I went to take a dump. That dump cost me quite a bit to not cover some options when the market basically blew a nut faster than a teenage kid.
Stock Markets
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Last: 4 min ago by South Platte
No dumps allowed. No fart jokes either.
Sheesh. FSLY murdered AH.
.
Damn it. CVNA up 30% after hours after earnings. It was heavily shorted also. Woulda shoulda.
Has to be lowered guidance? FSLY beat on both
DASH, EBAY, ETSY, ZG nosedives. When your model relies on cheap debt and cheap debt isn't coming, bye bye.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
We had a couple of new members from TexAgs get to see my approach to FOMC insanity.
Would love their reaction to how I traded it!
Would love their reaction to how I traded it!
Wow, wtf. Looks like I'll be a bagholder for a few years
Wonder if AAPL can salvage the week.
This will probably be the last time I say this, as most people just refuse to acknowledge that something other than "buy the dip", or "Fed saves the day", or "market always recovers" might be at play. I hope you have your plan in place in a scenario where things turn sour. The 2000 fractal is still in play. But since we are at a degree higher in the process (call it want you want - cycle, wave count, whatever), and with FAR worse and constantly deteriorating economic conditions, I cannot say for certain you will get as generous a bounce and slow rollover as 2000 gave before finally dumping. And if you go back in history to all the major dumps that followed strong long-term rallies to new highs (1920's, 1930's, 1960's, 2000), the capitulation almost always started in April/May. Most of us have never experienced a major bear market. Pretty much anyone under 60 hasn't experienced anything other than "Fed will step in" with a major drawdown being ultimately a short blip on the radar. And I'm going to repost the article from earlier today that I strongly urge you to read in its entirety without skimming or skipping sections. http://danielamerman.com/va/ccc/L5WkshpOver.html
2000
Present
2000
Present
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
I was mad at myself today. I had spy Junes as hedges that I ended up selling for a loss after the rocket ship towards 5100. Naturally we crash landed back to earth and they were near the same price where they opened. Very frustrating.
I need to separate the having hedges in place to let work and preserving cash and positions. I struggle separating the two sometimes.
I need to separate the having hedges in place to let work and preserving cash and positions. I struggle separating the two sometimes.
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Wonder if AAPL can salvage the week.
Pretty much everyone expects a sizeable decline in revenue due to the headwinds in the Chinese market. They're a hardware company in a software game. I don't think they save the day this week but they'll be great later this year and into 2025 if iPhone 16 has the ai they're promising
bmoochie said:
I was mad at myself today. I had spy Junes as hedges that I ended up selling for a loss after the rocket ship towards 5100. Naturally we crash landed back to earth and they were near the same price where they opened. Very frustrating.
I need to separate the having hedges in place to let work and preserving cash and positions. I struggle separating the two sometimes.
It's the hardest thing to do. I hedged my IWM puts two weeks ago with shorter dated calls that 2xed the next morning and I sold. I missed out on a 4x.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
A reliable measure of the market is the Buffet Indicator, which compares the Total Market Cap to the US GNP, the current Total Market Valuations are significantly overvalued.
The current ratio stands at 178.3. For comparison, a ratio of 153 is typically considered a significant overvaluation. I read recently, Buffet warned us that we're "playing with fire" at 178.3.
In order to return to a fair Total Market Valuation, the current market would need to pullback by a ratio of 56.
Bottom line, don't expect the market to improve anytime soon. We're in for a long downward bumpy ride. Best thing to do now is get defensive, diversify, and invest in other countries economies.
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
The current ratio stands at 178.3. For comparison, a ratio of 153 is typically considered a significant overvaluation. I read recently, Buffet warned us that we're "playing with fire" at 178.3.
In order to return to a fair Total Market Valuation, the current market would need to pullback by a ratio of 56.
Bottom line, don't expect the market to improve anytime soon. We're in for a long downward bumpy ride. Best thing to do now is get defensive, diversify, and invest in other countries economies.
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
what is this TexAgs place you speak of? is it anywhere near as good as this thread? (or that OA1 room for that matter)oldarmy1 said:
We had a couple of new members from TexAgs get to see my approach to FOMC insanity.
Would love their reaction to how I traded it!
Wanted to check in after I heard about the craziness of the afternoon
Holy bear flag on the SPY
Holy bear flag on the SPY
Wonder how long mods will let him shill his paid service on here before they get tired of it.
Wow, wtf happened with HUMA today? I don't have time to at the moment to dive into it.
So what's the problem? People are free to use it or not.
Extrapolate that question to everyone on the site offering goods/services and not being paid advertisers
OA1 is part of the fabric of this thread and has worked to educate quite a bit and has given much more than whatever he gets back in services. What he offers is a guidance on trades you won't get anywhere else. I would participate, but with work demands, it would never work for me. Not sure the reason some want to shine a spotlight...
On first glance Crude looks really good here. The issue is that we don't have any divergence yet. In fact, MACD is fairly balanced and would need to do some work to cross the signal line and indicate a reversal is happening. I could see Crude testing $77 tomorrow.
Nat gas needs to get extended upward. Otherwise, I fear new lows coming. Fortunately, that should be the last drop, as we would be at lows not seen since 1995.
Lastly, today's FOMC reversal came with hardly a nudge from VX and VXX. Those will key to watch early morning and will signal if we're going to get continuation. Also keep an eye on bond yields.
Nat gas needs to get extended upward. Otherwise, I fear new lows coming. Fortunately, that should be the last drop, as we would be at lows not seen since 1995.
Lastly, today's FOMC reversal came with hardly a nudge from VX and VXX. Those will key to watch early morning and will signal if we're going to get continuation. Also keep an eye on bond yields.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
No need to call me an idiot. I have no problem with you. I just feel like if you are going to regularly make posts trying to get people to leave here and go to your paid trading service you should buy an ad (you have the money). Just like many other hard working Aggies who pay to advertise their businesses on this site. I'll leave it at that and not disturb this thread any further. My apologies.
Just placed an overnight order for baba. Thanks for the tip sir, as always!
up 3% post AH, initially bought in at IPO but never sold peaking near 4x six years later before crashingoldarmy1 said:
Guys - we've been building position in BABA for a while at lows while waiting for the eventual breakout. I think it's coming now and it will shoot hard $10+ as market makers run it away from retail. You don't want to miss this move because I see it pushing $90's and $105 eventually.
Signed - Money Making Shill
Idiot! Lol
started scooping again this yr managed to double the position between 68-72
just holding in place of Intl Funds cus I'm goin down with the USA ship
Stan Crowch said:
No need to call me an idiot. I have no problem with you. I just feel like if you are going to regularly make posts trying to get people to leave here and go to your paid trading service you should buy an ad (you have the money). Just like many other hard working Aggies who pay to advertise their businesses on this site. I'll leave it at that and not disturb this thread any further. My apologies.
OA has done a ton to not only make those in this thread money but also educate on how the market works. I've learned a ton from him here and have seen my portfolio grow as a result. He does that for a very small ask (donations to charities). So if he wants to leverage what he single-handedly built here to promote his service, I have zero problems with it.
why are all of OA1's posts blank?!?
He deleted them.
Buying more SLV.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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