If SLV closes over $30, we just need it to play nicely and not retrace back down next so I can tell yall to
Aiming for $40
Aiming for $40
Stock Markets
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Last: 10 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
Brian Earl Spilner said:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-computer-says-shipping-111500808.html
All the good they are doing can't be fully appreciated until they get their accounting issues sorted out. Personally, I still believe there is something to the Hindenburg case. And, I don't think it affects SMCI alone. I think there are some other large company fingerprints in the their books which would devastate the entire AI market.
NVDA. Hands in each others cookie jars. Rumor is that SMCI can't follow through on Blackwell orders due to their accounts being falsely bloated, and they are 25% of all future orders.TTUArmy said:Brian Earl Spilner said:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-computer-says-shipping-111500808.html
All the good they are doing can't be fully appreciated until they get their accounting issues sorted out. Personally, I still believe there is something to the Hindenburg case. And, I don't think it affects SMCI alone. I think there are some other large company fingerprints in the their books which would devastate the entire AI market.
Makes sense why all the big dogs dumped NVDA- someone always knows.Heineken-Ashi said:NVDA. Hands in each others cookie jars. Rumor is that SMCI can't follow through on Blackwell orders due to their accounts being falsely bloated, and they are 25% of all future orders.TTUArmy said:Brian Earl Spilner said:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/super-micro-computer-says-shipping-111500808.html
All the good they are doing can't be fully appreciated until they get their accounting issues sorted out. Personally, I still believe there is something to the Hindenburg case. And, I don't think it affects SMCI alone. I think there are some other large company fingerprints in the their books which would devastate the entire AI market.
Heineken-Ashi said:
If SLV closes over $30, we just need it to play nicely and not retrace back down next so I can tell yall to
Aiming for $40
$40 would be sweet… I've got a handful of 12/31 $45's at .07
SLV launch has teased us forever. I may need counseling if he retraces back to mid 20's again.Heineken-Ashi said:
If SLV closes over $30, we just need it to play nicely and not retrace back down next so I can tell yall to
Aiming for $40
just in my 40's so not as seasoned or experienced as some of you...but has anyone seen a more impressive market than what we have now...nothing holds it back...bad economic data, ignores it...geopolitical conflicts, don't care...every dip is bought voraciously...this trajectory is just amazing to me since 2 years ago...I, personally, have never seen anything so strong...can someone give a time period that matches or surpasses this time we are in??
It's pretty much mirroring the exact same thing from late 2021.EnronAg said:
just in my 40's so not as seasoned or experienced as some of you...but has anyone seen a more impressive market than what we have now...nothing holds it back...bad economic data, ignores it...geopolitical conflicts, don't care...every dip is bought voraciously...this trajectory is just amazing to me since 2 years ago...I, personally, have never seen anything so strong...can someone give a time period that matches or surpasses this time we are in??
Talon2DSO said:
Big volume on HL (Hecla Mining). Could be good for SLV as well.
Glad I jumped in when I did. Anyone else join me on HL?
Is it simply just too much money has been printed and now printing more money is the only way for everything to not come crashing down, no matter who wins the Presidency? Those Boomers retiring soon who are poor will struggle with the inflation and those who think they are ready for retirement are tied to the stock market and will suffer with any significant pull-backs. It all seems crazy, but I am definitely not one who knows stocks or investing well.EnronAg said:
just in my 40's so not as seasoned or experienced as some of you...but has anyone seen a more impressive market than what we have now...nothing holds it back...bad economic data, ignores it...geopolitical conflicts, don't care...every dip is bought voraciously...this trajectory is just amazing to me since 2 years ago...I, personally, have never seen anything so strong...can someone give a time period that matches or surpasses this time we are in??
Have 1.5k shares purchased under $5Talon2DSO said:Talon2DSO said:
Big volume on HL (Hecla Mining). Could be good for SLV as well.
