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Agsrback12
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 6:08p, 8/8/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
If the low is in, SMCI should have a 1-3 month move back to between $675 and $900 range. But I expect it to be corrective, meaning that next top would lead to an even more significant move down. That's the base case. Things can change of course.


What do you estimate the possible next top would be?
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fauxstradamus
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 6:55p, 8/8/24
AG
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Up to $14k profits this year from TNA / TQQQ. Haven't taken a single loss. My average trade has been +8.56%.

I know it's not exactly impressive considering the insane rally we've been on, but sure feels nice after how bad a year I had last year. (Thanks BOIL...) And the consistency has been nice.


Awesome! Keep up with posting your plays. Great for everyone. Plus the T&A pics are great. I searched for hot chick gif to respond and this is what i got….

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Bocephus
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7:25p, 8/8/24
AG
Bought more $SNAP at 8.35 today
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
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WestTexasAg
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In reply to Chef Elko • 8:20p, 8/8/24
AG
Chef Elko said:
I added more BROS this morning
Me too.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Agsrback12 • 10:10p, 8/8/24
Agsrback12 said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
If the low is in, SMCI should have a 1-3 month move back to between $675 and $900 range. But I expect it to be corrective, meaning that next top would lead to an even more significant move down. That's the base case. Things can change of course.


What do you estimate the possible next top would be?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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11:10p, 8/8/24
Ok, who wants to Friday swing trade NVDA?

Here's what we're looking for..

1. Pre market to test $99 to $103 range. I'll give it through the first hour of trading.
2a. If it does not but goes sideways or up through 10:00 central time, likely no trade.
2b. If it does, enter above $99.25 on signs of a bottom being in with stop just below the low. A break below $99 means no trade.
3. Once it breaks through Thursday high / pre-market high, move stop up to that point.
4. Once above $107 (if pre-market high never reached that level) move stop to there.
5. Target for sell by end of day would be $110-$111 range. Outside chance it sees $113-$115 level.

$7-$10.75 profit potential per share on minimal risk if executed with plan.

Again, this is a contingent setup. If it doesn't play out as expected, we don't trade.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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EliteZags
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11:34p, 8/8/24
AG
didn't expect to counter punch for punch with my 2 biggest down days ever within a week later


(actually 30K+ since Empower doesn't update my biggest 401K balance til day after)
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 8:10a, 8/9/24
Lower bound for trigger zone moved overnight to $98.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 8:29a, 8/9/24
I plan to enter if we get $102's with stop at $98 and target $110.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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gougler08
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8:44a, 8/9/24
AG
PLTR hitting resistance above 29 again, I've set a stop at 29.25 (which would mean low of the day) and if triggered will look to re-enter on a dip
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:09a, 8/9/24
Ideally one more little dip in NVDA, but if we don't get it by 9:30 then it's possible I just missed it. Any trigger after that extends the play into Monday and with this still being a short gamma regime in the markets I don't want to hold over the weekend. So let's see what happens next 20 minutes.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:22a, 8/9/24
ALB - Could see it getting as low as $65, but we're getting into RIDICULOUS R/R territory here. I'm probably jumping in soon but want more signs that a bottom is in.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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WestTexasAg
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9:31a, 8/9/24
AG
SAVA in free fall.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:35a, 8/9/24
NVDA still has a chance to get the morning low we were looking for, but at this point, it looks like they are going to try to pin to $105-$110 range today with an outside shot of $100. I'm just not sure the daily R/R is worth the squeeze here, and like I said, this is not an environment where I'm willing to hold highly volatile stocks over the weekend. I can't recommend the trade. Doesn't mean it won't work out. Just that I didn't get the rubber band daily action I was looking for.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to gougler08 • 9:47a, 8/9/24
29.35 looking like decent short term support
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Brian Earl Spilner
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10:03a, 8/9/24
AG
Bought 2 more SMCI at 495 with my TNA proceeds.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to fauxstradamus • 10:08a, 8/9/24
AG
Thanks man.

Here's hoping TNA can bounce to 40.

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Heineken-Ashi
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11:02a, 8/9/24
No trades today. First boring Friday in a while. Market stays short gamma. Next week should be the tell on if we roll farther down or not.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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hedge
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 11:25a, 8/9/24
This has become my favorite post on here
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Ags2013
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11:29a, 8/9/24
AG
PLTR over 30
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Ags2013 • 11:47a, 8/9/24
Ags2013 said:
PLTR over 30


Blue line is gap fill. Can use the yellow line as support. Once yellow breaks, it's likely time for a lengthy consolidation between $10 and $20.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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11:58a, 8/9/24
DIS - I don't think the low is in, but it shouldn't be too far below. I've got $80 range if it drops further. Below $78 and I have no lower targets meaning it has no support to ping off of and no target for a low.. so it can drop as low as it wants. As long as it holds that bottom and preferably $80, I have upper targets next week of $90-$93 range and 1-2 month targets of $96-$105, and that area becomes strong resistance. Through middle of next year I have $140-$160, but a drop below $81 that bottoms above $78 would drop the lower end of that to $120,
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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E
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In reply to Ags2013 • 12:27p, 8/9/24
AG
Ags2013 said:
PLTR over 30


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Heineken-Ashi
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12:37p, 8/9/24
Bought some CAVA Sep $75 puts. Probably a bit early as it can attack mid $93's. I will average down if it does. Premium paid is your risk. Stop would be a new high and premium would be crushed by then. Only enter if you can stomach the risk.

