Be a bot cautious when we open. I think we are heading up, but let us confirm here for a bit before jumping in with both feet. QQQ will be making a nice looking W which could take is to ATH, but there will also be a nice gap below the open. Like I said, I'm bullish here but if I were planning a bull trap running it up in premarket for a false breakout is how I would bull trap.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I'm always cautious with bots like LMCane.Bob Knights Paper Hands said:
Be a bot cautious when we open. I think we are heading up, but let us confirm here for a bit before jumping in with both feet. QQQ will be making a nice looking W which could take is to ATH, but there will also be a nice gap below the open. Like I said, I'm bullish here but if I were planning a bull trap running it up in premarket for a false breakout is how I would bull trap.
I have some SPY $568 calls that expire today, so I'm watching very closely today. Think I'll take off 1/3 at the open, and carefully ride the rest.
This is absurd but I'll take it.
I think we can churn higher, but I plan on collaring some of my larger positions instead of selling outright. What a massive run the past couple of years and I'm not buying the "inflation is over" narrative. It's time to take chips off the table for me.
spud1910 said:
Yeah, I am over 50% cash in trading account now. And most of what is not cash is in CORZ.
where are you parking your "cash"?
I have mine in SWVXX and wondering if it there is a better option or if I should move it out of my Schwab account and into a high yield savings.
SPY filled yesterday's spike high gap on the rate cut...time for rocket ship!!! donkey market got more legs until the left terminates Trump...
I agree with you...inflation will rear it's ugly head again in early 2025...Chef Elko said:
I think we can churn higher, but I plan on collaring some of my larger positions instead of selling outright. What a massive run the past couple of years and I'm not buying the "inflation is over" narrative. It's time to take chips off the table for me.
Others probably have better suggestions but I just have mine in my trading account ready to put back in at the right opportunity.
Smart chart people - I have $184 as an important support/resistance line on POWL going back to March when this run up began. Seems like that is where the action flips a lot.
Does anybody else see that?
Does anybody else see that?
I've had about half in my brokerage (in SWVXX) and the other half in a high yield savings. SWVXX has had slightly better yields than the HSA the last year or so, but that could potentially change with lowering interest rates. Will be interesting to see which one declines quicker.Churlish Sambino said:spud1910 said:
Yeah, I am over 50% cash in trading account now. And most of what is not cash is in CORZ.
where are you parking your "cash"?
I have mine in SWVXX and wondering if it there is a better option or if I should move it out of my Schwab account and into a high yield savings.
With today's move up, if we break to new highs we will be following the 2007 post rate cut trend.
The only difference is that Sep 18th, 2007 had a nearly 3% SPX gain on the 18th, and a nearly 7% gain at it's peak on October 11th. And it wasn't until October 5th that it made a new high. We made a new high on the 17th and finished down on the 18th. In 2007, the top was a little more than 1.3% above the previous high. The same move about previous high from July now would be 5746.
None of this means we are for sure going to follow 2007 or that any of those figures can be forecasted to present day. But the general trend is something to watch, as that's still the MOST applicable historical context we have to today's financial and market environment.
The only difference is that Sep 18th, 2007 had a nearly 3% SPX gain on the 18th, and a nearly 7% gain at it's peak on October 11th. And it wasn't until October 5th that it made a new high. We made a new high on the 17th and finished down on the 18th. In 2007, the top was a little more than 1.3% above the previous high. The same move about previous high from July now would be 5746.
None of this means we are for sure going to follow 2007 or that any of those figures can be forecasted to present day. But the general trend is something to watch, as that's still the MOST applicable historical context we have to today's financial and market environment.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Collared half my Apple position, 1/17/25 exp, sold the $260C and Bought the $200P for a mere $60. I'll forfeit any gains over ~15% to protect losses more than ~12% for the next 4 months. Decreasing my risk and stress levels at the same time haha
It's not just the inflation measures to me, I can't trust what the govt is telling us with anything they report. Almost every figure is revised upwards at a later date. CPI is just the most obvious due to the constant tinkering with the basket of goods.EnronAg said:I agree with you...inflation will rear it's ugly head again in early 2025...Chef Elko said:
I think we can churn higher, but I plan on collaring some of my larger positions instead of selling outright. What a massive run the past couple of years and I'm not buying the "inflation is over" narrative. It's time to take chips off the table for me.
I just pulled up the CPI report on the BLS website and the largest decreases over the LTM can be attributed to oil and gas decreases and used cars and trucks. Ok cool, used cars and trucks don't matter and both oil and gas have been massively oversupplied. Natural gas prices are near record lows and storage record high, coal storage at the high end, we are producing more oil than ever before and the long term WTI strip price is hovering just below $65 with current prices around $70. Yet in the LTM electricity prices are up, transportation services are up, food prices are up with other not so correlated expenses shelter and medical care services also up. Everything that actually matters isn't getting better.
Below is the August 2024 report I'm referring to, Page 2 Table A.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
TLT, I'm looking for a 3-wave move to $94-$96, with it currently being in the initial move down. From there, once it breaks above the $101 level, it should be on its way to $110 and then $120 over the next year.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I'm open to learn about the job figures, PPI and other metrics if anyone has any insight. I'm just most familiar with CPI.
So what do you do with a stock like Dell? I'm up over 20% in a matter of weeks and think it's a strong company with tons of growth in the future. I'm also thinking there is no way we don't have a massive downward market move within the next year. I'm thinking just take my profits and park the money. I've started doing a little swing trading this year and have had one of the best years ever not getting greedy and locking in 10-20% profits.
As of this week I'm about 55% cash and more if I sell Dell. And the reason I think that's smart is Cramer this morning was saying he can't understand why anyone would be selling this week and it makes no sense to not be investing it. That kind of reassured me cash is smart right now.
