Loved my class with Shaub back in the day. He was a great fit for A&M and ideally his influence will play a large role in helping Aggies live up the code of honor for decades to come. Sad to see him retire but happy for himETX_Ag_22_24 said:
Dr. Shaub would have eaten this up. Announced his retirement a couple of days ago! His ethics class was amazing
Stock Markets
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Last: 15 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
I'll bet you dollars to donuts "they" can kick that can for another 6 months and pull off any number of mini ponzi schemes along the wayHeineken-Ashi said:No, because what they did in 2008 was unprecedented. From another Daniel Amerman article..bhanacik said:I guess this is my point - don't you think people had similar thoughts back in 2007, 2019, and 2022 saying the exact same things prior to the FED changing the rules?Heineken-Ashi said:There's not much the people can do. They gave away control of the currency in 1913. So when the FED expanded its power to manipulate in 2008, and then again in 2020, and THEN AGAIN in 2023, the only thing we could do was shake out heads. The politicians don't have a clue how it all works. And when the FED comes in and says "we are doing this TO SAVE YOU", 90% of the population says "ok, thanks!". Why? Because we're fat and happy from decades of free money fake prosperity, and objecting to the FED would mean objecting to your own false sense of prosperity.bhanacik said:
I read it, thanks for posting.
It was enlightening and a bit over my head, but it was still a worthwhile read. It seemed very well researched.
One thought that I had while reading was it will be interesting to see how this all plays out 1-2 years from now. I got the feeling from the article that we can just continually kick the can down the road by essentially continuing to change the rules. I'm not sure if that's good or bad.
I also thought, "were there any similar articles like this back several decades ago"? I'm assuming there were and if so, why didn't the majority of people act more proactively to avoid the big downticks. Maybe it's just a testament to people not being educated on the markets and how our government thinks about policy decisions, and the population just blindly DCA's into their 401k's thinking everything will be ok long-term.
And no, they can't kick the can forever. They can try, but the FED is not the market and cannot control markets. Go back and read my highlighted quote from the article again. When the secondary market refuses to buy our debt except at higher returns (higher bond yields), the FED will have lost control, rates will spiral upward, the stock market will crash.
If there's nothing we can do but shake our heads and we have no choices other than to keep playing the game or just sit it out; it seems the better financial decision would have been to keep playing the game (keep investing $$ into the market)Quote:
There has been a mass illusion of the Fed printing money without limits. The objective facts can be seen by looking at - and more importantly, actually understanding - the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. The fact is that money printing is only of four core sources of spending power for the Fed, and it was only the third most important source of funds in 2021.Quote:
Quote:
The objective facts are that the Fed bought $3.7 trillion in new assets by taking out $3.7 trillion in new debts. The Fed borrows the money to spend the money. Any beliefs that state otherwise, are opinions that are not based on the facts.Quote:
Quote:
While few people realize it to this day, the primary funding for the Federal Reserve radically changed in 2008 when emergency legislation brought forward the effective date of the Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act of 2006.
The global banking system was teetering on the brink of collapse, and neither the government nor the Fed had the money to rescue them - so the U.S. government changed the law, to give the Federal Reserve unprecedented back door access to the U.S. banking system and the spending power of our bank accounts.
This new back door access allowed the Fed to quickly grab almost $800 billion from the nation's banks - that are funded by our deposits - and to use that money to rescue the global banking system. If the Fed had not had access to the spending power of our banking system - the system would have collapsed, there were no "strong banks" in practice. This is critical information to keep in mind if there is another major crisis in the banking system.
