Yeah, that's a good plan. I have buy orders now on the $35C so hopefully those fill, get ITM and I run a spread strategy to realize some gains.
Stock Markets
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Last: 18 min ago by El_duderino
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/22/legendary-investor-paul-tudor-jones-i-am-clearly-not-going-to-own-any-fixed-income.htmlEl_duderino said:
I believe this is what's being referenced. Just a small clip from the interview
ETA: PT 2
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/10/22/paul-tudor-jones-we-are-going-to-be-broke-really-quickly-unless-we-get-serious-about-our-spending.html
Here's another link
This interview is a must see
Thanks for posting this. I'm running between 2 hospitals today seeing after FIL and BIL. So no tv for me.
And trying to calm my wife in between.
A win Saturday will soothe the soul.
And trying to calm my wife in between.
A win Saturday will soothe the soul.
Has the underlying hit my target? How much time is left?Chef Elko said:
What do you generally do when your options get ITM? I had a handful of Dec $30C I sold today that were ITM. Do you sell when they are ITM and roll to OTM contracts? That was my plan
For expiring this week in SLV, I'm looking for $32 and will sell most.
For expiring in Nov, Dec, or Jan, I'm holding. Silver JUST broke out above its long term resistance and we have the mother of all catlysts in a couple weeks. Again, I am risk free and sitting on booked profits already. My ultimate target was $40 to sell all options. Until we get through election, I am letting Novembers ride.
If your goal was to simply get ITM to sell, then it sounds like you achieved your goal. If you didn't have a goal, then you need to make sure you formulate a plan before you enter things. Otherwise, you become like the dog who finally catches a car.. you have no idea what to do with it /joker
That's why I constantly preach risk management. And even then, there are times where being overexposed will decimate you.. as a crowded theater tries to exit through a crawlspace.SW AG80 said:
Paul Jones is someone I have great respect for as an investor. He essentially explains that considering debt and deficits, we are on an unsustainable path.
He explains in plain speak how all of this impacts bond markets. I cannot do justice to his explanation so - once again, I urge you to watch carefully when you get a chance.
It is a good use of time.
THIS IS FROM A GOOD AGGIE FRIEND WHO WAS PRESIDENT OF A STOCK CLEARING HOUSE COMPANY FOR SEVERAL YEARS. AND ACCORDING TO PAUL JONES, WHEN THE MARKET TURNS IT WILL HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY.
Prayers lifted for you and your family.SW AG80 said:
Thanks for posting this. I'm running between 2 hospitals today seeing after FIL and BIL. So no tv for me.
And trying to calm my wife in between.
A win Saturday will soothe the soul.
Prayers for your family!
Middle class is going to be wrecked if we "inflate away our debts"
Thanks!
Is it too late to get into SLV?
atmag95 said:
Is it too late to get into SLV?
No, but it's at the point where gentlemen's entries might not happen. I'd stick to ATM or $1-$2 OTM 2-3 month out expirations and look to get risk free as quick as possible and let the rest ride. Can't recommend buying this very instant, but can't say for certain you will get much of a retrace. Best I can hope for is to draw a trendline from 2020 top to this years May top and use a retrace from current spot to that line as an entry point.
If we retest the $29 level I'm putting some serious money to work in SLV
SPY and Q's just been chopping and consolidating the past few days waiting for some big move...which direction you think this thing is going?? and does it happen BEFORE the election?? (sitting on hands here as the bear thesis has me spooked right now)
Fundamentals aside, I almost expect that if the polls start to shift to Trump, the markets will dip so that the media can run with a "markets crash on fear of Trump dictatorship" or some nonsense.
Not helpful to the discussion but just something I could plausibly see as one last ditch effort to frighten the masses back into compliance. They're running out of ammo.
Not helpful to the discussion but just something I could plausibly see as one last ditch effort to frighten the masses back into compliance. They're running out of ammo.
