Heineken-Ashi said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Ok since it's the weekend, i was playing free blackjack at a company thing and since I'm a degenerate and it was free i split something dumb and this dude at the table got on me with that "hey man you're stealing his cards" silliness. Now you guys, who i have come to believe are intelligent, logical dudes who have a decent understanding of probabilities, are talking about it. You're saying that in a multi deck game, you honestly believe that me taking an extra card (or two or 3) by splitting does anything to materially change what the following card or two or three will do for your hand?

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In a single deck game, I'd be pissed if you hit a 16 with the dealer showing a 5 and ended up getting an ace or face card. Or if you split something stupid.

In a multi-deck game, ya, you might take a couple good cards out of the deck, but it doesn't bother me as much.

My strategy is simple. The goal is minimize losses and maximize winnings. Booking profits and letting winners run.

Sit down at the table. Figure out what your personal minimum will be and don't waver from that. Place your min bet. Once you win 3 in a row, you are on a streak. If you are playing $10 hands, you are $30 in the green. Add a chip. If you win, you're $50 in the green. Add a chip. Win, you're $80 in the green. Add a chip. If you win this one, you've booked $120. Pocket it and go back to your starting balance and drop back to minimum bet. Streaks in BJ come to an end and winning more than 6 in a row is extremely rare.

With this strategy, double and splits can be costly, but you are usually getting the chance with house money to use. If you win them, they are extremely profitable. And if at any point within the max 6 hand winning streak you lose the original hand (50% on a split doesn't count), you go back to the min bet. 21 is pure icing on the cake in all of these situations.

And if the table is cold, you came in with a set amount of money to spend. When it's gone it's gone. Can't win them all. But using the 10x of min bet threshold to determine your going in balance, it's pretty hard to lose out if you aren't playing silly or making stupid choices. Tables go from hot to cold all the time. Trying to pick a hot table and jump around when they go cold to new tables.. it's taxing and frankly not fun. Employ this strategy and you will profit immensely when it's hot and lose the minimum when its cold.

Lastly, if you hit 15's and 16's, you ALWAYS hit them unless dealer is showing 2-6. Don't mix up your strategy. Be consistent.

---

Unless you're counting, even simple strategy that requires very little attention and skill. If a deck is heavy in one direction or the other it absolutely changes strategy. If it's a new shoe, play standard strategy, and consistent. But as the deck changes then strategy should shift with it. Including when to hit or stay, and how big your bet is. The parallels to trading strategy is actually a very good comparison.

Enzomatic said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Ok since it's the weekend, i was playing free blackjack at a company thing and since I'm a degenerate and it was free i split something dumb and this dude at the table got on me with that "hey man you're stealing his cards" silliness. Now you guys, who i have come to believe are intelligent, logical dudes who have a decent understanding of probabilities, are talking about it. You're saying that in a multi deck game, you honestly believe that me taking an extra card (or two or 3) by splitting does anything to materially change what the following card or two or three will do for your hand?

---

In a single deck game, I'd be pissed if you hit a 16 with the dealer showing a 5 and ended up getting an ace or face card. Or if you split something stupid.

In a multi-deck game, ya, you might take a couple good cards out of the deck, but it doesn't bother me as much.

My strategy is simple. The goal is minimize losses and maximize winnings. Booking profits and letting winners run.

Sit down at the table. Figure out what your personal minimum will be and don't waver from that. Place your min bet. Once you win 3 in a row, you are on a streak. If you are playing $10 hands, you are $30 in the green. Add a chip. If you win, you're $50 in the green. Add a chip. Win, you're $80 in the green. Add a chip. If you win this one, you've booked $120. Pocket it and go back to your starting balance and drop back to minimum bet. Streaks in BJ come to an end and winning more than 6 in a row is extremely rare.

With this strategy, double and splits can be costly, but you are usually getting the chance with house money to use. If you win them, they are extremely profitable. And if at any point within the max 6 hand winning streak you lose the original hand (50% on a split doesn't count), you go back to the min bet. 21 is pure icing on the cake in all of these situations.

And if the table is cold, you came in with a set amount of money to spend. When it's gone it's gone. Can't win them all. But using the 10x of min bet threshold to determine your going in balance, it's pretty hard to lose out if you aren't playing silly or making stupid choices. Tables go from hot to cold all the time. Trying to pick a hot table and jump around when they go cold to new tables.. it's taxing and frankly not fun. Employ this strategy and you will profit immensely when it's hot and lose the minimum when its cold.

Lastly, if you hit 15's and 16's, you ALWAYS hit them unless dealer is showing 2-6. Don't mix up your strategy. Be consistent.

