No celebrating until you see Prog's mom singing.Brewmaster said:brilliant!Heineken-Ashi said:Switch to log mode. Make sure fibs calculate in log. Initial move off the low held 61.8% retracement. Then hit my favorite 100% extension target, chopped around, and has now reversed hard giving oversold intraday signals.Brewmaster said:same Q for me!ProgN said:Heineken-Ashi said:
Buying TSLA here. Stop $186. Initial target $220.
You must see something I don't.
$186 is the 61.8% level from the early Feb low to the $205 high. It's a play hoping for the same pattern to play on a slightly larger scale.
Not a high probability play. But had a great R/R for a repeat of a patterned move.
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who said anything about coming off the ledge?EnronAg said:
I thought Prog talked you down from the ledge...and you went ahead and jumped anyway...
Heineken-Ashi said:No celebrating until you see Prog's mom singing.Brewmaster said:brilliant!Heineken-Ashi said:Switch to log mode. Make sure fibs calculate in log. Initial move off the low held 61.8% retracement. Then hit my favorite 100% extension target, chopped around, and has now reversed hard giving oversold intraday signals.Brewmaster said:same Q for me!ProgN said:Heineken-Ashi said:
Buying TSLA here. Stop $186. Initial target $220.
You must see something I don't.
$186 is the 61.8% level from the early Feb low to the $205 high. It's a play hoping for the same pattern to play on a slightly larger scale.
Not a high probability play. But had a great R/R for a repeat of a patterned move.
CRWD has been coiling between 315 and downward channel since 10:10am this morning. Seems ready to go somewhere fast.
I just bought 1 CRWD $250p that expires 3/15 at $2.00texagbeliever said:
CRWD has been coiling between 315 and downward channel since 10:10am this morning. Seems ready to go somewhere fast.
Double bottom on MARA at $24.50 range. Not my favorite for a bullish setup, but can point back to $30 for a shorter term trade.
I'm still leaning to more bearishness. But having a hard time fighting the FOMO to jump back in. Still think we see some sort of a BTC correction pre-halving. Happens almost every time. Only difference this time is the ETF's and institutional interest. That, and coins are being pulled off the market left and right leaving the tradeable coins in a supply squeeze.
I'm still leaning to more bearishness. But having a hard time fighting the FOMO to jump back in. Still think we see some sort of a BTC correction pre-halving. Happens almost every time. Only difference this time is the ETF's and institutional interest. That, and coins are being pulled off the market left and right leaving the tradeable coins in a supply squeeze.
December 2022-March 2023 UNFI range. Looks awfully familiar. Never gap filled and dropped big on March earnings.
To be fair, interest rates were rising and earnings were getting worse each quarter. This time around, if earnings come in profitable with rising revenue, the reverse would be true with stagnant rates.
Still undecided on this one. Probably won't allocate more than a small gambling position to it tomorrow.
To be fair, interest rates were rising and earnings were getting worse each quarter. This time around, if earnings come in profitable with rising revenue, the reverse would be true with stagnant rates.
Still undecided on this one. Probably won't allocate more than a small gambling position to it tomorrow.
TGT earnings before market opens tomorrow could be interesting.
CRWD after market closes more interesting.
CRWD after market closes more interesting.
I think TGT beats pretty solidly. WMT, AMZN, Best Buy all beat while Lowe's and HD missed. Consumer staples are beating out of inflationary necessity, while home maintenance lags. Classic inflation desperation.texagbeliever said:
TGT earnings before market opens tomorrow could be interesting.
CRWD after market closes more interesting.
Therefore Target beats, in my opinion. However the likelihood of it being baked in with the WMT and AMZN news is really high, and with the latest bull rally, I could see a beat and sell off when they issues neutral guidance.
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texagbeliever said:
TGT earnings before market opens tomorrow could be interesting.
CRWD after market closes more interesting.
Dang... thought i had another day or so, didn't mean to hold 10% of my account in calls through er
I don't like most sectors right now. Many are far along into high targets I had. But there a handful that might have some room to go. I'll be analyzing sectors tonight looking for high probability options plays like the one we just had (and are still working on) in XLRE.
