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24,637,294 Views | 233288 Replies | Last: 5 min ago by Dan Scott
texagbeliever
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Heineken-Ashi said:

texagbeliever said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Regarding BTC miners, saw this article today. It seems well researched and well reasoned. And you are supposed to come away with the conclusion that RIOT will be better than MARA moving forward.

Better Bitcoin Mining Stock: Riot or Marathon? (yahoo.com)

Now for what the author either doesn't know, or purposely left out.

If RIOTs actual cost to mine each btc is $2K, how did they lose $50M last quarter when BTC averaged $37K? Because they offset the energy credits against the mining costs to come up with $2K. But while shutting down mining to generate credits, they added absolutely 0 BTC to their HODL. So what good is cheap mining if you aren't keeping any BTC in a bull market?

MARA doesn't have the cheapest costs per BTC mined, but they constantly add to their market leading HODL and are constantly adding mining exposure in different parts of the world to diversify their cost exposure. RIOT on the other hand is a part time miner who shuts down from time to time to be able to offset their costs while not adding much to their HODL.

In this bull market, I want the miner with the best combination of strong balance sheet, best mining capabilities, most efficient mining capabilities, and least risk. MARA is that. RIOT is the most efficient, but it doesn't lead to a better balance sheet as they aren't effectively growing their assets in a bull market.
I think your point struggles with just one question: If BTC drops to $20k in value which stock will be more valuable? Now say instead it falls to $28k. Is that high enough or will creditors start calling out of fear of a further drop?

MARA has diversified but that means they have also aggressively created more exposure with higher costs. Meanwhile RIOT has a more sustainable long term approach to cornering the BTC market. If BTC were to take a significant dip, credit will be called very quickly on BTC operations. The last significant dip caused many institutions to be burned when the value dried up and the bank / business was left holding the underwater asset.


Valid argument. But MARA has more assets to offload in such an event should it need to raise capital. Significantly more, and growing. In a BTC bear market or huge price drop, you will get penalized most for the value of the BTC you own. If you don't own much, you will get hit hard, no matter your capability for future efficient operations.

And BTC mining is not a long term investible creature. I invest in miners during the bull runs and I get out as quick as I can before bear markets. These are not great companies that you pour money into and plan for long term growth. These are companies maximizing an opportunity that currently exists. The opportunity is thinning out by the second as each BTC mined gets closer to the final one. And with reward going down with every halving, your job is to add as much BTC to your balance sheet as quickly as possible. Because you will be valued based on the BTC in the future, not the method to extract it which will be gone. The costs are relevant, but not as relevant as the value of the coins which will swing wildly, but can ultimately only go up (If BTC holds and grows its adoption and value in public eye - if you dont believe BTC will stay relevant, then none of this should matter to you) due to the future of no new supply and constantly rising demand.
Maybe you are describing that it is better to buy MARA on short term plays while the market is in a bull pattern. Which I don't disagree with. They are best able to churn out greater gross margin.

That said if the question was a buy and hold or in a the market dips who would you want to then own, I think that answer is RIOT. Now I wouldn't want to buy and hold a BTC stock for much of the point you laid out. I just think a reasonable case could be made that RIOT won't leave you holding an entirely empty bag but it still will be deflated.

The bold part, I'm not sure i follow. The less BTC you own when the price drops the less impacted you are because relative to your physical assets you should be less leveraged as a portfolio. Assuming the BTC is being used as credit against those assets. A liquidation sale would likely bring pennies on the dollar and you will have many hands wanting to make sure they get their money first. Which is why I would see them as being more leveraged and thus more risky.
texagbeliever
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Looking at Earnings this week.

Walmart & Home Depot are before open Tuesday.
Walmart is an interesting one. I think as a low cost general retailer them beating expectation might mean more people are looking to save money. Will be interested if any movement happens around their announcement.

NVDA is Wednesday after market closes.
Heineken-Ashi
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I see your point, and I think a more detailed look at the balance sheets would be worthwhile. But don't overthink it. You are buying to be risk adverse in the event of a decline in BTC, either is going to painless. They will both tank with BTC. My strategy is purely from a position of maximizing the BTC bull run while miners can still be valuable and hugely profitable. And it's probably not a bad play to own both along with a handful of other quality miners (CLSK) and potentially
promising ones (CORZ, IREN).
ProgN
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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/19/capital-one-acquiring-discover-financial-services-report-says.html

HOLY SCHNIKES!!

Quote:

Capital One Financial
is set to acquire Discover Financial Services
, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. The deal could be announced Tuesday, the outlet said, citing sources.

It will be an all-stock deal and Capital One, which already uses Visa
and Mastercard
networks, plans to keep the Discover brand, the Wall Street Journal said.

