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fightintxag13
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AG
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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fightintxag13 said:


Remember - in March of 2023....

Eleven Banks deposited $30B in first republic bank and it still ended up failing and having to get swooped up by JPM by December.


$1B seems like a solid start for equity raise, but what it won't do is stop the withdrawls from the customers which can add further pressure.

Heineken-Ashi
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Banks are in trouble! You have been warned so many times.
Bonfire.1996
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McInnis 03 said:

Fed comes out and says "unemployment needs to significantly increase for rate drops to be sped up"

Opinion of one analyst based on Powell's testimony today is that the first rate cut could be delayed to end of year.

That would mean lotsa dominoes, eh Bonfire?
In theory yes, but it's all bluster until a $40 Billion bank picks up the phone and calls the FDIC. I firmly believe the FED cannot allow a banking crisis right now with deposit surpluses paper thin or nonexistent at most banks.

Normally, bank runs don't get too serious as banks have surplus deposits AND Federal sources of funding to tap into. Now? Deposits are already thin and most regional banks have already tapped some federal liquidity sources to prop up their bad bond portfolios. They're using bank run stop gaps to fund their bad decisions, without a bank run. What happens when the run actually starts?

Get it?
Bonfire.1996
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If Mnuchin is involved, he got convertible shares that will be picked up by JPM on the purchase. Guaranteed.

Why invest in this failing asset when returns are so good everywhere else?
South Platte
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Banks are in trouble! You have been warned so many times.
FAZ is down 30% over the last 3 months
Heineken-Ashi
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South Platte said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Banks are in trouble! You have been warned so many times.
FAZ is down 30% over the last 3 months
So what does that mean?
Charismatic Megafauna
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So you're saying emergency rate cut, stonks go up more, i don't get my crash, and all the cash I've been sitting on becomes worth even less?
ProgN
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This market won't break until PT raises on NVDA stop coming out everyday, imo.
EnronAg
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or blowoff top with massive rug pull and snatch up equities at 50 cents on the dollar with some patience
ETX_Ag_22_24
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Is U still in play?
ProgN
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ETX_Ag_22_24 said:

Is U still in play?
When it gets to my $25 or less, then I'm going back into it.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Drool...
ProgN
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The FOMO of this market is the strongest I think I've ever seen. No negative news affects it because people see any dip as a buying opportunity.
AgEng06
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So did we miss the PLUG boat at $3.60?
Brian Earl Spilner
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I'm just glad I let some of my buys go through yesterday. I thought about cancelling a lot of them in case we went lower, but at this point it's really seeming like a true correction may not be in the cards anytime soon.
GreasenUSA
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Looks like the correction will start tomorrow, now.
flashplayer
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GreasenUSA said:

Looks like the correction will start tomorrow, now.


You mean that was a false alarm yesterday?
Brewmaster
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AgEng06 said:

So did we miss the PLUG boat at $3.60?
I don't think so, it's still within the trend lines. I scalped it for a few bucks, but the volume was insane.

If it pulls back to bottom of this trend line in the next few days, that'd be Heine's magical 3.50 or so number...

Brian Earl Spilner
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GreasenUSA said:

Looks like the correction will start tomorrow, now.
You're welcome.
Heineken-Ashi
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ProgN said:

The FOMO of this market is the strongest I think I've ever seen. No negative news affects it because people see any dip as a buying opportunity.


It's part FOMO and part liquidity entering the market. When the money in the sideline finally deploys, the top will be in within a month.
Heineken-Ashi
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

I'm just glad I let some of my buys go through yesterday. I thought about cancelling a lot of them in case we went lower, but at this point it's really seeming like a true correction may not be in the cards anytime soon.


Just make sure you know your stops.

No stops in this market is more risky than ever.
South Platte
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Heineken-Ashi said:

South Platte said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Banks are in trouble! You have been warned so many times.
FAZ is down 30% over the last 3 months
So what does that mean?
It affirms your point that everybody keeps ignoring issues in the financial sector.
I bleed maroon
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South Platte said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

South Platte said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Banks are in trouble! You have been warned so many times.
FAZ is down 30% over the last 3 months
So what does that mean?
It affirms your point that everybody keeps ignoring issues in the financial sector.
Actually, it doesn't mean much of anything. If you investigate triple-leverage ETFs, you'll find a strikingly similar long-term downward trend in most of them - especially the bear-focused ones. THEY'RE NOT FOR INVESTORS.
K2-HMFIC
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https://www.investors.com/news/technology/palantir-wins-u-s-army-contract-for-project-titan-shares-jump/

If PLTR starts sucking up the JADC2 market for DoD, this will be a monumental win for them. Approaching $B level income.
BlueTaze
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BlueTaze said:

JD might be a good lotto play or swing trade into earnings tonight. Beaten down Chinese retailer trading near cash on hand, a strong report could squeeze. Looks like some historical support in $20-21 range, possible double bottom W.

