ProgN's outlook is my alternate if the primary fails. That's why my stop is where it is and very important.tlh3842 said:ProgN said:$HTZ is dumping EVs for ICE vehicles. They were going to buy a fton of Teslas. Public adoption of EVs has dropped dramatically and growth of numerous competitors are significant headwinds. I'd avoid it personally, but that doesn't mean short it or buy puts. I think it'll print below $150/shr and then it'd start to get my attention. JMOjoekm3 said:
TSLA is under $230.
Wow, much more different (at least price wise) perspective than Heineken
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Last: 18 hrs ago by jamey
Outlook on UNFI still the same and looking for an uptick in volume in the coming weeks leading up to earnings report on 3/6?
That's what makes the market and this thread so incredible. The market has so many ever changing variables and moving parts that can change on a dime. It's perfect for my ADHD ass because it's like playing chess on a rollercoaster daily, even when the markets are closed.tlh3842 said:ProgN said:$HTZ is dumping EVs for ICE vehicles. They were going to buy a fton of Teslas. Public adoption of EVs has dropped dramatically and growth of numerous competitors are significant headwinds. I'd avoid it personally, but that doesn't mean short it or buy puts. I think it'll print below $150/shr and then it'd start to get my attention. JMOjoekm3 said:
TSLA is under $230.
Wow, much different (at least price wise) perspective than Heineken
I also like that this thread isn't an echo chamber because differing opinions will help everyone grow for the better. I sometimes will have tunnel vision, as you (everyone) will too. I like it when Heine, 30K, OA, Goug, or anyone else posts what they see and it's contrary to what I assumed. It makes me go look at those stocks from a differing perspective and whether I agree or disagree doesn't matter, I always learn something that makes me a better trader.
If you notice when Heineken, me or others post moves we're making or looking at, we don't post in absolutes or guarantees. That's because no one can unless they have insider information and I'm too old to go to prison. If anyone that's not an insider speaks in absolutes or guarantees, take the opposite and you'll profit more times than if you follow their rec. We all know the dip**** at the bar that has the hot stock tip. LOL
Trust me boys, there are plenty of lurkers that truly appreciate all those that share perspectives. Keep it coming.
For my part, I work in IT and see some swings. But I always have a hard time translating what I see on the street with the way a stock price will behave. Sentinel One is a good example. My security sales specialist was hyping them to me but he bought too early. Got impatient and moved his cash out. I bought a little later and am way up.
Could never have shared that sequence with this board in good faith. Just anecdotal crap unfortunately. Which is why I dig those of y'all that are surveying and analyzing at a much more detailed level.
For my part, I work in IT and see some swings. But I always have a hard time translating what I see on the street with the way a stock price will behave. Sentinel One is a good example. My security sales specialist was hyping them to me but he bought too early. Got impatient and moved his cash out. I bought a little later and am way up.
Could never have shared that sequence with this board in good faith. Just anecdotal crap unfortunately. Which is why I dig those of y'all that are surveying and analyzing at a much more detailed level.
El_duderino said:
Outlook on UNFI still the same and looking for an uptick in volume in the coming weeks leading up to earnings report on 3/6?
I honestly hate the chart. It's ugly.i don't even really trust it. But the original thesis lives. Low risk high reward. Just like we like it.
I concur with low risk high reward. The bollies are getting tight and it's in a prolonged Darvis box. IMO it's coiling and sellers have dried up. Focus on the RSI, when it hits a higher low than the previous low that's when I'd start nibbling on it. It's not exciting to follow because it's basing but making a good ROI is never boring.Heineken-Ashi said:El_duderino said:
Outlook on UNFI still the same and looking for an uptick in volume in the coming weeks leading up to earnings report on 3/6?
I honestly hate the chart. It's ugly.i don't even really trust it. But the original thesis lives. Low risk high reward. Just like we like it.
I started nibbling a bit last week. Currently sitting on 60 shares @ $15.73.
Probably not the best entry, but hey.
Probably not the best entry, but hey.
It's not a bad entry and I don't think you put yourself at risk, but you'll have to be patient. I don't think it's going to move as fast as you'd like, think watching paint dry, but I see it producing a good return for you with minimal risk. JMOBrian Earl Spilner said:
I started nibbling a bit last week. Currently sitting on 60 shares @ $15.73.
Probably not the best entry, but hey.
I also opened a position on BRKB, so I'm in no hurry.
Patience is key especially right now. I'm still north of 75% cash in all accounts I run. Do I wish I would've rode the recent SMCI and PANW run, yes, but cash is better than being a bag holder and locked up. Opportunities will happen and I'm ready to take advantage when it's time.Brian Earl Spilner said:
I also opened a position on BRKB, so I'm in no hurry.
