Charismatic Megafauna said:
I love when i spot the same things that the smart guys here do, even if the way they act on it is smarterer
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Last: 2 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
I feel like I'm in the company of a group of Einstein's while I stand to the side taking notes
I double dog dare someone on this thread to sell a SMCI straddle for next week 
(look at those premiums!!!!)
(look at those premiums!!!!)
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Y'all have a great long weekend!
That's because NVDA's earnings on Thursday is going swing SMCI, up or down, worse than Thor did Rabbit.EnronAg said:
I double dog dare someone on this thread to sell a SMCI straddle for next week
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Results from "just another guy hustling a service"...."Options trading is impossible to do successfully"
Scott didn't include several SPX put trades that went 300%+. Also I want a re-grading on the UPS trade. Yes, we bought on Monday and it lost a technical support level. Yes we doubled down. But the doubled down doubled to exit and reduce the initial price down 30% and then I told people to short it above $148.90, because I selected the strike due to being a technical resistance point. So the trade was intended to move up more quickly and exit into the $149. As it turned out the stock finally engaged and reached above $148.90 to short 50% shares against the calls. Took half off up $0.50 twice and sold all of it the 3rd trip down at $148. The net gains were better than what the calll was targeted to achieve.
Scott?!
Scott didn't include several SPX put trades that went 300%+. Also I want a re-grading on the UPS trade. Yes, we bought on Monday and it lost a technical support level. Yes we doubled down. But the doubled down doubled to exit and reduce the initial price down 30% and then I told people to short it above $148.90, because I selected the strike due to being a technical resistance point. So the trade was intended to move up more quickly and exit into the $149. As it turned out the stock finally engaged and reached above $148.90 to short 50% shares against the calls. Took half off up $0.50 twice and sold all of it the 3rd trip down at $148. The net gains were better than what the calll was targeted to achieve.
Scott?!
You SCMI guys don't let this happen to you...
$SMCI Oh no... pic.twitter.com/rQpFEx8SMP
— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) February 16, 2024
They aren't called degenerates for nothing
This is why I don't allow myself to trade with options.
Everyone that struggles with FOMO and just have to hit it big like "everyone else" needs to screenshot this and print it out in color. Then frame it and put it next to your computer screen. This is how you blow up your accounts and if married, get served divorce papers by your former soulmate.AgEng06 said:
You SCMI guys don't let this happen to you...$SMCI Oh no... pic.twitter.com/rQpFEx8SMP
— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) February 16, 2024
This dumb**** had it all figured out. He abandoned discipline and pushed all in and gambled, and lost. Imagine what your life would be like and how you'd feel, FEEL his pain right now and learn from his dumbass mistake. There's no explaining that to your spouse, your kids, your parents, your friends, your employer, or your bank when you try to get a loan.
That's why more experienced folks like Heineken, myself and others stress staying true to your discipline because we'd hate seeing someone here posting something like this. He gambled his life and lost today because he just knew he SMCI would close near $1200 and he'd bank.
I feel for him and I hope he overcomes it and doesn't harm himself. That's not hyperbole either.
Just WOW!
A tale as old as timeBonfire.1996 said:
SMCI buyers beware. This buy the dip area is where retail FOMO investors have historically gotten crushed.
A macro correction, which is way overdue, is the time to buy SMCI, not these intraday dips when the market is reacting to monthly PPI reporting and treasury rates.
This will be everyone on this thread when we deem it's time to buy SMCI again…
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/72283611/TradingPlaces_ParamountPictures__1_.0.jpg)
Philip J Fry said:
This is why I don't allow myself to trade with options.
That's ridiculous. Just don't be stupid like this dumbass. $70k in SMCI options? Even if you find a setup you like, unless that's 10% or less of your total portfolio, you're an idiot to do that on a stock that was clearly being driven far above its reasonable value.
I preach it time and again. Stop falling into the traps of emotion. Risk management is key. When I take a flyer on something, it's with less than 1% of my account and less.
I will say this one last time. You WILL NOT get rich quick with the stock market.
Did a guy come on here recently with a 100 bagger? Yup. That's AMAZING. And massive kudos to him. But you know what he likely didn't do? Put a years worth of salary in to get it.
Are there plays where we hope to hit it big. Absolutely! But if you don't have a plan and risk management, you WILL lose more than you win. Why do you think I mention a stop on every single idea I bring to this thread? And on options, you know that premium paid is your stop.