---

Unless you're counting, even simple strategy that requires very little attention and skill. If a deck is heavy in one direction or the other it absolutely changes strategy. If it's a new shoe, play standard strategy, and consistent. But as the deck changes then strategy should shift with it. Including when to hit or stay, and how big your bet is. The parallels to trading strategy is actually a very good comparison.

---

Oh there's a lot of nuance. New shoe = back to minimum. Whether counting or just basic awareness, if deck gets heavy, you can absolutely move back to minimum. You still have to play smart and within the odds. But the whole point is to build up house money and play with that, constantly booking gains and weathering rough patches.

It's worked extremely well for me. And if I'm at a place multiple days, my minimums are usually rising each day as I book more gains.

ProgN said:

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I bleed maroon said:

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ProgN said:

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Chef Elko said:

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Any craps players here? That game is my jam

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That's the only game I play!

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Really the only game to play in a casino if you understand math (lose less money over time than any other game), Card-counters at BlackJack and Inside Info sports betters excluded. It's by far the most fun and interactive experience, as well.

I play the pass line, and then a couple come bets, always with full odds. Then a few 6 and 8 place bets if I feel like it. Theoretical loss is less than 1% of amounts bet. BJ is 2%ish, Video poker can be 2%ish, Roulette 5%+, Slots 7-10%.

You?

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I only play craps and I play it all, except the Field bets because it's a sucker's bet. I even play them little dollar bet MFers in the middle of the table. Last time I was in Vegas, I put $2 for the dealers that pays huge but you have to roll all the numbers. I always have the dealers play with me with my tip. They like it, especially that night because I hit all 12 numbers and they got paid off that $2 bet. The whole table erupted, including the pit boss and dealers. It was fun. If the table is hot, I play the pass, 5,6,8,9 with odds. If it goes cold, I'll lay the 4 and 10. I banked one night just laying the 4 and 10 but you can't celebrate because everyone loses as you rake in chips.

Craps has the best odds in the house and the constant action and different ways to bet are perfect for my ADHD ass.

---

I fell in love with the team-like play, funky routines and countless ways to bet. I play craps probably 90% of the time and 5% blackjack and 5% slots. Glad to see some craps players but I expect the trading thread to be damn near all blackjack players haha.

My go to setup is pass line with odds, place the 6/8 with a few bucks on hard 6 and hard 8 then a few bucks on All Tall Small. But shooooot maaaaan, everywhere I go now is $25 min so I can't have the fun I want to have, hate having $100+ out on the table at once. Don't even get me started on all the BS triple 0 roulette and 6/5 blackjack.

Slowly getting my friends on board and every now and then we mob up on a table. More fun than taking over a blackjack table IMO.

I like bubble craps for trying new strategies and I like this one. If you like selling options way OTM and pick up Pennie's in front of a steamroller, this is for you.

Enzomatic said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Charismatic Megafauna said:

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Ok since it's the weekend, i was playing free blackjack at a company thing and since I'm a degenerate and it was free i split something dumb and this dude at the table got on me with that "hey man you're stealing his cards" silliness. Now you guys, who i have come to believe are intelligent, logical dudes who have a decent understanding of probabilities, are talking about it. You're saying that in a multi deck game, you honestly believe that me taking an extra card (or two or 3) by splitting does anything to materially change what the following card or two or three will do for your hand?

---

In a single deck game, I'd be pissed if you hit a 16 with the dealer showing a 5 and ended up getting an ace or face card. Or if you split something stupid.

In a multi-deck game, ya, you might take a couple good cards out of the deck, but it doesn't bother me as much.

My strategy is simple. The goal is minimize losses and maximize winnings. Booking profits and letting winners run.

Sit down at the table. Figure out what your personal minimum will be and don't waver from that. Place your min bet. Once you win 3 in a row, you are on a streak. If you are playing $10 hands, you are $30 in the green. Add a chip. If you win, you're $50 in the green. Add a chip. Win, you're $80 in the green. Add a chip. If you win this one, you've booked $120. Pocket it and go back to your starting balance and drop back to minimum bet. Streaks in BJ come to an end and winning more than 6 in a row is extremely rare.

With this strategy, double and splits can be costly, but you are usually getting the chance with house money to use. If you win them, they are extremely profitable. And if at any point within the max 6 hand winning streak you lose the original hand (50% on a split doesn't count), you go back to the min bet. 21 is pure icing on the cake in all of these situations.

