Brian Earl Spilner said:
This feels like another green day. Look for a reversal soon.
Stock Markets
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Last: 6 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
If it keeps bouncing here, it's looking like 2 days in a row I caught the daily bottom.Brian Earl Spilner said:
Bought more TNA at 36.92.
The lowest target on any timeframe (that includes monthly candles and quarterly candles) I have on ALB is $69.59. It's at $72.50 range right now. There are no lower targets, meaning if it went lower, it has nothing but room to run.
I'm watching that area very carefully to see how it reacts. Might enter with a stop immediately below. Remember, this is a long-term play, possibly years. But below that level and I'm going to move to a hard avoid on it.
I'm watching that area very carefully to see how it reacts. Might enter with a stop immediately below. Remember, this is a long-term play, possibly years. But below that level and I'm going to move to a hard avoid on it.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Nice.I bleed maroon said:"We" are holding it, and are comforted by the fact that "we" initiated $200 Nov covered calls back when it was near the peak. We are also pleased that our cost basis is $55.El Chupacabra said:
What are we doing with ARM?
I've never done the refer to yourself in the third person thing, but it's kind of cool. Pretentious as hell, but fun.
Of course, ask us about PYPL, NIO, or WBD, and we don't enjoy this third person thing nearly as much.El Chupacabra said:Nice.I bleed maroon said:"We" are holding it, and are comforted by the fact that "we" initiated $200 Nov covered calls back when it was near the peak. We are also pleased that our cost basis is $55.El Chupacabra said:
What are we doing with ARM?
I've never done the refer to yourself in the third person thing, but it's kind of cool. Pretentious as hell, but fun.
We'd prefer to use "you" for those holdings, but we are where we are...
SMCI is hard to predict.
Thoughts on energy stocks?
Heineken-Ashi said:
The lowest target on any timeframe (that includes monthly candles and quarterly candles) I have on ALB is $69.59. It's at $72.50 range right now. There are no lower targets, meaning if it went lower, it has nothing but room to run.
I'm watching that area very carefully to see how it reacts. Might enter with a stop immediately below. Remember, this is a long-term play, possibly years. But below that level and I'm going to move to a hard avoid on it.
This post triggered me back to when I first bought WWR lol
Our old friend CLOV been on a tear last few days. Forming a nice cup on the weekly timeframe.
I still think $600 happens today, even if just an intraday high.WestTexasAg said:
SMCI is hard to predict.
SPY/SPX trying to decide if they want to reject the 50 Day SMA.
not today amigo. Needs to cool off first.Brian Earl Spilner said:I still think $600 happens today, even if just an intraday high.WestTexasAg said:
SMCI is hard to predict.
You may want to set a stop on your TNA. I sold yesterday AH, premarket rip up looks like a blow off top. S&P went straight up this morning and it barely moved up off it's lows. Close below this triangle and bears will have the ball.
I think that chart is raising it's middle finger in my direction.CheladaAg said:
Our old friend CLOV been on a tear last few days. Forming a nice cup on the weekly timeframe.
Heineken-Ashi said:The next move should be a good one. I grabbed some 8/21 $26 calls yesterday looking to make 2x-4x. Could see just under $25 first though.E said:
Just need SLV to turn green and then I'm having a pretty good start to the week
$26.50-$28 is my target by week's end. The upper end of that would be the best thing possible, as it would "start" to diminish the lower October target that's been giving me pause.
Here's that dip under $25.
Filled a lower target and came a penny away from next lowest. And remember, targets are minimums. $26.60 range is ultimate support right now to get a bounce. Only lower target left is the bearish one with runway through Oct 11, but I think we bounce first. Need a close above $28.80 before October to take bearish potential completely off table. Bought Sep 6 $25 calls looking for just over 2x minimum and maximum at just under 4x.Talon2DSO said:Heineken-Ashi said:The next move should be a good one. I grabbed some 8/21 $26 calls yesterday looking to make 2x-4x. Could see just under $25 first though.E said:
Just need SLV to turn green and then I'm having a pretty good start to the week
$26.50-$28 is my target by week's end. The upper end of that would be the best thing possible, as it would "start" to diminish the lower October target that's been giving me pause.
Here's that dip under $25.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
CheladaAg said:
Our old friend CLOV been on a tear last few days. Forming a nice cup on the weekly timeframe.
Got a $260 check in the mail today for a CLOV lawsuit I don't remember joining. I call it a win!
Why does Gold look so much better than Silver (oz) charting Gold with Silver in the purple line. Gold looks like a nice bull flag higher and Silver looks like it could be a H&S. I guess volatility (silver much more) is one reason.
Silver lags gold in bull markets until it accelerates. It's known to outperform significantly once it goes truly bullish. Gold has made strong moves over the last 6-9 months. Likely going to be more steady eddy going forward a year while Silver plays serious catch up. Alternate would be gold has more potential for a deeper drop while Silver's drop could be more contained and then goes bullish harder afterward.Brewmaster said:
Why does Gold look so much better than Silver (oz) charting Gold with Silver in the purple line. Gold looks like a nice bull flag higher and Silver looks like it could be a H&S. I guess volatility (silver much more) is one reason.