Miners have been lagging Bitcoin as of late - safer just to move from miners to Bitcoin etfs?
Different plays.aggies4life said:
Miners have been lagging Bitcoin as of late - safer just to move from miners to Bitcoin etfs?
Look at MARA and RIOT during the last BTC bull run. From September 2020 to ATH, BTC returned nearly 7x
Over the same time period, MARA returned 56x and RIOT returned 30.5x.
Even CLSK almost made the same return as BTC and they had almost no HODL position and weren't even proftable, turning in negative EPS at the top. They were younger than the other two but have grown really fast really quick. Whereas they had almost no BTC HODL, they now have more than half the coins held that RIOT does, and RIOT has fallen stagnant while CLSK is growing it's HODL in a huge way.
You have exposure to BTC for two reasons.
1. Hedge against the financial system, the FED, and the dollar.
2. Great investment returns during bull runs.
You have exposure to miners ONLY during bull runs, as their BTC position alone will have their valuations explode and their gains will outpace BTC.
I will say, there is some chatter that miners have seemed to have decoupled from the way they acted in previous BTC run ups. I'm not sure I agree, but it's worth considering. Maybe the ETF's have taken much of the share for those wanting BTC exposure indirectly. If so, they will still perform and likely outperform BTC. But maybe not 30-50x. Maybe more like 10-15x where BTC gets 4-5x assuming $100k-$125k top in BTC.
4x for MARA at BTC 100k is $80 from $20 and $60 from $15.
4x for MARA at BTC 100k is $80 from $20 and $60 from $15.
SNOW gap filled back to the $175 level from 11/29
Anyone in doge?
Yes, and shiba. Put very low amounts in both. I'm VERY happy right now!
ETA, I know how volatile they are. I lost my ass on Doge the first go round. Went to bed up big, and woke up down hoping it would come back. It never did….
ETA, I know how volatile they are. I lost my ass on Doge the first go round. Went to bed up big, and woke up down hoping it would come back. It never did….
Heineken-Ashi said:
I will say, there is some chatter that miners have seemed to have decoupled from the way they acted in previous BTC run ups. I'm not sure I agree, but it's worth considering. Maybe the ETF's have taken much of the share for those wanting BTC exposure indirectly. If so, they will still perform and likely outperform BTC. But maybe not 30-50x. Maybe more like 10-15x where BTC gets 4-5x assuming $100k-$125k top in BTC.
4x for MARA at BTC 100k is $80 from $20 and $60 from $15.
You had me at 4x Heineken, you had me at 4x! that sell off today in MARA was crazy, fast move.
was going for a let's go gif, but this board needs more hot chicks!
One more MARA post. Last week they disclosed a shelf offering.
In other words, they are expanding their total shares but putting them on the "shelf". To be sold when they see fit. This could be soon, or it could be after another runup to take advantage of higher prices.
But I guess it depends on how you view BTC. Is it the future of finance and the next global currency standard?And will only go up? Or is susceptible to wild swings, big bulls and big bears. If the former, HODL matters. And miners increasing HODL means more BTC on the balance sheet constantly raising the stock price as BTC gains. If the latter, then you want them selling portions of their HODL at highs, more than they usually would to pay their bills, to pay off debts and increase cash to be in better financial position for the swings down. But if you're the first person, you still shouldn't own MARA. You should own BTC. MARA does nothing for you if BTC is what you say it is. If you're the second person, you trade MARA knowing you will be out when SHTF.
Unfortunately, just about all of the miners do this during bull runs while also expanding their equipment and mining capabilities. They dilute the shareholders as it goes up and crashes even harder when it comes down. You could argue that MARA has paid down a sizeable portion of their debt and are working towards a more responsible business model having learned the lessons of the last downturn. But do you trust companies who have proven to continually dilute you? Do you trust this will be the last time? That's why I say don't own these, trade them.
CLSK is probably the most responsible miner right now as far as running a good company. Saylor and MSTR are in full belief that diluting shareholders now to buy more and more BTC is the way to go. Acting like a highly levered casino. Is he right?
All that said, it doesn't really matter in a BTC bull market. Just don't get stuck holding the bag. If MARA releases these off the shelf slowly, it could take months to absorb them.
