Talon2DSO said:

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SLV.

We cutting bait or doubling down on this Sept 20 $27c?

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We were on the 30 yard line. Had a 2nd and 5. Ball was snapped over the QB's head and ended up a 15 yard loss. Need a miracle 3rd down conversion. But there's time on the clock. So still possible.

For Septembers, I'm no longer playing for the touchdown. I just want a first down now. Get some new chains and extend the drive. If the RB gets free I won't ask him to slide, but he needs to have a clear shot at the end zone for me to not take the points early.

I bought Nov and Jan $28's today. Will add a lot more if SLV sells off deeper. Might add some Sep $25's if they become out of the money, purely to take some profits on them on a small bounce and lower basis against higher strike potential losses.

All joking aside, the Sep plays were always on the thesis that election years of the past had multiple instances of August/September explosions. That's why I never advised selling out earlier in the year when they were up big. $30 was never the target. Would it have been smart to take 200-300% gains on all calls when available? In hindsight, ya. But I went net free on my positions multiple times and am only in a hole now from buying back at cheaper prices. And there's still 2.5 weeks left. If this market can't deliver now, then I will keep building my positions for 3-6 months out.

Number Monkey said:

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ALB has always been pushed as a long-term opportunity on this board. Not sure you'll get any opinions on a short-term trade, but I may be wrong.

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Correct, if you can time it perfectly, congrats. Otherwise it's a several month trade - seems like Prog suggested $100-$110 as reasonable potential.

Good evening. I don't like to pander but I have posted on this thread for a couple years now and feel like it's reasonable to ask in this instance.

We have good family friends who run a children's home in Piedras Negras. This facility has fed and educated impoverished children for over 40 yrs. I've laid bricks myself there going back to the 80s to help build this place.

The young man who currently oversees the ministry has just been diagnosed with leukemia. As you can imagine, he doesn't have insurance and they need money for his treatments. Any gifts you could provide would be very appreciated! Here is the go fund me.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/fight-cancer-with-eli-garcia?attribution_id=sl:a491b4c6-83e0-4baf-8e52-93bd880050e3&lang=en_US&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp9c&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

If you're interested in their ministry (it's amazing, btw!), here is the link to their website that explains the origins to where they are now. Jair Castillo founded the ministry and is very close with my family. https://vnmi.org/

Thanks to you all!

SMCI - It's been a wild ride since late last year. Before the turn of the year boom, I was looking for $100 in more of a measured correction off the August 2023 high. Instead, it was more of a sideways consolidation and ProgN nailed it to the upside, informing everyone here along the way. But like many stocks that go "too far too fast", the correction that never came tends to make the next seem much worse. And here we are. Choppy down initially into the $600's, choppy back up to $1,000 but below the high. From there, we have five pretty clear waves down. All of that encompassing a 3-wave abc correction pattern. Because the initial move off the high was only a 3-wave move down in April, and because this most recent move was 5-waves down, those happenings make it clear that is a corrective move, meaning that once this current downside structure completes, if it hasn't already, I don't see this just tearing off to massive new lows immediately. For that to be the case, the initial move down off the 2024 high into April would have needed to be a 5-wave pattern, and it wasn't. It "should" get a sizeable bounce soon. So what to expect next?

To start, I'm not sold it has bottomed, though I will be surprised if it gets lower than $375. The reason is that the first fib retracement level of the last 5-wave move up comes in at $379. That also happens to be within a dollar of the level where the C wave of this 3-wave pattern from the high equals 161.8% of the A wave, the golden ratio, and a very common landing place for C waves. Not shown on the chart below is the weekly 144 fib number EMA at $375. Just far too much confluence there between $375 and $380 to not be significant support. But this is the stock market we are dealing with, so I never assume a play is dead until the whistle is blown.

But if I am assuming it's either bottomed or is about to, I see two potential paths.

The one that would catch the most people offsides is the green path, where it makes a V shaped recovery, gives some back, and then goes higher into earnings. This could terminate anywhere between the high $600's and low $900's, though the most confluence with EMA's and other indicators is in the $700's. If you were to see that take shape, I'd use it as an opportunity to lessen the load and wait to see if it can hold a support level. Because if not, new lows would then be ripe as a possibility heading into an election.

The other possibility is more of a drawn-out path shown in yellow, likely to be a choppier path, with the same resistance levels, just likely taking through end of year or early next year and giving you a Christmas rally to celebrate before it fails to new lows.

The point here is, I'm expecting the next move to be an upward correction in a longer drawn, larger degree correction that could ultimately revisit the 2023 lows. It certainly doesn't have to be though. What would I look for to turn me bullish? I'd have to see a clear 5-wave impulsive move with little overlap into the $800-$900's and possibly even past $1,000. If so, I'd be looking to the next corrective pullback to enter my longs for new ATH's, with solid R/R between target and stop level. As of now, the move off the low this week is ugly and choppy which is what leads me to believe it's not quite done.

As far as my timed targets system, I don't have anything reliable in either direction right now except one that goes out over a year, and it's a lower target. The lack of reliable targets is also what is leading me to sitting and watching with no position. If we do get $380 or lower, I'll likely wait for signs of bottom to grab 100 shares with a stop just below that bottom. It should be fairly easy to make decent money if that lower range can hold in the coming days to weeks, even if it's not the most ideal path upward. If $375 breaks, even though it will show as massively oversold, I'll be staying away, as it will be beyond any support levels leaving it wide open to do just about anything. And I don't like purely gambling.

I know many of you don't care for Elliott Wave, and many others simply don't understand it, the labels, or the lingo. Feel free to ask questions. I'm not predicting anything here. I'm merely laying out what seems to be the most probable scenarios. This is where Elliott Wave shines. As a template that shows you support and resistance and potential targets along the way. But just because you have a blueprint doesn't mean it's smart to start buying materials. The place to enter for the most consistent gains is during a Wave 2 or the earliest stages of a 3rd wave, as the 3rd wave is where the money rolls in. You can see proof of that late last year on my chart.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Good evening. I don't like to pander but I have posted on this thread for a couple years now and feel like it's reasonable to ask in this instance.

We have good family friends who run a children's home in Piedras Negras. This facility has fed and educated impoverished children for over 40 yrs. I've laid bricks myself there going back to the 80s to help build this place.

The young man who currently oversees the ministry has just been diagnosed with leukemia. As you can imagine, he doesn't have insurance and they need money for his treatments. Any gifts you could provide would be very appreciated! Here is the go fund me.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/fight-cancer-with-eli-garcia?attribution_id=sl:a491b4c6-83e0-4baf-8e52-93bd880050e3&lang=en_US&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp9c&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

If you're interested in their ministry (it's amazing, btw!), here is the link to their website that explains the origins to where they are now. Jair Castillo founded the ministry and is very close with my family. https://vnmi.org/

Thanks to you all!

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Thanks doc. Donated.

Come back more. We miss you. And thanks for the Texags Pickoff win. Easy money. My only win of the week