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Bonfire.1996
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3:55p, 2/24/24
Here is the bank liquidity chart, also known as the reverse repo market. This is the excess deposits on bank balance sheets that are not invested in bonds or loans.

Both bonds and loans are illiquid, meaning they have documented maturities. If a bank has to access liquidity to pay deposits that are leaving the bank, and they have none, like when this chart reaches $0, they have to offload loans or bond investments. If they offload them at a loss, the banks equity is reduced. If equity reductions trip capital ratios, the dominos begin to fall upon each other. Get it?

At current rates, EVERY LOAN AND BOND originated from 2008-2018 and 2020-mid 2022 is trading at a loss, right now. Thats a very large percentage of bank balance sheets.

I haven't looked, but I bet JPM, GS, BAC, C, and other mega banks are stockpiling cash to buy some regionals here when liquidity goes dry in April and rates don't drop till Summer.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/
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El_duderino
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4:01p, 2/24/24
AMD setting up an RSI bearish divergence on the daily. If it goes down through the $160 level, maybe tracks down to previous resistance of $150 or even $140.
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Ag CPA
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In reply to agdaddy04 • 4:49p, 2/24/24
AG
agdaddy04 said:
I've pulled a lot out into cash, still trying to think of what to do with my three largest - AMZN, TTD, and NVDA.
I'm starting to move back to cash too, great week but things are starting to get silly.
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ProgN
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 8:34p, 2/24/24
Philip J Fry said:
Roger. The SPY weekly MACD is looking like it's headed for a bearish crossover. Last time it did this at these levels, it ended up costing my 401K 20%. Since then, I've decided that I'm going to be more proactive with protecting my retirement. May pull a bit more cash out and reload the powder for a drop.
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Here's another reason why I loaded some SPY puts, especially with NVDA earnings in the rearview mirror.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Bonfire.1996 • 10:10p, 2/24/24
AG
Bonfire.1996 said:
Here is the bank liquidity chart, also known as the reverse repo market. This is the excess deposits on bank balance sheets that are not invested in bonds or loans.

Both bonds and loans are illiquid, meaning they have documented maturities. If a bank has to access liquidity to pay deposits that are leaving the bank, and they have none, like when this chart reaches $0, they have to offload loans or bond investments. If they offload them at a loss, the banks equity is reduced. If equity reductions trip capital ratios, the dominos begin to fall upon each other. Get it?

At current rates, EVERY LOAN AND BOND originated from 2008-2018 and 2020-mid 2022 is trading at a loss, right now. Thats a very large percentage of bank balance sheets.

I haven't looked, but I bet JPM, GS, BAC, C, and other mega banks are stockpiling cash to buy some regionals here when liquidity goes dry in April and rates don't drop till Summer.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/
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HoustonAg_2009
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In reply to Bonfire.1996 • 8:07p, 2/25/24
Do we still like owning/accumulating TFC and WAL?
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Brewmaster
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In reply to HoustonAg_2009 • 9:29p, 2/25/24
AG
HoustonAg_2009 said:
Do we still like owning/accumulating TFC and WAL?
those are regional banks correct? If so, they'd be the type I'd look to short or buy leap puts on. Sounds like March the **** could hit the fan and April the big boys could buy some regional banks for pennies on the dollar.
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ProgN
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In reply to HoustonAg_2009 • 9:38p, 2/25/24
HoustonAg_2009 said:
Do we still like owning/accumulating TFC and WAL?


