Charismatic Megafauna said:

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I bought a tsla june 185c. Wcgw?

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Ended up with 3 of these, trimmed one for 40%, riding the other two to valhalla

Talon2DSO said:

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Google is up 5.5% in premarket. That dip didn't last long

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Report that Apple is going to license Gemini to use on IPhones.

As an Apple user this is kind of disappointing, would hope they had a better plan than this given all of Gemini's issues.

TSLA touched the 610 EMA (fib number, I use this as my long term EMA) and reversed. That might be all we get today.

Still need $165 to hold. If it can stay above $169 then this could see $177 on next move.

Edit clarify: looking at 15min candles.

yields up, stocks ripping...love this market

AMD "W" look intraday, and volume flowing in now. 50% retrace from that blow off top is 205.5 ish.

SMCI - This is close to a potential swing buy. The problem is, it can dip further to $890 if it wants. Key juncture right now. If it bounces from today's low, I've got $1,400 next swing target. If it continues the dip to $890, that target moves down to $1,340.

I don't think I want to do anything until we get to FED day Wednesday. If this gets to the $890 level by then, I might be buying shares.

$1k April 5th calls are going for $75 per contract. While that could be a 4x if I'm right (and the move happens in 7 days like the last move up), that's a TON of risk I'm not willing to take. Shares on the other hand making the same move could give a 1.5x and you could have a much lower risk profile.

Watching closely.

GCT may be presenting a buy opportunity. Down 22 percent after an easy beat on earnings and revenues. Anyone know of why it is so down today?

RBLX below 36

TheVarian said:

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RBLX below 36

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Wait for signs of bounce. If this area doesn't hold, $30-$34 come into view.

bmoochie said:

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texagbeliever said:

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NVDA below 900 signals a bearish outlook to me.

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Reminder they have an event this afternoon that could easily send this soaring again. This move could just be shaking out going on.

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Good information. Thanks

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Reminder, SMCI is now S&P500 and no longer going to be pulling up Russell.

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Does it being in S&P 500 necessarily mean it's removed from the Russell 2000 index on the same day?

From what I can tell, it's not rebalanced until late June.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Reminder, SMCI is now S&P500 and no longer going to be pulling up Russell.

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Does it being in S&P 500 necessarily mean it's removed from the Russell 2000 index on the same day?

From what I can tell, it's not rebalanced until late June.

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Good question. I charge you with finding the answer as I don't know.

Google says the two indexes are not mutually exclusive, so it's possible in some cases for there to be overlap. So if Russell is dropping SMCI, it won't be confirmed until late May, and would come out the fourth Friday of June.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Google says the two indexes are not mutually exclusive, so it's possible in some cases for there to be overlap. So if Russell is dropping SMCI, it won't be confirmed until late May, and would come out the fourth Friday of June.

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Thanks for clarifying.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Regarding GRPN, there's a potential uptrend starting. If today's beer candle can keep away from indecision and get over $10.50, I could see buying shares with a stop at $9.50 should it resume the previous downtrend.

If you switch to weekly, you can see a longert-term uptrend is in the process of being formed with a lot of work to do, as it's only two candles so far, only one of which is not an indecision.

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Groupon said Tuesday it commenced an $80 million rights offering.
Under the offering, shareholders will receive the right to purchase 0.222257 share at a subscription price of $11.30 per share.
The rights offering expires Jan. 17 and is fully backstopped by Pale Fire Capital, an entity affiliated with the company's interim Chief Executive Officer Dusan Senkypl and Jan Barta, a member of the board.
Any shares that are unsubscribed by the expiration date will be purchased by Pale Fire Capital once the rights offering ends.
Funds raised will be used for general corporate purposes, including the repayment of debt, the company said.

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Quote:

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• The company intends to use the proceeds from the rights offering for general corporate purposes, which may include the repayment of debt.

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What's happening fundamentally is the company has slowing revenues and cost of funds to bolster a weakening balance sheet has been high. The company is in the middle of a cost cutting campaign. One of the cofounders stepped down recently. Bears are circling. Talk has shifted to "focusing on a top line approach" which means sales and revenue. So with the recent CEO backed offering, the company obviously feels like the bottom line has been addressed as much as possible, whether good or bad. Unless rates come screaming down, there won't be anything else to do on that front. So the only option is to try and grow the top line. But can they? Does anyone use Groupon anymore? Is this a dying company? Who knows.