I always post when stocks are approaching my purchase range. I post when I buy them and sell them at the same time that I make a move. FTR, the stocks I trade are too large for anyone to think I front run them. I believe in transparency. Like I said to a poster last month, RavingAg iirc, I don't daytrade and only do around 20-25 trades a year, but it's been very successful for me.
That was me--always learn from you guys and getting ready to dip my toes in the water slowly on a few.
I laughed when I saw Heineken mention the four market drivers: sentiment, greed, fear and stupidity, as I have made some trades based on all four at once. I feel like with the tools here, I can explore some ideas and start actually making good decisions and that lead to good results at some point.
Q: how do you guys track your strategies? A simple spreadsheet? and if so, what are the columns, i.e. ticker, entry range target secondary target and stop? Are there other factors you track such as the pattern you see and data points around them?
With the 15 -20 Heineken is tracking on this thread I'm trying this time to follow along systematically...
I laughed when I saw Heineken mention the four market drivers: sentiment, greed, fear and stupidity, as I have made some trades based on all four at once. I feel like with the tools here, I can explore some ideas and start actually making good decisions and that lead to good results at some point.
Q: how do you guys track your strategies? A simple spreadsheet? and if so, what are the columns, i.e. ticker, entry range target secondary target and stop? Are there other factors you track such as the pattern you see and data points around them?
With the 15 -20 Heineken is tracking on this thread I'm trying this time to follow along systematically...
YUM! I love analyst downgrades. They often precede the actual reverse expectation happening. But I do hope this one causes a selloff. This chart is yummy if we can get a better entry in the $120 to $125 range. $121.88 is an open gap that I expect to get targeted. Price target is a fairly small range.. $145-$150. Funny enough, $150 was the Wells Fargo target they just backed off on when they announced new target of $135.
This is like most of ours.. I could make up a stop here, certainly the last low could work at $114.92. But I don't like potentially losing $$5-$10 per share. Maybe it's just me. So like others on the list, we're going to let it play out and see if it comes into our target zone. If it does, we will wait for it to find that support and THEN buy, placing stop immediately below. With only $25-$30 per share upside on $120-$125 spend, our reward isn't great from a % standpoint. But if the play sets up as expected, it is PHENOMANEL measured against the risk. Yes, you have to spend $120 per share. But when your potential lost is pennies to a couple dollars at worst, that $25-$30 starts to look better doesn't it? No fundamentals here. Just waiting for the setup. Set your alerts from price under $130 and then a second one for under $126. Then watch for that bottom. If it dips below $120, it could still work out, but I fear upside would lower as well and I would lose confidence. So this only makes the list if it holds $120.
And for all the lurkers wondering.. most of this list was given with expected target range. I wish I could have put out a list of trades to buy on Jan 1 and sell at target. But this is a year where we started overheated. I have to be careful from a risk/reward standpoint. Some of these might not trigger for months. Some might not trigger at all (CRM, bro, can you please come down a little?). This was always meant to be a low risk high reward list. That takes time to develop to make sure we don't faceplant.
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Staples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
ASO - Consumer Discretionary - Retail
U - Tech - Software
FUBO - Communications - Sports/Streaming
YUM - Consumer Discretionary - Franchise restaurants
This is like most of ours.. I could make up a stop here, certainly the last low could work at $114.92. But I don't like potentially losing $$5-$10 per share. Maybe it's just me. So like others on the list, we're going to let it play out and see if it comes into our target zone. If it does, we will wait for it to find that support and THEN buy, placing stop immediately below. With only $25-$30 per share upside on $120-$125 spend, our reward isn't great from a % standpoint. But if the play sets up as expected, it is PHENOMANEL measured against the risk. Yes, you have to spend $120 per share. But when your potential lost is pennies to a couple dollars at worst, that $25-$30 starts to look better doesn't it? No fundamentals here. Just waiting for the setup. Set your alerts from price under $130 and then a second one for under $126. Then watch for that bottom. If it dips below $120, it could still work out, but I fear upside would lower as well and I would lose confidence. So this only makes the list if it holds $120.
And for all the lurkers wondering.. most of this list was given with expected target range. I wish I could have put out a list of trades to buy on Jan 1 and sell at target. But this is a year where we started overheated. I have to be careful from a risk/reward standpoint. Some of these might not trigger for months. Some might not trigger at all (CRM, bro, can you please come down a little?). This was always meant to be a low risk high reward list. That takes time to develop to make sure we don't faceplant.