It was this back door access that was the source of funds for the quantitative easings, as the Fed used its new trillions in spending power to fund the growth in the national debt while taking unprecedented control of interest rates. It was our bank accounts that were the source of funds that the government used to shower the country with stimulus checks, sending us back our own money in redistributed form.And now the chickens are starting to come home to roost. It's way too late to do anything about it, as pointed out in the first article. The only thing they can do is continue to borrow money to pay off previously borrowed money. And the sources to borrow from are drying up which means borrowers are going to increasingly demand higher rates. 2008 recovered BECAUSE they didn't print money. The taxpayer was completely oblivious that their money was stolen and then loaned back to them (well, not them.. mostly the more wealthy class who got rich off of it). They are oblivious today that the only way 2023 wasn't the start of the collapse was because of a new backdoor, BTFP, which had the Fed borrowing money, that they had previously loaned to banks, and paying banks higher interest than the what the banks were paying them. One giant circle of life that used newly borrowed money to inject cash into banks at a time when banks were about to crumble.Quote:
Quote:
The money printing did occur. But it was relatively minor when compared to the raid on our bank accounts. So, the idea that it is all money printing is a myth. Indeed, it is a convenient myth for the Federal Reserve and U.S. government. So long as people mistakenly think it is all money printing, then they don't think to look elsewhere for the real source, which is the massive back door emptying of the spending power in our bank accounts.
Can they concoct some new ponzi scheme to kick the can? Sure? But it's not going to stop things from deteriorating. and the pace of deterioration will continue to exponentially grow., lessening the time between events where they have to pull of new version of miracle rescues. But again, their balance sheet is screwed where it wasn't before. And if they drop rates, it will be the first time they have dropped when bond rates didn't drop first. You can welcome in hyperinflation in that case.
How about I just buy you a beer a month before election and we watch the fireworks.EnronAg said:I'll bet you dollars to donuts "they" can kick that can for another 6 months and pull off any number of mini ponzi schemes along the wayHeineken-Ashi said:No, because what they did in 2008 was unprecedented. From another Daniel Amerman article..bhanacik said:I guess this is my point - don't you think people had similar thoughts back in 2007, 2019, and 2022 saying the exact same things prior to the FED changing the rules?Heineken-Ashi said:There's not much the people can do. They gave away control of the currency in 1913. So when the FED expanded its power to manipulate in 2008, and then again in 2020, and THEN AGAIN in 2023, the only thing we could do was shake out heads. The politicians don't have a clue how it all works. And when the FED comes in and says "we are doing this TO SAVE YOU", 90% of the population says "ok, thanks!". Why? Because we're fat and happy from decades of free money fake prosperity, and objecting to the FED would mean objecting to your own false sense of prosperity.bhanacik said:
I read it, thanks for posting.
It was enlightening and a bit over my head, but it was still a worthwhile read. It seemed very well researched.
One thought that I had while reading was it will be interesting to see how this all plays out 1-2 years from now. I got the feeling from the article that we can just continually kick the can down the road by essentially continuing to change the rules. I'm not sure if that's good or bad.
I also thought, "were there any similar articles like this back several decades ago"? I'm assuming there were and if so, why didn't the majority of people act more proactively to avoid the big downticks. Maybe it's just a testament to people not being educated on the markets and how our government thinks about policy decisions, and the population just blindly DCA's into their 401k's thinking everything will be ok long-term.
And no, they can't kick the can forever. They can try, but the FED is not the market and cannot control markets. Go back and read my highlighted quote from the article again. When the secondary market refuses to buy our debt except at higher returns (higher bond yields), the FED will have lost control, rates will spiral upward, the stock market will crash.
If there's nothing we can do but shake our heads and we have no choices other than to keep playing the game or just sit it out; it seems the better financial decision would have been to keep playing the game (keep investing $$ into the market)Quote:
There has been a mass illusion of the Fed printing money without limits. The objective facts can be seen by looking at - and more importantly, actually understanding - the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. The fact is that money printing is only of four core sources of spending power for the Fed, and it was only the third most important source of funds in 2021.Quote:
Quote:
The objective facts are that the Fed bought $3.7 trillion in new assets by taking out $3.7 trillion in new debts. The Fed borrows the money to spend the money. Any beliefs that state otherwise, are opinions that are not based on the facts.Quote:
Quote:
While few people realize it to this day, the primary funding for the Federal Reserve radically changed in 2008 when emergency legislation brought forward the effective date of the Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act of 2006.
