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24,772,340 Views | 233480 Replies | Last: 1 min ago by ProgN
deddog
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AG
Anastasia Beaverhaven said:

kyle field 94 said:

How does this really happen? Why can't they get their act together and file timely?
The major issue with this is that it lends credence to Hindenburg's report yesterday about company disfunction.

I don't believe the whole report but SMCI is definitely showing cracks.
It's happened to my company, because of a last minute audit issue, that they sprang up on us.
An issue, they didn't mention until the last week of filing.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Well I averaged way down on SMCI, but it does suck seeing all my TNA profits on my Roth account this year wiped out by a single stock.

Now holding 83 shares.
South Platte
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CC09LawAg said:


ETA: In on DELL at 108.80 too. This drop was too good and right at the bottom of the range I had identified.
I think just yesterday you said you were about to take a breather after 1 last play. He's back for more baby!!
Heineken-Ashi
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SMCI, if it can't hold here, it could just keep creeping down to $375-$380. Below that and $360 is next.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
CC09LawAg
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The setup was too good!
WestTexasAg
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AG
Feeling great about my purchase of SMCI at $555 yesterday. Damn.
Heineken-Ashi
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Not trading advice, but today doesn't seem like something that will imminently continue. I think the market is walking a tightrope, but gun to my head, I think we might get a NVDA pop that makes this dip get bought. One more round of strength.

Many many instruments I am watching seem to need one more high off the August 5th low. Doesn't mean it has to happen. But I don't feel like the upside is complete enough to start a mega sell off.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
CC09LawAg
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The general sentiment I am seeing on social media almost sees today as a joke vs. back in early August when it seemed like everyone thought the sky was falling.
M4 Benelli
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South Platte said:

CC09LawAg said:


ETA: In on DELL at 108.80 too. This drop was too good and right at the bottom of the range I had identified.
I think just yesterday you said you were about to take a breather after 1 last play. He's back for more baby!!


Just as long as he doesn't get me cussed out by my boy Prog again, he can keep on trucking!
Anastasia Beaverhaven
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Appears that SMCI delayed their filing to review internal controls related to the Hindenburg report.
ProgN
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CC09LawAg
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It was a pretty good rant too
WestTexasAg
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AG
What do you think Prog? Should we be buying SMCI now that it has dipped below $400?
ProgN
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WestTexasAg said:

What do you think Prog? Should we be buying SMCI now that it has dipped below $400?
I'm not right now, because the shorts are pounding every uptick. I'm not selling any and it's now a longer hold for me than I originally thought it'd be. I don't think you'll get hurt at this price as long as you stomach the volatility in the short term.
HoustonAg2014
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AG
Chef Elko said:

Personally, I wouldn't move into individual stocks. You could keep it in index funds and hopefully graduate with a nice little head start with possibly $20-30k or so.


Respectfully I disagree. He is in college and can afford to take risks. He has a lifetime to put into index funds if he wishes. This is a great learning time for him and he won't learn anything putting into an index fund.
ProgN
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CC09LawAg said:

It was a pretty good rant too
WestTexasAg
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AG
ProgN said:

CC09LawAg said:

It was a pretty good rant too

Heineken-Ashi
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Higher targets I'm looking for before I get my bear suit back out and start dusting it off. Keep in mind that none of these are predictions, and many will likely not get hit. In fact, most of these I can view as the post Aug 5 bounce might be over and these targets are just the "one more high" that would absolutely confirm. But the majority of these getting hit is going to have me taking profits, trailing up stops, outright selling out of weak stuff, and going back to a major cash position until the other side of the election.

POWL $207
NVDA - $136
NFLX - $725
TSLA - $235
NDX - 20,350
TSM - $182
SPX - 5700
AAPL - $237
ZION - $51.70 (one I will absolutely buy puts on)
KRE - $59.50
AVGO - $175
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Heineken-Ashi
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HoustonAg2014 said:

Chef Elko said:

Personally, I wouldn't move into individual stocks. You could keep it in index funds and hopefully graduate with a nice little head start with possibly $20-30k or so.