What you should be doing is developing a personal strategy to identify good setups with high reward and low risk. The winners will make up for the losers and your account will grow. And just like in blackjack, you will come across times when you are betting with house money on high probability winners and might even get a chance to double down. The odds are in your favor. But never ever ever ****ing double down when your hand is 16. Stay consistent and play the smart hand.
Did a guy come on here recently with a 100 bagger? Yup. That's AMAZING. And massive kudos to him. But you know what he likely didn't do? Put a years worth of salary in to get it.
Are there plays where we hope to hit it big. Absolutely! But if you don't have a plan and risk management, you WILL lose more than you win. Why do you think I mention a stop on every single idea I bring to this thread? And on options, you know that premium paid is your stop.
What you should be doing is developing a personal strategy to identify good setups with high reward and low risk. The winners will make up for the losers and your account will grow. And just like in blackjack, you will come across times when you are betting with house money on high probability winners and might even get a chance to double down. The odds are in your favor. But never ever ever ****ing double down when your hand is 16. Stay consistent and play the smart hand.
Oof!
Heineken-Ashi said:
And just like in blackjack, you will come across times when you are betting with house money on high probability winners and might even get a chance to double down. The odds are in your favor. But never ever ever ****ing double down when your hand is 16. Stay consistent and play the smart hand.
I'm more of a splitting 10s guy myself
I did once when hammered at 3 am on a major heater. And it worked. And I've never done it again.bmoochie said:Heineken-Ashi said:
And just like in blackjack, you will come across times when you are betting with house money on high probability winners and might even get a chance to double down. The odds are in your favor. But never ever ever ****ing double down when your hand is 16. Stay consistent and play the smart hand.
I'm more of a splitting 10s guy myself
Heineken-Ashi said:I did once when hammered at 3 am on a major heater. And it worked. And I've never done it again.bmoochie said:Heineken-Ashi said:
And just like in blackjack, you will come across times when you are betting with house money on high probability winners and might even get a chance to double down. The odds are in your favor. But never ever ever ****ing double down when your hand is 16. Stay consistent and play the smart hand.
I'm more of a splitting 10s guy myself
My second cousin sits on 3rd base and always does it. My father will not play at his table
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
We appreciate what you do for us Prog! And I'm sort of glad you missed on FSLY…… there was a minute where I thought you weren't human!!
I used to play the corner bases and bail on a table when people didn't do their job. I've found over time that my strategy doesn't need people playing by the rules. But just like with trading, it requires time at the table and strict discipline to the method. The only home runs are on doubles and splits. Otherwise, its a methodical grind up.Bocephus said:Heineken-Ashi said:I did once when hammered at 3 am on a major heater. And it worked. And I've never done it again.bmoochie said:Heineken-Ashi said:
And just like in blackjack, you will come across times when you are betting with house money on high probability winners and might even get a chance to double down. The odds are in your favor. But never ever ever ****ing double down when your hand is 16. Stay consistent and play the smart hand.
I'm more of a splitting 10s guy myself
My second cousin sits on 3rd base and always does it. My father will not play at his table
Heineken-Ashi said:I did once when hammered at 3 am on a major heater. And it worked. And I've never done it again.bmoochie said:Heineken-Ashi said:
And just like in blackjack, you will come across times when you are betting with house money on high probability winners and might even get a chance to double down. The odds are in your favor. But never ever ever ****ing double down when your hand is 16. Stay consistent and play the smart hand.
I'm more of a splitting 10s guy myself
$3/hand black jack in North Dakota is the place to split tens
Heineken-Ashi said:I used to play the corner bases and bail on a table when people didn't do their job. I've found over time that my strategy doesn't need people playing by the rules. But just like with trading, it requires time at the table and strict discipline to the method. The only home runs are on doubles and splits. Otherwise, its a methodical grind up.Bocephus said:Heineken-Ashi said:I did once when hammered at 3 am on a major heater. And it worked. And I've never done it again.bmoochie said:Heineken-Ashi said:
And just like in blackjack, you will come across times when you are betting with house money on high probability winners and might even get a chance to double down. The odds are in your favor. But never ever ever ****ing double down when your hand is 16. Stay consistent and play the smart hand.