The last three dilutions sent the stock down 22% in 2023, 38% in 2022, and 44.5% in 2021. None of them were near highs like this one except 2021, though it ended up not being a high. The 2021 one happened around $27 and we know what happened after it bottom.. $49 within a month. The second after the BTC market had turned down. The dilution marked the top of a bounce and sold down 38% in less than a month. The third was last year after it had barely picked itself up off the $7 floor to $10.72 and the dilution announcement sent it to $8.39. I think the only applicable comparison is 2021. Already it's gotten as low as 27% from the high. 44.5% would be around $18 for a potential bottom.
In other words, they are expanding their total shares but putting them on the "shelf". To be sold when they see fit. This could be soon, or it could be after another runup to take advantage of higher prices.
This is extremely common with BTC miners. Their success outside of BTC bull runs require precision execution.Quote:
a sales agreement prospectus supplement covering the offering, issuance, and sale by us of up to a maximum aggregate offering price of up to $1.5 billion of shares of our common stock that may be issued and sold from time to time pursuant to an at-the-market offering agreement, dated October 24, 2023 (the "Sales Agreement"), with H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC, as sales agent.
But I guess it depends on how you view BTC. Is it the future of finance and the next global currency standard?And will only go up? Or is susceptible to wild swings, big bulls and big bears. If the former, HODL matters. And miners increasing HODL means more BTC on the balance sheet constantly raising the stock price as BTC gains. If the latter, then you want them selling portions of their HODL at highs, more than they usually would to pay their bills, to pay off debts and increase cash to be in better financial position for the swings down. But if you're the first person, you still shouldn't own MARA. You should own BTC. MARA does nothing for you if BTC is what you say it is. If you're the second person, you trade MARA knowing you will be out when SHTF.
Unfortunately, just about all of the miners do this during bull runs while also expanding their equipment and mining capabilities. They dilute the shareholders as it goes up and crashes even harder when it comes down. You could argue that MARA has paid down a sizeable portion of their debt and are working towards a more responsible business model having learned the lessons of the last downturn. But do you trust companies who have proven to continually dilute you? Do you trust this will be the last time? That's why I say don't own these, trade them.
CLSK is probably the most responsible miner right now as far as running a good company. Saylor and MSTR are in full belief that diluting shareholders now to buy more and more BTC is the way to go. Acting like a highly levered casino. Is he right?
All that said, it doesn't really matter in a BTC bull market. Just don't get stuck holding the bag. If MARA releases these off the shelf slowly, it could take months to absorb them.
The last three dilutions sent the stock down 22% in 2023, 38% in 2022, and 44.5% in 2021. None of them were near highs like this one except 2021, though it ended up not being a high. The 2021 one happened around $27 and we know what happened after it bottom.. $49 within a month. The second after the BTC market had turned down. The dilution marked the top of a bounce and sold down 38% in less than a month. The third was last year after it had barely picked itself up off the $7 floor to $10.72 and the dilution announcement sent it to $8.39. I think the only applicable comparison is 2021. Already it's gotten as low as 27% from the high. 44.5% would be around $18 for a potential bottom.
Saw a post on another board about SLV during the last two presidential elections. 2016 ran to nearly $20 in August from bottom of $13, or around $14 in March. 2020 ran to nearly $30 in August from just under $11 in March. We're currently not even to $22 from a 2024 bottom around $20.
$25 calls are 82 cents in September. $30 would be a 500%+ gain and $40 would be a 1700%+ gain. 30 calls would be about $2k and would net between $15k and $45k if this performs similarly.
I'm strongly considering it. Might even do 50 contracts.
$25 calls are 82 cents in September. $30 would be a 500%+ gain and $40 would be a 1700%+ gain. 30 calls would be about $2k and would net between $15k and $45k if this performs similarly.
I'm strongly considering it. Might even do 50 contracts.
What's the goal with APPL? Scoop up at 160?
AAPL still amazes me that they have just been sitting idly by and not mentioning a word of AI...the second they start to pound it like every other NASDAQ company has done so, their stock would explode...no clue how low they can go, but it just amazes me Tim Cook is sitting on his hands with AI...it just seems that he has not wanted to play that game for whatever reason...
