SPX was expected to have a consolidation day with possible retrace before resuming higher. It opened up with a new weekly high on CPI release and then sold into consolidation. If tomorrow opens down, I expect today's consolidation to continue throughout tomorrow with lower probable range between 5330 and 5400. Hourly RSI threw off a sell signal today, but we are ever so slightly long gamma meaning small dips have a decent chance of being bought. A 1% down move to 5400 will flip back to slightly short gamma lessening the potential impact of dip buying on minor dips. This consolidation can extend into Friday's open if we don't make a new weekly high tomorrow. If we do, the lower end of the consolidation range will be raised to 5365 if we have similar action to today where SPX opens to the upside and then sells off. Should the market open and run, I still have multiple high probability targets at 5530 range valid through early September, though next week looks highly likely for the point they get taken out. Once those targets get taken out, I go on high alert that the bounce might be ending, with critical support becoming 5310. I'd be bearish favoring lows below last Monday should SPX drop below that point.

Anyone have trouble with Schwab these last couple days?

No problems here

BlueTaze said:

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Loading CVNA OTM puts out to Jan 25. Looking to retest $110. Will add on fake breakout, or exit on sustained move above $150.

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What's the thought process?

Any thoughts on jpm for a long term hold?

Holding onto WOLF despite steep decline.

Slv

WMT beats and raises, positive econ data today, seems like there's potential for blow off top. Especially if NVDA smashes earnings and guidance

Edit to add manufacturing data wasn't so great from the Philly fed

I guess we are back to markets ripping on the back of fake data...no more inflation...consumer is doing absolutely great...labor force and wage growth are strong...blah blah blah...being gaslit with economic data on a daily basis...

Futures roaring today!!

TNA $40 hit. Nice profits taken.

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Great chart i just found on twitter. I didn't go far enough back with my major support line

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Lost this and still about a quarter shy of filling the 6/11 gap. Guess it's gonna be more pain

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Also peeking below this trendline again

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Exact touch

And now SMCI wants $600...

Heineken-Ashi said:

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SPX was expected to have a consolidation day with possible retrace before resuming higher. It opened up with a new weekly high on CPI release and then sold into consolidation. If tomorrow opens down, I expect today's consolidation to continue throughout tomorrow with lower probable range between 5330 and 5400. Hourly RSI threw off a sell signal today, but we are ever so slightly long gamma meaning small dips have a decent chance of being bought. A 1% down move to 5400 will flip back to slightly short gamma lessening the potential impact of dip buying on minor dips. This consolidation can extend into Friday's open if we don't make a new weekly high tomorrow. If we do, the lower end of the consolidation range will be raised to 5365 if we have similar action to today where SPX opens to the upside and then sells off. Should the market open and run, I still have multiple high probability targets at 5530 range valid through early September, though next week looks highly likely for the point they get taken out. Once those targets get taken out, I go on high alert that the bounce might be ending, with critical support becoming 5310. I'd be bearish favoring lows below last Monday should SPX drop below that point.

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Narrowing in on that 5530 range today it looks like

Yup. No consolidation after all. Three targets acting as a magnet.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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And now SMCI wants $600...

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Bam.

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Looks like $SLV MACD line just crossed the MACD Signal line. HA, is this a signal indicating the SLV run you predicted?

Happygilmore20 said:

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Long time lurker, first time poster.

Looks like $SLV MACD line just crossed the MACD Signal line. HA, is this a signal indicating the SLV run you predicted?

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Yes, it's a standard signal on daily candles. Along with it, hourly 8 and 21 EMA's have crossed the 34 which is more confirmation. You can comfortably set a stop on shares at the recent low and be passively bullish with those signals.

Number Monkey said:

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Thanks for all the wisdom you bring to this board, Heineken. Since I actively started trading a year ago, I've learned a ton about strategy from your posts.

In regards to GDX, I've made about 10% since deploying (yes, I was a little late to the party). Are you expecting it to continue to rise, or should a stop be set to lock in some of those gains? Not sure I'd know where else to deploy the funds, though. Any thoughts are appreciated.

