Bottom for now for market or just Apple?
Stock Markets
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Last: 1 hr ago by Heineken-Ashi
It was their $110B shr buyback, largest buyback in history for any corporation.EnronAg said:
raised the div $0.01...rocket time!
AAPL. But it still has a lot of work to do. And even though they beat, they are still down from same Q last year.bmoochie said:
Bottom for now for market or just Apple?
No idea on the market. Still in day to day whipsaw and don't expect it to change now.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Just passing along some research
As of today, the Intrinsic Value of BABA is $124.57. Its valuation is based on the model Discounted Cash Flows Growth Exit 5Y. With a current market price of $74.85, the upside of Baba is 66.4%.
Setting the range of the Intrinsic Value between $101.64 - $162.00.
I'm riding it out.
I did a Discount cash flow on TGNA its Intrinsic Value is 53.06. I used a ten year growth exit. TGNA valuation DCF has an upsie of 285%. With its current market price of $13.64 the upside of Tegna Inc is 289%.
TGNA's Intrinsic Value is $40.34 - $74.48
As of today, the Intrinsic Value of BABA is $124.57. Its valuation is based on the model Discounted Cash Flows Growth Exit 5Y. With a current market price of $74.85, the upside of Baba is 66.4%.
Setting the range of the Intrinsic Value between $101.64 - $162.00.
I'm riding it out.
I did a Discount cash flow on TGNA its Intrinsic Value is 53.06. I used a ten year growth exit. TGNA valuation DCF has an upsie of 285%. With its current market price of $13.64 the upside of Tegna Inc is 289%.
TGNA's Intrinsic Value is $40.34 - $74.48
I know, I was only kidding...that's an insane buyback!!ProgN said:It was their $110B shr buyback, largest buyback in history for any corporation.EnronAg said:
raised the div $0.01...rocket time!
Ok, at this point, AAPL staying above $178.50 is optimal for bottom is in.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Spent the last two months buying the dip on Apple.
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Spent the last two months buying the dip on Apple.
I think you just need to change your username to "buy the dip" because that's a trend with you.
Not criticizing just poking fun.
Apple is a perma hold and 164-170 was a gift.
We will see about AAPL - they're not as much of a dumpster fire as Tesla has been but their buyback and lack of detail on AI development reeks of desperation and hollow promises to me. I will bump my own post later this year when they are both killing it though.
Just now pushing through critical resistance of $186 - 61,8% retrace of December high. Next resistance $188 then $191.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
I'm also skeptical. They have a huge cash pile and spent a chunk of it today to boost their stock price after reporting declining YOY revenue and boasting about their big gain in services. So people aren't buying as many products but are instead buying ancillary support for products.flashplayer said:
We will see about AAPL - they're not as much of a dumpster fire as Tesla has been but their buyback and lack of detail on AI development reeks of desperation and hollow promises to me. I will bump my own post later this year when they are both killing it though.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
I just bumped up from 200GB to 2TB in cloud storage last night. Y'all are welcome.Heineken-Ashi said:I'm also skeptical. They have a huge cash pile and spent a chunk of it today to boost their stock price after reporting declining YOY revenue and boasting about their big gain in services. So people aren't buying as many products but are instead buying ancillary support for products.flashplayer said:
We will see about AAPL - they're not as much of a dumpster fire as Tesla has been but their buyback and lack of detail on AI development reeks of desperation and hollow promises to me. I will bump my own post later this year when they are both killing it though.
