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ProgN
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AgCPA95 said:

ProgN said:

Anyone see some AH news on SMCI? It just launched higher in the last 5 mins.
Guidance raised for 2Q (they have 6/30 year-end so 2Q is 4Q for calendar year companies)

Rev 3.6-3.65 Billion
EPS $4.90 - $5.05 per share

Average estimate per analyst was $4.52.
bmoochie
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AG
What are you referring to when you say 5 minute flashes? What indicator are you using. Thanks in advance!
ProgN
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bmoochie said:

What are you referring to when you say 5 minute flashes? What indicator are you using. Thanks in advance!
For my buys and sells, I use the 5D 5min intraday chart on TOS, with RSI and MACD. When the RSI, goes below 30 it turns green and gets my attention. Then I watch the MACD directly below it to see when the bright red bars change to dim red and rounding back up. That's when I'll buy because it's what has worked for me. You do the opposite when RSI is above 70, turns red and the MACD bright green bars turn dull green and turning over.
bmoochie
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AG
Bless you sir. I've never really understood MACD so haven't really used it.
ProgN
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bmoochie said:

Bless you sir. I've never really understood MACD so haven't really used it.
It and RSI are my two faves.
El_duderino
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For the more experienced folks here, what methods would you lean towards to grow a small $1000 account? Scalping options? Trading low priced stocks such as Fubo or Lyft that Heineken mentioned? Etc?

ProgN
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El_duderino said:

For the more experienced folks here, what methods would you lean towards to grow a small $1000 account? Scalping options? Trading low priced stocks such as Fubo or Lyft that Heineken mentioned? Etc?


I'm not advocating for you to do it, but I'd buy mid-Feb to March SPY puts and trade those, but it's risky and you will either blow up your account or compound it quickly.
Heineken-Ashi
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El_duderino said:

For the more experienced folks here, what methods would you lean towards to grow a small $1000 account? Scalping options? Trading low priced stocks such as Fubo or Lyft that Heineken mentioned? Etc?


Unless you really understand the greeks and how to pick timing on options, scalps are a complete gamble. Would not recommend it.

Never scalp anything you aren't willing to completely lose immediately. Should be for play money only. And a tiny % of your account value.

Buying cheap stocks at support levels when indicators are flashing oversold and selling when indicators are flashing overbought at resistance levels is a great way, but its not fast. Use stops. And don't buy a small cap when IWM is in a downtrend unless it has clearly bounced off support. Watch IWM on the same timeframe you are watching the stock you bought and if IWM gets overbought before your stock does, consider selling your stock because weakness in the broad market can lead to weakness in everything.

Look up OCO brackets and learn how to set orders with them. Takes all the headache away as the buyer order will trigger an open of both a sell at target order and a sell at stop order. If one of the sell orders is hit, the other is cancelled automatically.
BlueTaze
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ProgN said:

bmoochie said:

What are you referring to when you say 5 minute flashes? What indicator are you using. Thanks in advance!
For my buys and sells, I use the 5D 5min intraday chart on TOS, with RSI and MACD. When the RSI, goes below 30 it turns green and gets my attention. Then I watch the MACD directly below it to see when the bright red bars change to dim red and rounding back up. That's when I'll buy because it's what has worked for me. You do the opposite when RSI is above 70, turns red and the MACD bright green bars turn dull green and turning over.


I would also add the horizontal VWAP bars along the Y axis of your chart. Provides additional support and resistance levels at those price shelves where majority of participants hold positions.

Also, to add to H-Ashi's trading tips, you could sell vertical credit spreads 20-30 days out at same entry and exit points. Sell OTM call above resistance, buy cheaper further OTM call. Sell OTM put below support, buy cheaper further OTM put. Set stops, and let volatility and time decay pocketing the diff in premiums.
ProgN
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VWAP is very useful too.
El_duderino
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All great points and suggestions. I appreciate the different angles to approach an account of this small size. (There's also the option to just move it into VOO and forget about it, but that's no fun and I'm here to learn and improve with trading)

ProgN
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El_duderino said:

All great points and suggestions. I appreciate the different angles to approach an account of this small size. (There's also the option to just move it into VOO and forget about it, but that's no fun and I'm here to learn and improve with trading)


Also consider waiting until $U hits $25 or better and put it all into $U. I'll post when I re-enter it in that range. You have time to try to get your account up to $2,500 so you can buy 100 shrs. That would be a good move and profitable, imho.
El_duderino
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Very good point Prog and would be a low risk strategy by selling covered calls. The hurdle now is to reach that level in the account.
ProgN
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El_duderino said:

Very good point Prog and would be a low risk strategy by selling covered calls. The hurdle now is to reach that level in the account.
Exactly, plus I've traded it from the $25ish range and sold in the $37-39ish range several times, but I recommend you get your account in the $2,500+ range so you can get 100 and be able to write CCs if you desire to.
ProgN
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bmoochie said:

Bless you sir. I've never really understood MACD so haven't really used it.
Trying to post it, give me a few to keep trying.