Speaking of His Orangeness, are you all following DJT? Up 150% over last month.CC09LawAg said:
Fundamentals aside, I almost expect that if the polls start to shift to Trump, the markets will dip so that the media can run with a "markets crash on fear of Trump dictatorship" or some nonsense.
Not helpful to the discussion but just something I could plausibly see as one last ditch effort to frighten the masses back into compliance. They're running out of ammo.
What are your thoughts on the other metal ETF's?Heineken-Ashi said:atmag95 said:
Is it too late to get into SLV?
No, but it's at the point where gentlemen's entries might not happen. I'd stick to ATM or $1-$2 OTM 2-3 month out expirations and look to get risk free as quick as possible and let the rest ride. Can't recommend buying this very instant, but can't say for certain you will get much of a retrace. Best I can hope for is to draw a trendline from 2020 top to this years May top and use a retrace from current spot to that line as an entry point.
One could argue that the runup is because Trump is doing well?CC09LawAg said:
Fundamentals aside, I almost expect that if the polls start to shift to Trump, the markets will dip so that the media can run with a "markets crash on fear of Trump dictatorship" or some nonsense.
Not helpful to the discussion but just something I could plausibly see as one last ditch effort to frighten the masses back into compliance. They're running out of ammo.
GLD broke out earlier this year and gold has been in the overlapping pattern typical of the back half of a major run. SLV had a long way to catch up and serious outperformance was expected.South Platte said:What are your thoughts on the other metal ETF's?Heineken-Ashi said:atmag95 said:
Is it too late to get into SLV?
No, but it's at the point where gentlemen's entries might not happen. I'd stick to ATM or $1-$2 OTM 2-3 month out expirations and look to get risk free as quick as possible and let the rest ride. Can't recommend buying this very instant, but can't say for certain you will get much of a retrace. Best I can hope for is to draw a trendline from 2020 top to this years May top and use a retrace from current spot to that line as an entry point.
I have COPX but it has some work to do.
I have PLTM and it also has a lot of work to do.
Uranium has been hot and I haven;t studied the charts enough to have a great feel on what's next. It seems to always look like it needs a significant retrace that doesn't come.
WWR is set up nicely to get to 90..
cents. Maybe in a year.
Maybe - but we've been on a rocket for months, so at this point I am kind of in the "stocks only go up" mindset because no catalyst has seemed to stop this thing. So I think it's hard to say anything the past month or so (when his campaign seemed to really start crushing it) is making it run.
I've kept up with it only as kind of a sympathy play with my GME holdings - Trump seemed to not look favorably on the stops when it ran before so I'm curious on how he handles that if he gets into office. I'm sure it's been heavily shorted too, so if he really goes in with the YOLO/guns blazing mindset, it could get interesting.
One big thank you to HA for the SLV play, this been a fun week.
Happygilmore20 said:
One big thank you to HA for the SLV play, this been a fun week.
SOXL rocket
Agreed! Net free on buys from 1 week ago already. I will be adding more calls on any retraceHappygilmore20 said:
One big thank you to HA for the SLV play, this been a fun week.
fauxstradamus said:Agreed! Net free on buys from 1 week ago already. I will be adding more calls on any retraceHappygilmore20 said:
One big thank you to HA for the SLV play, this been a fun week.
Net free is the place to be!
Question for the board regarding net free:
If I am selling puts on a stock, and make a profit of $50, and then use that profit to buy $50 worth of shares of that stock, is that considered "net free"?
Or is that term reserved for when you buy shares/contracts and sell enough at a profit to have the remainder with a cost basis of $0?
If I am selling puts on a stock, and make a profit of $50, and then use that profit to buy $50 worth of shares of that stock, is that considered "net free"?
Or is that term reserved for when you buy shares/contracts and sell enough at a profit to have the remainder with a cost basis of $0?
In general, net free is when your effective cost basis is $0. Note that it's not calculated the same way for tax purposes. I think using options profit to buy shares is fine and technically works the same way. I would just make sure you keep detailed notes.CC09LawAg said:
Question for the board regarding net free:
If I am selling puts on a stock, and make a profit of $50, and then use that profit to buy $50 worth of shares of that stock, is that considered "net free"?
