here comes the afternoon meltup...crushing the bears souls yet again...
Stock Markets
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Last: 4 hrs ago by flashplayer
Only people getting crushed are very short term bears looking for immediate large drops.EnronAg said:
here comes the afternoon meltup...crushing the bears souls yet again...
This market is acting exactly the same way it did in early 2020, mid 2007. The main clue is actually in the Russell. The SPX is making new highs on extremely overbought readings and declining indicators. At the same time, the Russell is melting down. This is exactly what happened from 2018 to 2020.
While it's fun to enjoy the melt up chasing maybe 5% in market upside. I think it will be the "buy the dip" and "dollar cost average" bulls who will ultimately get crushed. Because even though the bears might have lost a little trying to time the reversal, they are also mostly in a cash position and have very little to lose. The bulls are fully invested in this thing. They will buy the dips until market sentiment reaches such a negative level that they cant take it anymore. At that point they will sell into the hands of the people who have been sitting on cash waiting for them.
And if the bulls end up right and we never get a selloff, guess what? The bears didn't lose much and have plenty of cash to participate should they jump in.
One side has flexibility. The other doesn't. One side can make money no matter what happens. The other side is so invested in their perceived direction that they have zero options should they be wrong.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
well I have enjoyed chasing the maybe 5%, for the past 15%
Would it not be valid to point out that 2020 brought a black swan event that disrupted the global supply chain for a period of years and think that maybe that specific instance could be unrelated to our current situation?
I am not necessarily bullish on anything in the short term but I struggle to put much faith in any comparisons to 2020.
The 2007 one I could see being more applicable
I am not necessarily bullish on anything in the short term but I struggle to put much faith in any comparisons to 2020.
The 2007 one I could see being more applicable
I'm just glad $SHOP finally broke stride and stopped rubbing it in my face. I left like $.70 on the table.
Every time is different, and the market/puppet masters learn and build preventative measures for that issue in the future. It's generally something we don't expect that surprises (Yogi, I think).
2007 liar loans, duplicitous collateralized/reinsured loans/bank contagion/public vs private credit...world looks different there. Hard to say this is the same.
Gotta go back to the 1950s or 1970s interest rate/inflation cycles...but even then - the makeup of our economy is different (tech vs post war boom/industrial) as is our demographic.
Hard to say "look what happened to the nifty fifty" as a rhyme to megacap tech...the recent winners are the ones most likely to benefit in big ways from AI. Whats to say they won't keep winning other than "value, small caps, and international is due"?
2007 liar loans, duplicitous collateralized/reinsured loans/bank contagion/public vs private credit...world looks different there. Hard to say this is the same.
Gotta go back to the 1950s or 1970s interest rate/inflation cycles...but even then - the makeup of our economy is different (tech vs post war boom/industrial) as is our demographic.
Hard to say "look what happened to the nifty fifty" as a rhyme to megacap tech...the recent winners are the ones most likely to benefit in big ways from AI. Whats to say they won't keep winning other than "value, small caps, and international is due"?
Sentiment is sentiment. Events are merely catalysts. You can't predict the catalyst, but you can know when risk is extremely elevated and lessen your exposure.flashplayer said:
Would it not be valid to point out that 2020 brought a black swan event that disrupted the global supply chain for a period of years and think that maybe that specific instance could be unrelated to our current situation?
I am not necessarily bullish on anything in the short term but I struggle to put much faith in any comparisons to 2020.
The 2007 one I could see being more applicable
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
You gotta factor in opportunity cost for the bears though. Combined with high inflation, they're not losing nothing.
You willed that man some money you dumbass. Right on the 11am dot too lolMcInnis 03 said:
my read on silver is that it does it's move over night with a little bit of tiddlywinks until 11am. After that it's typically pretty boring.
"And if the bulls end up right and we never get a selloff, guess what? The bears didn't lose much and have plenty of cash to participate should they jump in."
Other than the 5%…10%….15%…? gains lost right? Not seeing how that puts bears in a better (or even) spot.
Other than the 5%…10%….15%…? gains lost right? Not seeing how that puts bears in a better (or even) spot.
Sure. But it's a risk/reward thing. If I can jump back on the bull at any time, only thing I lost is like what Spilner said, the opportunity cost of not making money. But most bears won't merely be sitting on a pile of cash. That's why bond yields haven't rocketed. People are moving large chunks of cash to short term safety and still earning on it. Worst case scenario for bears is that the bulls make 5-10% total return more than the bears.MAS444 said:
"And if the bulls end up right and we never get a selloff, guess what? The bears didn't lose much and have plenty of cash to participate should they jump in."