Respectfully I disagree. He is in college and can afford to take risks. He has a lifetime to put into index funds if he wishes. This is a great learning time for him and he won't learn anything putting into an index fund.
Respectfully, this is an awful learning time unless the lesson you want to learn is how to buy into an incredibly overvalued market with the backdrop of an economy teetering on the edge.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
HoustonAg2014
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

HoustonAg2014 said:

Chef Elko said:

Personally, I wouldn't move into individual stocks. You could keep it in index funds and hopefully graduate with a nice little head start with possibly $20-30k or so.


Respectfully I disagree. He is in college and can afford to take risks. He has a lifetime to put into index funds if he wishes. This is a great learning time for him and he won't learn anything putting into an index fund.
Respectfully, this is an awful learning time unless the lesson you want to learn is how to buy into an incredibly overvalued market with the backdrop of an economy teetering on the edge.
Would you say investing in index funds at this time would be a good learning lesson? I guess you are implying that he should just stay out of the market for now which is fine. But investing in index funds in college won't teach you how to trade OR invest.
Heineken-Ashi
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HoustonAg2014 said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

HoustonAg2014 said:

Chef Elko said:

Personally, I wouldn't move into individual stocks. You could keep it in index funds and hopefully graduate with a nice little head start with possibly $20-30k or so.


Respectfully I disagree. He is in college and can afford to take risks. He has a lifetime to put into index funds if he wishes. This is a great learning time for him and he won't learn anything putting into an index fund.
Respectfully, this is an awful learning time unless the lesson you want to learn is how to buy into an incredibly overvalued market with the backdrop of an economy teetering on the edge.
Would you say investing in index funds at this time would be a good learning lesson? I guess you are implying that he should just stay out of the market for now which is fine. But investing in index funds in college won't teach you how to trade OR invest.
No, I would not be investing in index funds unless you have a short term target and defined stop.

And since he's young, relatively inexperienced, not a trader, and claims to be a longer term investor, I would absolutely advise him to be extremely careful in this market. Sure, $15,000 can be replaced fairly easily after a couple years of working and saving. But he will be replacing the majority of it if it just lets it sit in index funds or risky overvalued stocks. I'd advise him to paper trade through the election and maybe through the end of the year. Follow some of the stuff we do here. Buy the index funds you want. Watch what happens. Learn from it. All while clipping 5% cash in something safe with the little bit of money he has. After the next significant selloff, deploy that $15k and spread it around between a couple different stocks and an index fund or two.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
harge57
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AG
Assuming everyone in SMCI has read the report?

Quote:

  • Less than 3 months after paying a $17.5 million SEC settlement, Super Micro began re-hiring top executives that were directly involved in the accounting scandal, per litigation records and interviews with former employees.

Quote:

  • Former CFO Howard Hideshima left the company in January 2018 and was later individually charged by the SEC with accounting violations. In May 2023, he was hired by a key related party owned by Super Micro CEO's brother.

Quote:

  • Beyond fresh questions around its revenue accounting, we found that Super Micro's relationships with both disclosed and undisclosed related parties serve as fertile ground for dubious accounting.
  • For example, disclosed related party suppliers Ablecom and Compuware, controlled by Super Micro CEO Charles Liang's brothers, have been paid $983 million in the last 3 years. Ablecom is also partly owned by Super Micro CEO Charles Liang and his wife.
  • The relationships seem oddly circular. Super Micro provides components to the entities which assemble them and sell them back to Super Micro. They also rent warehousing and factory space to Super Micro even though it has its own sprawling factory.
  • The related parties seem to do little other business: ~99.8% of Ablecom's exports to the U.S. since 2020 were to Super Micro, and ~99.7% of Compuware's U.S. exports were to Super Micro, per trade records.