Target is $65-$70 by mid September.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Heineken-Ashi
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1:58p, 8/9/24
Do yall see now why the NVDA trigger was important? Why I didn't trade if it didn't hit? When lower targets get taken out and leave nothing but higher targets available, it's like a magnet. But when those lower targets go unprinted, or stay on the table, the stock likely stays range bound until it decides. The goal is high probability trades, and this only became one today with an early morning print below $103.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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bmoochie
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2:31p, 8/9/24
AG
Since its a slow thread day I will repost here. It's in the long term thread if anyone is interesting diving in. First post a few days ago, 2nd one just now.


I know I have mentioned TELL in the past but I have another LNG stock I think I will start building a position in soon. Next Decade, ticker NEXT. Stock plunged 35% after administration halted their train 4 plans for expansion in rio grande facility. I believe it will find a bottom soon and be on a discount. They are continuing with T1-T3 construction since all of that was already approved.

i think it will be in a good spot to build a solid position in and try and get netfree if we get a new administration next year. Odds are new expansion would be approved and stock would rebound significantly.

Obviously LNG and CQP are the bread winners but those are more pricey at this point. There is still expansion plans for LNG (Sabine Pass facility) but I don't have a timeline on that yet.


Ok here is my Opinion on NEXT for Bird Poo and any others. Still room down the $4.32 range. From there I think we do get a small bounce as that is a pretty strong level dating back to 2018. Potential to swing trade it and maybe squeak out some netfree shares as a bounce takes us back up to $5.28 level. Almost $1 move but it could take 6 months for a recovery there.

Lose the $4.32 level and I have $3.21 and then $2.09.

we are definitely in oversold Territory on RSI but MACD still turning and there is zero reason to catch a falling knife on this one. I do want to watch what it does at $4.32 as that is where I could see the first attempt at a bottom.

As I have stated before, I am a believer in anything in the LNG space and wish I was as in to the stock market 4 years ago when I started dealing with this market and could have gotten Cheniere at low levels. NEXT is cheap and is/would be LONG term. But it's at the ground floor, similar to TELL. I just don't know the future of TELL with that acquisition now.
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cena05
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In reply to bmoochie • 2:36p, 8/9/24
AG
Have you been following TRGP the last 6 months?
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Dan Scott
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2:36p, 8/9/24
AG
Market is going to close with a positive week after all the chaos on Monday. lol
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Dan Scott
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In reply to bmoochie • 2:38p, 8/9/24
AG
I believe it. LNG is booming. LNG tanker construction is booming. LNG as fuel for vessels is growing.
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bmoochie
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In reply to cena05 • 2:40p, 8/9/24
AG
Negative but looks like its on a hell of a run this year. They seem to be way more robust then just the LNG terminal space of manufacturing and shipping overseas.
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bhanacik
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2:43p, 8/9/24
AG
can't recall who brought it up but I placed an alert on SIG at 75 that went off this week. Looks to have some additional room down to at least 70, but I'm going to be watching.
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bmoochie
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In reply to Dan Scott • 2:44p, 8/9/24
AG
Dan Scott said:
I believe it. LNG is booming. LNG tanker construction is booming. LNG as fuel for vessels is growing.
to me, it's all about the terminals and being able to export which is why I want to try and find the next "Cheniere" at a ground floor level. it's a race at this point and they are god tier so just trying to locate the next one.

Cameron LNG is my other LNG customer but they are a joint Venture and owned by Sempra and Mitsubishi group. So you can't relay on them to move Sempra stock if that makes sense. Which is why I would like the ones that are strictly LNG only tickers.
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Heineken-Ashi
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2:47p, 8/9/24
CLSK releasing earnings after close. Be prepare for a drop. If you get a chance at $7's after hours, I'd but with stop below $5. Otherwise wait for Monday.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Talon2DSO
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In reply to Dan Scott • 2:52p, 8/9/24
AG
Dan Scott said:
I believe it. LNG is booming. LNG tanker construction is booming. LNG as fuel for vessels is growing.


Is it? The Circuit Court just halted LNG plants at the Port of Brownsville. Those were going to be life-changing for people in that part of South Texas.

The Biden Admin won't get these project going and neither will Harris. I think LNG is going to face headwinds real soon.
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bmoochie
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In reply to Talon2DSO • 2:58p, 8/9/24
AG
Talon2DSO said:
Dan Scott said:
I believe it. LNG is booming. LNG tanker construction is booming. LNG as fuel for vessels is growing.


Is it? The Circuit Court just halted LNG plants at the Port of Brownsville. Those were going to be life-changing for people in that part of South Texas.

The Biden Admin won't get these project going and neither will Harris. I think LNG is going to face headwinds real soon.


I mentioned this above in regards to NEXT. The only headwinds will be for companies that are trying to build and don't approval. The ones that are currently operational or currently building will not be affected as those permits have already been signed on and approved. It's the new ones and expansion projects.

New admin fixes it for everyone. If it's the same ol same ol then I could agree, the players already out there will see even more growth as their competition has essentially been neutered. Just my opinion.
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