The global banking system was teetering on the brink of collapse, and neither the government nor the Fed had the money to rescue them - so the U.S. government changed the law, to give the Federal Reserve unprecedented back door access to the U.S. banking system and the spending power of our bank accounts.
This new back door access allowed the Fed to quickly grab almost $800 billion from the nation's banks - that are funded by our deposits - and to use that money to rescue the global banking system. If the Fed had not had access to the spending power of our banking system - the system would have collapsed, there were no "strong banks" in practice. This is critical information to keep in mind if there is another major crisis in the banking system.
It was this back door access that was the source of funds for the quantitative easings, as the Fed used its new trillions in spending power to fund the growth in the national debt while taking unprecedented control of interest rates. It was our bank accounts that were the source of funds that the government used to shower the country with stimulus checks, sending us back our own money in redistributed form.And now the chickens are starting to come home to roost. It's way too late to do anything about it, as pointed out in the first article. The only thing they can do is continue to borrow money to pay off previously borrowed money. And the sources to borrow from are drying up which means borrowers are going to increasingly demand higher rates. 2008 recovered BECAUSE they didn't print money. The taxpayer was completely oblivious that their money was stolen and then loaned back to them (well, not them.. mostly the more wealthy class who got rich off of it). They are oblivious today that the only way 2023 wasn't the start of the collapse was because of a new backdoor, BTFP, which had the Fed borrowing money, that they had previously loaned to banks, and paying banks higher interest than the what the banks were paying them. One giant circle of life that used newly borrowed money to inject cash into banks at a time when banks were about to crumble.Quote:
Quote:
The money printing did occur. But it was relatively minor when compared to the raid on our bank accounts. So, the idea that it is all money printing is a myth. Indeed, it is a convenient myth for the Federal Reserve and U.S. government. So long as people mistakenly think it is all money printing, then they don't think to look elsewhere for the real source, which is the massive back door emptying of the spending power in our bank accounts.
Can they concoct some new ponzi scheme to kick the can? Sure? But it's not going to stop things from deteriorating. and the pace of deterioration will continue to exponentially grow., lessening the time between events where they have to pull of new version of miracle rescues. But again, their balance sheet is screwed where it wasn't before. And if they drop rates, it will be the first time they have dropped when bond rates didn't drop first. You can welcome in hyperinflation in that case.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Only down single digits today! Basically like making money!South Platte said:
Sheesh. FSLY murdered AH.
Let's see SPY bust through 511.50 here!
MARA, CLSK, and CORZ all report next week. If the BTC bottom is in, would it be better to buy shares pre/post earnings?
Just buy 25-50% of what you would want now, buy more if they come down, filling out the whole position. That way you are in if the bottom is in, but not screwed if they lose 25% of their value.ETX_Ag_22_24 said:
MARA, CLSK, and CORZ all report next week. If the BTC bottom is in, would it be better to buy shares pre/post earnings?
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Anyone here wagering on the Kentucky Derby this weekend? Not sure if there even is a thread on it
The last few years have been crazy in terms of long shots.
This guy!
For real! Country House and Rich Strike were wild wins, Mage lesser so but still I think over 15-1 odds. Won a little bit off Mage last year, I generally put a good amount to show on a dark horse and Mage was it last year. Couldn't cover all my trifecta losses though lol
Betting on the Triple Crown races is never something I do. Same way it's hard to bet on Maiden races. More power to you because I could never be that lucky.
Boy Named Sue said:
Let's see SPY bust through 511.50 here!
Hey it got through. Now let's see a NHOD and maybe I can break even on the day!
Just f'ing with you man. I'm in SPY puts but I bought time so make your paper for the next time you're found in contempt of court.
Anyone familiar with VST?
I own some but honestly don't understand the rally over the past year
What am I missing ?