I agree with your points. I hope they consider a split but I've also seen companies who don't really worry that much with the float issue and are content with attracting long only, institutional investors. They are almost 50% closely held and may be content for now to leave the float as isProgN said:I am not worried about the wild swings at all, or their future earnings, because I've followed it closely for a long time. That said, others in here don't know it like I do and I don't want them to worry that something is wrong because it's down so much.Aglaw97 said:Back to our back and forth on POWL, this is why I've felt if you are in it as a long-term investor (meaning at least 6 months absent some catastrophic event), don't worry with the short-term noise that's inevitable with the low float. They may address this as you suggest through a split or they may take the position that they are fine with the low volume and would rather have long-only, established investors. Maybe they do a secondary offering or maybe they issue shares for M&A, which would increase liquidity. But I don't see a secondary right now just for general corporate purposes. It would likely have to be tied to some capital expansion.ProgN said:Stocks with extremely low floats don't follow technical analysis rules like larger companies do. They could come out AH and declare a 5:1 today if they wanted to. They don't have to wait for an ER. Blackrock could file that they're purchasing another 500K shares. Not saying either will happen, but either one of those would send it north of $250 in a heartbeat.Heineken-Ashi said:But they didn't, so you have to take what the market gives you.ProgN said:Number Monkey said:
Interested on thoughts on POWL as well. My stop kicked in today which locked me in with a 24% return in just 14 days. If the market really is going lower as many of us believe, isn't the better play to get back in after a future market correction?
No one needs to fret about POWL, their business and future are solid. What's happening at the moment is shorts are using the stock as their own personal casino. With POWL having such a small float, it doesn't take much volume to create dramatic movements in the stock price. Shorts push it down, cover, ride it up only to short and profit. That's why they should've split the stock. Larger float makes it harder to manipulate. Shorts are playing with fire though because Blackrock is the largest shareholder of POWL shares. Would you have the balls to short against $10T Blackrock?
POWL should've declared a 5:1 split and it would've put the short's nutsack through a woodchipper.
I did end up taking a position and am happy with it. I'm not concerned with interim noise and believe it has found support above my entry price so long as they don't crap the bed in a subsequent ER.
POWL doesn't have any debt and secondary offering would be the absolute worst thing they could do because the shorts would punish the stock price. Splitting the stock is really their only, and correct option to increase their float. They're punishing their long only investors by not splitting and making them go through these wild swings due to stock manipulation.
Anyone see that spike down in AAPL only to completely recover? Data error? Fat finger? Foreshadowing?
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
I did, and the same on NVDA.
Seems like your opinion is looking probable. Overall sales down 4%, iPhone sales down 10%, sales in China down 8%. Only thing that propped it up for now is the buyback.
Classic writing sir, love your stuff!M4 Benelli said:
All right trying to build this POWL battleship. Since they're around the same price point, traded 50 shares of SNOW for 50 shares of POWL. I don't think SNOW is moving in the short term, but POWL most definitely might. I already been to second base with this lass, and I'm asking her to go steady .
Will add more on a continual drop or flip it again for another second basing at Inspiration Point.
This stock is looking beautiful from a Fundamental standpoint.
Onwards to Valhalla.
doesn't SNOW have earnings soon, end of May I think? May 22nd looks like, I looked it up. The more they hold it down here, the more I think it would make a killer lotto play right before earnings.
POWL - I remember a trader wiser than me saying, look for strong stocks on weak days. POWL was the talk of the town a couple days ago when the whole market was blood red. Today, every turd looked great and POWL was red (and honestly cooling off). To be honest that just makes me more certain it is going to be an absolute BEAST. I added some POWL the and will add more on dips.
Charting 101
Find the trend. Still a downtrend until that upper channel boundary breaks. Then we use it as support with the mid line as stop. Those are perfect touches making up the double hits on each boundary, perfectly parallel. Earnings couldn't get over it. At least yet.
Find the trend. Still a downtrend until that upper channel boundary breaks. Then we use it as support with the mid line as stop. Those are perfect touches making up the double hits on each boundary, perfectly parallel. Earnings couldn't get over it. At least yet.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Darkpool being recorded to the tape.Heineken-Ashi said:
Anyone see that spike down in AAPL only to completely recover? Data error? Fat finger? Foreshadowing?
bmoochie said:
Bottom for now for market or just Apple?
