatility breaks through resistance, it could get ugly out there. This chart is the most important right now.
Just one note on SMCI.
This company has a real risk to end up at 0 at this point. I have made the mistake twice before chasing things all the way down to 0, and won't do it again.
I had my stops hit at the open yesterday and I am 100% out now and have no plans to get back in. I made enough selling on the way up on this last run to offset my losses on this last drop. I probably am net down 1% of all the money I have had in it.
My suspicion/guess is their products were getting funneled to Russia through Asian shell companies.
This company has a real risk to end up at 0 at this point. I have made the mistake twice before chasing things all the way down to 0, and won't do it again.
I had my stops hit at the open yesterday and I am 100% out now and have no plans to get back in. I made enough selling on the way up on this last run to offset my losses on this last drop. I probably am net down 1% of all the money I have had in it.
My suspicion/guess is their products were getting funneled to Russia through Asian shell companies.
Agreed, I just don't think the timing of the E&Y news bomb and their earnings date gives them enough time to prepare/defend to control the fires. It wouldn't surprise me they would push back their earnings so they have more preparation but that would cause another stairstep down stock price. They are in a rock and hard place for sure.
Why did oil pop so much in the last hour?
ETA:
Found it
ETA:
Found it
🔴 IRAN PREPARING MAJOR RETALIATORY STRIKE FROM IRAQ WITHIN DAYS - AXIOS.
— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) October 31, 2024
Gonna fire missiles into the sand and ocean then call it quits lol
God help them if they hit anything. Soft targets are fair game for the Israelis now that all of the Iranian defenses are down.TheVarian said:
Gonna fire missiles into the sand and ocean then call it quits lol
Come on Apple, be clutch right now.
AMZN and AAPL, both have more volume and OI to the call side through November. Dealers are likely already hedged. If either or both drop on earnings, watch out. Most everyone would be aligned in the wrong direction and the exodus could be swift. If they go up, it could be the push this market needs to start moving back higher to new highs.
I am not playing them. Volatility up here means high prices and high risk. Waiting for clarity.
I am not playing them. Volatility up here means high prices and high risk. Waiting for clarity.
AMZN running
WWR sitting mighty fine at 62 cents.
Amazon Q3 2024 Earnings $AMZN
— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) October 31, 2024
EPS $1.43, est. $1.16
Net Sales $158.9b, est. $157.29b
Expected AMZN to be good. Question mark is aapl. If AMZN can break $200, its going to go on a tear
And INTC of all stocks up 11% so far with their earnings
I think 'up' is a relative considering they're down like 35% since mid-JulyEl_duderino said:
And INTC of all stocks up 11% so far with their earnings
Yeah good point
Apple Q4 2024 Earnings $AAPL
— FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) October 31, 2024
Rev. $94.93b, est. $94.36b
EPS 97c vs. $1.46 y/y
Quote:
Apple Q4 2024 Earnings $AAPL
Rev. $94.93b, est. $94.36b
EPS 97c vs. $1.46 y/y
Adj EPS $1.64
Products rev. $69.96b, est. $69.15b
Ipad revenue $6.95b, est. $7.07b
Total oper expenses $14.29b, est. $14.35b
Greater China rev. $15.03b, est. $15.8b
Mac revenue $7.74b, est. $7.74b
Iphone revenue $46.22b, est. $45.04b
Service rev. $24.97, est. $25.27b
Wearables, home & accessories $9.048, est. $9.17b
Declared a cash div of $0.25/shr.
plowe32 said:ProgN said:Ok, let me start by saying I'm sorry I brought this to the board and it hurts me considerably. I did not see anything in my analysis that what's going on now was even a possibility, apparently WS firms didn't either. That said, I haven't sold a share, but I will not be adding any to my positions either. I've experienced enough pain thus far that I'm going to wait out until all the facts come to light. No lie, this morning's events are very disconcerting, but I'd drink myself to death if I compounded a wrong decision with another by selling now, should the facts not be as bad as it sounds.tlh3842 said:
Would like ProgN analysis of the SMCI news
My advice at the moment is to avoid it because it's going to get absolutely pounded by the shorts, lawsuits, PR, etc. My positions will essentially be dead money until they get their **** straight. Don't try to call a bottom, because it usually will go lower. Throw out all technicals like oversold, support, RSI, etc. because this stock will not trade off technicals, WS won't touch it until the facts come out and the clouds disappear.
Again, I am truly sorry for what's happening to a lot of people that put trust in me. I love this place and I will do better going forward.
Prog
Prog -
You could never have foreseen this, so I don't think you owe an apology. You do your best and bring your analysis all the time which has created lots of profits for many - me included. You do it for the club and not for monetary gain here. Thank you.
Plus, the story of SMCI isn't over. While it's probably not a buy as you stated right now, we don't know what is happening yet.
SMCI has always been a super volatile *****. Like that super hot but really crazy girlfriend, it could be one hell of a night or you could also end up in jail.
This tank job really reminds me of OSTK from a few years back. It then did something stupid like $3 to $100 (as a new CEO and some internal changes supposedly worked that magic). Not trading advice, but I think when it does find bottom, it's a $100 in 2025. I had 50 shares left, not sure if I'll hold, but will see how it looks tomorrow.
they still have a deal with TSLA right? That's a big positive.
I'm honestly shocked iPhone beat revenue.
I always said I'd never sell AAPL, but I'd been getting antsy with it in the past couple months, feeling like it might start plateauing in the next few years similar to what AMZN did.
Finally decided to let go of all my shares after the earnings dip.
Also cut losses on all the SMCI I had in the same account (250 shares). The gain and loss canceled each other out almost exactly.
Finally decided to let go of all my shares after the earnings dip.
Also cut losses on all the SMCI I had in the same account (250 shares). The gain and loss canceled each other out almost exactly.
Stopped out of FUBO
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