Now let's talk technical. I already briefed above on the current uptrend that is trying to form. But let's go back. We're talking about a company that has been in a downtrend since IPO with some shorter uptrend bounces sprinkled within. And like other small cap discretionary stocks, it was beaten to hell with the rise in interest rates and the deterioration of the decade long bull market and endless growth outlook. You really have to switch to logarithmic charting to see the picture. The most recent downtrend started in February 2021 and bottomed out in May 2023. The 50% correction level for that would be $33.79 on a linear scale, but $13.79 if calculated logarithmically. One of those has been achieved already and commissioned a reversal that recently took on a gap down. That gap is in the mid $13's. I like this to eventually close that gap at a minimum, and to form a mini cup in the low $30's at best. And we're entering Christmas Santa rally season.

I'm a share buyer if I engage, mainly due to the price and target levels. 1,000 shares at the $10.50 level once beer candles confirm, and a sale of 75-80% at the gap fill, would get you risk free access to 200-250 shares in which to wait for a potential higher target. But a stop is important. I'd be at $9.50 if engaged at current levels or higher. Because if it triggers, you know you'll be able to get back in likely a little lower, or be glad you got out. Ultimate stop would be the recent low in the $8 range.

For calls, the most two recent big drops had virtually matching volume spikes. Yall know what that means since they were preceded by overbought signals. Out and back in for smart money. If we get another spike that matches those, it's likely bearish. But if it surpasses, it's potentially bullish, and price is likely moving up. If this forms an uptrend with volume averaging 1M daily or less, it's likely building toward a spike of some sort. Watch for volume to form the left side of a U shape (already in the process) similar to the shape between the previous two spikes. Once the right side of that U starts to form, assuming price is holding support, that's where you start looking for calls. Can't tell you what to buy yet, but it would likely be ATM 3-months out at that time.

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I posted this back in November. Came up to just over $19, well short of target, and dumped. I can't rule out this drop to the mid $12.50 being a support zone in log scale and a renewed run starting that would take it back up. Target zone from here would be $23.50 - $30. So good R/R if it can bounce next week.

But this has completed enough of an upward structure to be considered finished. It's had a 10 month run fueled by hope that rates will be dropping and that they would fuel increased transaction volume and sale valuations. Recent data and potential for higher for longer is what's killing them here as their business outlook continues to flutter in the high rate environment. If a top is in, expect a 6-12 month drop to $6 - $7.50 range. The current top being in scenario would be a bit of a truncated topping action technically, so I'm truly not sold either way. Below $9.50 and I will move toward a full AVOID on this one.

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GRPN is teasing the $12.50 support line--if it holds above for the next day or so do you plan to jump in?

Big resistance area for OXY touching the downward trendline dating back to Nov 2022.

Very hesitant. I don't want to be in stocks like this if we dump on FED day. So probably not. Want to see solid confirmation.

What's with $TELL? Down 24+% today. ONly news they changed President.

They are exploring all options including a sale of the company. My guess is that means bankruptcy or selling at a discount to current share price.

https://boereport.com/2024/03/18/lng-developer-tellurian-to-explore-sale-among-other-options-ceo-steps-down/

TLT might finally give us that $89 region we were previously looking for. We had a false bottom last time with breakout attempt that failed. I'll be buying the next bottom.

Crude oil very close to swing target of $83. Could extend to $84. Above that and it has runway to $87.

Don't be surprised if you see low to mid $70's again in the coming weeks if it hits its head under $84.

I'm sure the administration has a plan in replace to release more from the SPR to take care of those price levels

insulator_king said:

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What's with $TELL? Down 24+% today. ONly news they changed President.

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I think its a shake out due to uncertainty. Did the same thing when they annouched Souki was out also. Wait and see mode for me but I am still in my shares.

They want to sell off markets going into fed. This might be setup for a rip. I saw SMCI sub 900 minutes ago.

also the gap from Friday is now filled.

unless it's a fake out, the price action in NVDA over the past few sessions makes me think the broader market sell-off is quickly approaching...

bought some AMZN shares, lots of flow yesterday and basing this on premarket strength.

Brewmaster said:

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They want to sell off markets going into fed. This might be setup for a rip. I saw SMCI sub 900 minutes ago.

also the gap from Friday is now filled.

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Super Micro Computer, one of the hottest AI plays alongside Nvidia, tanks 10% on share offering (cnbc.com)

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Shares of Super Micro Computer
dropped on Tuesday after the company announced a new share offering, taking a bite out of one of the biggest rallies tied to the AI boom.

The company said in a filing Tuesday morning that it plans to sell 2 million additional shares of common stock, pushing its total shares outstanding to over 58 million.

The shares were down 10% in premarket trading.

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