Glad I jumped in when I did. Anyone else join me on HL?
yes, but you are talking about 6 or so months...this market has been rip roaring for 24+ months in the face of recession fears, multiple geopolitical conflicts, piling US debt, and a very weakened lower to middle class population...I don't recall late 2021 having so many fears, while this 24+ month period has just ripped right thru all of it no problem...just ignores everything that one would think would cause the market to lose steam or have some really volatile downturns...but NOPE!Heineken-Ashi said:It's pretty much mirroring the exact same thing from late 2021.EnronAg said:
just in my 40's so not as seasoned or experienced as some of you...but has anyone seen a more impressive market than what we have now...nothing holds it back...bad economic data, ignores it...geopolitical conflicts, don't care...every dip is bought voraciously...this trajectory is just amazing to me since 2 years ago...I, personally, have never seen anything so strong...can someone give a time period that matches or surpasses this time we are in??
I mean.. 2021 was knowing all the spending that was coming, the election was stolen stuff, Biden stumbling everywhere, fumbling the middle east and getting soldiers killed, Russia might invade Ukraine soon, on and on and on. Reality set in at the turn of the year.EnronAg said:yes, but you are talking about 6 or so months...this market has been rip roaring for 24+ months in the face of recessions fears, multiple geopolitical conflicts, piling US debt, and very weaken lower to middle class population...I don't recall late 2021 having so many fears, while this 24+ month period has just ripped right thru all of it no problem...just ignores everything that one would think would cause the market to lose steam or have some really volatile downturns...but NOPE!Heineken-Ashi said:It's pretty much mirroring the exact same thing from late 2021.EnronAg said:
just in my 40's so not as seasoned or experienced as some of you...but has anyone seen a more impressive market than what we have now...nothing holds it back...bad economic data, ignores it...geopolitical conflicts, don't care...every dip is bought voraciously...this trajectory is just amazing to me since 2 years ago...I, personally, have never seen anything so strong...can someone give a time period that matches or surpasses this time we are in??
You can make up whatever narrative you want. The market doesn't react the way you think it does. It's driven by liquidity and sentiment. And we're entering a FOMO type of period similar to late 2021. Only difference is we have a potential volatile event within the next 20 days that 2021 didn't have.
And while the EXACT 2007 timeline didn't come to pass, where the market should have started its drop already, it's still a relatively valid comparison based on the structural similarities with bond yields and asset valuations. I've also started looking at the late 1960's. As you recall, 1968 was an election year that saw MLK assassinated, Korea doing crazy things, Vietnam ramping up, an incumbent president announcing he would not seek reelection with the VP announcing his candidacy, an RFK running for president AND getting assassinated, student protests and riots, and a Republican win the presidency running on a platform of reversing all the dem policies.. who had also failed in a previous presidential campaign.
Between the 1960's and early 1970's, the market made 3 major highs and retraced them all significantly, with rising inflation and world geopolitics as the main concerns.
Between the 1960's and early 1970's, the market made 3 major highs and retraced them all significantly, with rising inflation and world geopolitics as the main concerns.
John Paulson: A lot of economic growth is due to deficit spending (cnbc.com)EnronAg said:
just in my 40's so not as seasoned or experienced as some of you...but has anyone seen a more impressive market than what we have now...nothing holds it back...bad economic data, ignores it...geopolitical conflicts, don't care...every dip is bought voraciously...this trajectory is just amazing to me since 2 years ago...I, personally, have never seen anything so strong...can someone give a time period that matches or surpasses this time we are in??
This interview happened earlier today and it explains a lot of why everything is just chugging higher, regardless of the negative headwinds. It's only 5 mins, but it's enlightening.
Not to mention banks are practically getting paid to NOT make loans. It's a period of fiscal dominance backstopped by massive deficit spending. Yet the monetary side (the FED) is now loosening again. So they both going in the direction of inflating assets after 1.5 years of the FED attempting to fight the fiscal side with aggressive monetary policy.
Yep, but his breakdown of all growth is the result of deficit spending should be making everyone's ears perk up.Heineken-Ashi said:
Not to mention banks are practically getting paid to NOT make loans. It's a period of fiscal dominance backstopped by massive deficit spending. Yet the monetary side (the FED) is now loosening again. So they both going in the direction of inflating assets after 1.5 years of the FED attempting to fight the fiscal side with aggressive monetary policy.