And if the table is cold, you came in with a set amount of money to spend. When it's gone it's gone. Can't win them all. But using the 10x of min bet threshold to determine your going in balance, it's pretty hard to lose out if you aren't playing silly or making stupid choices. Tables go from hot to cold all the time. Trying to pick a hot table and jump around when they go cold to new tables.. it's taxing and frankly not fun. Employ this strategy and you will profit immensely when it's hot and lose the minimum when its cold.

Lastly, if you hit 15's and 16's, you ALWAYS hit them unless dealer is showing 2-6. Don't mix up your strategy. Be consistent.

---

Unless you're counting, even simple strategy that requires very little attention and skill. If a deck is heavy in one direction or the other it absolutely changes strategy. If it's a new shoe, play standard strategy, and consistent. But as the deck changes then strategy should shift with it. Including when to hit or stay, and how big your bet is. The parallels to trading strategy is actually a very good comparison.

---

So in trading, how do you know when the "deck" is heavy in one direction or the other? Is that the volume, or before/after hours results somehow?

Man y'all are some degenerates! Let's all go to Vegas! I'll even play by your rules!

I bleed maroon said:

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ProgN said:

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Chef Elko said:

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Any craps players here? That game is my jam

---

That's the only game I play!

---

Really the only game to play in a casino if you understand math (lose less money over time than any other game), Card-counters at BlackJack and Inside Info sports betters excluded. It's by far the most fun and interactive experience, as well.

I play the pass line, and then a couple come bets, always with full odds. Then a few 6 and 8 place bets if I feel like it. Theoretical loss is less than 1% of amounts bet. BJ is 2%ish, Video poker can be 2%ish, Roulette 5%+, Slots 7-10%.

You?

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If I don't know you, pass, come, come. If I know you, I play the iron cross. Press on anything that's hit twice with a hot roller.

Bocephus said:

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I bleed maroon said:

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ProgN said:

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Chef Elko said:

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Any craps players here? That game is my jam

---

That's the only game I play!

---

Really the only game to play in a casino if you understand math (lose less money over time than any other game), Card-counters at BlackJack and Inside Info sports betters excluded. It's by far the most fun and interactive experience, as well.

I play the pass line, and then a couple come bets, always with full odds. Then a few 6 and 8 place bets if I feel like it. Theoretical loss is less than 1% of amounts bet. BJ is 2%ish, Video poker can be 2%ish, Roulette 5%+, Slots 7-10%.

You?

---

If I don't know you, pass, come, come. If I know you, I play the iron cross. Press on anything that's hit twice with a hot roller.

---

I don't think I know you, but...

I'm not a fan of the iron cross, but lately, I do press my pass line bet by $5 for each point the shooter hits. It's a way to ease into a potentially hot roll without ruining your bankroll (and keeps me and the dealers sharp at math). This works great at a $10 or $15 table, but they give you strange looks at a $25 minimum game. Like "What's the Red Doing on Our Lovely Green Table?". I miss $2 tables with 100x odds (Casino Royale spoiled me, in the old days).

My ideal game in today's Vegas is a $10 table with 10x Odds. There are a few around, especially on non-weekend days, mainly downtown.

By the way, once I double my initial buy-in, I gradually put half of it in my pocket (box men don't like this), and then incrementally put another 25% or more of my subsequent winnings away in the not-to-be-touched this session category (only green and sometimes black chips). If I quickly lose my buy-in, I walk away and do something boring, like blackjack, slots, or bubble craps. I occasionally mix in eating an overpriced meal, as well.

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

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Ragoo said:

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Casino Royale was the best

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Relevant but not really

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Yeah, this place was nothing like the movie. Or any movie. Sorry.

Incidentally, they closed their live craps tables completely 3-4 years ago, so they lost me as a customer. I think it's finally going to be put out of its misery and redeveloped soon.

I bleed maroon said:

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Bocephus said:

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I bleed maroon said:

---

ProgN said:

---

Chef Elko said:

---

Any craps players here? That game is my jam

---

That's the only game I play!

---

Really the only game to play in a casino if you understand math (lose less money over time than any other game), Card-counters at BlackJack and Inside Info sports betters excluded. It's by far the most fun and interactive experience, as well.

I play the pass line, and then a couple come bets, always with full odds. Then a few 6 and 8 place bets if I feel like it. Theoretical loss is less than 1% of amounts bet. BJ is 2%ish, Video poker can be 2%ish, Roulette 5%+, Slots 7-10%.

You?

---

If I don't know you, pass, come, come. If I know you, I play the iron cross. Press on anything that's hit twice with a hot roller.

---

I don't think I know you, but...