I'm in for 2 in my small options account
Do we still like SNOW shares here? Buying more straight shares?
Yes, but I think you meant to quote H-A? He did the analysis of Snow on the previous page I think.
You may not remember last summer, but all of the high-beta big boys were announcing AI throughout the first half of last year. AAPL was the final one to do so - on 7/19/23.EnronAg said:
AAPL still amazes me that they have just been sitting idly by and not mentioning a word of AI...the second they start to pound it like every other NASDAQ company has done so, their stock would explode...no clue how low they can go, but it just amazes me Tim Cook is sitting on his hands with AI...it just seems that he has not wanted to play that game for whatever reason...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-19/apple-preps-ajax-generative-ai-apple-gpt-to-rival-openai-and-google
That proved to be a top in the market, which sold off all the way through the end of October low.
I feel like Covid had a lot more to do with the most recent upswing you mentioned. If you go back and look at 2012 and 2008 those years it didn't do very well during election cycles.
going to wake up to yesterday's TSLA shares stopped out, but going to move the stop at this point to just below the low of $181.92. Why? Because stopping at the open is a guaranteed loss well below the stop of $186. I'm going to give it a chance to double bottom off that $182 level and see if I can recapture a bit more of my value.
YesHoustonAg_2009 said:
Do we still like SNOW shares here? Buying more straight shares?
Could be. But what about 2004? It likely has a lot more do to with other forces than just elections. Gold and silver are going into the next leg of bull runs after long build ups.flashplayer said:
I feel like Covid had a lot more to do with the most recent upswing you mentioned. If you go back and look at 2012 and 2008 those years it didn't do very well during election cycles.
Yesterdays TSLA shares stopped.
Again I will repeat. When you get a chance for low risk high reward, you take it. You can lose 9 out of 10, but the one you hit can outpace all of the small losses by multiples. This one ended up hurting a little more as it broke the stop level significantly overnight. It happens.
Was it a smart trade in hindsight? Probably not. But I would still take it every time if the same setup arose.
Again I will repeat. When you get a chance for low risk high reward, you take it. You can lose 9 out of 10, but the one you hit can outpace all of the small losses by multiples. This one ended up hurting a little more as it broke the stop level significantly overnight. It happens.
Was it a smart trade in hindsight? Probably not. But I would still take it every time if the same setup arose.
Heineken-Ashi said:
Yesterdays TSLA shares stopped.
Again I will repeat. When you get a chance for low risk high reward, you take it. You can lose 9 out of 10, but the one you hit can outpace all of the small losses by multiples. This one ended up hurting a little more as it broke the stop level significantly overnight. It happens.
Was it a smart trade in hindsight? Probably not. But I would still take it every time if the same setup arose.
SNOW pushing closer to that $160 level
MARA resistance is $27 and as high as $29.65. If it can't take those out, potential for lower highs and lower lows taking it down.
$18-$20 range will be key support if it breaks lower. Below that, and $15-$16 starts to feel real good.
Heard this morning that yesterday's high volume might have been a large portion of that shelf offering being offloaded. $1.5M at yesterdays close prices would have been 58M shares and 119M shares traded yesterday. If that shelf is being offloaded now, it could be done in a matter of days instead of the months that would be normally expected.
$18-$20 range will be key support if it breaks lower. Below that, and $15-$16 starts to feel real good.
Heard this morning that yesterday's high volume might have been a large portion of that shelf offering being offloaded. $1.5M at yesterdays close prices would have been 58M shares and 119M shares traded yesterday. If that shelf is being offloaded now, it could be done in a matter of days instead of the months that would be normally expected.
ProgN said:Heineken-Ashi said:
Yesterdays TSLA shares stopped.
Again I will repeat. When you get a chance for low risk high reward, you take it. You can lose 9 out of 10, but the one you hit can outpace all of the small losses by multiples. This one ended up hurting a little more as it broke the stop level significantly overnight. It happens.
Was it a smart trade in hindsight? Probably not. But I would still take it every time if the same setup arose.
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