F it, can't figure it out.
SAag1113
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AG
You'll win at trading options as long as you don't care. As soon as you get some gains you'll manage your risk too tight and start to lose. Revenge trade to try and make your money back and then lose everything.

Advice is to trade the options that never expire…..stocks

Test of time truth is you will never outperform the market long term. You can catch a heater, but the market consistently changes and crushes all strategies.
ProgN
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SAag1113 said:

You'll win at trading options as long as you don't care. As soon as you get some gains you'll manage your risk too tight and start to lose. Revenge trade to try and make your money back and then lose everything.

Advice is to trade the options that never expire…..stocks

Test of time truth is you will never outperform the market long term. You can catch a heater, but the market consistently changes and crushes all strategies.
I agree that people should choose stocks over gambling with options, but please be more specific regarding the bolded parts.

Are you saying that mutual funds, ETFs, etc. provide greater returns over actively managing your own portfolio? If so, does that mean for everyone?

Is the market crushing all strategies option strategies or all individual strategies, stocks/bonds/options?
Heineken-Ashi
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SAag1113 said:

You'll win at trading options as long as you don't care. As soon as you get some gains you'll manage your risk too tight and start to lose. Revenge trade to try and make your money back and then lose everything.

Advice is to trade the options that never expire…..stocks

Test of time truth is you will never outperform the market long term. You can catch a heater, but the market consistently changes and crushes all strategies.
Not true at all. But some truth in it. It's so ridiculously cliche that I don't want to say it.. but it takes TIME and EXPERIENCE to be a good trader. And no strategy out there will work better for you than the one you develop for yourself after reading, learning, testing, winning, losing, REALLY losing, refining, reading, learning, adapting, and then narrowing down to the things your brain can understand and focus on.

I'm scattered brained as hell. It wasn't until I filtered out the noise that I really started to improve. News, media, youtube videos, interviews on CNBC with "experts", all the noise. None of it matters. None of it helps you. Focusing on what the FED will do and who's squawking today and what Biden said and what Trump said and what some CEO said and what country attacked another. It doesn't matter. If you are waiting for those things to verify the trades you're making, YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE. The end. So roll your money into Vanguard which will also lose when the broader market loses and you can all lose together and focus on politics, media, and news.

Instead, take the time to learn. Figure out what works for you. I came onto this thread with beer candles. Why? Because it's a strategy that worked for me, and at the time, everyone here was day trading. Beer candles help you see the trend through the noise and know when its slowing or ending. It's an approach that works for me in small timeframes. I use it in tandem with multiple other things that I've learned over many years. The indicators on my charts right now are 100% different than the ones from 3 years ago. Because those were noise. And the ones now are the ones that match my trading style.

And it's so easy to back test. Especially on TOS. You can go back in time and trade live with $100k. You can try things you might not have the capability to. Do it. Why have access to such incredible free and painless pathways to gaining experience, and never use them? Because you're ancy and what to make it happen now? It won't happen now if you aren't prepared, organized, focused on a set strategy, and able to cancel out the noise.
Heineken-Ashi
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And do what Prog says. Unless he loses. Then throw rocks at him.
ProgN
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Heineken-Ashi said:

SAag1113 said:

You'll win at trading options as long as you don't care. As soon as you get some gains you'll manage your risk too tight and start to lose. Revenge trade to try and make your money back and then lose everything.

Advice is to trade the options that never expire…..stocks

Test of time truth is you will never outperform the market long term. You can catch a heater, but the market consistently changes and crushes all strategies.
Not true at all. But some truth in it. It's so ridiculously cliche that I don't want to say it.. but it takes TIME and EXPERIENCE to be a good trader. And no strategy out there will work better for you than the one you develop for yourself after reading, learning, testing, winning, losing, REALLY losing, refining, reading, learning, adapting, and then narrowing down to the things your brain can understand and focus on.