Quote:

  • When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. government imposed stringent restrictions and bans on exports to Russia of high-performance computers and components.
  • Super Micro disclosed that some of its products were subject to export bans and said it was halting all sales and had "not recorded revenue" from Russia since the day before the war started.
  • Exports of Super Micro's high-tech components to Russia have spiked ~3x since the invasion of Ukraine, apparently violating U.S. export bans, according to our review of more than 45,000 import/export transactions.
  • At least 46 companies that handled Super Micro products to Russia since the invasion are now under OFAC sanctions or on U.S. government watchlists.
  • Almost two-thirds of Super Micro's exports to Russia since the invasion correspond to "high priority" components that the Russian military may be diverting to the battlefield, per U.S. government warnings.
  • One of the biggest importers of Super Micro products in Russia is a supplier to one of Russia's largest "supercomputers" at a once-secret, now-sanctioned research center. That importer, Niagara Computers, has received at least $46.3 million worth of Super Micro products since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, per trade data.
  • The sales were initially made through a distributor in California, but were later made through 3 newly-formed Turkish shell companies, including one that was eventually sanctioned for smuggling restricted items to Russia.

ProgN
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harge57 said:

Assuming everyone in SMCI has read the report?

Quote:

  • Less than 3 months after paying a $17.5 million SEC settlement, Super Micro began re-hiring top executives that were directly involved in the accounting scandal, per litigation records and interviews with former employees.

Quote:

  • Former CFO Howard Hideshima left the company in January 2018 and was later individually charged by the SEC with accounting violations. In May 2023, he was hired by a key related party owned by Super Micro CEO's brother.

Quote:

  • Beyond fresh questions around its revenue accounting, we found that Super Micro's relationships with both disclosed and undisclosed related parties serve as fertile ground for dubious accounting.
  • For example, disclosed related party suppliers Ablecom and Compuware, controlled by Super Micro CEO Charles Liang's brothers, have been paid $983 million in the last 3 years. Ablecom is also partly owned by Super Micro CEO Charles Liang and his wife.
  • The relationships seem oddly circular. Super Micro provides components to the entities which assemble them and sell them back to Super Micro. They also rent warehousing and factory space to Super Micro even though it has its own sprawling factory.
  • The related parties seem to do little other business: ~99.8% of Ablecom's exports to the U.S. since 2020 were to Super Micro, and ~99.7% of Compuware's U.S. exports were to Super Micro, per trade records.

Quote:

  • When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. government imposed stringent restrictions and bans on exports to Russia of high-performance computers and components.
  • Super Micro disclosed that some of its products were subject to export bans and said it was halting all sales and had "not recorded revenue" from Russia since the day before the war started.
  • Exports of Super Micro's high-tech components to Russia have spiked ~3x since the invasion of Ukraine, apparently violating U.S. export bans, according to our review of more than 45,000 import/export transactions.
  • At least 46 companies that handled Super Micro products to Russia since the invasion are now under OFAC sanctions or on U.S. government watchlists.
  • Almost two-thirds of Super Micro's exports to Russia since the invasion correspond to "high priority" components that the Russian military may be diverting to the battlefield, per U.S. government warnings.
  • One of the biggest importers of Super Micro products in Russia is a supplier to one of Russia's largest "supercomputers" at a once-secret, now-sanctioned research center. That importer, Niagara Computers, has received at least $46.3 million worth of Super Micro products since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, per trade data.
  • The sales were initially made through a distributor in California, but were later made through 3 newly-formed Turkish shell companies, including one that was eventually sanctioned for smuggling restricted items to Russia.


I still want to see what their CEO says, but the analyst at JPM addresses that report.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/28/super-micro-shares-fall-23percent-on-filing-delay-hindenburg-research-report.html

Quote:

The stock is up more than 47% year to date, but investors were spooked on Tuesday after Hindenburg Research disclosed a short position in the company. Hindenburg said it identified "fresh evidence of accounting manipulation," according to its report. CNBC could not independently verify Hindenburg's claims. It is unclear if the delay in Super Micro's annual report is related to Hindenburg's findings.

Analysts at JPMorgan said some of Hindenburg's claims are "tough to verify," and they think the report is "largely void of details around alleged wrong doings from the company."