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I think it needs to hold $36 on any pullbacks. Any deeper brings back the potential for $32 to be seen again. But I wouldn't sell under any circumstance. Owning shares of metals is one of the few long term plays (1-2 years) I have active. But if you can't stomach potential wild swings, then I'd probably stop it at $35.50 range

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Talon2DSO said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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E said:

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Just need SLV to turn green and then I'm having a pretty good start to the week

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The next move should be a good one. I grabbed some 8/21 $26 calls yesterday looking to make 2x-4x. Could see just under $25 first though.

$26.50-$28 is my target by week's end. The upper end of that would be the best thing possible, as it would "start" to diminish the lower October target that's been giving me pause.

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Here's that dip under $25.

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Filled a lower target and came a penny away from next lowest. And remember, targets are minimums. $26.60 range is ultimate support right now to get a bounce. Only lower target left is the bearish one with runway through Oct 11, but I think we bounce first. Need a close above $28.80 before October to take bearish potential completely off table. Bought Sep 6 $25 calls looking for just over 2x minimum and maximum at just under 4x.

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These are up 80%. Will be taking half off at 2x

AMD just took out $146. $138-$140 range is firmly support on shares bought over the last 2 weeks. Next target is $151.25 with plenty of time left to hit.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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What a wild month. Glad I bought the dip hard.

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I will say, you seem to have a knack for timing your TNA buys (and sells). That's great!

My TNA puts are now only up 138% (they were up 300%+ a while back), but I'm gonna hold on to them for a bit in case of a pullback.

ASTS all the way up $29.50 after starting the day around $21.50

Nicely done.

TNA has been good to me, that's for sure.

thoughts on this play with CRWD:

I'm looking at starting a long-term position on CRWD and am thinking about selling puts. I can sell the 8/30 $240 P for 6.50 now. it looks like it's formed a good bottom over the last two weeks but earnings are coming up on 8/28 and potentially another decent drop.

Thoughts on the timing of selling the puts so close to earnings or should I just not be as concerned with the timing since I'm looking at this as a long-term hold (more than 5 years)

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Talon2DSO said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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E said:

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Just need SLV to turn green and then I'm having a pretty good start to the week

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The next move should be a good one. I grabbed some 8/21 $26 calls yesterday looking to make 2x-4x. Could see just under $25 first though.

$26.50-$28 is my target by week's end. The upper end of that would be the best thing possible, as it would "start" to diminish the lower October target that's been giving me pause.

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Here's that dip under $25.

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Filled a lower target and came a penny away from next lowest. And remember, targets are minimums. $26.60 range is ultimate support right now to get a bounce. Only lower target left is the bearish one with runway through Oct 11, but I think we bounce first. Need a close above $28.80 before October to take bearish potential completely off table. Bought Sep 6 $25 calls looking for just over 2x minimum and maximum at just under 4x.

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These are up 80%. Will be taking half off at 2x

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Had 225 contracts for the 8/21 $26c. Sold 125 of them and now have 100 dancing on house money.

Great call HA

Talon2DSO said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Talon2DSO said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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E said:

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Just need SLV to turn green and then I'm having a pretty good start to the week

---

The next move should be a good one. I grabbed some 8/21 $26 calls yesterday looking to make 2x-4x. Could see just under $25 first though.

$26.50-$28 is my target by week's end. The upper end of that would be the best thing possible, as it would "start" to diminish the lower October target that's been giving me pause.

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Here's that dip under $25.

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Filled a lower target and came a penny away from next lowest. And remember, targets are minimums. $26.60 range is ultimate support right now to get a bounce. Only lower target left is the bearish one with runway through Oct 11, but I think we bounce first. Need a close above $28.80 before October to take bearish potential completely off table. Bought Sep 6 $25 calls looking for just over 2x minimum and maximum at just under 4x.

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These are up 80%. Will be taking half off at 2x

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Had 225 contracts for the 8/21 $26c. Sold 125 of them and now have 100 dancing on house money.

Great call HA

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