HoustonAg_2009 said:

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People were high on ARM earlier this year….. are you guys now thinking about loading up now that it's sub 90?

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https://texags.com/forums/57/topics/2721405/replies/67402003

IRWD

I found Ironwood right after they had a massive drop in February just scanning through daily movers. Looking at their long term chart, they do this all the time. Big drops, big gains, big drops, etc.. they have a few well known drugs like Linzess and Astrazenica. Anyways, they are near a 10 year low and undervalued so based on that I loaded up around $8.75 and have bought more since. It's a good one to watch and I don't see how it doesn't make big moves over the next year.

Thanks Prog! Totally missed this… I'll likely follow your lead on this one (as always!).

Just thinking about the week ahead. With earnings this week and a black-out before FOMC next week, it's feeling a little trappy.

What do folks think of these? GDXJ and SILJ As plays for gold/silver.

Heineken had a list of metal plays, but not sure if those two were on it or not

Junior miners are usually the last to wake up but can have some robust moves.

TSLA is one I'm keeping an eye on. $132 would be a 50% drop since its high on 12/28. If it gets down to there before EOD tomorrow, i think I might buy calls into earnings.

I am skeptical of what news could come out that could rally TSLA from a stock perspective this year;

Quote:

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Tesla is facing unprecedented challenges around the world, ranging from slowing demand, to increasing competition from its Chinese competitors, ongoing worker strikes in Sweden, and even sabotage by German climate activists. Earlier this month, the company warned investors to expect a lower rate of growth this year, blaming interest rate hikes for dampening demand. In the last three months of 2023, Tesla lost its crown as the manufacturer of the world's best-selling electric vehicles, as Chinese car company BYD sold 40,000 more cars globally than its US rival.
"[Tesla's] main aimto have electric vehicles achievable for everybodywill actually be achieved by other companies," says Liana Cipcigan, a professor of transport electrification at Cardiff University in Wales. Tesla's goal to release a lower-cost $25,000 EV has already been reachedby BYD. That has sparked an identity crisis at a company that was once at the vanguard of the industry. If its role is no longer to popularize cheap EVs, then what is?
Tesla's global fortunes are interwoven with Chinanow the source of its main competition. It took the company just 168 days to build its Shanghai factory back in 2019. Musk had been hoping to corner what is now the world's largest EV market. But the Tesla site also had "a catfish effect," says Lei Xing, an analyst and former editor of Beijing-based media outlet China Auto Review. In business, the "catfish effect" refers to introducing a big fisha competitive companyinto the tank to force smaller, weaker fish to up their game. If that was China's intention, it worked. In the five years since Tesla arrived in Shanghai, China's EV sales have jumped 500 percent.

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I'm not thinking buy a leap or anything like that. More of a short term, catch a bounce on a stock that has been oversold especially compared to the traditional big tech names.

It would not be a back up the brinks truck play. Also volatilities might be too high for that to be worth it.

This would be about the time we start the reverse into a red finish, if the pattern holds...

Just sold a TSLA $140 put.

Since I already own, I've now sold puts 4 times on the way down and bought back on spikes up. I don't plan to buy this one back as we're at a point we're I'm willing to take new shares to lower basis. My existing TSLA position is a long term "continue to bet on Elon" play. We will see how it turns out.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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This would be about the time we start the reverse into a red finish, if the pattern holds...

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damn, nice call

Heineken-Ashi said:

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AFLAC earnings May 1. If price is above $75, I'll probably be buying a good chunk of puts looking for $69 range. And I've got a target of low to mid $50's by election. But the next push down would be expected to be bought back for a couple months before the next drop. Watching closely.

Those of you wondering how to profit from downside. Pull up the 4hr chart and look at action since end of January. Corrections almost never happen in a single down day. It chopped back up to previous high. I'm looking for a 1.618% move of the last move down from the March high. If it happens BEFORE earnings, then I am forming a share position and maybe calls going into earnings.

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I looked at AFL this weekend and it looks primed for that potential drop you were describing. Are you going to follow through with the puts play?

Very risky but good R/R potential in SMCI.