Other than the 5%…10%….15%…? gains lost right? Not seeing how that puts bears in a better (or even) spot.
But in the case that we do have a selloff, what's the worst case for the bulls?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
GME - no fireworks today. Total loss on small trade.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
hi ho silver! I was a couple days early on the lottos, but rest of my SLV moving on up!
KVUE was stopped out. Sorry it didn't work. Gave a bullish signal and the only reason I advised it was because of the really really low risk. Minimal loss. But MACD never turned up and it just kept declining. Throw it away and move on. This is why I focus on R/R. Lose pennies, but let the winners gain $$.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
If BLDE keeps right around $3 but stagnates for another month, does that change your prospectus for November calls?
It would have to get through earnings with no action.flashplayer said:
If BLDE keeps right around $3 but stagnates for another month, does that change your prospectus for November calls?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Any insights on the HUMA big drop AH? Couldn't find any info. I know the drop a week or so ago seemed to correlate with the COO divesting all her shares. Starting to worry about some bad FDA news behind the scenes
fauxstradamus said:
Any insights on the HUMA big drop AH? Couldn't find any info. I know the drop a week or so ago seemed to correlate with the COO divesting all her shares. Starting to worry about some bad FDA news behind the scenes
Tubberville sold all of his.
He had already sold a good chunk of it a few weeks ago. The insider activity is a little unsettling but only one of them has unloaded the boat, the rest of them are still holding most their shares. If another executive unloads the boat I will abandon ship along with probably just about everyone else.
You would think Tubberville has an ear to the ground with the FDA, but it's not like he bought millions worth of HUMA either. He was taking his nice extra base hit on smaller money for him. It's not like he made a Pelosi size play on it.
That said, the big push down after hours was on less than $1 million worth of shares and it only ended up 5% lower after recovering from that. HUMA is a volatile stock so that's not necessarily a huge move the way this thing ebbs and flows daily. HUMA is purely speculative as they are a ways off from a profit.
It's definitely a gamble on FDA approval. That alone is going to tank this stock or shoot it into the sky.
You would think Tubberville has an ear to the ground with the FDA, but it's not like he bought millions worth of HUMA either. He was taking his nice extra base hit on smaller money for him. It's not like he made a Pelosi size play on it.
That said, the big push down after hours was on less than $1 million worth of shares and it only ended up 5% lower after recovering from that. HUMA is a volatile stock so that's not necessarily a huge move the way this thing ebbs and flows daily. HUMA is purely speculative as they are a ways off from a profit.
It's definitely a gamble on FDA approval. That alone is going to tank this stock or shoot it into the sky.
Happy Father's day, Gents! Hope you each have a blessed day
ES opening up with a 65pt gap up
El_duderino said:
ES opening up with a 65pt gap up
Not seeing this. Contracts might have rolled to the Sept futures since June futures set to expire soon.
Whoops. Yes you're correct. June futures expire this Friday
Drove home from Cstat today and judging by the lines I saw at about 8-10 BROS locations..... they're probably buy and holds.
My goodness. Every single one, lines forever.
My goodness. Every single one, lines forever.
I have no idea why, but that's the truth. It's always jam packed regardless of the time of day, day of the week, or the weather in college station
They are popping up everywhere in Houston. Need to give it a try but I've heard it's good
Went to a Bros wanting a cup of coffee and was asked if I was more of a Starbucks person.
El_duderino said:
I have no idea why, but that's the truth. It's always jam packed regardless of the time of day, day of the week, or the weather in college station
Cuz their coffee is better than Starbucks
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
What is their tik tok following and are their influencer pushing it?
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
"What flavor? "
"Coffee flavor"
"Coffee flavor"
TDKY might be one to keep an eye on if they can successfully produce/commercialize this ceramic solid state electronics battery. Not sure what exchange it trades on though (Japanese company, might be Tokyo?)
BTW, I wanna buy stock in the company that developed the LED wristband at the Strait concert only because that was some of the coolest technology!
I think its PixMob. My wife said these were used at Taylor Swift and seem to be gaining popularity for the fan experience.McInnis 03 said:
BTW, I wanna buy stock in the company that developed the LED wristband at the Strait concert only because that was some of the coolest technology!
I thought it was super cool too and definitely added to the aura of Saturday. What an event!
That's it, you nailed it. Nice. So they either run on Infrared or waveband, I was curious how they were executing so precisely.
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