I own some but honestly don't understand the rally over the past year
What am I missing ?
You are correct. The market is still in the beginning stages of accepting this - shown in the performance of TLT since the spike high of March 2020.
The fundamental shift of the worldly accepted "safe haven asset" no longer being USTs will indeed take longer before the average Joe acknowledges it as reality.
The FED is not going to protect you. The government is not going to protect you. And although I will be voting for Trump in this election, he is not going to protect you either. It is your job to be looking ahead & taking care of your family. Pay no attention to the circus and secure non debt monies (gold & btc). (You can actually see a Ray dalio blog from a couple weeks ago saying this exactly)
Makes me think of a Naval Ravikant tweet from 2020
" The road to socialism via inflation:
Print money, crash the reserve currency, destroy savers, and force them into inflated assets.
Asset inflation leads to inequality. Demonize asset holders and tax the nominal gains, thereby confiscating the real value of the assets."
Gee, has any of this played out over the past 4 years?
The fundamental shift of the worldly accepted "safe haven asset" no longer being USTs will indeed take longer before the average Joe acknowledges it as reality.
The FED is not going to protect you. The government is not going to protect you. And although I will be voting for Trump in this election, he is not going to protect you either. It is your job to be looking ahead & taking care of your family. Pay no attention to the circus and secure non debt monies (gold & btc). (You can actually see a Ray dalio blog from a couple weeks ago saying this exactly)
Makes me think of a Naval Ravikant tweet from 2020
" The road to socialism via inflation:
Print money, crash the reserve currency, destroy savers, and force them into inflated assets.
Asset inflation leads to inequality. Demonize asset holders and tax the nominal gains, thereby confiscating the real value of the assets."
Gee, has any of this played out over the past 4 years?
Theta is eating me alive right now. I need a quick pop above 512 so I can sell out and then let it collapse for your puts!
I just feel like if this was all true why would the government allow Bitcoin etfs and allow cryptocurrencies to be more accessible to older folks/those who have amassed a large amount of assets?
OK so my SMCI losses went from like -17% to -8% . So should I cut and run now?
7nine
Texaggie7nine said:
OK so my SMCI losses went from like -17% to -8% . So should I cut and run now?
Only if you hate money.
Because the wealthy class wanted access to the constant 401k money to profit off the speculation in BTC.Chef Elko said:
I just feel like if this was all true why would the government allow Bitcoin etfs and allow cryptocurrencies to be more accessible to older folks/those who have amassed a large amount of assets?
Is BTC a government psyop created to eventually pivot the USD to BTC? Doubt it, but you never know.
Will the wealth class let anything that is highly speculated and traded exist without getting their piece of the pie? Never.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
Could not possibly tell you that. Why does anyone do anything?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/do-you-have-enough-non-debt-money-ray-dalio-cfffe
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/do-you-have-enough-non-debt-money-ray-dalio-cfffe
I'm was sitting at home on my day off with a sick kiddo and played around with this today. Think or Swim has a nifty scan that shows earnings coming up in the next 5 days. I started with that and added a few filters. Here were the tickers I was watching with a few data points:59 South said:
You guys have turned into a freaking bear cave.
I sold 60 $ENVX 5/3 5.5 puts yesterday for .36. Strategy I'm working on- find beat up stock right before earnings with juiced premium and sell puts. This trade is a week long and should net $2160.
Ties up about $31k for a week. Earns about 7% on that capital in a week! Be the house.
Sell the puts fairly out of the money. If called out (fairly unlikely) then immediately sell covered calls out a month at same strike puts were sold.
I had limit orders in for the ones in green and only got filled on 3 of the contracts for SAVE. We'll see what happens.
Interesting thought exercise for the day; thanks for posting the idea
Why not just let it thrive in various exchanges and more in the shadows so the wealthy can exploit more market inefficiencies? There's two sides to everything brought up here.Heineken-Ashi said:Because the wealthy class wanted access to the constant 401k money to profit off the speculation in BTC.Chef Elko said:
I just feel like if this was all true why would the government allow Bitcoin etfs and allow cryptocurrencies to be more accessible to older folks/those who have amassed a large amount of assets?