Tl;dr version: The markets have been flooded with government money and the macros are artificially inflated. I don't know when, but a day of reckoning is coming and a lot of retail folks will be the ones that get obliterated.
This is a huge part of the growth in equities since 2020.Heineken-Ashi said:
Not to mention banks are practically getting paid to NOT make loans. It's a period of fiscal dominance backstopped by massive deficit spending. Yet the monetary side (the FED) is now loosening again. So they both going in the direction of inflating assets after 1.5 years of the FED attempting to fight the fiscal side with aggressive monetary policy.
Your 401k may have doubled, but your purchasing power has mostly been cut in half as well.
Equities are a great spot to protect yourself from inflation, but the real growth has not been crazy in my opinion.
For example MCDs Revenue from 21-23 went from $23B to $24.5B. Did they sell 1/2 a billion more burgers, or do burgers just cost $2 more?
A lot of people in the lower/middle class want to point fingers at the rich, Boomers and capitalism failing them. It's the government running massive deficits and low interest rates for decades now that benefited these groups the most. The lower/middle class can really only take advantage of this through equities, their primary residence appreciating and possibly being employed directly or indirectly by the government.ProgN said:John Paulson: A lot of economic growth is due to deficit spending (cnbc.com)EnronAg said:
just in my 40's so not as seasoned or experienced as some of you...but has anyone seen a more impressive market than what we have now...nothing holds it back...bad economic data, ignores it...geopolitical conflicts, don't care...every dip is bought voraciously...this trajectory is just amazing to me since 2 years ago...I, personally, have never seen anything so strong...can someone give a time period that matches or surpasses this time we are in??
This interview happened earlier today and it explains a lot of why everything is just chugging higher, regardless of the negative headwinds. It's only 5 mins, but it's enlightening.
As a Millennial, I'm grateful for being a saver and investing at a very young age through this period. What is the true cost of this though? Will all the wealth make its way to the ruling class? Will the dollar become worthless? Will BRICS become an actual thing with all countries choosing sides now? Will we spend a few decades building up everything we lost through globalization and experience massive inflation?
I'm rooting for us to turn it around but I just have to make as much money as I can now and plan for the worst. I fear a lost decade or worse after peak AI and I hope I can still underwrite my portfolio at 6% yearly returns. Ignorance is bliss, I guess.
If you're not in Aramark, give it a look. It's sub $40 now and near ATH. Also, a couple congressmen just bought a few million worth after a recent homeland security hearing.
Primary residence appreciating only creates higher insurance and property taxes these days. So I'd say the middle class gets screwed on that one too. Especially in Texas
ALB Close to a breakout
At least you didn't drop the ball like me! I still don't own a home and it's probably my biggest financial mistake. Absolutely these costs hurt, it's great seeing it appreciate on paper but then you realize your liabilities via taxes, insurance etc. increase as well on an asset you'll just sell to buy a more expensive one.
I honestly start to wonder if the "spend it all and don't save" people are going to end up better off than me.
At least they've spent all of their money when it was at its highest value. My fear is I'll have a pile of money that can't keep up with what is to come and I would've been better off just YOLOing it like all these idiots.
And I call them idiots, but maybe they'll end up having enjoyed the ride a lot more than me in the end.
Uncertain times for sure.
At least they've spent all of their money when it was at its highest value. My fear is I'll have a pile of money that can't keep up with what is to come and I would've been better off just YOLOing it like all these idiots.
And I call them idiots, but maybe they'll end up having enjoyed the ride a lot more than me in the end.
Uncertain times for sure.