I'd take profits before adding more because although both are strong, if some other regionals fail then they'll get hit as well. That's when you go back in but are able to use your profits to buy more shares at a lower price and ride it up.
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HoustonAg_2009
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In reply to ProgN • 9:59p, 2/25/24
I figured that be the thesis, but wanted to check in with you. Will do so.
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tlepoC
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10:37p, 2/25/24
AG
Anybody mind taking a look at the SNOW chart? I don't trust myself on this one
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to tlepoC • 10:53p, 2/25/24
tlepoC said:
Anybody mind taking a look at the SNOW chart? I don't trust myself on this one
Short term I see $240's. Long term (months - end of year) $270's. Could be a draw down in between. Not in a reliable place for me to feel comfortable risking. Should we see a dip to $165-$200 before another major move up, then its a buy for me.
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ProgN
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In reply to tlepoC • 10:59p, 2/25/24
tlepoC said:
Anybody mind taking a look at the SNOW chart? I don't trust myself on this one
Do you own it or looking to buy it and bet on their earnings on Wednesday? Their chart is in no man's land so it tells me nothing for what might happen with their earnings.
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Heineken-Ashi
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11:05p, 2/25/24
If overnight action doesn't move IWM above $200 or below $199, or RTY above $2020 or below $2011, I'll be looking at Feb 26 IWM $200 calls at the open tomorrow. Will engage if they can be had for $1.25 or less and looking for 2x on them.
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Bocephus
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12:21a, 2/26/24
AG
Reddit is supposed to IPO. I agree with the Apes on WSB that it's a good idea to short it
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
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El_duderino
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7:33a, 2/26/24
Acad earnings tomorrow. Trading a real narrow range all last week and RSI just below 50
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 7:51a, 2/26/24
AG
Boom
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Brian Earl Spilner
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8:39a, 2/26/24
AG
Another day, another ATH for BRK-B.
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AceAggie05
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8:44a, 2/26/24
AG
What's going on with PANW right now?
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 8:45a, 2/26/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
If overnight action doesn't move IWM above $200 or below $199, or RTY above $2020 or below $2011, I'll be looking at Feb 26 IWM $200 calls at the open tomorrow. Will engage if they can be had for $1.25 or less and looking for 2x on them.
In at $1.29 just after the open. Will be looking to sell at IWM $201.50. Would not be surprised to see a strong reversal down between there and low $202's.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:10a, 2/26/24
Sold half of IWM calls. Not going to take less than $2.00 for the remaining but hoping for $2.50.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:35a, 2/26/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
Sold half of IWM calls. Not going to take less than $2.00 for the remaining but hoping for $2.50.
all out on that first rip to 201.80's. Thanks chief!

so that was a bullish consolidation move (the premarket between levels)?
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lck90
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In reply to Brian Earl Spilner • 9:35a, 2/26/24
AG
That aged like milk
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:43a, 2/26/24
Brewmaster said:
Heineken-Ashi said:
Sold half of IWM calls. Not going to take less than $2.00 for the remaining but hoping for $2.50.
all out on that first rip to 201.80's. Thanks chief!

so that was a bullish consolidation move (the premarket between levels)?
It was the worst case scenario whether or bullish or bearish. When both directions point to an upper target before next decision point, you take that every day of the week.
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Number Monkey
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10:06a, 2/26/24
AG
For those who got in on REE last week, what's your sell point? I'm up over 7% and trying to figure out if there's even more upside.

ETA: And just like that, now it's 8%...
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to lck90 • 10:16a, 2/26/24
AG
lck90 said:
That aged like milk
Just another buying opportunity.
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tlh3842
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In reply to Number Monkey • 10:30a, 2/26/24
AG
Initial target was $9 when Heini threw it on the list. Not sure of his update if called out again on the thread last week
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agdaddy04
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10:31a, 2/26/24
AG
Are you guys thinking that TTD just had a nice earnings bump but people are still concerned about the new restrictions in their industry? Didn't act quick enough to sell at $90 so I've ridden it back to $80. Probably going back to $70 before it's back at $90?
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Number Monkey • 10:48a, 2/26/24
AG
Number Monkey said:
For those who got in on REE last week, what's your sell point? I'm up over 7% and trying to figure out if there's even more upside.

ETA: And just like that, now it's 8%...
it bounced nicely end of last week near support. I think Heine's stop is 5.45 ish. and he said as long as above 6.45, we're bullish. It is back above that now, so the $9 target should still be in play. You can always set stops higher as it moves up. You could now set your stop at break even.

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Number Monkey
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10:53a, 2/26/24
AG
Thanks for the input on REE, guys. Was thinking of raising my stop, so probably will.
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TheVarian
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11:03a, 2/26/24
AG



Interesting if true.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to Number Monkey • 11:13a, 2/26/24
Number Monkey said:
For those who got in on REE last week, what's your sell point? I'm up over 7% and trying to figure out if there's even more upside.

ETA: And just like that, now it's 8%...
I'm looking for $9-$10 to sell half. If it can hold over $8 from there, I think $11 can hit. Hard to see beyond that point. The lower trendline remains as stop.
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ProgN
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In reply to TheVarian • 11:16a, 2/26/24
TheVarian said:



Interesting if true.
It's true:

https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/
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CivilEng08
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In reply to ProgN • 11:45a, 2/26/24
It's actually even better than what the tweet says. She bought almost $1MM before earnings and then when it took a giant dump, she doubled down on another 20 calls last week.
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fightintxag13
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11:45a, 2/26/24
AG
Dang MARA is unstoppable today!
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MRB10
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In reply to fightintxag13 • 11:47a, 2/26/24
AG
BTC spot price is having a good day so far.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”

“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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