I'm not a fan of the iron cross, but lately, I do press my pass line bet by $5 for each point the shooter hits. It's a way to ease into a potentially hot roll without ruining your bankroll (and keeps me and the dealers sharp at math). This works great at a $10 or $15 table, but they give you strange looks at a $25 minimum game. Like "What's the Red Doing on Our Lovely Green Table?". I miss $2 tables with 100x odds (Casino Royale spoiled me, in the old days).

My ideal game in today's Vegas is a $10 table with 10x Odds. There are a few around, especially on non-weekend days, mainly downtown.

By the way, once I double my initial buy-in, I gradually put half of it in my pocket (box men don't like this), and then incrementally put another 25% or more of my subsequent winnings away in the not-to-be-touched this session category (only green and sometimes black chips). If I quickly lose my buy-in, I walk away and do something boring, like blackjack, slots, or bubble craps. I occasionally mix in eating an overpriced meal, as well.

---

There are a couple of shooters I recognize and I'll double and triple my pass odds with them. If it goes bad, I go find something to bet on at the sports book.

Why are the markets closed for Washingtons birthday?

I mean, I don't think I've ever met a single person that celebrates this day.

Andrew Dufresne said:

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Why are the markets closed for Washingtons birthday?

I mean, I don't think I've ever met a single person that celebrates this day.

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Gubmint likes their holidays. Post office is closed too

Apparently a lot of people take off and kids are out of school. Zero traffic on the roads this morning.

agdaddy04 said:

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Apparently a lot of people take off and kids are out of school. Zero traffic on the roads this morning.

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There was traffic in Dallas. Audelia exit was even more backed up today than usual

Andrew Dufresne said:

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Why are the markets closed for Washingtons birthday?

I mean, I don't think I've ever met a single person that celebrates this day.

---

A&M wasn't closed for Presidents' Day when I went (15 years ago), but apparently Boise state and other schools are closed now. And my friend in Spokane was insistent that she couldn't call her vet until tomorrow because she was convinced everything was closed today. I had to explain that real businesses are open and to try today.

When did people start seeing this as a "holiday?" Aside from sales at stores, obviously. Feels very recent, but I've never known anyone who actually takes the day off or even realizes it's a holiday. Or is that just me…?

Banks are closed today.

Schools closed (some)

Enzomatic said:

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Andrew Dufresne said:

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Why are the markets closed for Washingtons birthday?

I mean, I don't think I've ever met a single person that celebrates this day.

---

A&M wasn't closed for Presidents' Day when I went (15 years ago), but apparently Boise state and other schools are closed now. And my friend in Spokane was insistent that she couldn't call her vet until tomorrow because she was convinced everything was closed today. I had to explain that real businesses are open and to try today.

When did people start seeing this as a "holiday?" Aside from sales at stores, obviously. Feels very recent, but I've never known anyone who actually takes the day off or even realizes it's a holiday. Or is that just me…?

---

Pretty recent:

It is often celebrated to honor all those who served as presidents of the United States and, since 1879,has been the federal holiday honoring Founding Father George Washington, who led the Continental Army to victory in the American Revolutionary War, presided at the Constitutional Convention of 1787, and was the first U.S. president.[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidents%27_Day#cite_note-1][1][/url]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidents%27_Day

More of weekend reading kind of post. Many have asked what to do if we enter a serious stock market decline. Where do you put your money.

First, answer me this..

1. What happens if inflation doesn't come back down and starts to rise again?
2. What happens to bond demand if the market starts to believe it can hold out longer for potential higher rates in a year where we have record treasury supply coming up for auction?

When you can answer those, you will start to learn where your money should be in the short to medium term.

Regarding BTC miners, saw this article today. It seems well researched and well reasoned. And you are supposed to come away with the conclusion that RIOT will be better than MARA moving forward.

Better Bitcoin Mining Stock: Riot or Marathon? (yahoo.com)

Now for what the author either doesn't know, or purposely left out.

If RIOTs actual cost to mine each btc is $2K, how did they lose $50M last quarter when BTC averaged $37K? Because they offset the energy credits against the mining costs to come up with $2K. But while shutting down mining to generate credits, they added absolutely 0 BTC to their HODL. So what good is cheap mining if you aren't keeping any BTC in a bull market?

MARA doesn't have the cheapest costs per BTC mined, but they constantly add to their market leading HODL and are constantly adding mining exposure in different parts of the world to diversify their cost exposure. RIOT on the other hand is a part time miner who shuts down from time to time to be able to offset their costs while not adding much to their HODL.

