I've been trying to find the Book-to-Bill ration for semiconductors and I can't find it. I have run across articles that imply that they no longer follow it. If someone can find the current B2B ration and a trailing 12 month chart that would be great. TIA

I linked the Wrong thing. Never mind

China blocks use of Intel and AMD chips in government computers

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 24, 2024

Looks like puts are on the menu

El_duderino said:

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Wrong thing. Never mind

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Probably the right thread--I have worked in the semi market off and on the last 25 yrs. It mainly comes in handy when there is a shortage, i.e. 2020/2021 or possibly when there is a growing glut. Dont know whether that is the case but I have a suspicion. There are certainly folks that want to suppress book/bill ratio for other more important factors such as ESG or DEI, but that truly belongs in a different forum i.e. F16...

I'll do some looking around when I get back to a computer...

ProgN said:

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I've been trying to find the Book-to-Bill ration for semiconductors and I can't find it. I have run across articles that imply that they no longer follow it. If someone can find the current B2B ration and a trailing 12 month chart that would be great. TIA

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Did some rooting around and there is not much public info available currently. There are a number of paid market surveys, but don't think those are worth much although they are pricey ($2k to $10k for a 6 month subscription!).

I found this and it was interesting. Supported my hunch (my last post got tied to El duderino for some reason?) that inventory is building and there will be a glut in semi's soon:

https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2024/global-semiconductor-industry-outlook.html

Quote:

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Executives planning for an inventory surplus

• In last year's survey, 24 percent of respondents believed there was already an excess of semiconductor inventory. That amount increased to 30 percent in this year's survey, and an additional 12 percent think the next inventory excess will occur by the end of 2024.
• Reducing inventory levels was tied for the second most frequent action semiconductor companies have taken, or expect to take in the next year, in response to market forces and the economic environment. The postponing of capital expenditures, mentioned above, was number one.
• Excess production capacity ranked as the fourth highest industry issue over the next three years, up a spot from last year's survey.
• Conversely, there is a faction of executives who believe emerging technologies like AI represent a continual growth engine. Almost one in five (19 percent) executives believe demand will keep increasing and there will in fact not be an inventory excess in the next four years. This is double the amount from last year's survey (9 percent).

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Makes me think a significant Semi correction is coming our way, but you likely won't hear until maybe after November...

The glut is already here. Samsung's been manufacturing at 40% capacity for months and recently halted the construction of their new facility in Austin.

Construction at Taylor Samsung is halted due to some concrete issues I have heard about. Some other dumb moves have been made as well by rushing the project.

This was unrelated to demand. Hell they built Fab 2 through the 08 crash...

confucius_ag said:

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Construction at Taylor Samsung is halted due to some concrete issues I have heard about. Some other dumb moves have been made as well by rushing the project.

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working for an electrical contractor, most of the big guys are avoiding that job due to korean negotiations and lack of planning and schedule.

AgShaun00 said:

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confucius_ag said:

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Construction at Taylor Samsung is halted due to some concrete issues I have heard about. Some other dumb moves have been made as well by rushing the project.

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working for an electrical contractor, most of the big guys are avoiding that job due to korean negotiations and lack of planning and schedule.

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This is correct - poor planning and poor communication. They try to value engineer everything multiple times. Even when an idea is proven to be bad, someone not involved will approve it based on cost alone. They also like to make changes in the fly based on new lower cost ideas.

They have cost themselves hundreds of millions of dollars already.

TSLA, about to get some hourly EMA crossovers if it can keep pushing up. If so, and with the hold of support, could be very bullish. Once it breaks $180 it has a good chance to run near $190.

XLE got the through the triangle! While it could take off, I'd wait for a retrace. Often times these will bust through to the upside, then fall back to the top or just below the top of the triangle, shaking out some longs who think "false breakout". Then it rips. I'm thinking $110 as target.

Is there any price target range for BTC on a pullback? I know y'all said to expect one before the halving, but wasn't sure how significant of a dip to expect!

SMCI $1,030 is still what we need to confirm now more new lows short term.

aggies4life said:

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China blocks use of Intel and AMD chips in government computers

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) March 24, 2024

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impeccable timing lol, now AMD looks like it may be bottoming - just looking at buying volume coming in.

Old board favorite CWH is coming up on resistance. If it can stay above 25.86 watching for move to 27.5+. Nothing huge but its been on my watch list.

Bird Poo said:

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The glut is already here. Samsung's been manufacturing at 40% capacity for months and recently halted the construction of their new facility in Austin.

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I know for a fact that Inertial Measurement Units are in incredibly short supply-

to the point the US government is mandating distribution of them.

Man do I wish I had more than 2 NVDA shares...

BTC is at first resistance.

M4 Benelli said:

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M4 Benelli said:

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Everyone keep an eye on AEHR. 52 wk low, circling the drain. This thing rockets off good news, with a high over 50. Can easily see it hit the median in short order off decent news. Everything is frothy, so it would be a set and forget, toe in the water entry. With that being said they offer a unique business that has been expanding. Fwiw

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Big day on no news, grab your rocket packs.

Heini mind doing your thing with this ticker?

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Heineken, mind doing your thing again? It's falling hard off lowered guidance for next quarter. Looking juicy.

CLF looks poised to hit $25.

M4 Benelli said:

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M4 Benelli said:

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M4 Benelli said:

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Everyone keep an eye on AEHR. 52 wk low, circling the drain. This thing rockets off good news, with a high over 50. Can easily see it hit the median in short order off decent news. Everything is frothy, so it would be a set and forget, toe in the water entry. With that being said they offer a unique business that has been expanding. Fwiw

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Big day on no news, grab your rocket packs.

Heini mind doing your thing with this ticker?

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Heineken, mind doing your thing again? It's falling hard off lowered guidance for next quarter. Looking juicy.

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Looks to be near support. 610 EMA is around $10 and that also happens to be the lower Keltner band on weekly candles. Weekly RSI is giving me a buy signal, but that doesn't necessarily mean its ready to bounce.

I'd say wait for $10 or signs of a daily 8/21 upward crossover. Could be a 2x-3x play from $10. But the next move after a multi-week or multi-month bounce is likely to be another crash. So minding stops will be key.

FCX should get $55. Chance of big dump after that.

Will ROKU finally break the channel?

I'm going to take a stab at the AEHFR falling knife at $10.20 with stop $9.95. Below $10, and traditional technical are out the window and it's truly being beat to hell.

Any chance of a bounce is here, or $6 is next.

CLSK - $19 is now support that will have to hold on any corrections back down. My preference would be to see some sort of correction after today's action. From there, it would be a buy with stop in the high $18's and target $27.

NKLA getting a big boost today with the EV weakness. Perhaps hydrogen is feeling hopeful? Had a massive hold of support which is $0.52 from middle of last year. If we do the A=C 100% play, then buying here has 25 cents of downside until stop ($0.75 - $0.50) and $3.00 of upside ($3.75-$0.75). That's a great R/R. 100 shares for $75. $25 risk and $300 reward for a 5x potential. Worth it I'd say.

Anyone going to play DWAC after the news?

I'm scared of RDDT right now. Jumped in before opening. Like the climb throughout the day, but this last spike has me scared.....