I'm scattered brained as hell. It wasn't until I filtered out the noise that I really started to improve. News, media, youtube videos, interviews on CNBC with "experts", all the noise. None of it matters. None of it helps you. Focusing on what the FED will do and who's squawking today and what Biden said and what Trump said and what some CEO said and what country attacked another. It doesn't matter. If you are waiting for those things to verify the trades you're making, YOU ARE GOING TO LOSE. The end. So roll your money into Vanguard which will also lose when the broader market loses and you can all lose together and focus on politics, media, and news.

Instead, take the time to learn. Figure out what works for you. I came onto this thread with beer candles. Why? Because it's a strategy that worked for me, and at the time, everyone here was day trading. Beer candles help you see the trend through the noise and know when its slowing or ending. It's an approach that works for me in small timeframes. I use it in tandem with multiple other things that I've learned over many years. The indicators on my charts right now are 100% different than the ones from 3 years ago. Because those were noise. And the ones now are the ones that match my trading style.

And it's so easy to back test. Especially on TOS. You can go back in time and trade live with $100k. You can try things you might not have the capability to. Do it. Why have access to such incredible free and painless pathways to gaining experience, and never use them? Because you're ancy and what to make it happen now? It won't happen now if you aren't prepared, organized, focused on a set strategy, and able to cancel out the noise.

The bolded part is dead balls on accurate. I've honed my skills by learning from my mistakes going on 3 decades and as I've posted on this thread in the past, I've blown up my account about 10 times and had to start over, but I learned from it. That's why I like questions on this thread because I don't want new investors/traders to step on the landmines I did and blowup their accounts. I hope they can benefit from my past mistakes without the pain.

That's also why I asked him for clarification of what he was implying because I didn't want to assume he was discounting individual control and ownership of their own financial. I get pissed when random posters have popped into the thread in the past, usually during violent corrections, to pile on people learning and facing the pain to say that they'll never beat a f'ing index fund.

1) They couldn't be more f'ing wrong and it only dissuades inexperienced individuals from learning a new path that will benefit their families.

2) I'm sick of it and can shove their arrogance right up their condescending asses with proof.

SAag1113 I was not assuming that was what you were doing but that is why I asked for clarification.

Rant over
ProgN
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Heineken-Ashi said:

And do what Prog says. Unless he loses. Then throw rocks at him.
That made me laugh.
SAag1113
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AG
I'm not trying to rain on any parades. I've only been trading for a little less than 10 years. I've tried all of the strategies and blown up accounts. I was just saying long term it is tough to beat an index fund. It's just one book but the intelligent Investor proves that point. 2023 S&P rose over 24% so to beat that after being taxed on short term cap gains is pretty impressive. To do that year over year is even more so.

I am yet to see someone (legitimately) show a long term profitability of trading options to do it. Especially the last 2 years of seeing so many traders fade away is telling. Seems every month another discord disappears

With that being said I love to trade. Always open to new strategies, that's why I'm reading this thread. Obviously many people on here have been very successful.



Heineken-Ashi
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SAag1113 said:

I'm not trying to rain on any parades. I've only been trading for a little less than 10 years. I've tried all of the strategies and blown up accounts. I was just saying long term it is tough to beat an index fund. It's just one book but the intelligent Investor proves that point. 2023 S&P rose over 24% so to beat that after being taxed on short term cap gains is pretty impressive. To do that year over year is even more so.

I am yet to see someone (legitimately) show a long term profitability of trading options to do it. Especially the last 2 years of seeing so many traders fade away is telling. Seems every month another discord disappears

With that being said I love to trade. Always open to new strategies, that's why I'm reading this thread. Obviously many people on here have been very successful.
You've been trading in the most parabolic boom of all time. That's all that says.

This is you between the walls of the blue.



But notice the red arrows? Had you invested in 1999 in SPX or something mimicking it, you wouldn't have been back to break even until 2013. Yes, 13 years. And in inflation adjusted terms, it would have been 2015 thanks to the cash printer.

If you invested in January 2000, your inflation-adjusted annual return of SPX including re-invested dividends, would only be 6% per year in 2023. Maybe a little higher now.