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Staples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
ASO - Consumer Discretionary - Retail
U - Tech - Software
FUBO - Communications - Sports/Streaming
YUM - Consumer Discretionary - Franchise restaurants
Another chart I like. LYFT. We're targeting entry between $11 and $12, and it's not far off. We have a gap fill recently with expected selloff. Didn't quite complete a cup. Just like post above, we will look for bottom and place stop immediately below, because we don't want to get caught in the potential next leg of a renewed downtrend. But if it holds in that range, our bare minimum target is $18 cup. If we're lucky, we will get the $21.50 cup. The plan here will be one of three strategies and you will have to decide for yourself what you want, because we know cups get handles and sometimes even never get back. All plans assume entry at $12 though we will hope to get lower. And if you want to buy here and risk over $2 per share before stopped, feel free. Up to you.
Also, earnings Feb 7. Would be great to bottom before and get a rocket.
1. Sell all at $18 cup - minimum 1.5X return.
2. Sell all at $21.50 cup - minimum 1.79x return
3. Sell enough to get original outlay back at minimum cup (wouldn't take my chance with this approach waiting for bigger cup). This approach would likely also come with selling some calls at $18 cup if you have enough of a position to not risk all remaining shares. This strategy is designed to form up a risk-free position should LYFT decide to targe that MASSIVE gap all the way to $30.
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Staples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
ASO - Consumer Discretionary - Retail
U - Tech - Software
FUBO - Communications - Sports/Streaming
YUM - Consumer Discretionary - Franchise restaurants
LYFT - Industrials - Transportation rideshare
Also, earnings Feb 7. Would be great to bottom before and get a rocket.
1. Sell all at $18 cup - minimum 1.5X return.
2. Sell all at $21.50 cup - minimum 1.79x return
3. Sell enough to get original outlay back at minimum cup (wouldn't take my chance with this approach waiting for bigger cup). This approach would likely also come with selling some calls at $18 cup if you have enough of a position to not risk all remaining shares. This strategy is designed to form up a risk-free position should LYFT decide to targe that MASSIVE gap all the way to $30.
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Staples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
ASO - Consumer Discretionary - Retail
U - Tech - Software
FUBO - Communications - Sports/Streaming
YUM - Consumer Discretionary - Franchise restaurants
LYFT - Industrials - Transportation rideshare
Cool, and to answer your question I guess I'm like that line in a movie, 'Lonesome Dove' iirc, when the young bull says to the old bull that they should go down and **** the best one and the old bull says let's mosey down and **** them all. I don't use a spreadsheet, I use discipline and results.ravingfans said:
That was me--always learn from you guys and getting ready to dip my toes in the water slowly on a few.
I laughed when I saw Heineken mention the four market drivers: sentiment, greed, fear and stupidity, as I have made some trades based on all four at once. I feel like with the tools here, I can explore some ideas and start actually making good decisions and that lead to good results at some point.
Q: how do you guys track your strategies? A simple spreadsheet? and if so, what are the columns, i.e. ticker, entry range target secondary target and stop? Are there other factors you track such as the pattern you see and data points around them?
With the 15 -20 Heineken is tracking on this thread I'm trying this time to follow along systematically...
I only actively follow 20-30 stocks daily and become very familiar with them which leads to their trading patterns. This helps me anticipate how they'll react technically and cyclically during the year. This method has increased my successes and decreased guessing/hoping/gambling. This is what I've formulated for myself and has produced positive results for me. I'll buy when my favorite indicators reinforce what I want to do, and I will sell or bank the loss when they tell me that I should cut bait. Cutting bait and booking a loss is still the most difficult because of pride. No one wants to admit failure, but pride will run a train on your ass and blow up your account.
If anyone wants it, I will provide a list of stocks on my primary watchlist that I actively follow with the caveat that you know it doesn't mean I'm buying it. I will post when I buy an sell, but everyone makes there own financial decisions. I will also post when I add/delete stocks to my focus list.
I'm on a roll tonight. Here's a cheapy for those of you who don't like my lavish taste for the expensive plays. And trust me, I'm not bullish on this company or this industry. But a good setup is a good setup. Remember, it's only when you remove your bias and linear thinking that you can truly take the next step as a trader. Here we have beaten down in a back alley REE, a rare blend of the tech and EV space. Take one look at the daily dating back to late October and draw a trendline of bottoms and tell me you don't see what I see. We're playing another cup here. This is a buy RIGHT NOW, though it could come down a little after today's jump. Stop is a break of the trendline. So you draw it and hold yourself accountable. If it breached tomorrow, it's in the high $4's. Will be $5 late next week. We're going to set a minimum target of $9.00, and if it gets there, know that you need to be on high alert and have your stop at a point where you are happy if it gets hit. That is a 100% move of the last move up from the December low. Things that fail after triggering usually do so around that point. Our ideal target though is $13.25-$13.75, the upper end being the cup fill. I don't care about upside above that. I'll be out if it hits.