That's because 95% of people that walk the planet actively avoid conflict and/or confrontation because it makes them uncomfortable, and they waste energy worrying about hurting their feelings. I was not born with that affliction. I challenge the appraisal board every year, and they have lost every year. It's very easy and they are banking on the fact that you are a part of the 95% and an idiot. If anyone is interested, then I'll post what I do and have done yearly with my local appraisal board for years.El_duderino said:
Primary residence appreciating only creates higher insurance and property taxes these days. So I'd say the middle class gets screwed on that one too. Especially in Texas
I protest every year and have lost several times, even with professional help. Not to say their valuations are wrong or anything, but mine have definitely gone up despite protesting.ProgN said:That's because 95% of people that walk the planet actively avoid conflict and/or confrontation because it makes them uncomfortable, and they waste energy worrying about hurting their feelings. I was not born with that affliction. I challenge the appraisal board every year, and they have lost every year. It's very easy and they are banking on the fact that you are a part of the 95% and an idiot. If anyone is interested, then I'll post what I do and have done yearly with my local appraisal board for years.El_duderino said:
Primary residence appreciating only creates higher insurance and property taxes these days. So I'd say the middle class gets screwed on that one too. Especially in Texas
I agree about the 95% and I'm not one of those. I protest, but am losing ground with the exponential amount of houses now around me that are selling for stupid prices. I'm definitely interested in what you do
I'm interestedProgN said:That's because 95% of people that walk the planet actively avoid conflict and/or confrontation because it makes them uncomfortable, and they waste energy worrying about hurting their feelings. I was not born with that affliction. I challenge the appraisal board every year, and they have lost every year. It's very easy and they are banking on the fact that you are a part of the 95% and an idiot. If anyone is interested, then I'll post what I do and have done yearly with my local appraisal board for years.El_duderino said:
Primary residence appreciating only creates higher insurance and property taxes these days. So I'd say the middle class gets screwed on that one too. Especially in Texas
Do you pay for a current appraisal from a reputable/experienced appraiser before you go to argue? That's the key because that appraisal will have detailed comps in your area and similar Sqft and age in your general area. The appraised market value of what I can list my house for is the most that I will agree to. It's always been much lower compared to their appraised value. Also, in my area, you have to go through the new hires first which have the power to lower you appraised value by 5-10%. Never take that. They'll then schedule you a meeting to go before the appraisal board a few weeks later. Take your current appraisal with you, but look at the comparable comps in that appraisal so your argument is stronger. Don't get intimidated because that's what they want. If they won't budge use these two phrases on them.harge57 said:I protest every year and have lost several times, even with professional help. Not to say their valuations are wrong or anything, but mine have definitely gone up despite protesting.ProgN said:That's because 95% of people that walk the planet actively avoid conflict and/or confrontation because it makes them uncomfortable, and they waste energy worrying about hurting their feelings. I was not born with that affliction. I challenge the appraisal board every year, and they have lost every year. It's very easy and they are banking on the fact that you are a part of the 95% and an idiot. If anyone is interested, then I'll post what I do and have done yearly with my local appraisal board for years.El_duderino said:
Primary residence appreciating only creates higher insurance and property taxes these days. So I'd say the middle class gets screwed on that one too. Especially in Texas
1) Anyone of you bring your checkbook? Because if one of you writes me a check for your appraised value, then it's yours and I'll be out by Sunday. Say this, "I don't mind paying property tax on my home for the value that I could sell it for should I list it. Is the county going to write me a check for the difference between what I can sell it for and what you think it's worth?
They'll say no of course, but keep pressing and don't backdown.
2) Tell them that you'd like to appraise their homes and see if they're comfortable paying taxes for a higher value than they can list it for.
Putting them on the spot with a valid argument and not backing down will make them backdown. They may not match your 'real' appraisal you paid for, but it will be damn close and a lot lower. Then as you're packing up your file, thank them and say, "I'll see you all next year".
ETA: Keep this in mind too. Those board members are in the 95% and are uncomfortable being challenged, so use that to your advantage.
