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Anastasia Beaverhaven
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In reply to kyle field 94 • 8:41a, 8/28/24
kyle field 94 said:
How does this really happen? Why can't they get their act together and file timely?
The major issue with this is that it lends credence to Hindenburg's report yesterday about company disfunction.

I don't believe the whole report but SMCI is definitely showing cracks.
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harge57
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In reply to kyle field 94 • 8:41a, 8/28/24
AG
kyle field 94 said:
How does this really happen? Why can't they get their act together and file timely?


Not sure, but I've seen this story before and my shares ended up being worth $0.

I am 100% out on this one for now. I'll take my loss and avoid the drama.
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GKrebs17
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8:44a, 8/28/24
AG
POWL bounce off 170?
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Diggity
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8:44a, 8/28/24
AG
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Chef Elko
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In reply to aggieland28 • 8:44a, 8/28/24
AG
Personally, I wouldn't move into individual stocks. You could keep it in index funds and hopefully graduate with a nice little head start with possibly $20-30k or so.
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to GKrebs17 • 8:55a, 8/28/24
If it does like it usually does, it will have a huge selloff first thing AM then make a slow grind back up all day. The amount of the drop it makes up depends but it's usually only a portion of the drop.

You usually know within the first hour which direction it is going for the day.

ETA: Now, longer term timeframe like a week or two? HA has made some posts on that and I'll defer to him because he's way smarter and had the 170 number nailed.
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MRB10
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In reply to Chef Elko • 9:00a, 8/28/24
AG
I'd argue to do this with no more than 30-50% of the funds given his age. This is the time to take some risks.

I'd probably put half in bitcoin if it were me.
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nortex97
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9:01a, 8/28/24
AG


That's a lot of cash on the sideline.
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bigtoneag
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In reply to CC09LawAg • 9:07a, 8/28/24
AG
Overreaction to an insider sell.
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Lee Van Cleef
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9:08a, 8/28/24
AG
I would appreciate any longs SMCI to give their perspective on how they are approaching their positions with the news of the last few days. I had built a position in late summer 2023 and slowly sold out (mostly)in early 2024. I re-built the position over this spring and summer with a current cost basis of $648. It is one of my largest positions.

It's frustrating hearing this company be mentioned with the likes of Nikola...my view is that this is a real company doing amazing things. What duty does the company have to communicate/respond to these allegations? It seems it is a guess as to why the 10K is being delayed. Were there whispers in the industry as to internal controls being out of whack? My focus/hope was on improving margins.

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CC09LawAg
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In reply to bigtoneag • 9:09a, 8/28/24
Is that what it is?

Even after the selloff after the Q2 high, there wasn't a red candle as big as this one at open.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:13a, 8/28/24
In on POWL. Stop $160 since I got a lower entry than $170. I will say, my expectation wasn't that I'd get the chance to make this entry today. I expected a move back to $190 before getting this chance. BECAUSE it came down without retracing at all, it's now formed an impulsive pattern pointing downward from the H&S top. It is not a good development, but the R/R is too good to not take a chance.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Anastasia Beaverhaven
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In reply to Lee Van Cleef • 9:15a, 8/28/24
Lee Van Cleef said:
I would appreciate any longs SMCI to give their perspective on how they are approaching their positions with the news of the last few days. I had built a position in late summer 2023 and slowly sold out (mostly)in early 2024. I re-built the position over this spring and summer with a current cost basis of $648. It is one of my largest positions.

It's frustrating hearing this company be mentioned with the likes of Nikola...my view is that this is a real company doing amazing things. What duty does the company have to communicate/respond to these allegations? It seems it is a guess as to why the 10K is being delayed. Were there whispers in the industry as to internal controls being out of whack? My focus/hope was on improving margins.

You're looking for Heineken or Prog here.
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ProgN
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In reply to Lee Van Cleef • 9:19a, 8/28/24
Lee Van Cleef said:
I would appreciate any longs SMCI to give their perspective on how they are approaching their positions with the news of the last few days. I had built a position in late summer 2023 and slowly sold out (mostly)in early 2024. I re-built the position over this spring and summer with a current cost basis of $648. It is one of my largest positions.

It's frustrating hearing this company be mentioned with the likes of Nikola...my view is that this is a real company doing amazing things. What duty does the company have to communicate/respond to these allegations? It seems it is a guess as to why the 10K is being delayed. Were there whispers in the industry as to internal controls being out of whack? My focus/hope was on improving margins.

This news isn't optimal and they're going to get destroyed today. I'm not selling any of my shares because they do have an actual product that's in demand and a lot of customers. This is not a Nikola. I'm just Lt. Dan riding out this storm for the time being. SMCI management does need to come out and address these allegations though.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:20a, 8/28/24
SMCI just tagged the daily 610 EMA. I expect a bounce between here and $375. I do not expect new highs. $700 is likely your cap. And moving up to the $600's to $700's from here is likely to be choppy. And I fully expect another selloff to follow that bounce.

This is likely not a correction in an uptrend. This is the end of the first phase of a large correction off a significant top. I would need to see a truly magnificent V shaped move significantly higher than $700 to even start to change my mind.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:21a, 8/28/24
AND YOU DO NOT HAVE TO BUY THE SELLOFF.