Or is that term reserved for when you buy shares/contracts and sell enough at a profit to have the remainder with a cost basis of $0?
HA beat me to it
Thanks - yeah, the taxes thing is a mess but I generally just assume if they can screw me on it they will. That's where I start my analysis and go from there.
I didn't know if "net free" was a technical term with a specific industry meaning or something that could be a little more loose in its definition.
Thanks.
I didn't know if "net free" was a technical term with a specific industry meaning or something that could be a little more loose in its definition.
Thanks.
Curious as to how yall approach illness outbreaks in the food sector. McDonald's just had an E.Coli outbreak news drop and dropped nearly 10% extended hours. Haven't paid attention to these events in the past and Google is not being helpful. Do drops like this keep going downward for a ways historically for more than 24 hours or is it just a panic spike that corrects quickly?
ETA: Just read the blurbs and appears to be pretty serious.
https://www.cdc.gov/ecoli/outbreaks/investigation-update-e-coli-o157-2024.html
ETA: Just read the blurbs and appears to be pretty serious.
https://www.cdc.gov/ecoli/outbreaks/investigation-update-e-coli-o157-2024.html
Quote:
As of October 22, 49 people infected with the outbreak strain of E. coli O157:H7 have been reported from 10 states. Illnesses started on dates ranging from Sept 27, 2024, to October 11, 2024. Of 28 people with information available, 10 have been hospitalized, and 1 person developed hemolytic uremic syndrome, a serious condition that can cause kidney failure. One death has been reported from an older adult in Colorado. This is not the same person with HUS.
The true number of sick people in this outbreak is likely much higher than the number reported, and the outbreak may not be limited to the states with known illnesses. This is because many people recover without medical care and are not tested for E. coli. In addition, recent illnesses may not yet be reported as it usually takes 3 to 4 weeks to determine if a sick person is part of an outbreak.
me, personally, I would maybe compare it to the Crowdstrike issue and wait a week or so...I would not touch it tomorrow with a 10 foot pole
EDIT - if it continues to bleed down to the $260-270 level, I might look at selling some OTM puts next Monday with the increased volatility paying some decent premium with less downside risk than owning the shares...
EDIT - if it continues to bleed down to the $260-270 level, I might look at selling some OTM puts next Monday with the increased volatility paying some decent premium with less downside risk than owning the shares...
Took chipotle 4 years for the stock to recover after their E. coli outbreak in 2015 with 0 deaths. There's at least 1 death with the McDonald's outbreak so no idea how long this lasts
Aye, that was my first instinct, but figured it wouldn't hurt to ask here from the pros who have assuredly seen and navigated through these before. I have never paid attention to these events from the financials side before.EnronAg said:
me, personally, I would maybe compare it to the Crowdstrike issue and wait a week or so...I would not touch it tomorrow with a 10 foot pole
EDIT - if it continues to bleed down to the $260-270 level, I might look at selling some OTM puts next Monday with the increased volatility paying some decent premium with less downside risk than owning the shares...
I've been looking at accruing some more long term holds and McDs has been on the shortlist so wondering when the time to jump in would be. Not as flexible this time of year to chase it downward so wanted to ask for a feasible and smarter first jump. Wait and see a bit more sounds good to me! Thanks
they just interviewed Katie Stockton on CNBC who is a technical guru and she said you can really throw out a lot of the technicals in a situation like this...especially the moving averages...not sure people step in front of this even if/when it hits the 200d at $280ish...she said you really wanna wait until a lot of the indicators start to turn (MACD specifically mentioned) and look for when it is just really washed out and oversold (RSI)...now it could spike quick, but all on the panel said to wait as this is a really sharp falling knife right now...
Me personally, staying away as I was already leaning to this approaching selloff potential. Now that people have a reason to sell outside of guessing about how much inflation on the middle class is hurting purchasing power and how expensive bad hamburgers are, I think MCD might be in for a rude period.