This reminds me of the 1990 to 1999 timeframe where everything associated with a ".com" was skyrocketing without any rationale. There was a lot of "can't stop...wont stop" thinking. It was then that l realized PE ratios, fundamentals, management styles and talent meant nothing anymore. Then came the bubble in 2000 that hurt a bunch of people.EnronAg said:
just in my 40's so not as seasoned or experienced as some of you...but has anyone seen a more impressive market than what we have now...nothing holds it back...bad economic data, ignores it...geopolitical conflicts, don't care...every dip is bought voraciously...this trajectory is just amazing to me since 2 years ago...I, personally, have never seen anything so strong...can someone give a time period that matches or surpasses this time we are in
harge57 said:I protest every year and have lost several times, even with professional help. Not to say their valuations are wrong or anything, but mine have definitely gone up despite protesting.ProgN said:That's because 95% of people that walk the planet actively avoid conflict and/or confrontation because it makes them uncomfortable, and they waste energy worrying about hurting their feelings. I was not born with that affliction. I challenge the appraisal board every year, and they have lost every year. It's very easy and they are banking on the fact that you are a part of the 95% and an idiot. If anyone is interested, then I'll post what I do and have done yearly with my local appraisal board for years.El_duderino said:
Primary residence appreciating only creates higher insurance and property taxes these days. So I'd say the middle class gets screwed on that one too. Especially in Texas
Same here. I finally paid a third party this year for the first time. While they shaved some off the market value I still didn't save any money. Couldn't get below the 10% homestead increase so the protest fees actually cost me more money.
Interested in protest info too
Read below what I wrote. I've had to argue that fact as well, and that's why you need to study the comps of similar houses in your area and what they sold for. The board will say that that's what they believe your house is worth, then tell them to write you a check! They've said to me that no one else in my similar comps protested their appraisals. My reply was, "it's not my fault that they're stupid".El_duderino said:
I agree about the 95% and I'm not one of those. I protest, but am losing ground with the exponential amount of houses now around me that are selling for stupid prices. I'm definitely interested in what you do
If you live in Texas, your tax rates have been coming down significantly for 4-5 years. So your total taxes paid shouldn't have really risen that much. Certainly not as much as your valuation would lead to believe. We also got the higher exemption amount of school taxes that went into effect last year.
Personally, since 2019, my house has doubled in price. My tax bill has gone up 12.5%.
Who's paying the most is commercial real estate and people with investment properties and second homes. No exemptions. Most CRE is likely up 50% or more on tax bills since 2019.
Insurance on the other hand, that's the big one that is affecting EVERYONE. I'm up over 2x since 2019. 40% is the renewal notice I got for my next year. Going shopping, but not sure it will do much good considering I just had to put a claim in and put on a new roof from the derecho damage.
Personally, since 2019, my house has doubled in price. My tax bill has gone up 12.5%.
Who's paying the most is commercial real estate and people with investment properties and second homes. No exemptions. Most CRE is likely up 50% or more on tax bills since 2019.
Insurance on the other hand, that's the big one that is affecting EVERYONE. I'm up over 2x since 2019. 40% is the renewal notice I got for my next year. Going shopping, but not sure it will do much good considering I just had to put a claim in and put on a new roof from the derecho damage.
Read my posts below yours.
Although that is true, it doesn't matter and majority of homeowners flush a lot of money.Heineken-Ashi said:
If you live in Texas, your tax rates have been coming down significantly for 4-5 years. So your total taxes paid shouldn't have really risen that much. Certainly not as much as your valuation would lead to believe. We also got the higher exemption amount of school taxes that went into effect last year.
Personally, since 2019, my house has doubled in price. My tax bill hs gone up 12.5%.
Who's paying the most is commercial real estate and people with investment properties and second homes. No exemptions. Most CRE is likely up 50% or more on tax bills since 2019.
Insurance on the other hand, that's the big one that is affecting EVERYONE. I'm up over 2x since 2019. 40% is the renewal notice I got for my next year. Going shopping, but not sure it will do much good considering I just had to put a claim in and put on a new roof from the derecho damage.
You should only have to pay property tax on the value of what you can list and sell your house for. Matter of fact, houses in my area dropped last year, so I was able to lower my tax liability from the year before because I fought it with a current appraisal because the county had to lower it to the value that I could list it for. This was also from a figure where they jumped it 20% from the previous year. No one wanted to write me a check, so they matched my appraised value to be done with me.
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