I'm more of a splitting 10s guy myself
My second cousin sits on 3rd base and always does it. My father will not play at his table
That's somewhat true, as long as you take all emotion out of it. I've been screwed over by stupid play, gotten mad, etc. But more often than not if I play right I can outlast them all the time with minimal or no losses, while they leave with nothing. I instantly lower my bet to the minimum until I see how the table will play, then adjust accordingly. Like you say with trading, play the swings based on factors that may or may not be in your control, but do it the right way. Do it right and the stupid players often aren't as big a factor as people think. Aside from pissing everyone off.
El Chupacabra said:Heineken-Ashi said:I did once when hammered at 3 am on a major heater. And it worked. And I've never done it again.bmoochie said:Heineken-Ashi said:
And just like in blackjack, you will come across times when you are betting with house money on high probability winners and might even get a chance to double down. The odds are in your favor. But never ever ever ****ing double down when your hand is 16. Stay consistent and play the smart hand.
I'm more of a splitting 10s guy myself
$3/hand black jack in North Dakota is the place to split tens
It's also where the worst players will sit down. I refuse to do the $1-3 dollar tables anywhere. It's literal chaos and you can never get into a groove and play with any consistency that works. Great place to goof off and get drunk, but not to try to walk away with any money. Pretty much applies to the few $5 out there nowadays, and starting to be $10 tables on the strip. I have to start at $15 to find consistency of players, which is key, but during the busiest hours I have to play the greens or blacks.
Enzomatic said:El Chupacabra said:Heineken-Ashi said:I did once when hammered at 3 am on a major heater. And it worked. And I've never done it again.bmoochie said:Heineken-Ashi said:
And just like in blackjack, you will come across times when you are betting with house money on high probability winners and might even get a chance to double down. The odds are in your favor. But never ever ever ****ing double down when your hand is 16. Stay consistent and play the smart hand.
I'm more of a splitting 10s guy myself
$3/hand black jack in North Dakota is the place to split tens
It's also where the worst players will sit down. I refuse to do the $1-3 dollar tables anywhere. It's literal chaos and you can never get into a groove and play with any consistency that works. Great place to goof off and get drunk, but not to try to walk away with any money. Pretty much applies to the few $5 out there nowadays, and starting to be $10 tables on the strip. I have to start at $15 to find consistency of players, which is key, but during the busiest hours I have to play the greens or blacks.
The only reason to play BJ is to goof off and get drunk. ESPECIALLY if you're playing at the holiday inn in Fargo, ND.
Charismatic Megafauna
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Ok since it's the weekend, i was playing free blackjack at a company thing and since I'm a degenerate and it was free i split something dumb and this dude at the table got on me with that "hey man you're stealing his cards" silliness. Now you guys, who i have come to believe are intelligent, logical dudes who have a decent understanding of probabilities, are talking about it. You're saying that in a multi deck game, you honestly believe that me taking an extra card (or two or 3) by splitting does anything to materially change what the following card or two or three will do for your hand?
Not to mention, now that there are automatic shufflers, it makes it less impactful. Wonder if those type of people ever say thanks for taking an extra card when it helps them out.Charismatic Megafauna said:
Ok since it's the weekend, i was playing free blackjack at a company thing and since I'm a degenerate and it was free i split something dumb and this dude at the table got on me with that "hey man you're stealing his cards" silliness. Now you guys, who i have come to believe are intelligent, logical dudes who have a decent understanding of probabilities, are talking about it. You're saying that in a multi deck game, you honestly believe that me taking an extra card (or two or 3) by splitting does anything to materially change what the following card or two or three will do for your hand?
Any craps players here? That game is my jam
Chef Elko said:
Any craps players here? That game is my jam
That's the only game I play!
In a single deck game, I'd be pissed if you hit a 16 with the dealer showing a 5 and ended up getting an ace or face card. Or if you split something stupid.Charismatic Megafauna said:
Ok since it's the weekend, i was playing free blackjack at a company thing and since I'm a degenerate and it was free i split something dumb and this dude at the table got on me with that "hey man you're stealing his cards" silliness. Now you guys, who i have come to believe are intelligent, logical dudes who have a decent understanding of probabilities, are talking about it. You're saying that in a multi deck game, you honestly believe that me taking an extra card (or two or 3) by splitting does anything to materially change what the following card or two or three will do for your hand?
In a multi-deck game, ya, you might take a couple good cards out of the deck, but it doesn't bother me as much.
My strategy is simple. The goal is minimize losses and maximize winnings. Booking profits and letting winners run.