MARKET BOTTOM BABY LFGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
I will forever picture you as this every time you post nowlobwedgephil said:Darkpool being recorded to the tape.Heineken-Ashi said:
Anyone see that spike down in AAPL only to completely recover? Data error? Fat finger? Foreshadowing?
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Karp never afraid to make it clear he and his company supports AMERICA
Great job bulls you did it pic.twitter.com/V7j0VMISUy
— unusualwhales.com Snorlax (๑❛ ڡ ❛๑) (@snorlax_uw) May 2, 2024
Jobs number comes in low, market takes off.
Nothing I hate more than a bad-news-is-good-news stock market, I get it but it just feels dirty.
Nothing I hate more than a bad-news-is-good-news stock market, I get it but it just feels dirty.
Ag CPA said:
Jobs number comes in low, market takes off.
Nothing I hate more than a bad-news-is-good-news stock market, I get it but it just feels dirty.
Aren't they interpreting that as good news on the inflation and rate cut front? That would actually seem like a relatively logical knee jerk market move for once.
Traders gonna trap retail hoping for rate cuts.Ag CPA said:
Jobs number comes in low, market takes off.
Nothing I hate more than a bad-news-is-good-news stock market, I get it but it just feels dirty.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
PLTR popping with earnings on Monday. Timing is everything.
"Me not know, me not tell, me push button and run like hell."
believe that was expected with JPow's remarks on the labor market Wednesday. Sounds coordinated.
Yes, but rate cuts will ultimately be a reflection of bad economic news. Inflation never "tames" on its own, especially in an ESG/DEI centric supply chain that has major supply issues. If we were flush with goods and services, prices could come down naturally with a small reduction in demand.flashplayer said:Ag CPA said:
Jobs number comes in low, market takes off.
Nothing I hate more than a bad-news-is-good-news stock market, I get it but it just feels dirty.
Aren't they interpreting that as good news on the inflation and rate cut front? That would actually seem like a relatively logical knee jerk market move for once.
BUT…..
We don't have that. We have tight supply. So how will inflation come down? With a major level of demand destruction - job losses that are big.
What Heineken is alluding to is a retail trap. Average investor thinks if we just get rate cuts everyone can resume their revenue and profit growth. Wrong. They are forgetting the step to get to rate cuts. Everyone's revenue has to drop first as demand is destroyed. Then, once the market is reset, then we can have rate cuts.
Markets don't bottom until policy starts easing. Policy won't ease until demand is destroyed.
Last week, I had been thinking this bounce might just be a bounce back to the 50-day on SPY and QQQ. We're finally there (SPY touched on the initial spike). Let's see if we do actually reclaim it.
They absolutely knew. I'm sure BLS and Biden leaked it to them to prevent further hawkish tones.Spoony Love said:
believe that was expected with JPow's remarks on the labor market Wednesday. Sounds coordinated.
And based on history, once the FED starts cutting, the market actually drops harder until it bottoms 6 months - 2 years later.
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
Beware ocean freight rates.
"The rate strength on ocean routes directly linked to diversions around southern Africa has spread to other trade lanes where there is not enough capacity to serve an unseasonal increase in demand, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said Thursday."
"You're seeing trade flows significantly up year on year, and that is exacerbating the shortage of capacity," Clerc told analysts on the carrier's earnings call.
"The rate strength on ocean routes directly linked to diversions around southern Africa has spread to other trade lanes where there is not enough capacity to serve an unseasonal increase in demand, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said Thursday."
"You're seeing trade flows significantly up year on year, and that is exacerbating the shortage of capacity," Clerc told analysts on the carrier's earnings call.
"Me not know, me not tell, me push button and run like hell."
How many of you read the article I posted twice this week?
“Give it hell Heinekandle, I’m enjoying it.”
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
- Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
“No secure borders, no alpha military, no energy independence, no leadership and most of all no mean tweets - this is the worst trade I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime. ***Put that quote in your quote/signature section HeinendKandle*** LOL!”
- also Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX (obviously in a worse mood)
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