Is BTC a government psyop created to eventually pivot the USD to BTC? Doubt it, but you never know.
Will the wealth class let anything that is highly speculated and traded exist without getting their piece of the pie? Never.
I'm not confident the federal government will ever cut back spending like they should. The can will be kicked forever. If the dollar truly fails, how bad will we be off? Certainly the entire world will be in chaos.
This is my thought as well. The government will always come up with some way to carry on; just like they did in 2008.Chef Elko said:Why not just let it thrive in various exchanges and more in the shadows so the wealthy can exploit more market inefficiencies? There's two sides to everything brought up here.Heineken-Ashi said:Because the wealthy class wanted access to the constant 401k money to profit off the speculation in BTC.Chef Elko said:
I just feel like if this was all true why would the government allow Bitcoin etfs and allow cryptocurrencies to be more accessible to older folks/those who have amassed a large amount of assets?
Is BTC a government psyop created to eventually pivot the USD to BTC? Doubt it, but you never know.
Will the wealth class let anything that is highly speculated and traded exist without getting their piece of the pie? Never.
I'm not confident the federal government will ever cut back spending like they should. The can will be kicked forever. If the dollar truly fails, how bad will we be off? Certainly the entire world will be in chaos.
BlueTaze said:
AMZN nearing $188 historical resistance level with an unfilled gap at $160. Could be a good put trade.
Adding more puts as AMZN re-tests resistance. Might breakout, but hopefully a healthy pull back within next 6 weeks.
That's awesome. Thanks for sharing. Another anecdotal filter to make you sleep better at night would be to only use the strategy on stocks that you'd be happy to own longer term. Just a mental thing I suppose. For example I'd avoid something like BYND but be all over something like SHOP.
Anyways, I think it's plausible to use this strategy to transition to stay at home dad in the next few years and fully replace the 9-5 salary but only working like 10 hrs a week with it. Would take discipline and obvious risk assessment. Plus it would take a decent bank roll safety net. Probably something on the range of $300-500k trading account and a partner who covers your health insurance
ETA: $ENVX closed >10 today so guess I should have sold a higher strike put!
Anyways, I think it's plausible to use this strategy to transition to stay at home dad in the next few years and fully replace the 9-5 salary but only working like 10 hrs a week with it. Would take discipline and obvious risk assessment. Plus it would take a decent bank roll safety net. Probably something on the range of $300-500k trading account and a partner who covers your health insurance
ETA: $ENVX closed >10 today so guess I should have sold a higher strike put!
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
damn, you got some serious cash on the sideline!!!
You're crazy for shorting AMZN but that's just me I suppose. There's a pretty real chance it is 220-250 by end of year. Long consolidation multi year bull flag or stage 3 distribution? Only time will tell I suppose!
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
EnronAg said:
damn, you got some serious cash on the sideline!!!
You must not have any idea how rich this thread is bruv!
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Yeah, that was one of the variables going through my mind when looking at the list of upcoming earnings and played a part in the ones I dabbled with today. (which ones would I be ok with owning)
not really, there was no way I would jump into all the tickers listed at one time! I was also just playing around with the contract size some too.EnronAg said:
damn, you got some serious cash on the sideline!!!
Only had orders in for a handful of contracts
Hot tip: if you're looking to double your money by Monday, Brentford Bees are +105 vs the Fulham River Rats tomorrow. Just saying!
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
59 South said:EnronAg said:
damn, you got some serious cash on the sideline!!!
You must not have any idea how rich this thread is bruv!
Cheerio lad, are you up to your usual skullduggery after imbibing multiple pints of ale on this fine Friday eve? Would you be a chivalrous chap and send me some real Guinness from Dublin that's not the swill we have across the pond so I may remove this challenging day from my memory and give it a proper send off? If so...
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