I went with March 15 $24 calls @ .45


Revenue beat and $3B stock buyback. Set alert at $31 to look at exiting this trade. Now in money at $25.
South Platte
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I bleed maroon said:

South Platte said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

South Platte said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Banks are in trouble! You have been warned so many times.
FAZ is down 30% over the last 3 months
So what does that mean?
It affirms your point that everybody keeps ignoring issues in the financial sector.
Actually, it doesn't mean much of anything. If you investigate triple-leverage ETFs, you'll find a strikingly similar long-term downward trend in most of them - especially the bear-focused ones. THEY'RE NOT FOR INVESTORS.
Understood, based on the market's history of essentially going up over the last century. My original post noted it was up 30% over the last 3 months.
Aglaw97
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So what do you think is the most likely outcome over the next 12-18 months?
agdaddy04
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I'm fairly upset with selling my long term shares of them at $25 but not wanting to have FOMO either.
Brewmaster
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Damn, well done sir! I was too chicken **** to join you.
You're not trimming any til $31?!
El_duderino
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AMZN evening star pattern?


Bonfire.1996
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Aglaw97 said:

So what do you think is the most likely outcome over the next 12-18 months?

1. Rates cut in Summer to bail out banks and Biden
2. Inflation begins to return in early Fall, but not reported till post election
2A. Biden's replacement elected over DJT
3. Economic slowdown in 3Q and 4Q as companies shed employees to protect margin as producer prices accelerate.
4. Stagflation in 1Q25 and double top inflation.
5. Dems pass tax increases with control of House, Senate, and WH to close the deficit gap.
6. Time to pay the piper for 15 years of ZIRP and easy money expansion.
7. Biggest buying opportunity of our lifetimes in second half 2025.
ProgN
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Bonfire.1996 said:

Aglaw97 said:

So what do you think is the most likely outcome over the next 12-18 months?

1. Rates cut in Summer to bail out banks and Biden
2. Inflation begins to return in early Fall, but not reported till post election
2A. Biden's replacement elected over DJT
3. Economic slowdown in 3Q and 4Q as companies shed employees to protect margin as producer prices accelerate.
4. Stagflation in 1Q25 and double top inflation.
5. Dems pass tax increases with control of House, Senate, and WH to close the deficit gap.
6. Time to pay the piper for 15 years of ZIRP and easy money expansion.
7. Biggest buying opportunity of our lifetimes in second half 2025.
They don't even have to pass tax increases because the Trump tax cuts expire next year so hope everyone is ready for a decrease in your paychecks. I could see them letting them expire on businesses and taxpayers AND adding more taxes which will crush the middle class. They also won't stop spending and increase their spending, so we're ****ed. Prepare your anus.

Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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ProgN said:

Bonfire.1996 said:

Aglaw97 said:

So what do you think is the most likely outcome over the next 12-18 months?

1. Rates cut in Summer to bail out banks and Biden
2. Inflation begins to return in early Fall, but not reported till post election
2A. Biden's replacement elected over DJT
3. Economic slowdown in 3Q and 4Q as companies shed employees to protect margin as producer prices accelerate.
4. Stagflation in 1Q25 and double top inflation.
5. Dems pass tax increases with control of House, Senate, and WH to close the deficit gap.
6. Time to pay the piper for 15 years of ZIRP and easy money expansion.
7. Biggest buying opportunity of our lifetimes in second half 2025.
They don't even have to pass tax increases because the Trump tax cuts expire next year so hope everyone is ready for a decrease in your paychecks. I could see them letting them expire on businesses and taxpayers AND adding more taxes which will crush the middle class. They also won't stop spending and increase their spending, so we're ****ed. Prepare your anus.




If they let the trump tax cuts expire with how stretched every middle or low income consumer is feeling right now is political suicide.
EnronAg
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It is NOT political suicide, my friend. That is their plan/dream. They have every election from here on out.
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