Wait for a bottom to form so you have a stop to set.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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LMCane
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In reply to Lee Van Cleef • 9:26a, 8/28/24
Lee Van Cleef said:
I would appreciate any longs SMCI to give their perspective on how they are approaching their positions with the news of the last few days. I had built a position in late summer 2023 and slowly sold out (mostly)in early 2024. I re-built the position over this spring and summer with a current cost basis of $648. It is one of my largest positions.

It's frustrating hearing this company be mentioned with the likes of Nikola...my view is that this is a real company doing amazing things. What duty does the company have to communicate/respond to these allegations? It seems it is a guess as to why the 10K is being delayed. Were there whispers in the industry as to internal controls being out of whack? My focus/hope was on improving margins.


man if SMCI is one of your largest positions you better be doing either serious praying or serious selling

why would you have the largest position in ONE risky company?
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Lee Van Cleef
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In reply to ProgN • 9:29a, 8/28/24
AG
Appreciate the perspective. Definitely feel like I'm Lieutenant Dan being carried off the battlefield shooting at no real target. I do think this takes some patience and discernment.
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to LMCane • 9:30a, 8/28/24
Super helpful discourse, thanks for your (non)contributions to this thread.
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Chef Elko
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:31a, 8/28/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
SMCI just tagged the daily 610 EMA. I expect a bounce between here and $375. I do not expect new highs. $700 is likely your cap. And moving up to the $600's to $700's from here is likely to be choppy. And I fully expect another selloff to follow that bounce.

This is likely not a correction in an uptrend. This is the end of the first phase of a large correction off a significant top. I would need to see a truly magnificent V shaped move significantly higher than $700 to even start to change my mind.



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harge57
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9:32a, 8/28/24
AG
Reasons companies delay 10-k filings:

1. Mergers or Acquisitions - Not likely
2. Litigation - Not aware of any
3. Bankruptcy - Not likely
4. Accounting/Issues with the audit - This seems to be most likely. Many times this results in a "material weakness" finding.

Again, this may be a buying opp or more hurt to come. I am out for now.
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Chef Elko
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In reply to LMCane • 9:32a, 8/28/24
AG
Why didn't you put every dollar in NVDA?!?!!!1!
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Chef Elko
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In reply to Lee Van Cleef • 9:34a, 8/28/24
AG
Don't worry! I think you just need to invest in Apple.
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WestTexasAg
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In reply to Chef Elko • 9:37a, 8/28/24
AG
Chef Elko said:
Don't worry! I think you just need to invest in Apple.
Only one green on my board so far today.
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Chef Elko
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In reply to WestTexasAg • 9:39a, 8/28/24
AG
I haven't even checked my big portfolio today, but good to hear Apple is up. I've been completely WRECKED today with SMCI and various others while the S&P is barely down.
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Anastasia Beaverhaven
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9:44a, 8/28/24
What are we thinking with NVDA earnings?
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:45a, 8/28/24
Woof. Seems like we may hit your 160 before lunchtime today.

ETA: Hopefully I spoke too soon.
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Number Monkey
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9:46a, 8/28/24
AG
Someone always knows something. The timing of the Hindenburg short position and article along with the filing delay announcement ended up being perfect for the short sellers. Retail gets screwed.
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Texaggie7nine
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9:48a, 8/28/24
Welp. Had a $528 limit order on SMCI that did not execute and is still active.
7nine
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Brewmaster
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9:49a, 8/28/24
AG
SMCI
I see 360 as next support. F'ing shorting ****bags. They will probably short the piss out of it just to buy shares and get a super low cost basis (them and their buddies).
If it can bounce from these lows, could see 460's (50% move), but no guarantees.

as Prog would say, if it fills the gap to 170, we are in WW3.
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TxAG#2011
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10:02a, 8/28/24
SMCI is a low margin service / construction company. Still wayyyy overvalued.
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Anastasia Beaverhaven
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In reply to TxAG#2011 • 10:09a, 8/28/24
TxAG#2011 said:
SMCI is a low margin service / construction company. Still wayyyy overvalued.
What should their value be and what is your basis for that valuation?
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CheladaAg
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In reply to Anastasia Beaverhaven • 10:25a, 8/28/24
AG
Anastasia Beaverhaven said:
TxAG#2011 said:
SMCI is a low margin service / construction company. Still wayyyy overvalued.
What should their value be and what is your basis for that valuation?
If there isn't anything that truely differentiates SMCI from it's competitors, then from a fundamentals perspective you need to look at value from a normalized industry P/E or P/S. If you do the math and compare to peers such as Dell or HPE, or other similar OEM's, then you are looking at sub $200/share.
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El_duderino
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In reply to Brewmaster • 10:33a, 8/28/24
I've got $404 and then next support is the $330 gap from Jan 18 to bounce up from.
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CC09LawAg
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10:35a, 8/28/24
You know, the last time it all felt so hopeless was around the beginning of the month, then we almost climbed back up to the ATH.

I'm gonna white knuckle POWL and hope it doesn't hit 160 today. Gonna layer in some more calls if I can get them dirt cheap today.

ETA: In on DELL at 108.80 too. This drop was too good and right at the bottom of the range I had identified.
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