Even so, the analysts said Super Micro still has room for improvement when it comes to communicating with investors and establishing clear governance and transparency, especially since it has grown so rapidly due to demand for its AI servers.

As we dig into the details of the report, we believe there to be limited evidence of accounting mistreatments beyond revisiting the 2020 charges from the SEC, and limited new information relative to the existing and already known business relationship with related companies owned by the siblings of the founder of SMCI," the analysts wrote in a Tuesday note.
I still want to hear from the company though. This is another reason that small float stocks need to split their stocks more often, more shares means less volatility. If they'd have split their stock 10:1 when it was $1,000/shr, then retail could support a $40/shr stock and battle the shorts. The dumbasses didn't though and shorts can manipulate a 55M shr float stock. POWL is also dumb for not splitting at least 3:1 but they should've done a 5:1. POWL is even easier for the shorts to manipulate due to their tiny float.
tlh3842
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AG
HA, latest thoughts on SLV?
Heineken-Ashi
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I went over every single timeframe.. both common ones and fib times.. 21m, 30m, 34m, 55m, 1hr, 89m, 144m, 233m, 4hr, 1D.

That bottom this morning on POWL hit a key EMA, usually the same one that has been acting as support for the last couple of months, on every single one of them.

If we lose today's bottom, I will not be re-engaging for the double top play and will pivot back to H&S being my primary outlook.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Boy I'll feel a hell of a lot better about things if SMCI can recover to 460-480 range at least.

Up to 86 shares @ $546. Probably nearing what I feel comfortable holding for now. Maybe I'll up that 100 if we start seeing clear indications of a bottom, but that's it.
Heineken-Ashi
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tlh3842 said:

HA, latest thoughts on SLV?
I'd like to see one more high after holding today's low. If not, I really don't want to see below $26 again.

"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
HoustonAg2014
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AG
Understood and we just have differing opinions which is fine. He said that he has been involved in the market for 7 year (under guidance of his father). So although he is young, it is not like he is green to the market. I am not advising him to trade, but he sounds like he wants the risk reward of investing. I am sure his father would continue to mentor him along the way as he has for the 7 years...

I am not saying that jumping in right before the election is the smartest thing, but if he isn't worried because he has plenty of time, then I don't see the issue with being in the market.

Maybe I am reading this all wrong and I could be. Not scared to admit if I am wrong.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
So in the event (which is hopeful at this point) that NVDA beats, y'all think they pull up SMCI along with them?
Heineken-Ashi
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That's fine. But I'm someone who thinks any value gained in the short term is going to be completely erased over the next 6-12 months. So from my point of view, there's nothing to be gained, only lost.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
bmoochie
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AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:

Boy I'll feel a hell of a lot better about things if SMCI can recover to 460-480 range at least.

Up to 86 shares @ $546. Probably nearing what I feel comfortable holding for now. Maybe I'll up that 100 if we start seeing clear indications of a bottom, but that's it.
I don't know anything of your finances but why not add the 14 shares for ~$6k at this point and do weekly CC's? your costs basis lowers and premium is always juiced. might be able to make a little extra on it and if it recovers and get your shares called out then no harm?

Next week's $550s are going for about $4 as of this post. Just a thought since you are so close to 100 shares already.
harge57
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AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:

So in the event (which is hopeful at this point) that NVDA beats, y'all think they pull up SMCI along with them?
That was actually my thinking prior to this whole debacle and why I bought more SMCI yesterday. I think we would have seen a big push up on SMCI on good NVDA news, and it has a much higher ceiling. I am very uncertain on how that will all play out now.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Well for one thing, CC's would be completely new to me, although I could see this would be a good opportunity to learn them.

But the main problem is I have those shares scattered on two Schwab accounts. (72 in Roth, the rest in brokerage.) And don't have enough left in my Roth to get me up to 100.
bmoochie
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AG
Ahhh. Yeah then that wouldn't work then.
Heineken-Ashi
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We are officially back to short gamma. Not by a lot, but certainly notable going into NVDA earnings.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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