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Staples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
ASO - Consumer Discretionary - Retail
U - Tech - Software
FUBO - Communications - Sports/Streaming
YUM - Consumer Discretionary - Franchise restaurants
LYFT - Industrials - Transportation Rideshare
REE - Consumer Discretionary - EV Tech
Running list
OXY - Energy - O&G
SMCI - Tech - Hardware
AMD - Tech - Semiconductor
CRM - Tech - Software
CXM - Tech - Software
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury ETF
NOV - Energy - Equipment and Technology
TSLA - Consumer Discretionary - EV
TSN - Consumer Staples - Food
WHD - Energy - Equipment sales and rentals
UNFI - Consumer Staples - Distributor
MLCO - Consumer Discretionary - Gaming & Hospitality
DOW - Materials - Chemical
ASO - Consumer Discretionary - Retail
U - Tech - Software
FUBO - Communications - Sports/Streaming
YUM - Consumer Discretionary - Franchise restaurants
LYFT - Industrials - Transportation Rideshare
REE - Consumer Discretionary - EV Tech
That would be much appreciated as someone who's trying to learn and get into trading.
In on TSLA with stop at pre market low. Already gap filled from the open. Was that the bottom this morning? We shall see
here we go...filled the overnight gap...time to rocket on that cool PPI data...bombing Yemen be damn...this market stops for nothing...
Bought TSLA yesterday and stopped out this morning. Booked a loss. Would you get back in and give it another try?
I bought at $220.61 at the open with stop just below pre market low. $222 range right now, so good risk reward. Up to you.joekm3 said:
Bought TSLA yesterday and stopped out this morning. Booked a loss. Would you get back in and give it another try?
Wow, apparently everybody hates MARA now.
Do not move stop for TSLA lower than today's low. Prog's $150 target picks up steam if we break todays low.
it went parabolic. When the sell off happens they usually happen equally opposite.South Platte said:
Wow, apparently everybody hates MARA now.
Dead TSLA. Bummer. was worth the risk. Lost less than $100.
Can still get to TSLA $300 this year. But $150-$175 is firmly on the table. Chart is kind of a mess now with break of support. Meaning I don't know when this bottoms for a potential entry to $300. If you want to take a chance at some point, go for it. But I can't recommend it with such wide swings of possibilities and next stop so far below. Going to remove from list.
Ready to buy MARA between $17 and $18. Kind of a falling knife right now so this is a front run attempt. If it goes lower to $15 I will buy more.
How long do we ride CORQZ?
This is not a 24 play. This is more strategic for me. They are one of the top miners and are coming out of bankruptcy. Early shareholders stayed in despite all the trouble. Once they come out, which should be soon, and after the split, I think interest will flow back and in and more eyes will turn to them. Balance sheet will improve. I'm going to be a dip buyer if it doesn't hold today's low.joekm3 said:
How long do we ride CORQZ?
Edit to add: Like all miners, will be subject to whatever BTC is doing. If BTC dips, miners will dip. BTC explodes, miners will explode.
What's your take on the halving event?
Guessing my short 25 calls won't get exercised today...Heineken-Ashi said:
Ready to buy MARA between $17 and $18. Kind of a falling knife right now so this is a front run attempt. If it goes lower to $15 I will buy more.
Charismatic Megafauna said:
Sava ran today, and closed above the magical 26.4 price that somehow impacts the warrants (which doubled today). I think I'm going to exercise my warrants to get the bonus shares but it looks like I'll have to call fidelity to do that. Anybody looked into it yet?
I was looking at exercising my warrants today but it appears to me that if I sell the warrants and just buy the stock, I'll come out ahead. Am I missing something?
I had a pretty awesome trade on NUGT this week. In 30.70, out 32.50.
I jumped in at $1.24 today! Will follow closely.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Yeah the math right now seems to favor selling the warrants and buying the shares, and you could probably sell the warrants then wait and get an even better entry for the shares, but i think the conscientious investor assumes that the shorts are buying warrants as insurance to be able to cover at $22/shr, so instead you exercise the warrants to demand the shares they represent. Not sure I'm willing to make that donation to the cause, but i probably will
Charismatic Megafauna
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Is there not support in the 212-215 range?
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