Sit down at the table. Figure out what your personal minimum will be and don't waver from that. Place your min bet. Once you win 3 in a row, you are on a streak. If you are playing $10 hands, you are $30 in the green. Add a chip. If you win, you're $50 in the green. Add a chip. Win, you're $80 in the green. Add a chip. If you win this one, you've booked $120. Pocket it and go back to your starting balance and drop back to minimum bet. Streaks in BJ come to an end and winning more than 6 in a row is extremely rare.
With this strategy, double and splits can be costly, but you are usually getting the chance with house money to use. If you win them, they are extremely profitable. And if at any point within the max 6 hand winning streak you lose the original hand (50% on a split doesn't count), you go back to the min bet. 21 is pure icing on the cake in all of these situations.
And if the table is cold, you came in with a set amount of money to spend. When it's gone it's gone. Can't win them all. But using the 10x of min bet threshold to determine your going in balance, it's pretty hard to lose out if you aren't playing silly or making stupid choices. Tables go from hot to cold all the time. Trying to pick a hot table and jump around when they go cold to new tables.. it's taxing and frankly not fun. Employ this strategy and you will profit immensely when it's hot and lose the minimum when its cold.
Lastly, if you hit 15's and 16's, you ALWAYS hit them unless dealer is showing 2-6. Don't mix up your strategy. Be consistent.
Really the only game to play in a casino if you understand math (lose less money over time than any other game), Card-counters at BlackJack and Inside Info sports betters excluded. It's by far the most fun and interactive experience, as well.ProgN said:Chef Elko said:
Any craps players here? That game is my jam
That's the only game I play!
I play the pass line, and then a couple come bets, always with full odds. Then a few 6 and 8 place bets if I feel like it. Theoretical loss is less than 1% of amounts bet. BJ is 2%ish, Video poker can be 2%ish, Roulette 5%+, Slots 7-10%.
You?
I bleed maroon said:Really the only game to play in a casino if you understand math (lose less money over time than any other game), Card-counters at BlackJack and Inside Info sports betters excluded. It's by far the most fun and interactive experience, as well.ProgN said:Chef Elko said:
Any craps players here? That game is my jam
That's the only game I play!
I play the pass line, and then a couple come bets, always with full odds. Then a few 6 and 8 place bets if I feel like it. Theoretical loss is less than 1% of amounts bet. BJ is 2%ish, Video poker can be 2%ish, Roulette 5%+, Slots 7-10%.
You?
I only play craps and I play it all, except the Field bets because it's a sucker's bet. I even play them little dollar bet MFers in the middle of the table. Last time I was in Vegas, I put $2 for the dealers that pays huge but you have to roll all the numbers. I always have the dealers play with me with my tip. They like it, especially that night because I hit all 12 numbers and they got paid off that $2 bet. The whole table erupted, including the pit boss and dealers. It was fun. If the table is hot, I play the pass, 5,6,8,9 with odds. If it goes cold, I'll lay the 4 and 10. I banked one night just laying the 4 and 10 but you can't celebrate because everyone loses as you rake in chips.
Craps has the best odds in the house and the constant action and different ways to bet are perfect for my ADHD ass.
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Ok since it's the weekend, i was playing free blackjack at a company thing and since I'm a degenerate and it was free i split something dumb and this dude at the table got on me with that "hey man you're stealing his cards" silliness. Now you guys, who i have come to believe are intelligent, logical dudes who have a decent understanding of probabilities, are talking about it. You're saying that in a multi deck game, you honestly believe that me taking an extra card (or two or 3) by splitting does anything to materially change what the following card or two or three will do for your hand?
Yes. Absolutely.
khkman22 said:Not to mention, now that there are automatic shufflers, it makes it less impactful. Wonder if those type of people ever say thanks for taking an extra card when it helps them out.Charismatic Megafauna said:
Ok since it's the weekend, i was playing free blackjack at a company thing and since I'm a degenerate and it was free i split something dumb and this dude at the table got on me with that "hey man you're stealing his cards" silliness. Now you guys, who i have come to believe are intelligent, logical dudes who have a decent understanding of probabilities, are talking about it. You're saying that in a multi deck game, you honestly believe that me taking an extra card (or two or 3) by splitting does anything to materially change what the following card or two or three will do for your hand?
I will never play at a table with one of those. Changes the odds dramatically towards the house.