In this bull market, I want the miner with the best combination of strong balance sheet, best mining capabilities, most efficient mining capabilities, and least risk. MARA is that. RIOT is the most efficient, but it doesn't lead to a better balance sheet as they aren't effectively growing their assets in a bull market.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Regarding BTC miners, saw this article today. It seems well researched and well reasoned. And you are supposed to come away with the conclusion that RIOT will be better than MARA moving forward.

Better Bitcoin Mining Stock: Riot or Marathon? (yahoo.com)

Now for what the author either doesn't know, or purposely left out.

If RIOTs actual cost to mine each btc is $2K, how did they lose $50M last quarter when BTC averaged $37K? Because they offset the energy credits against the mining costs to come up with $2K. But while shutting down mining to generate credits, they added absolutely 0 BTC to their HODL. So what good is cheap mining if you aren't keeping any BTC in a bull market?

MARA doesn't have the cheapest costs per BTC mined, but they constantly add to their market leading HODL and are constantly adding mining exposure in different parts of the world to diversify their cost exposure. RIOT on the other hand is a part time miner who shuts down from time to time to be able to offset their costs while not adding much to their HODL.

In this bull market, I want the miner with the best combination of strong balance sheet, best mining capabilities, most efficient mining capabilities, and least risk. MARA is that. RIOT is the most efficient, but it doesn't lead to a better balance sheet as they aren't effectively growing their assets in a bull market.

---

I think your point struggles with just one question: If BTC drops to $20k in value which stock will be more valuable? Now say instead it falls to $28k. Is that high enough or will creditors start calling out of fear of a further drop?

MARA has diversified but that means they have also aggressively created more exposure with higher costs. Meanwhile RIOT has a more sustainable long term approach to cornering the BTC market. If BTC were to take a significant dip, credit will be called very quickly on BTC operations. The last significant dip caused many institutions to be burned when the value dried up and the bank / business was left holding the underwater asset.

texagbeliever said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Regarding BTC miners, saw this article today. It seems well researched and well reasoned. And you are supposed to come away with the conclusion that RIOT will be better than MARA moving forward.

Better Bitcoin Mining Stock: Riot or Marathon? (yahoo.com)

Now for what the author either doesn't know, or purposely left out.

If RIOTs actual cost to mine each btc is $2K, how did they lose $50M last quarter when BTC averaged $37K? Because they offset the energy credits against the mining costs to come up with $2K. But while shutting down mining to generate credits, they added absolutely 0 BTC to their HODL. So what good is cheap mining if you aren't keeping any BTC in a bull market?

MARA doesn't have the cheapest costs per BTC mined, but they constantly add to their market leading HODL and are constantly adding mining exposure in different parts of the world to diversify their cost exposure. RIOT on the other hand is a part time miner who shuts down from time to time to be able to offset their costs while not adding much to their HODL.

In this bull market, I want the miner with the best combination of strong balance sheet, best mining capabilities, most efficient mining capabilities, and least risk. MARA is that. RIOT is the most efficient, but it doesn't lead to a better balance sheet as they aren't effectively growing their assets in a bull market.

---

I think your point struggles with just one question: If BTC drops to $20k in value which stock will be more valuable? Now say instead it falls to $28k. Is that high enough or will creditors start calling out of fear of a further drop?

MARA has diversified but that means they have also aggressively created more exposure with higher costs. Meanwhile RIOT has a more sustainable long term approach to cornering the BTC market. If BTC were to take a significant dip, credit will be called very quickly on BTC operations. The last significant dip caused many institutions to be burned when the value dried up and the bank / business was left holding the underwater asset.

---

Valid argument. But MARA has more assets to offload in such an event should it need to raise capital. Significantly more, and growing. In a BTC bear market or huge price drop, you will get penalized most for the value of the BTC you own. If you don't own much, you will get hit hard, no matter your capability for future efficient operations.

And BTC mining is not a long term investible creature. I invest in miners during the bull runs and I get out as quick as I can before bear markets. These are not great companies that you pour money into and plan for long term growth. These are companies maximizing an opportunity that currently exists. The opportunity is thinning out by the second as each BTC mined gets closer to the final one. And with reward going down with every halving, your job is to add as much BTC to your balance sheet as quickly as possible. Because you will be valued based on the BTC in the future, not the method to extract it which will be gone. The costs are relevant, but not as relevant as the value of the coins which will swing wildly, but can ultimately only go up (If BTC holds and grows its adoption and value in public eye - if you dont believe BTC will stay relevant, then none of this should matter to you) due to the future of no new supply and constantly rising demand.