S&P 500 Returns since 2000 (officialdata.org)

Last year I started a new cash account for my son that he can't touch until 18. Wanted something I could actively trade with and grow faster than his other accounts that are more limiting. Put $3k in it. At the end of the year it was $4.3k. 43% gain. And I was extremely limited with what I could do or else it likely would have been better. Majority of it was selling a put and getting assigned at the bottom for CLF and selling after the recent pop. Buying MARA in the $8's on negative divergence and spotting a bullish setup with BTC looking promising. And I've made premium on that one and will be holding it for the next run up. Account was up FAR more when it was at $30. Bought REI on oversold indicators at $1.75 and sold on overbought at $1.99. Sold a handful of puts and bought them back for $0.05. Short round trip on AMD during earnings boom. Sold RC for the same price I bought it for but got 3 dividends in the process. Handful of small gains and small stops. Goal for this year is the same % gain or better. Off to a good start. And beating the market.

tlh3842
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AG
ProgN said:

El_duderino said:

For the more experienced folks here, what methods would you lean towards to grow a small $1000 account? Scalping options? Trading low priced stocks such as Fubo or Lyft that Heineken mentioned? Etc?


I'm not advocating for you to do it, but I'd buy mid-Feb to March SPY puts and trade those, but it's risky and you will either blow up your account or compound it quickly.

Any SPY numbers you'd target for this? Got a couple $ burning a hole in my pocket haha
gggmann
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AG
El_duderino said:

For the more experienced folks here, what methods would you lean towards to grow a small $1000 account? Scalping options? Trading low priced stocks such as Fubo or Lyft that Heineken mentioned? Etc?




This is not financial advice, just my thoughts on a what if....

First, I'd figure out a way to contribute a sizeable amount every month. That will grow a small account faster than anything. I'd put half of my $ in SPY and continue contributing until I get 100 shares and then start selling CCs. If you're too impatient then you could look at IWM as it is cheaper.

That aside I'd find a low price stock that I like and look at either vertical credit spreads or poor man's covered calls. FYI, two lower price stocks I have active trades on now are PLTR and SOFI, but don't trade a stock just because someone else is. Do your own research.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
SAVE $7 in pre...
ProgN
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SAag1113 said:

I'm not trying to rain on any parades. I've only been trading for a little less than 10 years. I've tried all of the strategies and blown up accounts. I was just saying long term it is tough to beat an index fund. It's just one book but the intelligent Investor proves that point. 2023 S&P rose over 24% so to beat that after being taxed on short term cap gains is pretty impressive. To do that year over year is even more so.

I am yet to see someone (legitimately) show a long term profitability of trading options to do it. Especially the last 2 years of seeing so many traders fade away is telling. Seems every month another discord disappears

With that being said I love to trade. Always open to new strategies, that's why I'm reading this thread. Obviously many people on here have been very successful.




Then stop telling people they can't outperform the indexes. I hate doing this because it seems like I'm bragging but I'm not, I'm just rubbing your nose in your own mess. I opened a custodial account for my son 5 years ago last month, when he was 3 yo. It's only at Ed Jones because I'm an older dad and if something happens to me then I know he's protected. His mother and I were going through a contentious divorce at the time and I didn't want her to meet some wall street bets dip**** and have her transfer it out and he trade it to zero. The following was grown with zero options, just stocks and paying a commission per trade.

SAag1113
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AG
I said trading options btw

You are trading stocks and leveraging options to protect your investment. That is a good return, but simply investing in S&P over that same time ~2664 -> 4783 would have had a better return .
FJ43
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Solid brother. Beyond solid.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

ProgN
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SAag1113 said:

I said trading options btw

You are trading stocks and leveraging options to protect your investment. That is a good return, but simply investing in S&P over that same time ~2664 -> 4783 would have had a better return .
FYI, you can't buy any options at Ed Jones, not even write covered calls. Those returns are done without margin and in stock trades only.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
SAag1113 said:

simply investing in S&P over that same time ~2664 -> 4783 would have had a better return .

Uh, no. 76% annualized return on 2664 for 5 years is 44,988
SAag1113
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AG
lol just saw that.
ProgN
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tlh3842 said:

ProgN said:

El_duderino said:

For the more experienced folks here, what methods would you lean towards to grow a small $1000 account? Scalping options? Trading low priced stocks such as Fubo or Lyft that Heineken mentioned? Etc?


I'm not advocating for you to do it, but I'd buy mid-Feb to March SPY puts and trade those, but it's risky and you will either blow up your account or compound it quickly.

Any SPY numbers you'd target for this? Got a couple $ burning a hole in my pocket haha
If you want to gamble, I like the 2/16 $475p less than $5.
EnronAg
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AG
SPY filled yesterday's gap...time to rocket ship again
bmoochie
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AG
ummm. bye bye SMCI
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