"Discover has done a better job of bringing in a lot of deposits and [has] access to a lot of institutions to run the debit card network and provide service. So it gives them a lot of deposit gathering ability, which particularly in the current market is enormously important," said David Schiff, West Monroe's head of consumer retail and banking.

CNBC has reached out for comment from both Capital One and Discover.

The merger of the two companies, which are among the largest credit card issuers in the U.S., would expand Capital One's credit card offerings and its deposit base. The company bought digital concierge service Velocity Black, a premium credit card and luxury market platform, in June of last year.

There aren't many parallels for similar acquisitions in the financial industry, meaning that the Capital One-Discover deal will likely have broad implications for merger activity within the sector, said Schiff.

"It's a good example of the risk we're seeing in the market, where the competing interests from regulators for increased control and rigor balance against the competitive demands that are being made quite clearly, in terms of the overall market," Schiff said
techno-ag
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AG
Discover what's in your wallet.
Heineken-Ashi
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"Discover said its provision for credit losses was $1.9 billion in the fourth quarter, an increase of $1 billion from the previous year. The increase included a $305 million higher reserve build and a $717 million increase in net-charge offsdebt that a lender deems unlikely to be repaid."

And a funny comment I saw somewhere else..

What do you get one one subprime lender buys another subprime lender?

Optimus Prime
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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techno-ag said:

Discover what's in your wallet.


Trade mark this now!
Heineken-Ashi
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Quote:

As per the terms of the deal, Discover shareholders are slated to receive 1.0192 shares of Capital One for every share they hold, translating to a 26% premium over Discover's last closing price.
This puts DFS ever so slightly above it's previous high at $138, assuming no COF selloff.

Both of these companies were in for a world of trouble, so if you are in either one, I'd get out fast after this deal settles (maybe before). Current debt to equity on DFS 136% and COF 85%. Why do you think this was an all share deal? This is all about deposits. COF is buying liquidity and its still not enough.

The slow financial trainwreck is just starting to teeter on the edge of the tracks.
ravingfans
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

More of weekend reading kind of post. Many have asked what to do if we enter a serious stock market decline. Where do you put your money.

First, answer me this..

1. What happens if inflation doesn't come back down and starts to rise again?
2. What happens to bond demand if the market starts to believe it can hold out longer for potential higher rates in a year where we have record treasury supply coming up for auction?

When you can answer those, you will start to learn where your money should be in the short to medium term.


1. Powell/the Fed start raising rates again?
2. Short term maturity Bond demand would fall off in scenario 2 waiting for the future to give a better yield. The higher future yield would be due to the higher supply from the treasury selling more and more bonds to finance the national debt payments at a much steeper discount.

I still am confused what that means in terms of actions to take? Sit on cash and wait to buy treasury notes in the future 2H24? What if the unthinkable occurs and we default or more than likely simply give in and start printing money during the election year? Seems like hard assets such as land would be the best action then?

Is this why gates and the rest of the billionaire club are buying farmland at a record pace?
Heineken-Ashi
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ravingfans said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

More of weekend reading kind of post. Many have asked what to do if we enter a serious stock market decline. Where do you put your money.

First, answer me this..

1. What happens if inflation doesn't come back down and starts to rise again?
2. What happens to bond demand if the market starts to believe it can hold out longer for potential higher rates in a year where we have record treasury supply coming up for auction?

When you can answer those, you will start to learn where your money should be in the short to medium term.


1. Powell/the Fed start raising rates again?
2. Short term maturity Bond demand would fall off in scenario 2 waiting for the future to give a better yield. The higher future yield would be due to the higher supply from the treasury selling more and more bonds to finance the national debt payments at a much steeper discount.

I still am confused what that means in terms of actions to take? Sit on cash and wait to buy treasury notes in the future 2H24? What if the unthinkable occurs and we default or more than likely simply give in and start printing money during the election year? Seems like hard assets such as land would be the best action then?

Is this why gates and the rest of the billionaire club are buying farmland at a record pace?
Point is - cash will be king in a downturn. And in scenario 2, the bond market would crash. Only those who can afford to hold the entire duration will be unscathed, and that assumes the treasury has enough money to pay the interest they owe you. The buying opportunity for assets in your printing scenario only comes after the deflationary event has exhausted and prices have reset.