Buy with stop at $675, target=$850.

bhanacik said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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AFLAC earnings May 1. If price is above $75, I'll probably be buying a good chunk of puts looking for $69 range. And I've got a target of low to mid $50's by election. But the next push down would be expected to be bought back for a couple months before the next drop. Watching closely.

Those of you wondering how to profit from downside. Pull up the 4hr chart and look at action since end of January. Corrections almost never happen in a single down day. It chopped back up to previous high. I'm looking for a 1.618% move of the last move down from the March high. If it happens BEFORE earnings, then I am forming a share position and maybe calls going into earnings.

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I looked at AFL this weekend and it looks primed for that potential drop you were describing. Are you going to follow through with the puts play?

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I kinds forget about it to be honest. I like where its at to reverse, but MACD isn't showing rollover yet on hourly and daily is pointing up after bottoming and rolling back up. Going to give it a little more time since we have over a week until earnings. Remind me later in the week to check back in.

will do

Buy order set on SMCI with OCO bracket

Buy: $692
Target: $800
Stop: $682

been holding onto garbage MTTR after following CNBC Jsoh Brown years ago...basis is $5.79 with a few covered calls mixed in...big pop on the purchase news at $5.50...should I continue to hold until $5.50 or dump because deal could fall thru and plummet it back to garbage dollars???

Big tech stocks giving me bad juju vibes on the 30 min candles.
Amzn, GOOG, META. Add TSLA if it breaks below 140.
Not sure which ones show signs of upside today.

In on SMCI.

I had this tin-foil thought last night while putting the kid to bed about TSLA....


Remember what grief Tesla got about Elon wanting to have 25% ownership earlier this year?


I would not be surprised to see Elon doing his best to sabotage the value to decrease it and still getting his $55B package and having that finally get him over his desired threshold of 25% ownership. That seems like the Chess not checkers move but again - just my tinfoil hat theory.

What was your buy signal? I'm working on getting my hero or 0 call spreads filled.

Chef Elko said:

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What was your buy signal? I'm working on getting my hero or 0 call spreads filled.

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Oversold readings across multiple timeframes and expecting a retracement bounce. Stop is fairly tight. Reward is good enough I'm willing to be wrong.

Good deal, thanks for your insights

I really like the 10 min intraday setup of Lulu. Got in some 350 puts.

I really hate looking at 1 min candles, but if SMCI is going to work as planned, we shouldn't see below $693 again. So from a risk management standpoint, if you are playing this $692 entry can be stop now. If you are willing to assume more risk, leave stop at the $682.

texagbeliever said:

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Big tech stocks giving me bad juju vibes on the 30 min candles.
Amzn, GOOG, META. Add TSLA if it breaks below 140.
Not sure which ones show signs of upside today.

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Felt like fortune flipped on these after some stabilizing occurred. I got out of a few different put plays for close to flat. Just think it could go either way at the moment.

LULU and IWM have my attention at the moment.

After seeming to confirm the move up, SMCI dropped way farther than I can give comfort to. Eyeing $725 as target now should it not break down before then. Stop is $689 right now.

Choppy but pushing toward 704 right now. I picked up a few and will adjust stop shortly to around 700.

EnronAg said:

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been holding onto garbage MTTR after following CNBC Jsoh Brown years ago...basis is $5.79 with a few covered calls mixed in...big pop on the purchase news at $5.50...should I continue to hold until $5.50 or dump because deal could fall thru and plummet it back to garbage dollars???

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held way longer with almost double basis, though did sell a bit (not nearly enough) when it touched $33 in 2021

my ignorant acquisition question is how would the loss harvesting structure differ between selling shares now at ~$5 vs waiting post merger to get the $2.75 cash + $2.75 CoStar shares?

SLV pulling back towards the add on levels for the Sep calls

SPY is teasing a push back to 500. Not sure where it goes from here. No news today seems to be good news so far.

Spoony Love said:

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SPY is teasing a push back to 500. Not sure where it goes from here. No news today seems to be good news so far.

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FOMO is kicking in for retail. If we blow through 500 with authority, I think it flies higher.