Metals miners, especially gold miners, also lag spot gold.. until they play catchup too.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Mailbox money is best money. Whatever you do, don't put it back into CLOVa07nathanb said:CheladaAg said:
Our old friend CLOV been on a tear last few days. Forming a nice cup on the weekly timeframe.
Got a $260 check in the mail today for a CLOV lawsuit I don't remember joining. I call it a win!
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Adjusted stop on this just before the open to $136.50. I have short timeframe lower targets than that, as low as $130 even, but $136.50 is the lowest I will let it go to shake me out. Still looking for $146 and will likely take full profits if it hits.Heineken-Ashi said:
AMD off and running. Stop moved up to $138. Bottom of target range reached at $140. Next target $146 but might see some minor resistance at $143.50. Stop hit means this pattern off the low is not impulsive and more likely to be choppy or to even fail, so willing to get stopped out and put money to better use.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
My sell at $40 missed in pre by $0.28.
But, I do think it hits $40 before the end of the week. And got another buy set at $35.50 just in case.
I'd hold for now unless it fell below $34 again.
But, I do think it hits $40 before the end of the week. And got another buy set at $35.50 just in case.
I'd hold for now unless it fell below $34 again.
MM's just forced a bottom in SLV by buying shares to hedge this to keep their position neutral. Some serious volume.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Making sure I'm reading this right. These are call volumes for $26 for next week?Heineken-Ashi said:
MM's just forced a bottom in SLV by buying shares to hedge this to keep their position neutral. Some serious volume.
Yesfauxstradamus said:Making sure I'm reading this right. These are call volumes for $26 for next week?Heineken-Ashi said:
MM's just forced a bottom in SLV by buying shares to hedge this to keep their position neutral. Some serious volume.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
thank you sir, great stuff!
it keeps holding trend line, may get to 40 soon. Nice gap to fill at 42 ish too.
Heineken-Ashi said:
MM's just forced a bottom in SLV by buying shares to hedge this to keep their position neutral. Some serious volume.
This is a good thing....right?
Not In This Market: Where We Went Wrong With Super Micro Computer - Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) - Benzinga
Earnings options are the toughest and most inconsistent trades out there. I only play them when fundamentals AND technicals provide me very clear direction in the form of multiple targets AND the options pricing can get me at least a 2x if target is hit on the minute of expiration. If there's any mixture of chances up vs down, avoid.
Honest analysis from a group that made a horrible bet that didn't work out. But what they fail to mention is that they also bought those options at incredibly elevated volatility levels which juice the prices. Even if they had been right, the options of winning were slimmer than they thought when you consider the volatility decay that comes just days after an earnings release. Not only did they need to be right on the strike and date as they claim, but they needed to be right on the price by an even greater amount to account for the volatility decay.Quote:
Lessons We Can Draw From This
The first thing to note is that if you trade options, you're going to be wrong a lot no matter what you do. It's harder to be right with options than stocks because options expire, so you need to be right by specific date. If we had simply bought shares of SMCI on Monday, we'd be down now, but 6 months or a year from now, we'd have a good chance of being up on the trade. With the option trade we placed on Monday, we needed to be right by Friday's close, and that looks extremely unlikely at this point.
Earnings options are the toughest and most inconsistent trades out there. I only play them when fundamentals AND technicals provide me very clear direction in the form of multiple targets AND the options pricing can get me at least a 2x if target is hit on the minute of expiration. If there's any mixture of chances up vs down, avoid.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Loading CVNA OTM puts out to Jan 25. Looking to retest $110. Will add on fake breakout, or exit on sustained move above $150.
Not a terribly exciting day for SMCI, but I'll take three straight green days.
These candles though.
I got gotted with CLOV too. I hope I get some mailbox money!a07nathanb said:CheladaAg said:
Our old friend CLOV been on a tear last few days. Forming a nice cup on the weekly timeframe.
Got a $260 check in the mail today for a CLOV lawsuit I don't remember joining. I call it a win!
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Charismatic Megafauna said:WestTexasAg said:
CRWD recovery continues.
I'm buying puts for earnings (9/6 exp, er is 9/4)
I bought a couple too early then drew some lines and decided i should buy more at 258, which hit today and i didn't notice until just now. Hopefully i get an entry tomorrow
I'd like to see more volume in a continued push upwards. It's been declining the last 3 days as SMCI has been rising. Likely to pick up around NVDA/AVGO earnings and then into/post split. It is breaking out of the weekly downtrend though so that's a positive sign
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Heineken-Ashi said:
But what they fail to mention is that they also bought those options at incredibly elevated volatility levels which juice the prices. Even if they had been right, the options of winning were slimmer than they thought when you consider the volatility decay that comes just days after an earnings release. Not only did they need to be right on the strike and date as they claim, but they needed to be right on the price by an even greater amount to account for the volatility decay.
This is the tough thing about options. It's why you need to have predefined exit strategies, take profits, and control your risk. That's tough when my heart tells me to push all my chips in and say 'GFY market!'
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