As of this week I'm about 55% cash and more if I sell Dell. And the reason I think that's smart is Cramer this morning was saying he can't understand why anyone would be selling this week and it makes no sense to not be investing it. That kind of reassured me cash is smart right now.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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A lot depends on how closely you can watch the market. You may be right that we have a whole market downturn coming up, but the when and how are always the hardest parts to predict.
Instead of selling shares during a move up, what if you set mental stops of selling x% here and y% there. You could base these on moving averages, pivot points, or even your own tollerance. Then you could move those up if the market rises for a few weeks. That way you protect your capital against major downturn, but you don't let preconceived notions prevent you from profiting on market gains - even of we both think those gains are house of cards.
Instead of selling shares during a move up, what if you set mental stops of selling x% here and y% there. You could base these on moving averages, pivot points, or even your own tollerance. Then you could move those up if the market rises for a few weeks. That way you protect your capital against major downturn, but you don't let preconceived notions prevent you from profiting on market gains - even of we both think those gains are house of cards.
I think it gets to $132-$137. Beyond that, I can't guarantee upside and would say the threat of a significant selloff move is higher than the potential for a new ATH. $125 would be my FIRST period of resistance.giddings_ag_06 said:
So what do you do with a stock like Dell? I'm up over 20% in a matter of weeks and think it's a strong company with tons of growth in the future. I'm also thinking there is no way we don't have a massive downward market move within the next year. I'm thinking just take my profits and park the money. I've started doing a little swing trading this year and have had one of the best years ever not getting greedy and locking in 10-20% profits.
As of this week I'm about 55% cash and more if I sell Dell. And the reason I think that's smart is Cramer this morning was saying he can't understand why anyone would be selling this week and it makes no sense to not be investing it. That kind of reassured me cash is smart right now.
It's looking more and more like we are going up for the next 1-4 weeks. But once stocks like this hit that 100% move of their post Aug 5th rise from their recent low, especially tech stocks, the threat of a selloff gets very real.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Sell and take the money. Continue to stack singles and your account growth will surpass what you thought possible.
or ride it back down like you used to
or ride it back down like you used to
One thing you could do is calculate the the difference between current price and most recent low. Set a trailing stop for that amount. Chances are, you wont catch the top, but will end up significantly profitable.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
ProgN said:
Sell and take the money. Continue to stack singles and your account growth will surpass what you thought possible.
or ride it back down like you used to
This is kind of where I'm at. One kink in my trading is I work shift work so 5 days a month I'm sleeping through most of the trading day. That can burn you if you aren't on top of everything daily. I've been taking the domino game approach this year and just getting my nickels and dimes. They eventually add up to a big X with some little X's too.
Wise words here. I first started trading a few years ago when nothing seemed to miss. I got greedy and always wanted a home run. Quadrupled the money I started with and thought every trade I made should be a home run. Wound up losing my profits. I stayed out for awhile and then went back in last year trying to not lose singles by holding out for homeruns. In that time I have almost doubled the amount in that time.ProgN said:
Sell and take the money. Continue to stack singles and your account growth will surpass what you thought possible.
or ride it back down like you used to
Dude, you're getting a Dell!
Who's buying dell computers still? I did work for their finance company about 20 years ago. Lots of people financed them for free for 12 months interest free, problem was they tacked on the full 12 months interest with extra penalties if you didn't pay it off completely in 12 months. Sure you could pay 50 a month for 12 months, then the payments went up to 400$ monthly for a home computer.
Who's buying dell computers still? I did work for their finance company about 20 years ago. Lots of people financed them for free for 12 months interest free, problem was they tacked on the full 12 months interest with extra penalties if you didn't pay it off completely in 12 months. Sure you could pay 50 a month for 12 months, then the payments went up to 400$ monthly for a home computer.
I have an XPS13 and love it. Super thin and lightweight. But need docking stations for it to be useful.Quacked said:
Dude, you're getting a Dell!
Who's buying dell computers still? I did work for their finance company about 20 years ago. Lots of people financed them for free for 12 months interest free, problem was they tacked on the full 12 months interest with extra penalties if you didn't pay it off completely in 12 months. Sure you could pay 50 a month for 12 months, then the payments went up to 400$ monthly for a home computer.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I think that was in pretty much every electronics provider's playbook.
Any other degenerates still keep tabs on GME?
It's amazing to me how range bound this thing can be in light of the overall market recently.
It's amazing to me how range bound this thing can be in light of the overall market recently.
/any other product with interest free financing.
I don't even take into consideration their computer sales because they're pretty much irrelevant now. Their main area is servers for AI data centers. That said, I do believe that there will be a significant shift with AI and consumers will upgrade their PCs, that will be a growth driver for that segment of their business.Quacked said:
Dude, you're getting a Dell!
Who's buying dell computers still? I did work for their finance company about 20 years ago. Lots of people financed them for free for 12 months interest free, problem was they tacked on the full 12 months interest with extra penalties if you didn't pay it off completely in 12 months. Sure you could pay 50 a month for 12 months, then the payments went up to 400$ monthly for a home computer.
I'm not an investor though. I'm a swing trader. Buy when it's low and sell when it's peaking, stack singles, profit.
Every company in our industry seems to use Dell laptops. Not sure what their split on sales is for corporate versus B 2 C.
FDX just **** the bed with their ER
Nike up 8% after naming a new CEO.
Quad witch tomorrow.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
You gonna play the VIX? Tempting...Heineken-Ashi said:
Quad witch tomorrow.
how long gamma are dealers? I think we rip for another month...did today's market reaction surprise you and cause you to change any of your thesis?
I've been watching ALAB for a good entry point. Looks like a reversal on the yearly. Anyone else looking at this one?
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