When assets are declining, the dollar is rising. You want your position to be in cash in the safest place possible. You don't want it tied up in bonds when the buying opportunity comes. You want it ready to deploy. Your position in metals and BTC should be your hedge in case they can't print. And while you can buy real estate now to hopefully take advantage of significantly higher prices upon the recovery, you could be waiting a long time if this isn't the quick government stimulated recovery we've grown accustomed to. As I've outlined numerous times, the FED and the government are in FAR worse position than at any other time in our lives that they would normally resort to printing. It is not a foregone conclusion that a post 2008 type of recovery will happen. Like I stated in one of my weekend readings, this could very well be the time that everyone rushes in to buy the bottom and it only makes things worse as the bottom keeps dropping out. Ray Dalio really did spell it out in the simplest way possible 10 years ago. How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio (youtube.com)
Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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Anyone get themselves into TSLA puts?
bhanacik
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Got stopped on MLCO at 8.35. Will watch for possible re-entry or potential failure
ProgN
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I'm re-entering NNOX for a trade right here


ETA: filled at $9.64
Charismatic Megafauna
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oldarmy1 said:

I was fishing today. Got back to my office, logged into the computer, took a look at the 15 minute chart and we were at $500.50. Immediately told members I was buying $498 Puts for Monday and then a 4:2 ratio of Puts to calls. We ended with 5 $498 Puts to every 1 $500 call for Monday. Really squeezed the box down tight, since we are right at the two most key technicals at $499.

Well i guess that worked out!

Wish i would have reloaded the smci puts, just bought fsly weekly $15 calls
Josepi
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AG
You think NNOX will rise tomorrow based on NVDA earnings?
TheVarian
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ProgN
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Josepi said:

You think NNOX will rise tomorrow based on NVDA earnings?
I'm just looking for a swing. I did it Friday from $10 to $13. Volume is still heavy on it and that means a lot of eyes are watching it. I'm just planning to ride a wave
AgEng06
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AG
ProgN said:

Josepi said:

You think NNOX will rise tomorrow based on NVDA earnings?
I'm just looking for a swing. I did it Friday from $10 to $13. Volume is still heavy on it and that means a lot of eyes are watching it. I'm just planning to ride a wave


Do you have a stop and target plan? I'm not buying yet, but looking to follow along and learn some of these trades.
ProgN
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I don't have a stop in and i'll start watching it closely after it hits $11 and decide when to sell
Brewmaster
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AG
I think I'll add more BIG and FUBO, FUBO has some nice volume. setting a pretty tight stop on both though.

bought some FLWS too, Heineken's stop was 9.15, looks super strong on a crap day. in at $10.
AgEng06
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AG
Appreciate the reply.
bmoochie
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AG
I did the same except I sold wayyyyyy to early at $10.33
agdaddy04
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AG
NVDA getting hammered right now. Is this a sign of what their earnings report will show?
SoTXAg09
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AG
agdaddy04 said:

NVDA getting hammered right now. Is this a sign of what their earnings report will show?

More likely just the typical ending to a parabolic move.
Talon2DSO
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AG
Brewmaster said:

I think I'll add more BIG and FUBO, FUBO has some nice volume. setting a pretty tight stop on both though.

bought some FLWS too, Heineken's stop was 9.15, looks super strong on a crap day. in at $10.


I added more BIG as well at 4.34.
ProgN
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bmoochie said:

I did the same except I sold wayyyyyy to early at $10.33


Do you uses TOS intraday charts on your split monitor at work?
bmoochie
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AG
I have two screens so typically chart on one and work on the other.

I still use E*trade mostly (booooo i know) but that's because I am still most comfortable with it as its how I started. I trade through IBKR and haven't fully learned and gotten used to the charts there. As you see, that's why i don't day trade really and usually swing or shares because I am using two platforms. Eventually I will take the time to dive into it more and get better with IBKR.
Heineken-Ashi
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If MARA can hold here it could go mid $30's next. Otherwise, and we watch the very critical $20 area.
BlueTaze
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Anyone like JD? Chinese retailer/supply chain company crushed lately, now more cash on hand than market cap.

Michael Berry reported a sizable chunk in his 13F so likely holding at much higher price. Looks like 15-20 is support range going back 10 years.

It's China, so some suspect bookkeeping, but maybe worth a roll of dice around $20.
ProgN
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bmoochie said:

I have two screens so typically chart on one and work on the other.

I still use E*trade mostly (booooo i know) but that's because I am still most comfortable with it as its how I started. I trade through IBKR and haven't fully learned and gotten used to the charts there. As you see, that's why i don't day trade really and usually swing or shares because I am using two platforms. Eventually I will take the time to dive into it more and get better with IBKR.
I use 5D 5m intraday with volume, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic for my enter/exit decisions on TOS
ProgN
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GCT just added to my focus list for greater attention. I don't know why they're getting crushed today yet, so this is only due to their price.
Brewmaster
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AG
February double bottom coming? I think that's what the seasonality chart looks like.
this one's a little different than the chart I'm thinking of, but...

HoustonAg2014
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AG
Is the February the 2? or am I reading this wrong because I see the 2004 to 2024 written on the chart but there aren't 20 years. Just trying to wrap my head around what was posted.

Thanks for sharing this.
Brewmaster
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AG
yeah Feb should be the 2, and 20 years as in the line itself is a 20 year average.
Heineken-Ashi
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LUMN has all the pieces in place to go grab $2.20. Stop just below recent low $1.49.
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